[outlooker]

Imagine this scenario:
BlackBerry 10 is launched by RIM and it barely sells more than the present BlackBerry Line-up. The BlackBerry App World remains a mere speck of dust in front of the Android Market and the App Store. And BlackBerry 10 simply does not impress. RIM fails to get people excited about it and so many people use Androids and iphones that BlackBerry becomes an endangered species.
What do you think would be the future of Research in Motion in case that happens?
Would RIM be able to survive?

Most of us here are BlackBerry fans so we're really excited about the new BlackBerry but just look at the rest of the world... BlackBerry is becoming rarer day by day. Androids and iphones are becoming the default choice of smart phones all over the world. What if BlackBerry 10 doesn't change that.
What would be the future of RIM then?
And what do you think RIM can do to prevent that?

[GTiLeo]

In emerging markets RIM is still going strong. Take India for example. A country with a population of 1.3billion people and barely 3 % are smartphone users. If RIM can crack that market and bring more users to the smartphone market using a BB7economy device like the curve then RIM can still run a bit time profit. Nrth America is a pretty small market with only half a billion people at most so battles may be lost here but the rest of the war is still going on and in the third world countries i doubt most people would be able to afford an android or iphone

[_StephenBB81]

Should BB10 flop, I am sure that shareholder pressure would be on splitting the company up to gain the maximum share value potential and RIM would become a service company focused on Mobile fusion, and low end smartphones for developing markets.

as for Android and iPhone being the smartphone of choice world over, I would disagree seeing as RIM isn't actually seeing a decline in their user base year over year but an increase. it just isn't at exponential numbers. and that user base also does not include those who use BlackBerry's as feature phones for the form factor on prepaid accounts.

my Hope clearly is BB10 succeeds, I don't want to see RIM split up, I don't want to have to use Android or iOS every day, and I do want to keep buying a new phone every year

[pr1nce]

RIM as we know it would no longer exist. BB10 has to be a success.

[ClearKoncept]

Yeah there's no secrets here..everythings out on the table. Don't let the product consume the consumer, everyone should stop fan boying and look at solid facts. I'm still a die hard RIM fan but we can all see facts

[amazinglygraceless]

If BB10 fails I think that would effectively end RIMs run as a top level player
in the smartphone market.

The revenue from the emerging markets may not be enough to sustain it and the
press firestorm will be brutal to say the least, further eroding confidence in the
company and BlackBerry as a brand.

(meaningless smileys because apparently you can only speak your mind
and NOT be called a troll if you include these)

[James Nieves]

I think when BB10 launches RIM/Blackberry as we know it will "no longer exist" they are really at a transitional stage right now, they're trying to redefine who they are as a company honestly, by leveraging their purchases over the last couple years. Old RIM needs to die internally so the new can spring fourth. Old Blackberry must be completely revamped, they realize that in order to get people to seriously pay attention they needed dynamic differentiation (TAT+QNX). Esentially they have married these two technologies and are pumping it through the brand 'Blackberry'
What suffers in the North America consumer and by extension media mindset is that most think RIM/Blackberry are dead already, or soon to be buried. Comes down to Heins going out there to say to the Blackberry fans, know this is not true. We are not dying, just you wait. Can he convert a good segment, (millions) of current BB users in the first year of BB10?

But let's be real didn't they just drop 200million cash back on-top of their 2billion? The cash alone from their last Quarter could fund the "launch" of their BB10 product, and with no debt they are in a very comfy space to execute on this latest OS. When Heins talks about BB10 it reads/sounds like it's of a magnitude bigger than iOS and Android.

RIM is readily spending money, but it's doing it in the right ways. Like it's 100$ million dollar investment in the developer community;

“We continue to show the strength of our commitment to developers and to the BlackBerry 10 platform. As I said at the BlackBerry World and BlackBerry 10 Jam events in Orlando earlier this year, RIM will invest $100 million in our developer and application programs over the course of 2012 . We have already invested in education, resources and new programs for developers this year. This investment will also include a range of new programs to support developers’ business development directly, including our guarantee of $10,000 revenue for app developers whose BlackBerry 10 applications meet certain guidelines, have been certified through RIM, and are posted for sale in BlackBerry App World before the launch of BlackBerry 10.”

