[1magine]

Things are bad. RIM is as beat up as it can be. It has no credibility. No one thinks it can come back. It is a desperate situation.

If I ran RIM, I would take a page from Cortez's handbook and burn my ships. When Cortez set out to conquer the Aztec empire, legend has it that he had his troops go ashore and then burned the ships. Why? This showed that there was no turning back. Either Cortez and his men would be successful or they would all die. There was no going back.

If I ran RIM, I would publicly announce a BB10 release date. I would advertise it. I would stake my reputation and my company's reputation on it. I would give employees stock options contingent on meeting that deadline. I would promise termination if that deadline was not met. I would resign if that deadline was not met.

We cannot have another RIM delay and the same kind of general deadline. Pick a date and stick to it, come or high water. Motivate the entire company to succeed and punish everyone if you fail!

Wish I could give more than one thankyou or like.

[kbz1960]

OK, then the question is:

Imagine that the OS turns out to be just great, complete, with no missing pieces, no bugs, with competitive content, etc., which may be quite an unrealistic assumption.

How much of the market share do you think BB10 will gain within a year after it debuts? How many BB10 phones do you think they'll sell? What will the margin and revenue from BB10 phones be?

What were the answers when android first came out?

[BlackBerry Guy]

Apple was down once and had nothing in the product hopper, and was begging for money. Look where they are now. RIM has over $2 billion in the bank, no debt, and a product line that should be compelling once released. They also have a large global customer base. Battered and bruised, but still fighting.

Don't Panic. Not time to burn, but time to build! And meet your deadlines!

RIM having money in the bank only means 2 things at this point: It can likely hold out long enough to see the release of BB10 (on their current revised timeline), and that BlackBerry services aren't going anywhere for a while.

But that's the only 2 things we can be fairly certain of. Even with a launch of BB10, there's no guarantees it can pick up enough steam and traction for RIM to re-assert itself into the smartphone game. Sure there will be those that will pick up a BB10 device regardless, but for the most part public confidence in RIM has all but disappeared. Gone are the days that people will buy a BlackBerry branded product based simply based on name and past reputation. The Storm 9530, Torch 9800, and PlayBook releases made sure of that.

They've shown some signs that they "get it" - the PB OS 2.0 update, the most recent BlackBerry World - but they've managed to destroy all that goodwill and positivity that was built up with their announcement last week. 1 step forward, 2 steps back...

[kennyliu]

What were the answers when android first came out?

Not too bad. At least, Google didn't have a reputation of a sinking ship that is incapable of innovating.

Also, don't forget that the market in 2008 was quite different. Smartphone adoption was very low. Now, most of market has been already taken (at least markets that matter).

Besides, Google didn't have to compete with established/complete "modern" platforms/ecosystems as much as BB10 will have to.

[njblackberry]

And, as Google likes to do, they gave away the OS for free. They make so much money from search that they can afford to give things away. I doubt they realized how big it would become. Maybe they did. Who knows.

RIM, on the other hand, can't afford to give anything away, and their business model (and closed architecture - which I like) can't give anything away.

[jd914]

Apple was down once and had nothing in the product hopper, and was begging for money. Look where they are now. RIM has over $2 billion in the bank, no debt, and a product line that should be compelling once released. They also have a large global customer base. Battered and bruised, but still fighting.

Don't Panic. Not time to burn, but time to build! And meet your deadlines!

After being rock bottom, Apple went on to innovate revolutionary things like, iTunes, iPods, MAC's, iPads and iPhone. They are where they are because they went full steam ahead adapted and succeeded.

RIM had their reign as mobile leader and fizzled out with bad decisions and poor products.

RIM's time to shine is long over and to compare them to Apple now a days is inaccurate. RIM is now at the place where Apple will be if they ever go under.

2.2 billion in the corporate world especially for a mobile OEM is poverty. Honestly at the rate RIM is going how long do you think that money will be long gone?

