12-19-13 09:11 AM
67 123
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  1. Loc22's Avatar
    Roo Zilla I think you also need to take into account that somehow component parts are much cheaper in China as compared to other parts of the world. I do not have figures on component parts in Mexico but I know it's almost free in China.

    Let's say if they can be components 20% cheaper then that would definitely extend BlackBerry 's life support but say 20%. This would mean giving the company another 20% more fighting chance to survive.

    Posted via CB10
    12-16-13 01:00 PM
  2. kevinnugent's Avatar
    Roo Zilla I think you also need to take into account that somehow component parts are much cheaper in China as compared to other parts of the world. I do not have figures on component parts in Mexico but I know it's almost free in China.

    Let's say if they can be components 20% cheaper then that would definitely extend BlackBerry 's life support but say 20%. This would mean giving the company another 20% more fighting chance to survive.

    Posted via CB10
    I think a fair amount of the components are indeed sourced from China already. Foxconn to name one component supplier.
    12-16-13 10:24 PM
  3. M65c02's Avatar
    Roo Zilla I think you also need to take into account that somehow component parts are much cheaper in China as compared to other parts of the world. I do not have figures on component parts in Mexico but I know it's almost free in China.

    Let's say if they can be components 20% cheaper then that would definitely extend BlackBerry 's life support but say 20%. This would mean giving the company another 20% more fighting chance to survive.
    In addition to Kevin's accurate statement, it's not so simple as a 20% savings in parts translating into a 20% more fighting chance (aside from my realization that you likely didn't meant it literally). Given BB's current anemic unit sales, it is no where near covering its BB10 fixed costs nor costs necessary for any development of future products. Financial statements, and with particular emphasis on cash flows/generation, have long since (back to Dec 2012) revealed this short fall in the BB scheme. Only the launch success of BB10 could (have) salvage(d) this long, multi-year slide. The payroll cuts will help but I've got to believe that some muscle and bone has gone out the door with these prunings.

    Therefore, I must report that even if BB cut mfr costs I dare say 33%, BB still wouldn't generate enough money to grease the wheels of progress from only just a few million unit sales. ... If we can't talk about selling at least 20mm OS10 units/annum (to start), then there's nothing more to talk about.
    Last edited by M65c02; 12-18-13 at 10:37 AM.
    12-17-13 12:19 PM
  4. Shlooky's Avatar
    If they continue to make handsets they will continue to lose money.
    JeepBB likes this.
    12-17-13 12:44 PM
  5. anon1727506's Avatar
    In addition to Kevin's accurate statement, it's not so simple as a 20% savings in parts translating into a 20% more fighting chance (aside from my realization that you likely didn't meant it literally). Given its current anemic unit sales, BB is no where near covering its BB10 fixed costs nor costs necessary for any development of future products. Financial statements, and with particular emphasis on cash flows/generation, have long since (back to Dec 2012) revealed this short fall in the BB scheme. Only the launch success of BB10 could salvage this long, multi-year slide. The payroll cuts will help but I've got to believe that some muscle and bone has gone out the door with these prunings.

    Therefore, I must report that even if BB cut mfr costs I dare say 33%, BB still wouldn't generate enough money to grease the wheels of progress from only a few million unit sales. ... If we can't talk about selling at least 20mm OS10 units/annum (to start), then there's nothing more to talk about.
    Not only are they not making money on new sales, they continue to loose BIS revenues as user migrate away from BIS devices - I think the potential revenues here far outweighed the profits for devices sales. Which might be why they felt the need to ask so much for BB10 device. The last two reports that we got of "subscribers" both showed a decrease in numbers, one that BB10 sales (and BBOS sales) has not come close to offsetting. So do you assume that almost a year later that those losses just magically leveled off, or have they continued or even increased? They only offsetting revenue would be licensing of iOS and Android Devices on BES10 System.... but it seems like those sales have not been as strong as hoped.

    IF I were an investor, I want to know where they are today in overall subscriber numbers.
    M65c02 and JeepBB like this.
    12-17-13 04:31 PM
  6. M65c02's Avatar
    Not only are they not making money on new sales, they continue to loose BIS revenues as user migrate away from BIS devices - I think the potential revenues here far outweighed the profits for devices sales. Which might be why they felt the need to ask so much for BB10 device. The last two reports that we got of "subscribers" both showed a decrease in numbers, one that BB10 sales (and BBOS sales) has not come close to offsetting. So do you assume that almost a year later that those losses just magically leveled off, or have they continued or even increased? They only offsetting revenue would be licensing of iOS and Android Devices on BES10 System.... but it seems like those sales have not been as strong as hoped.

    IF I were an investor, I want to know where they are today in overall subscriber numbers.
    Exactly, I often forget to (re-)mention that Blackberry's fall during the 3-4 years (ending 2012) was buffeted by their BIS revs or, alternatively, that BB10 sales obviously will not fill this giant void. And, yes, I have to believe that part of the absurd pricing of the BB10 devices was based on a desire to regain some of the presumed loss of revenue from "legacy device" subscribers.