It's how will the competion be in 2013 that's more refelctive of why Blackberry 10 fails as much as factor as how good an OS it is. Essetially, the competition in 6 months has to convert 77+ million people away from Blackberry. For the users RIM does bleed, they replace with fresh users and because they've bled slowly over time (just look at the stocks gradual fall) they aren't really wounded anymore. They are down for sure, but this is the point of opportunity they can forge control beyond what the other phones out there offer, the whole "services" aspect that enriches the BB Ecosystem.

Just don't see it happening in 6 months, that's an exodus of almost 13million people a month... I don't even think that's possible before the launch of BB10. So with that in mind, it's all about making a product that can compete with the other guys out there, and being able to have an ecosystem of developers that want the brand/product to succeed. Which is what the aforementioned 100$mil was a initial financial investment in.

I don't see them failing

[stackberry369]

If rim fails, I will not buy any other phone.I hate apple.

[amazinglygraceless]

Should BB10 flop, I am sure that shareholder pressure would be on splitting the company up to gain the maximum share value potential and RIM would become a service company focused on Mobile fusion, and low end smartphones for developing markets.

You know more about this than most so I am curious as to what your view
is on the, for lack of better words, monetization of the emerging markets. That
is how far will that go to helping sustain RIM beyond "bit player" status?

[njblackberry]

One factor is how much revenue RIM can continue to get from the carriers. That's a very important unknown. If carriers push back and demand reduced costs, then RIMs model takes a hit.

Concentrating on emerging/developing markets would be difficult if the hardware is priced too high. Also, if RIM decides to license BB 10 then their own hardware costs could be impacted if someone with better cost controls (Samsung, for example) decides to license the software.

There are a lot of ifs here. Starting with if BB 10 will be released in January, what devices will be released, and what it will cost.

If the stock stays low (or goes lower) at $3.6bn market cap, and the highly touted $2bn in the bank, the purchase price of the company as a whole is very cheap. Sometimes having a lot of cash and no debt is BAD if you have to defend your company.

A lot of ifs.

[_StephenBB81]

You know more about this than most so I am curious as to what your view
is on the, for lack of better words, monetization of the emerging markets. That
is how far will that go to helping sustain RIM beyond "bit player" status?

They wouldn't be beyond a bit player status should they reply only on emerging markets.

IF BB10 fails to gain traction in North America, then RIM will be facing pressures from their share holders to get some share value back, which would be splitting the company up into 2 or 3 divisions, 1 being hardware, 1 being software/services, (those could be split themselves)

the Hardware division would go the way of specialty headsets and low cost keyboard devices, it wouldn't be high volumes, but would service their customers who require the security that an end to end solution brings.

I suspect RIM's employee numbers would fall into the 5000-6000 employee range, as they need to be focused on costs with very low volumes.

They'll also have to entertain Jim Balsillie's idea of offering BIS service to other devices for service revenue and network sculpting for the carriers.

BlackBerry will essentially be dead, RIM will survive

[amazinglygraceless]

@StephenBB81: Thank you for that. The last sentence is one that I have not
heard articulated but it makes a brilliant point.

[_StephenBB81]

One factor is how much revenue RIM can continue to get from the carriers. That's a very important unknown. If carriers push back and demand reduced costs, then RIMs model takes a hit.

IF I was in RIM's position I would be offering a scaled service fee contract for BIS, rather than a Per user fee, I'd charge a flat fee, and a scaled per user fee based on volumes, say something like sub 100,000 users Base Fee + $6/u/m 100,001-1,000,000 subscribers Base Fee + $5/u/m 1mil-3mil, Base fee + $4/u/m 3m-5m, base fee + $3/u/m, 5m-10m NO basefee $3/u/m 10m+ $2.50/u/m

It gives Carriers incentives to get greater volumes of users which means making better plans for BlackBerry's RIM gets economy of scale management over their devices so their revenue increases even with lower fees per device.