Their large global customer base did nothing for all those laid off workers, plunging stock price, bottom line and the real risk of being bought out by another company.

You simply can't sugar coat this anymore, people simply aren't that gullible.

[kennyliu]

Apple was down once and had nothing in the product hopper, and was begging for money. Look where they are now. RIM has over $2 billion in the bank, no debt, and a product line that should be compelling once released. They also have a large global customer base. Battered and bruised, but still fighting.

Don't Panic. Not time to burn, but time to build! And meet your deadlines!

Palm were in trouble and they died.

I am just saying that you can't really extrapolate one company's experience to another.

I've said this before. It's just like me saying "Look at that billionaire. He had nothing, now he is making billions. I have much more than he used to have, which means there is a good chance I'll become the first trillionaire"

[Superfly_FR]

Things are bad. RIM is as beat up as it can be. It has no credibility. No one thinks it can come back. It is a desperate situation.

If I ran RIM, I would take a page from Cortez's handbook and burn my ships. When Cortez set out to conquer the Aztec empire, legend has it that he had his troops go ashore and then burned the ships. Why? This showed that there was no turning back. Either Cortez and his men would be successful or they would all die. There was no going back.

If I ran RIM, I would publicly announce a BB10 release date. I would advertise it. I would stake my reputation and my company's reputation on it. I would give employees stock options contingent on meeting that deadline. I would promise termination if that deadline was not met. I would resign if that deadline was not met.

We cannot have another RIM delay and the same kind of general deadline. Pick a date and stick to it, come or high water. Motivate the entire company to succeed and punish everyone if you fail!

Well, do or die is precisely what Thorsen said, many times, and did, when rejecting Balmers' proposal ("we may have a deal, but I'm not selling").

This means that until you (the company) are dead, you fight.
NOT that if you contract diarrhea you just lay on the floor and cry "shoot me fast".
You take cover, eat some rice drink a lot and have some Coke (did I make half-a-Joke here ?) until you're healed and ready again. Even if you missed the A plan, there's a B and maybe a C.

No resignation, no quitting, be f***ing BOLD, until the end. No compromise: win or die.
[war registry is implied by the "burn your ships" evocation]

[dandbj13]

RIM has no ships left to burn. No one believes them anymore when they say anything. Frankly, most of us stopped believing them a long time ago. This thread assumes that the endgame is to produce a BB10 phone. I don't even believe that is the case. I believe they are desperately looking for a buyer.

They will run out of cash long before they complete the software, manufacture hardware, market the hardware, get it onto shelves with good carrier relations, and actually see any market uptake. Their stock will be worth pennies by the next quarter. They will literally have no investors.

They are already sacking 5,000 people. Who do they have left to threaten? They are already down to the bones. Whoever is left can hold RIM hostage. RIM has no leverage to threaten the janitor at this point. T.H. going to mop the floor, himself?

There is simply nothing T.H. can do that would be the equivalent of burning the ships. That was already done long before he was ever given his Admiral stripes.

[kbz1960]

Not too bad. At least, Google didn't have a reputation of a sinking ship that is incapable of innovating.

Also, don't forget that the market in 2008 was quite different. Smartphone adoption was very low. Now, most of market has been already taken (at least markets that matter).

Besides, Google didn't have to compete with established/complete "modern" platforms/ecosystems as much as BB10 will have to.

True doesn't erase the fact the OS was garbage after working on it how many years before release? I've seen people state it was garbage until recently but at least it had apps with ads in them.

Are you saying at that time iOS was complete garbage also? Android wasn't competing with iOS?

[kennyliu]

True doesn't erase the fact the OS was garbage after working on it how many years before release? I've seen people state it was garbage until recently but at least it had apps with ads in them.

Are you saying at that time iOS was complete garbage also? Android wasn't competing with iOS?

Yes, iOS was also an incomplete platform with many things missing. Now the big two are very mature platforms/ecosystems with the third serious rival being WP8. So the market today is radically different.

