04-02-13 08:07 PM
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  1. koolrosh's Avatar
    The market share numbers for the UK are really worrying. I would think the Z10 would have a bigger impact on sales.

    Posted via CB10
    04-01-13 11:08 PM
  2. FSeverino's Avatar
    OP is AMERICAN sales.

    where are GLOBAL sales, and we still have to see the Z10 sales in this. Remember that WP just released its major phones... BB has not (at the time of this data)
    04-02-13 12:11 AM
  3. greggebhardt's Avatar
    .7%?

    Really?
    04-02-13 05:28 AM
  4. sylvaing's Avatar
    Yeah, they changed it, so the estimates are a bit more inexact than usual.

    The commentary from Kantar indicated that they thought it would take some time and mid-priced range models for BlackBerry to see share gains. However, it isn't clear whether they were comparing market share for February to January or whether they were comparing the three month period ending February 2013 vs. the same period ending February 2012.

    Their commentary seems to revolve around comparisons vs. a year ago instead of month by month data, so I'd favor the latter interpretation. In that case, the commentary makes sense since Z10 is only going to make a partial dent vs. the share loss from the 16.8% share they had last year at best.
    Yes, they compared Dec2011-Feb2012 sales to Dec2012-Feb2013 sales. What I did though is take their Nov2012-Jan2013 report and compare it to their Dec2012-Feb2013 report. So in this comparison, I lost the month of November (and I doubt they sold that many device then anyway) and gained the month of February, where the Z10 was sold.

    Not truly accurate (because of the inaccuracy caused by the lost of November 2012) but I still think it's a good representation of the sales in February 2013 and that's what worries me.
    04-02-13 07:21 AM
  5. lnichols's Avatar
    .7%?

    Really?
    Since this data is before the Z10 was available, and this would only be sales of BBOS devices, most of which are a year and a half old, you are surprised by this low number? My guess is the only sales were corporate phones being replaced.
    04-02-13 08:21 AM
  6. anon1727506's Avatar
    Would be interesting to know how many BB users in the US are BB users by choice or because of their work. And how many are still using older (pre OS7) devices. I think that if people had OS7 devices there wouldn't be so much "hate" for BB.

    Afraid that BBRY is going to continue the OS7 devices even here in the US and this is going to dilute the BB platform into two incompatible user bases. Which will cause people forced to use an OS7 device to see BB as still being behind the times, and cause developers to see the BB10 platform as not having enough users to develop for.
    04-02-13 08:44 AM
  7. RubberChicken76's Avatar
    Regardless BB has a dedicated user base to draw from . Could be room for four OS's. It will help when BB gets a mid tier touch phone to market and the Aristo
    That's what I think Windows Phone's biggest fear must be as far as BlackBerry is concerned. BlackBerry has 76 million customers to reach out to in order to get an upgrade. I'm going to guess this is about three times the size of all Windows Phone users from all manufacturers combined right now. if BlackBerry gets a decent number of upgraders with the Q10 and continues a decent number of switchers and new adopters with the Z10, BlackBerry 10 has the potential to grow very quickly relative to Windows Phone. Add in a "BlackBerry 10 Curve" and it could get interesting.

    I don't think it's assured for either party at the moment and no one should ever, ever under-estimate Microsoft. As I said about, I'm less concerned about this quarter given the unique conditions facing BlackBerry and more concerned about the summer and fall quarters.
    04-02-13 08:57 AM
  8. RubberChicken76's Avatar
    Would be interesting to know how many BB users in the US are BB users by choice or because of their work. And how many are still using older (pre OS7) devices. I think that if people had OS7 devices there wouldn't be so much "hate" for BB.
    I see that a lot. When I had Bold 9900, I'd have people tell me how much BlackBerry sucked and all the things you couldn't do. Then they'd whip out a government issued Curve 8300 that was so locked down it couldn't do anything but email, call and calendar. They'd see my Bold and be surprised. BlackBerry 7 still had plenty of issues and wasn't competitive (IMO) in a lot of ways, but it also wasn't as dire as a lot of people seemed to think especially in situations like described.