You want to show the carriers how THEY can save themselves money, and they understand the how higher volumes can lead to lower pricing, they'd also be seeing lower purchase price of devices being able to buy them in larger volumes.
Just think if the 4 Major US carriers all had 10m+ subscribers on the Consumer side, and then they have the BES side with their current revenue structure, the USA alone would be generating revenue in excess of 1Billion a quarter on service fees,

[_StephenBB81]

@StephenBB81: Thank you for that. The last sentence is one that I have not
heard articulated but it makes a brilliant point.

One of my reasons for disagreeing with Kevin's post about how RIM should change their company name to BlackBerry was in part because of that bit I said.

Should BlackBerry Fail, RIM still has a viable business model, if RIM changed their name to BlackBerry it would tarnish and attempts at a changed business model

[z1nsane]

From an accounting perspective, as long as there is significant net income, there is no real problem. You can either increase revenues or decrease expenses to increase net income. And RIM is trying to reduce expenses (until BB10 comes out). But even if BB10 fails, as long as it's generating net income overall (so, including markets around the world), RIM can actually choose to withdraw from the North American and European markets and focus on their Asian, South American, and African markets. Apple will unlikely enter markets due to costs and pricing. Samsung will probably RIM's biggest worries in these markets in the future.

Yes, shareholders would be unhappy because it would probably never reach its peak value again in such a scenario, but at least the business will be sustainable.

Being a financially successful company doesn't mean you have to be #1 or #2 or whatever. It means being able to generate positive income for the foreseeable future. Currently, RIM's expenses don't justify its revenues and they know that, hence RIM is cutting their workforce.

Just my 2 cents.

[njblackberry]

Just think if the 4 Major US carriers all had 10m+ subscribers on the Consumer side, and then they have the BES side with their current revenue structure, the USA alone would be generating revenue in excess of 1Billion a quarter on service fees,

Which brings up another if - are BES revenues going to continue at the same rate. Are companies going to install Mobile Fusion in addition to BES, or is BES going to contract as BYOD forces IT departments to support more non-BES devices.

And yes - it has to be a win/win with the carriers. They are making a killing on overages for limited data plans and devices that chew threw data plans.

[_StephenBB81]

Which brings up another if - are BES revenues going to continue at the same rate. Are companies going to install Mobile Fusion in addition to BES, or is BES going to contract as BYOD forces IT departments to support more non-BES devices.

And yes - it has to be a win/win with the carriers. They are making a killing on overages for limited data plans and devices that chew threw data plans.

BES revenue easily can remain where it is. BES is price competitive with its competitors.
Mobile fusion pricing wasn't done by someone thinking long term as it matches BES, really, Mobile fusion should cost more per Cal for non BlackBerry products. Showing enterprise a discount should they go all BlackBerry for their deployment

Now I'd like to ask if you have anything to support the claim that "carriers make a killing on overage fees"
Overage fees are there to push users into higher plans carriers don't like overage fees they want predictable billables. Carriers get angry customers with overage fees it increases customer service call volumes and can lead to legal battles to get those fees

[morganplus8]

There is plenty of life left in RIM.

They have the cash, they have established the time line for their launch, they finally own a marketing department, and, they have the product. What does RIM have that distinguishs them for all of the other players out there? The keyboard of course and it is well protected with patents. The world loves that keyboard and together with a better UI/Internet experience, they can sell those phones forever. I for one will buy the new BB 10 9900 when it comes out.

Secondly, they have software and BES, this can be spun off to capture the higher P/E ratios of software only companies. They can build on their $ 4.3 billion in revenues and garner 80% margins while carrying an 18 multiple on earnings which gets the stock as it is now, back above $ 30.00/shr. Watsa knows this, he is no dummy. There are several forks in the fire and we will see them play out over the next 12 months.

In terms of finance, they have $ 2.2 billion in the bank, will incur charges for layoffs and will hold cash at flat levels for Q2 ending this month. What more can you ask of a company that is going through a product refresh on the software and hardware side? Apple needs to do the same thing, their iOS 6 looks old, their phone is rumoured to be taller and boring, they are heading down that slippery road too. If the competition gets it wrong, i.e., Apple, RIM can be huge again. One phone a year is not going to compete against Android any more, they need to innovate and they aren't.

