07-25-13 09:55 AM
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  1. kbz1960's Avatar
    Yes calling people "dumbphone" users is really going to make them switch quick.
    I think I'm gonna go with
    Attached Thumbnails 1 year Prediction-huh.jpg  
    11-24-12 01:25 PM
  2. skyrocket9's Avatar
    I think I'm gonna go with
    Here is your dumbphone user.
    kbz1960 likes this.
    11-24-12 01:29 PM
  3. sentimentGX4's Avatar
    I'm still skeptical that BB10 will do anything but maintain RIM's current marketshare at best. While it is "innovative", I am wary of how less tech-savvy RIM enthusiasts will receive the absence of the signature keypad that Blackberries are known for. Also, the consumer market hasn't exactly been friendly to alternative OSes.

    I think the biggest discrepancy between optimists and pessimists thought processes is that optimists presume that there are many current Blackberry users eager and willing to upgrade over to a new Blackberry 10 devices. So while for some people, RIM is starting from 80 million loyal BB subscribers, for others, RIM is starting from significantly less.
    11-24-12 01:47 PM
  4. skyrocket9's Avatar
    I'm still skeptical that BB10 will do anything but maintain RIM's current marketshare at best. While it is "innovative", I am wary of how less tech-savvy RIM enthusiasts will receive the absence of the signature keypad that Blackberries are known for. Also, the consumer market hasn't exactly been friendly to alternative OSes.

    I think the biggest discrepancy between optimists and pessimists thought processes is that optimists presume that there are many current Blackberry users eager and willing to upgrade over to a new Blackberry 10 devices. So while for some people, RIM is starting from 80 million loyal BB subscribers, for others, RIM is starting from significantly less.
    http://forums.crackberry.com/showthread.php?t=755149
    11-24-12 01:51 PM
  5. qbnkelt's Avatar
    Yes open-mindedly making absurd claims without any factual basis.
    Dude, really?!?!?

    You overreacted and lack the means to get out of it.

    It's OK.

    It happens.

    It's just a phone,


    Sent from my iPhone 4S using Tapatalk
    11-24-12 02:08 PM
  6. skyrocket9's Avatar
    Dude, really?!?!?

    You overreacted and lack the means to get out of it.

    It's OK.

    It happens.

    It's just a phone,


    Sent from my iPhone 4S using Tapatalk
    Over reacted? - So people can't ask follow up questions to your absurd claims?

    What's ok?
    What happens?
    Whats just a phone? And I believe we were discussing stocks/prices/companies and while closely related clearly aren't phones.


    Still making absurdities?
    11-24-12 02:21 PM
  7. qbnkelt's Avatar
    Over reacted? - So people can't ask follow up questions to your absurd claims?

    What's ok?
    What happens?
    Whats just a phone? And I believe we were discussing stocks/prices/companies and while closely related clearly aren't phones.


    Still making absurdities?
    LOL!!!!!

    OK love.

    Don't know how you got that burr under your saddle. But really, it will be OK.




    Sent from my iPhone 4S using Tapatalk
    kbz1960 and mikeo007 like this.
    11-24-12 02:38 PM
  8. timmy t's Avatar
    Yup. Dropped to $600.

    RIMM just rose to $13.

    Wee bit of a difference, no?



    Sent from my iPhone 4S using Tapatalk

    I said market share.

    Android market share was 72.4% of the overall smartphone market share, jumping 20% when compared to the same period last year.
    iOS market share was 13.9% for Q3 2012, a 1.1% decrease from its 15% market share during the third quarter in 2011.
    RIM's market share 5.3% of the market as it lost more than half of its 11% share since Q3 2011.
    Last edited by timmy t; 11-24-12 at 03:12 PM. Reason: Added statistics
    11-24-12 03:05 PM
  9. hurds's Avatar
    Definitely standing by this prediction. Please bookmark it all you want. It will be interesting to see where we are at in a year. I could make some prediction like apple will be dead in 10 years (just an example) but that wouldn't be any fun cause non of us will likely be posting here. For those who says its too early to say, well, ya obviously its early, but whats the point in making predictions if you have almost all the info you need to tell if it will come true.

    To the peope who want to wager, I've said this before there are ways outside this forum that are more reputable but if you are so confident I'm wrong, I'll say the same to you. PM me.

    I find it funny how stable people think this market is. Just like it was for RIM? Oh well.

    To be clear too I was definitely not talking about stock price. Thats a complete crap shoot. Just like RIMs up almost double for absolutely no reason. Nothing has changed since september with RIM.

    I'm saying market share of all iPhones to all BBs (smartphone only not including tablets), if you re-read my OP I think its clear. Its obviously hard to gauge that number since its hard to tell how many current iphone users their are. We know active BB users. Android will probably maintain number 1, but it could collapse over night but I think its still too early for that to happen. And i believe WP8 will grow, but remain in single digits. I know its perplexing to some people that we all don't think the same, but that should be a given since I no longer use an iphone and I'm a BB/RIM fan.

