[sydsam]

@hurds Poor prediction. Highly unlikely in any aspect.

Also mayan calendar simply ends. It doesn't present an apocalypse.

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Poor bloke must have been knackered by the time he got to the 2012...

[peter9477]

Also mayan calendar simply ends. It doesn't present an apocalypse.

As I recall (not having read anything about it in the last decade or two), the Mayan calendar doesn't even end, it simply repeats in a big cycle...

[Roo Zilla]

What the bloody are you on about. The gap between launches was longer between iPhone 4 and iPhone 4s, than between 4s and iphone5. An introduction of an iPhone by one of carriers in America, is a bit of a stretch to call it an iPhone launch. Don't you think?

Yes, the gap was longer between the 4 and the 4S, that had the effect of leveling sales over a longer period. For example, sales didn't tank in during the spring. Also, the Verizon iPhone was also compatible with the Japanese networks. The Verizon iPhone launch was quite a big deal actually, Verizon alone sold 2M iPhones in the quarter before the iPhone 4S launch. The April launch of the white iPhone was also a big deal, since many Verizon buyers were willing to wait the 2 months, and thus sales didn't tank in during the summer..Finally, iPhone 4 was launch in some markets, particularly Asia, much later than the US. The effect of all these was that sales for 2011 was very stable quarter after quarter.

In 2012, there was only 1 iPhone launch, and everybody knew when it was, so sales in the spring and summer tanked. If you honestly believe that the current quarter will sell fewer iPhones that the previous quarter because you believe iPhones sales are trending down, that's fine. I would disagree though, and my guess is they'll sell about 40-50M iPhones from Oct-Dec.

[anon(4018671)]

It's difficult to predict BB10 sales since it isn't released yet. I can certainly see over 20 million but I don't know when the next phone is to be released. Like the Apple chart above indicates, people will wait for a compelling phone. Right now I'm not sure what percentage fall into a "I need this phone" or "I want this phone ". For me it's both so I see it as an easy sell but it needs proper app support.

[sydsam]

Yes, the gap was longer between the 4 and the 4S, that had the effect of leveling sales over a longer period. For example, sales didn't tank in during the spring. Also, the Verizon iPhone was also compatible with the Japanese networks. The Verizon iPhone launch was quite a big deal actually, Verizon alone sold 2M iPhones in the quarter before the iPhone 4S launch. The April launch of the white iPhone was also a big deal, since many Verizon buyers were willing to wait the 2 months, and thus sales didn't tank in during the summer..Finally, iPhone 4 was launch in some markets, particularly Asia, much later than the US. The effect of all these was that sales for 2011 was very stable quarter after quarter.

In 2012, there was only 1 iPhone launch, and everybody knew when it was, so sales in the spring and summer tanked. If you honestly believe that the current quarter will sell fewer iPhones that the previous quarter because you believe iPhones sales are trending down, that's fine. I would disagree though, and my guess is they'll sell about 40-50M iPhones from Oct-Dec.

Based on what?

[trsbbs]

I got a prediction. I think in 1 year BBs global smartphone marketshare (10+BBOS) will be equal to or greater than iPhone, it will obviously lag the 'free'-ware and I think WP8 will grow marginally but stay in the single digits .

I feel pretty good about that one. Any other predictions? Disagree with it? Agree? Upset by it?

Its funny how there doesnt seem to be much of an attempt to report this but it would be interesting to know market share based on all personal computing devices. Tablets+PCs+Smartphones. Active user device marketshare (not counting devices that have been junked) would be good to know as well.

Want to put some money on that?

PM if you do.

Tim


Sent from my BlackBerry 9850

[Roo Zilla]

Based on what?

Based on a gut feeling. That and some guy I met last month who works at Honhai Precision.

[sydsam]

Based on a gut feeling. That and some guy I met last month who works at Honhai Precision.

Oh ok.

[kbz1960]

I predict that hurds is going to get a lot of opposition

[Toodeurep]

I predict you are all correct depending on your point of view. Glad to see others expressing optimism in favor of BB10.

[Toodeurep]

Yes, the gap was longer between the 4 and the 4S, that had the effect of leveling sales over a longer period. For example, sales didn't tank in during the spring. Also, the Verizon iPhone was also compatible with the Japanese networks. The Verizon iPhone launch was quite a big deal actually, Verizon alone sold 2M iPhones in the quarter before the iPhone 4S launch. The April launch of the white iPhone was also a big deal, since many Verizon buyers were willing to wait the 2 months, and thus sales didn't tank in during the summer..Finally, iPhone 4 was launch in some markets, particularly Asia, much later than the US. The effect of all these was that sales for 2011 was very stable quarter after quarter.

In 2012, there was only 1 iPhone launch, and everybody knew when it was, so sales in the spring and summer tanked. If you honestly believe that the current quarter will sell fewer iPhones that the previous quarter because you believe iPhones sales are trending down, that's fine. I would disagree though, and my guess is they'll sell about 40-50M iPhones from Oct-Dec.

IMO, most consumers aren't overly aware of what is coming. They decide what they want based off of several forms of input and go get what is available at that moment. Something I read hundreds of times here on CB.

[mikeo007]

IMO, most consumers aren't overly aware of what is coming. They decide what they want based off of several forms of input and go get what is available at that moment. Something I read hundreds of times here on CB.

At least with Apple devices, this is not true. Until recently, Apple has been very predictable in their release schedule. People do pay attention to this. Some people care, some don't.