And so RIM has a great opportunity to capture a chunk of the US market. And they have options, they can produce a couple of phones for the world, cater to the business world and maintain their Enterprise structure, and they can sell OS 7.1 to the masses. This will take them well into fiscal 2014. I don't see any problems with this company short of a media hungry group who needs clicks. So far, just about every concept BB phone that hits CB is too cool to be true, something about a BB trademark on a black phone looks so much better than the competition!

To put it into perspective, Watsa, bought $ 370 million to get 10% of the company, they have $ 35 billion in assets and a ton of cash, he could snap this company up in a heartbeat at these prices but the real money is in staying public and building that asset. I see him buying even more as the launch date approaches. For an additional $ 350 million, he could average down to $ 13.00/shr and hold a profit in RIM stock by the first quarter of next year. RIM will continue to sell phones for many years, they need to hang onto their Enterprise and consumer security business and place a keyboard in every hand waiting for one in the world of 7 billion people today.

[njblackberry]

BES revenue easily can remain where it is. BES is price competitive with its competitors.
Mobile fusion pricing wasn't done by someone thinking long term as it matches BES, really, Mobile fusion should cost more per Cal for non BlackBerry products. Showing enterprise a discount should they go all BlackBerry for their deployment

Now I'd like to ask if you have anything to support the claim that "carriers make a killing on overage fees"
Overage fees are there to push users into higher plans carriers don't like overage fees they want predictable billables. Carriers get angry customers with overage fees it increases customer service call volumes and can lead to legal battles to get those fees

BES revenues can and will decrease if companies use fewer BlackBerrys or even more drastically stop using BlackBerrys. It can happen. Some very large accounts gave done it. I expect more will. I don't think it's a valid assumption.

[apud]

i love blackberry and i love bbm
i live in indonesia , a lot people here have two device for daily use.
blackberry and android/iphone
but blackberry is device that we must buy why because bbm.

Sent from my BlackBerry 8520 using Tapatalk

[berklon]

If BB10 fails, RIM is dead.

They will sell their patents and maybe QNX, and will rapidly decline until they're bankrupt.

Microsoft is already aiming to take over on the enterprise side, which will align very tightly with their control over the enterprise server market.

However, I'm very doubtful BB10 will ever see the light of day.

[iankeiththomas]

Probably the company will be sold in chunks, with something called RIM sticking around to provide enterprise services or something. I could see a scenario where the hardware aspect is sold to Samsung or someone, who will continue to crank out something called a Blackberry, sort of how like Lenovo makes ThinkPads now.

[_StephenBB81]

BES revenues can and will decrease if companies use fewer BlackBerrys or even more drastically stop using BlackBerrys. It can happen. Some very large accounts gave done it. I expect more will. I don't think it's a valid assumption.

BES Revenues, coupled with Mobile Fusion which also generates revenue wont decrease, BES is still the best MDM solution available, MF needs to catch up, but BES has the better foundation, if RIM positions MF into BES environments then BES/MF revenue actually will increase as users will have multiple CALs were currently with BES a user only has a single CAL.

I expect that any company still using BES today is prepping for BlackBerry 10 to fail, but in also prepping for BlackBerry 10 to succeed, if they were so negative on BlackBerry they would have left as they've had a year to trial other solutions for full Enterprise deployment,
RIM needs to position Mobile fusion, now if Mobile fusion sucks, then yes they'll lose revenue, but where you called you "IF" factor from was the discussion tied into giving carriers more control over their BlackBerry fees through greater deployment, with Carrier support BlackBerry detraction in Enterprise will be slowed.

[njblackberry]

I am unsure how many companies are positioning for Mobile Fusion. BES is the best MDM around, but doesn't help with EAS devices one bit. RIM is doing well in developing nations, and that doesn't go well with the idea that BES/MF will grow. At best it will do well to stay where it is. Also, if companies cut back/drop BES that will impact RIM service contracts.

At the end of the day, it still comes back to BB 10. I'm not sure if companies are preparing for BB 10 to succeed or adopting a wait and see attitude.

[_StephenBB81]

Yes almost everything does hinge on BB10,
Should BB10 NOT be successful as I said above RIM's most likely path is splitting off and part of RIM becoming a service company which would be all about providing network shaping tools for carriers via a multiplatform supporting BIS and MDM solutions of Mobile fusion for the full range of devices. they do have a lot of expertise in these markets.