    This is definitely an aside from the fact that new iphones need to be continually sold while old BBs keep on steadily giving to RIM. Even moerso this is also aside from the total OS marketshare which is going to be extremely interesting, and to me far more interesting that just smartphones. I'd say the most important thing is just being in the game, too bad for hp/webos and nokia, and I guess any OEM without their own platform.
    11-24-12 03:09 PM
  10. dentynefire's Avatar
    [QUOTE=qbnkelt;7744507]Yup. Dropped to $600.

    RIMM just rose to $13.

    A long time ago I worked for a company whose stock dropped from $460 to < $5. Not saying that is going to happen to Apple cause it isn't even though they are down ~20% from their high of $700. Looking at MSFT the only thing worse than losing half of your value is when your companies stock doesn't move anywhere for 5 years.

    Personally, judging from what I see it would be reasonable that asset managers re allocate some funds away from Apple to BlackBerry. Its nearing year end and anyone paying attention to the mobile space can see that BB10 is compelling. I'm certain there are plans on just that in the new year when everyone finds out what BB10 is all about. Jan 30th can't come fast enough.
    11-24-12 03:26 PM
  11. qbnkelt's Avatar
    [QUOTE=dentynefire;7744917]
    Yup. Dropped to $600.

    RIMM just rose to $13.

    A long time ago I worked for a company whose stock dropped from $460 to < $5. Not saying that is going to happen to Apple cause it isn't even though they are down ~20% from their high of $700. Looking at MSFT the only thing worse than losing half of your value is when your companies stock doesn't move anywhere for 5 years.

    Personally, judging from what I see it would be reasonable that asset managers re allocate some funds away from Apple to BlackBerry. Its nearing year end and anyone paying attention to the mobile space can see that BB10 is compelling. I'm certain there are plans on just that in the new year when everyone finds out what BB10 is all about. Jan 30th can't come fast enough.
    Tell me about it. You've got no idea how much I need RIM to pull this off.
    I've got loved ones who will not put any instant messenger on their phones except for BBM and who will not buy anything but BB.
    At work I NEED for my agency to stay with BB.
    I am absolutely NEEDING RIM to pull this off.
    dentynefire likes this.
    11-24-12 03:36 PM
  12. timmy t's Avatar
    Yup. Dropped to $600.
    RIMM just rose to $13.
    Wee bit of a difference, no?

    By the way, share price doesn't really indicate anything in and of itself. If you want to cut your share price in half, you can do a 2-for-1 stock split. Twice as many shares, each share being worth half of what they were.
    The company is still valued at the same amount.
    So RIM can do the reverse and its share price will double to $23.
    11-24-12 03:40 PM
  13. toneytone's Avatar
    I don't think this will be achieved in a year because the lower end models probably won't be on the market for no more than 6 months. I do believe that given a year with a full lineup this can be achieved.
    11-24-12 03:46 PM
  14. jthep's Avatar
    I said market share.

    Android market share was 72.4% of the overall smartphone market share, jumping 20% when compared to the same period last year.
    iOS market share was 13.9% for Q3 2012, a 1.1% decrease from its 15% market share during the third quarter in 2011.
    RIM's market share 5.3% of the market as it lost more than half of its 11% share since Q3 2011.
    Those stats simply are not true, if RIM really only had 5.3% market share in the smartphone industry then its 80 million active users of BB smartphones would mean that roughly 1.5 billion active users of smartphones, which is not true. Smartphones are a growing industry, 1.5 billion users would indicate user saturation, its nowhere near that, its actually just a fraction of that.
    11-24-12 03:51 PM
  15. sydsam's Avatar
    Definitely standing by this prediction. Please bookmark it all you want. It will be interesting to see where we are at in a year. I could make some prediction like apple will be dead in 10 years (just an example) but that wouldn't be any fun cause non of us will likely be posting here. For those who says its too early to say, well, ya obviously its early, but whats the point in making predictions if you have almost all the info you need to tell if it will come true.

    To the peope who want to wager, I've said this before there are ways outside this forum that are more reputable but if you are so confident I'm wrong, I'll say the same to you. PM me.

    I find it funny how stable people think this market is. Just like it was for RIM? Oh well.

    To be clear too I was definitely not talking about stock price. Thats a complete crap shoot. Just like RIMs up almost double for absolutely no reason. Nothing has changed since september with RIM.

    I'm saying market share of all iPhones to all BBs (smartphone only not including tablets), if you re-read my OP I think its clear. Its obviously hard to gauge that number since its hard to tell how many current iphone users their are. We know active BB users. Android will probably maintain number 1, but it could collapse over night but I think its still too early for that to happen. And i believe WP8 will grow, but remain in single digits. I know its perplexing to some people that we all don't think the same, but that should be a given since I no longer use an iphone and I'm a BB/RIM fan.