    Unfortunately, it has been a double slap now with both the loss of unit sales and somewhat slower to materialize loss of BIS. The great concern going back to this spring (but not often mentioned since mid summer) was whether BB10 (and BBOS) could possibly make up for the loss of BIS which formed the backbone of solid RIM earnings for years. I have to believe that those losses have yet to level and are continuing to increase albeit at a decreasing rate. This trend should subside sometime in the first half of 2014?!?

    A licensing agreement is one solution I agree should be (is being) pursued with great vigor.
    12-17-13 05:01 PM
  7. Troy Tiscareno's Avatar
    If you think BIS revenue was dropping fast BEFORE, wait until you see how fast it is dropping NOW, with XBBM giving so many Indonesians and Malaysians the ability to drop their BBOS phones in favor of Android (which is occurring in droves, as reported by even BB fans from those countries). It won't be long before Nigeria and South Africa follow suit.

    BIS revenues are evaporating, and BB10 sales continue to fall. Soon, BES10 will be the primary revenue source for BB, and even with a few recent sales, that comes no where near replacing what is being lost.
    JeepBB, garnok, techvisor and 1 others like this.
    12-17-13 08:57 PM
  8. kevinnugent's Avatar
    If you think BIS revenue was dropping fast BEFORE, wait until you see how fast it is dropping NOW, with XBBM giving so many Indonesians and Malaysians the ability to drop their BBOS phones in favor of Android (which is occurring in droves, as reported by even BB fans from those countries). It won't be long before Nigeria and South Africa follow suit.

    BIS revenues are evaporating, and BB10 sales continue to fall. Soon, BES10 will be the primary revenue source for BB, and even with a few recent sales, that comes no where near replacing what is being lost.
    Man, that is a scary prospect. BBM in emerging markets was probably a great earner as they needed BIS. Now, not so much.
    techvisor likes this.
    12-17-13 11:13 PM
  9. bakron1's Avatar
    First of all, you can't continue to produce a product that "nobody wants". I am only saying this based on what I have seen here in the USA?

    All you BB faithful can bash me about the who cares about the USA bull**** and that the rest of the world is what's counts, but that's not how your competition looks at it?

    Before you can start making speculations about profit and loss, you better start rebuilding your image here so when you do design and build a new device, the consumer here will buy it?


    Sent using the CB app from my iPhone 5S
    techvisor and milo53 like this.
    12-18-13 05:36 AM
  10. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    If you think BIS revenue was dropping fast BEFORE, wait until you see how fast it is dropping NOW, with XBBM giving so many Indonesians and Malaysians the ability to drop their BBOS phones in favor of Android (which is occurring in droves, as reported by even BB fans from those countries). It won't be long before Nigeria and South Africa follow suit.

    BIS revenues are evaporating, and BB10 sales continue to fall. Soon, BES10 will be the primary revenue source for BB, and even with a few recent sales, that comes no where near replacing what is being lost.
    Wait for BES SAAS to flood the market. Carriers may jump on it as for additional revenues.
    Let's see how T-mobile performs ...
    12-18-13 06:15 AM
  11. bakron1's Avatar
    Wait for BES SAAS to flood the market. Carriers may jump on it as for additional revenues.
    Let's see how T-mobile performs ...
    As far as I am concerned T Mobile USA doesn't give a rats *** about the Blackberry brand. No stores carry the brand anymore and you have to buy it online, so how is a new customer going to get the feel of the device before they buy it?

    I really hope they will still support the device in the future, but with the BB brand presence shrinking here by the day. I am not optimistic about it anymore and rightfully so.


    Sent using the CB app from my iPhone 5S
    12-18-13 10:02 AM
  12. M65c02's Avatar
    As far as I am concerned T Mobile USA doesn't give a rats *** about the Blackberry brand. No stores carry the brand anymore and you have to buy it online, so how is a new customer going to get the feel of the device before they buy it?

    I really hope they will still support the device in the future, but with the BB brand presence shrinking here by the day. I am not optimistic about it anymore and rightfully so.


    Sent using the CB app from my iPhone 5S
    Superfly, bakron sums up pretty well T Mobile's (fairly) long standing attitude toward Blackberry, or at least BB10. I believe that I gave a much more scathing commentary on T-Mobile going back to last summer when they abandoned T-Mobile. Just to be objective and for review, and also in small support of T Mobile's policy, TM dropped BB10 from inventory because (1) BB10 wasn't selling (obviously) and (2) there are some potential legal costs (for T Mobile) associated with BB should they liquidate (thus explaining no or fewer BB legacy phones in TM stores too).