And again, smarptphone adoption was in single digits and newcomers could compete for adopters (didn't necessarily have to get existing smartphone users on their side). Now, things are different.

[anon(757282)]

RIM can innovate. They have enterprise partners. They have the back end and security systems that other competitors don't have. I am not saying this will be easy. It was not easy or obvious for apples recovery and it will not be easy for RIM. But RIM has tools and resources to recapture market share, particularly in enterprise. And they appear to be motivated.

It is ignorant to completely discount that a company can innovate or adapt to this market. So called smart phones and sub-pc devices are just starting to scratch the surface of capability and adoption. Enterprise device need is fundamentally different from the consumption focused devices currently being sold.

Many on this forum seem giddy about RIM failing and discount anything to the contrary. Success is possible...difficult but possible. Failure is not a foregone conclusion.

[anon(757282)]

Believe I just made many of those same points.

http://forums.crackberry.com/news-ru...es-why-733224/

Rumors of RIM's impending demise are premature.

[anon(757282)]

Network double post...

[undone]

The nay sayers and go rim peeps have one thing in common...they dont give the f up on there 'cause'.

I have used two smart phones in my time. One was a Storm 2 (and I LIKED IT) and the 9900. I'll get a feature phone before I will used anything from Apple, Google, and Microsoft.

[dandbj13]

RIM can innovate. They have enterprise partners. They have the back end and security systems that other competitors don't have. I am not saying this will be easy. It was not easy or obvious for apples recovery and it will not be easy for RIM. But RIM has tools and resources to recapture market share, particularly in enterprise. And they appear to be motivated.

It is ignorant to completely discount that a company can innovate or adapt to this market. So called smart phones and sub-pc devices are just starting to scratch the surface of capability and adoption. Enterprise device need is fundamentally different from the consumption focused devices currently being sold.

Many on this forum seem giddy about RIM failing and discount anything to the contrary. Success is possible...difficult but possible. Failure is not a foregone conclusion.

Dr. your patient doesn't need anymore of that sweet, cough syrup you keep feeding him. He's coughing up blood. That's emphysema with a side order of inoperable lung cancer. Never mind the embolism. He doesn't need a pep talk; he needs an oncologist and a priest, stat! In fact, nevermind the oncologist.

You have the same scans as the rest of us. RIM has been showing the purest clearest pictures of cancer a corporation can have. It is a textbook case. It has been spreading to every part of the organization for a very long time. You can come to accept it or not. But no one has to assign credibility to the notion that it's only a cold, and RIM will come back stronger than ever. Just hurry up with that priest.

[njblackberry]

Believe I just made many of those same points.

http://forums.crackberry.com/news-ru...es-why-733224/

Rumors of RIM's impending demise are premature.

Did you read the article? There writer feels there is breakup value.

[kbz1960]

Yes, iOS was also an incomplete platform with many things missing. Now the big two are very mature platforms/ecosystems with the third serious rival being WP8. So the market today is radically different.

And again, smarptphone adoption was in single digits and newcomers could compete for adopters (didn't necessarily have to get existing smartphone users on their side). Now, things are different.

Yes things are different. The population keeps growing, kids still don't want what phone their parents have which will be android or iphone. I don't know that they can survive but I would love for them to unless BB10, TAT, Cascades are all just smoke and mirrors. What a waste if they are. Looked like some awesome game changing stuff.

Oh well I'll see win8 does because I don't care for the other 2. In the mean time I'll keep plugging away with what I have as long as they work.

[jd914]

The nay sayers and go rim peeps have one thing in common...they dont give the f up on there 'cause'.

I have used two smart phones in my time. One was a Storm 2 (and I LIKED IT) and the 9900. I'll get a feature phone before I will used anything from Apple, Google, and Microsoft.

How's that VCR coming along?