    This is definitely an aside from the fact that new iphones need to be continually sold while old BBs keep on steadily giving to RIM. Even moerso this is also aside from the total OS marketshare which is going to be extremely interesting, and to me far more interesting that just smartphones. I'd say the most important thing is just being in the game, too bad for hp/webos and nokia, and I guess any OEM without their own platform.
    Do we know how many active iPhone users are there? This is the part that is confusing me. Does anyone know? Why we know how many BB users are there and know nothing about iPhone users, sure they ship a lot of em. But what is their subscription base???
    11-24-12 03:52 PM
  16. timmy t's Avatar
    Those stats simply are not true, if RIM really only had 5.3% market share in the smartphone industry then its 80 million active users of BB smartphones would mean that roughly 1.5 billion active users of smartphones, which is not true. Smartphones are a growing industry, 1.5 billion users would indicate user saturation, its nowhere near that, its actually just a fraction of that.
    They are not talking about smartphones currently in use, they are talking about new sales during that quarter.
    11-24-12 03:53 PM
  17. dentynefire's Avatar
    Yup. Dropped to $600.
    RIMM just rose to $13.
    Wee bit of a difference, no?

    By the way, share price doesn't really indicate anything in and of itself. If you want to cut your share price in half, you can do a 2-for-1 stock split. Twice as many shares, each share being worth half of what they were.
    The company is still valued at the same amount.
    So RIM can do the reverse and its share price will double to $23.
    True...its the financial ratios and the prevailing market mindset that influence price. Stock splits don't change these ratios but the way the market interprets them does.
    11-24-12 03:54 PM
  18. jthep's Avatar
    They are not talking about smartphones currently in use, they are talking about new sales during that quarter.
    Which is meaningless since RIM has not released a notable new device in over a year. Overall marketshare RIM is still a major player despite not having a new device in such a long time. BB10 gives RIM a real shot at being a much stronger number 3 at the very least or a shot at being number 1 again worldwide if they design lower end cheaper models too. There are a lot of possibilities in BB10.
    11-24-12 04:03 PM
  19. silversun10's Avatar
    really whatever Apple does is totally irrelevant, you can only hope they do well, their stock does well since a rising tide lifts all boats. so there.
    what RIM is doing is introducing mobile computing thru their BB10 introduction, so BB10's market share will be 100% of the smart mobile computing phone sector.
    RIM is putting their full weight behind it, including lessons learned from previous fiasco's, so this better be a resounding success and everything points that way.
    how many phone computers is a success? i guess we will know when we see it.
    and perhaps the Mayans have their hand in the fiscal cliff?
    11-24-12 04:14 PM
  20. Rello's Avatar
    Well this is a interesting thread.

    I'll be honest Hurds......I just can't see it. I mean, I'm just very interested to know how you've come up with this opinion my friend?

    I definitely think RIM has a chance to gain back marketshare...many people are waiting on BB10 to arrive...but saying it will equal IOS's global marketshare in a years time???....lol i almost view that as a miracle happening. BB10 could be very awesome but I just don't know if that many people are going to drop their current phone of choice to pick up a BB10 device. Most are locked in contracts right?

    I would like to Hear more of your point of view on this. I think it could happen but more over a 3 year time span
    11-24-12 05:17 PM
  21. timmy t's Avatar
    Keep in mind that Apple's market share is only 15% of new phone sales. RIM should easily sell a lot more phones when its new product comes out so whether or not they will catch Apple, they can certainly cut their lead from 10% to 5% or less.
    Of course, we don't know what Apple has up its sleeve. It doesn't have to drum up interest to survive, like RIM currently does.
    11-24-12 06:25 PM
  22. peter9477's Avatar
    I remember in one of the last few interviews with Heins, he said some interesting things about the smartphone market in the US.

    One was along the lines that there's only about 60% market penetration so far.

    Another was that something like half of all smartphone users are good candidates for the "BlackBerry people" label, meaning they should be quite well served by a BB10 phone.

    There may have been other tidbits... those are just what stuck in my memory.
    11-24-12 06:41 PM
  23. skyrocket9's Avatar
    Rims not going to ship more than 7 mil devices even with bb10, the demand will just be too low.


    It's too late
    11-24-12 06:45 PM
  24. wsblevins's Avatar
    BlackBerry will never, and I do mean never, hold the same or greater market share as iPhone. RIM has fallen too far behind and will be able to stay in business at best. At worst, it will simply disappear.

    Sent from my BlackBerry 9900 using Tapatalk
    11-24-12 06:50 PM
  25. sentimentGX4's Avatar
    Keep in mind that Apple's market share is only 15% of new phone sales. RIM should easily sell a lot more phones when its new product comes out so whether or not they will catch Apple, they can certainly cut their lead from 10% to 5% or less.
    I honestly don't see any growth from RIM coming out of Apple's marketshare. Apple's users are loyalists. If anybody is going to jump ship, it will come right off of Android, which has been the go-to default OS for indifferent smartphone buyers. (It could come off Windows Phone too; but, any gains would be too marginal to be worth mentioning.)
    11-24-12 07:07 PM
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