    Afraid that BBRY is going to continue the OS7 devices even here in the US and this is going to dilute the BB platform into two incompatible user bases. Which will cause people forced to use an OS7 device to see BB as still being behind the times, and cause developers to see the BB10 platform as not having enough users to develop for.
    I'm not too worried as far as consumers go. I think BlackBerry 7 devices will vanish mostly from US carrier stores the second Q10 lands on the shelves. Corporate is different, as you note. Hopefully BlackBerry's marketing team can generate enough buzz that corporate users will start to ask for the Z10 to be issued.
    04-02-13 09:01 AM
  9. Dave Bourque's Avatar
    Windows 8 was an utter fail... no reason why blackberry can't maintain a 3rd place spot

    Posted via CB10
    04-02-13 09:23 AM
  10. Wilsonia Goldens's Avatar
    Stats mean nothing until Q3 of this year. Look at the stats then to make any meaning full judgement as to where BB is going in regards to market share.
    04-02-13 09:31 AM
  11. FFR's Avatar
    if BlackBerry gets a decent number of upgraders with the Q10 and continues a decent number of switchers and new adopters with the Z10... I said about, I'm less concerned about this quarter given the unique conditions facing BlackBerry and more concerned about the summer and fall quarters.
    I would be more worried about the q10 cannibalizing z10 sales.
    04-02-13 11:57 AM
  12. RubberChicken76's Avatar
    I would be more worried about the q10 cannibalizing z10 sales.
    It probably will at first. I think Q10 is going to sell really well to upgrade customers. I think Thorstein is assuming that (initially), Q10 will sell well to upgraders and Z10 will sell to new buyers and switchers compared to Q10.
    04-02-13 12:17 PM
  13. allengeorge's Avatar
    Microsoft is a formidable competitor and I think there's some short-sightedness when it comes to understanding WP8's advantages (of which there are quite a few!) These include:
    1. Office (both desktop and 365, as well as Outlook/Outlook.com)
    2. XBox Live
    3. Windows 8 Core (which allows write-once, run anywhere for Windows 8 desktop/phone, XBox Next)
    4. Money :P

    Basically, Microsoft has some very strong, defensible ecosystems (online gaming, office productivity) tied up and can leverage these into phone marketshare. BlackBerry does not have any defensible ecosystems. They're trying to build some, like BBM Music, BlackBerry Games, etc., but so far none have taken off (partially because BlackBerry has a habit of building an MVP and never polishing it or killing it). Because of this, I remain somewhat bearish on BlackBerry's long-term prospects.
    Last edited by allengeorge; 04-02-13 at 05:42 PM. Reason: typos
    04-02-13 05:42 PM
  14. FSeverino's Avatar
    Windows 8 was an utter fail... no reason why blackberry can't maintain a 3rd place spot

    Posted via CB10
    Windows 8 and Windows Phone are different. With that being said, Windows Phone has already gone through a cycle of failure, re-dedication and then realization by devs that there can actually be a successful third competitor. I think that the one thing that WP has above BB10 is TIME. They had that time to come out and falter and then rebuild, where as BB10 needs to succeed right out of the gate (which it looks like it is) because if it has a massive failure like WP then people that dont want iOS or Android devices will just go with WP. Only time will tell, but the next 3 months, and then summer, are CRUCIAL for both companies in the race for third.
    04-02-13 05:51 PM
  15. mrfreetruth's Avatar
    Enough with the windows propaganda. Mr.soft has been putting out propaganda articles of Windows 8 doing well but pc makers have been reporting poor sales crushing the propaganda articles of lies. Has anyone even seen a wp8? Has anyone even seen a wp? With the rebooting, freezing and syncing problems just to name a tiny few problems. The fact is no one cares about wp. If you Microsoft employee trolls want to talk about Window phone just stay at work or goto your windows phone forums . People don't care or like Microsoft.

    Posted via CB10
    04-02-13 06:34 PM
  16. RubberChicken76's Avatar
    Microsoft is a formidable competitor and I think there's some short-sightedness when it comes to understanding WP8's advantages (of which there are quite a few!)
    I agree, but I also want to highlight that victory nor defeat are guaranteed or assured simply because Microsoft is "Microsoft". They have had plenty of failures to go along with their many wins. Even successes like the XBox were painful, money losing ventures at least partway along the ride.
    Alex_Hong likes this.
    04-02-13 06:37 PM
  17. Enyigma's Avatar
    Microsoft did put a big advertising push on over the period while for the bulk of it BB had nothing new to offer. We'll definitely need the next quarter to see if Microsoft's sales hold or if they only had a pop and settled back. I'm not seeing anywhere near the press coverage on the Microsoft phone versus the BB offerings, good or bad. Sometimes any news is better than none.

    At any rate, BB is gradually hitting the market so it may take a while yet to see if the Z10 and soon the Q10 start to bite significantly into Android and IOS space to allow BB to regain the no.3 position in sales. I think BB stands a better chance in phone space than Microsoft does notwithstanding Microsoft's deep pockets, but that is just an opinion. Microsoft is not going away any time soon but I do think their day in the sun is much further down the road.
    04-02-13 08:00 PM
  18. papped's Avatar
    You're going to see BB Java OS bleeds for a while, whether or not BB10 makes up for them. That's expected.
    04-02-13 08:07 PM
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