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

Well, do or die is precisely what Thorsen said, many times, and did, when rejecting Balmers' proposal ("we may have a deal, but I'm not selling").

But the problem is RIM isn't DOING...

RIM has used about every excuse possible for delaying BB10. Not saying it won't be great or that the company has no hope. Just that based solely on their track record over the last four years.... there is really no reason to expect the outcome not to be BAD.

[Jean-luc_Picard]

Things are bad. RIM is as beat up as it can be. It has no credibility. No one thinks it can come back. It is a desperate situation.

If I ran RIM, I would take a page from Cortez's handbook and burn my ships. When Cortez set out to conquer the Aztec empire, legend has it that he had his troops go ashore and then burned the ships. Why? This showed that there was no turning back. Either Cortez and his men would be successful or they would all die. There was no going back.

If I ran RIM, I would publicly announce a BB10 release date. I would advertise it. I would stake my reputation and my company's reputation on it. I would give employees stock options contingent on meeting that deadline. I would promise termination if that deadline was not met. I would resign if that deadline was not met.

We cannot have another RIM delay and the same kind of general deadline. Pick a date and stick to it, come or high water. Motivate the entire company to succeed and punish everyone if you fail!

Just one thing to keep in mind is that there is no way this would prevent a delay. If they announce a date publicly which is after Q1 then there's already a delay, and if they announce anything earlier than March 31st at 11:59 pm then they've given themselves even less time, which would increase their odds of missing that date. While it might be good to motivate the employees I don't think this would be a good idea because of the fact that if they use your technique and fail, then they're dead, whereas if they choose some other way then they could just have the employees who do well getting paid more, instead of threatening them, which increases their stress thus decreasing their productivity.

[nomloj]

Dr. your patient doesn't need anymore of that sweet, cough syrup you keep feeding him. He's coughing up blood. That's emphysema with a side order of inoperable lung cancer. Never mind the embolism. He doesn't need a pep talk; he needs an oncologist and a priest, stat! In fact, nevermind the oncologist.

You have the same scans as the rest of us. RIM has been showing the purest clearest pictures of cancer a corporation can have. It is a textbook case. It has been spreading to every part of the organization for a very long time. You can come to accept it or not. But no one has to assign credibility to the notion that it's only a cold, and RIM will come back stronger than ever. Just hurry up with that priest.

A text book case... so, hurry up with that priest? Is that what the doctor says in the ER room? I hope I never go to that particular doctor's O.R. I'd rather the doctor fight for my life, even if I'm coughing up the last bits of my lungs. I'm hoping RIM continues to fight for its life. I like their products and hope to be able to continue service with them for a long time. Yes, things look bad, very bad, but I'd rather root for them to pull through just like I would root for someone to pull through a big surgery. I don't know anything about medical/business procedures, but I know enough to want the best for those going through said medical/business procdures.

[lawguyman]

Just one thing to keep in mind is that there is no way this would prevent a delay. If they announce a date publicly which is after Q1 then there's already a delay, and if they announce anything earlier than March 31st at 11:59 pm then they've given themselves even less time, which would increase their odds of missing that date. While it might be good to motivate the employees I don't think this would be a good idea because of the fact that if they use your technique and fail, then they're dead, whereas if they choose some other way then they could just have the employees who do well getting paid more, instead of threatening them, which increases their stress thus decreasing their productivity.

RIM does not have the luxury of time. It has no new products in the pipeline for nine months or more. If it does not get something good out soon, it is dead anyway.

For as long as I can remember, every deadline has been followed by a delay. This approach has not been working for RIM. Burn the Ships!

[jd914]

Kinda hard to burn ships when you don't have them to burn......

The only thing RIM can burn right now is all the unsold overstock BB's and Playbooks they have locked up somewhere.

[jwn66]

How many jobs is he going to get with killing RIM on his resume?

Uhmmm, people have been failing upwards for...... Uhhhh.... Since forever?

Do you not follow the news? Especially in the US.