[Toodeurep]

I won't take this thread too far off the original topic but here is my observation. The house I sit in right now is full of those "i" devices. Three pads, five pods and two phones. Last night we had an additional two pads, two phones, two pods, Mac Book and an Mac (not on site). Only one of those devices was bought at launch and that was the Iphone 6. I think most of the hysteria in retail comes by people wondering why others are waiting.

[nocturnal123]

The Mayan calender does not predict the end of the world, that's a common misconception, the Mayan calender was used to track celestial events. It actually predicts the galactic alignment where everything in our galaxy lines up with the centre. Scientists do agree with what the Mayans predicted in that sense but say the timeline could be wrong. I do however agree with the destructive changes that are and are supposed to take place i.e. earthquakes, super storms and whatever else that will be caused by pole shift and galactic alignment. Apocalypse I highly doubt it, humans survived the last time this occurred sure the population MIGHT be reduced, that also depends on IF the Mayans were accurate could happen this year or it could happen in 100 years nobody knows for sure.

[qbnkelt]

I won't take this thread too far off the original topic but here is my observation. The house I sit in right now is full of those "i" devices. Three pads, five pods and two phones. Last night we had an additional two pads, two phones, two pods, Mac Book and an Mac (not on site). Only one of those devices was bought at launch and that was the Iphone 6. I think most of the hysteria in retail comes by people wondering why others are waiting.

I'm sure you mean the iPhone 5? iPhone 6, not so much?

Sales would suggest there are at least a couple of people buying at launch.


Sent from my iPhone 4S using Tapatalk

[qbnkelt]

The Mayan calender does not predict the end of the world, that's a common misconception, the Mayan calender was used to track celestial events. It actually predicts the galactic alignment where everything in our galaxy lines up with the centre. Scientists do agree with what the Mayans predicted in that sense but say the timeline could be wrong. I do however agree with the destructive changes that are and are supposed to take place i.e. earthquakes, super storms and whatever else that will be caused by pole shift and galactic alignment. Apocalypse I highly doubt it, humans survived the last time this occurred sure the population MIGHT be reduced, that also depends on IF the Mayans were accurate could happen this year or it could happen in 100 years nobody knows for sure.

Well I have gallons of water left that I bought for Sandy.
I'll just have to buy extra canned food I guess.


Sent from my iPhone 4S using Tapatalk

[pr1nce]

It's too early to make those kind of predictions. Let's wait and see where BB10 is this time next year. Really no way that Blackberry can pass iphone in a year.

[calicocat2010]

Let's all bump this thread once a Full year passes after BB10 comes out.

[BlackBerry Guy]

I can potentially see RIM solidifying a hold on the #3 spot and regaining some of their lost market share. But overtaking iOS or Android in a year likely will not happen.

[qbnkelt]

Let's all bump this thread once a Full year passes after BB10 comes out.

I've already marked it!!!

I'll be viewing either on my London, Note 3, or iPhone 5S....or whatever it will be...


Sent from my iPhone 4S using Tapatalk

[sydsam]

I'm sure you mean the iPhone 5? iPhone 6, not so much?

Sent from my iPhone 4S using Tapatalk

This was totally uncalled for!!! You just ruined the day for Roo zilla, mikeo007, and Marty...
Hope is a wonderful thing, a great thing to be bashed around like this.

[qbnkelt]

Oh I hate the iPhone. Totally. Completely.

Apple will not live to see the release of the iPhone 6.


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[Toodeurep]

I'm sure you mean the iPhone 5? iPhone 6, not so much?

Sales would suggest there are at least a couple of people buying at launch.

Nope, meant 6. Just something I do.
My comment was directed at the idea that people wait. I believe those people are the not so silent minority. Proven out by the fact that most sales are after launch.

[jthep]

BB10 is a completely unproven unknown OS with one model set in stone and another to follow shortly after. I think it will cause a BB rebound where RIM once again starts to gain market share rather than constantly losing it like in the last couple of years. Apple is still a dragon to slay since those that know little about smartphones seem to just buy iPhones by default due to positive word of mouth and strong marketing.

I do not not see Apple getting destroyed by BB10, too many brand loyal Apple fans out there and an already well established catalog of apps and features. But iOS after the release of BB10 will be the oldest smartphone OS of them all. Think about it, iOS came out in 2007, since we have seen Android and WP and early next year we will see BB10. But WP has yet to really catch on which is a bit surprising since Microsoft does have deep pockets, so we will see with BB10.

BB10 looks promising, but hopefully RIM markets it properly and has fun multimedia apps and also doesn't make dumb comments by their leadership like when they were knocking Apple products saying things like "Apple doesn't understand the phone market" when talking about the initial slow sales of the original iPhone or when the Playbook came out saying as a knock on the iPad, "Amateur hour is over".

RIM should just have positive marketing and comments and not try to enrage loyal users of other products, but win them over with BB10 by releasing something new and good...

[skyrocket9]

Have you Been to an apple store lately?

Was in there last week with someone buying a MacBook pro.

Just an observation (but I dont think apple is going anywhere anytime soon.

They had a whole table full of elderly people that were receiving a seminar on using iPad and other devices, I counted 20 elderly people and two apple blue shirts.

On another table there were four ladies with several children using the new iPad mini. I believe the blue shirts were again demonstrating the use of the products.

At another corner consumer and blue shirt were hugging as they closed another sale of whatever product. (I don't ever remember receiving a hug after purchasing something)

The couple besides us was purchasing a MacBook air and were busy migrating stuff from another laptop.

The front area had several blue shirts making appointments as people entered the store. (That's right they are so busy that you have to make make an appointment to buy something)

Anyway, don't discount apple out quite yet... I think more than bb10 is needed to thwart their success.