    An appropriate strategy to go along with an entire revamping of BB is/was to isolate one, or two, carriers in the U.S. (and certain other countries) to provide an exclusive BB marketing agreement in exchange for certain return incentives by, for example, TM (or Verizon). BB is way too watered down in the U.S., and the large markets, and is simply a "down-the-list" afterthought (especially for BB10 phones) for current carrier sales persons (except perhaps in Canada). This gap has zero chance of reversing under anything resembling Thors scheme. Without an entirely new BB marketing "splash" and, now, most likely also requiring a second generation BB10 phone, our BB is simply not going to get any material attention from any U.S. or European carrier.
    Last edited by M65c02; 12-18-13 at 12:18 PM.
    kevinnugent and JeepBB like this.
    12-18-13 10:53 AM
  13. BeautyEh's Avatar
    Good info. I really enjoy reading these posts, you guys clearly know what you're talking about. Very refreshing.
    Agreed on BB targeting carrier partners where they can, like Verizon here with Z30. Unfortunately I think Chen is either abandoning any real consumer marketing at all, or considering the options and not going forward with marketing until a clear strategy emerges.
    Some users here have suggested they keep manufacturing, but adopt Android as an OS. This makes no sense to me - plus, what about the security aspect as it relates to dealing with corporate and government clients? I think the only way to go forward sustainably with devices is to find a manufacturing partner who wants in on this aspect of the market, and trade the OS for the hardware. This would let BlackBerry keep its niche, but with the newer direction.

    Posted via CB10
    12-18-13 11:38 PM
  14. BeautyEh's Avatar
    Actually something I don't understand - maybe one of you guys do - is that BIS is shrinking. They continue to sell millions of BBOS devices per quarter...if memory serves they sold over 3 million last quarter (I even got one for a friend).
    Is the turnover definitely higher than that per quarter, to the extent that BIS profits are rapidly shrinking? Odd considering that the MO of a typical BlackBerry OS keyboard type user is that they DON'T easily move on to another phone. My landlord is using the same Torch she's had for years, and I know others like her.

    Posted via CB10
    12-18-13 11:59 PM
  15. kevinnugent's Avatar
    Actually something I don't understand - maybe one of you guys do - is that BIS is shrinking. They continue to sell millions of BBOS devices per quarter...if memory serves they sold over 3 million last quarter (I even got one for a friend).
    Is the turnover definitely higher than that per quarter, to the extent that BIS profits are rapidly shrinking? Odd considering that the MO of a typical BlackBerry OS keyboard type user is that they DON'T easily move on to another phone. My landlord is using the same Torch she's had for years, and I know others like her.

    Posted via CB10
    They must be losing more than that number per quarter. Otherwise the numbers would go up. It'll be interesting if they ever do publish "subscriber" numbers ever again. I'm going to presume they'll add xBBM users into that which might be a little egregious.. I bought and activated BBM on 3 other devices since it launched but only use my Z30 now. So I wonder if I count as four? We'll see I guess.
    JeepBB likes this.
    12-19-13 02:08 AM
  16. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    As far as I am concerned T Mobile USA doesn't give a rats *** about the Blackberry brand. No stores carry the brand anymore and you have to buy it online, so how is a new customer going to get the feel of the device before they buy it?

    I really hope they will still support the device in the future, but with the BB brand presence shrinking here by the day. I am not optimistic about it anymore and rightfully so.


    Sent using the CB app from my iPhone 5S
    Superfly, bakron sums up pretty well T Mobile's (fairly) long standing attitude toward Blackberry, or at least BB10. I believe that I gave a much more scathing commentary on T-Mobile going back to last summer when they abandoned T-Mobile. Just to be objective and for review, and also in small support of T Mobile's policy, TM dropped BB10 from inventory because (1) BB10 wasn't selling (obviously) and (2) there are some potential legal costs (for T Mobile) associated with BB should they liquidate (thus explaining no or fewer BB legacy phones in TM stores too).

    An appropriate strategy to go along with an entire revamping of BB is/was to isolate one, or two, carriers in the U.S. (and certain other countries) to provide an exclusive BB marketing agreement in exchange for certain return incentives by, for example, TM (or Verizon). BB is way too watered down in the U.S., and the large markets, and is simply a "down-the-list" afterthought (especially for BB10 phones) for current carrier sales persons (except perhaps in Canada). This gap has zero chance of reversing under anything resembling Thors scheme. Without an entirely new BB marketing "splash" and, now, most likely also requiring a second generation BB10 phone, our BB is simply not going to get any material attention from any U.S. or European carrier.
    Sometimes a companies are a bit schizophrenic
    T-Mobile exclusively begins offering cloud-hosted BES10 Servers | CrackBerry.com

    SAAS BES provided by BlackBerry will go public early 2014. Fees ~ €15/$20 per year per device (BB, iOs, Android). And yes, thanks to Active Sync, it will interface with O365/outlook.com, if you ever wonder

    SAAS BES is next BIS (at a similar price), for anyone wanting it. This is a huge upgrade.
    M65c02 likes this.
    12-19-13 04:20 AM
  17. M65c02's Avatar
    If you think BIS revenue was dropping fast BEFORE, wait until you see how fast it is dropping NOW, with XBBM [replacement especially in the third world].

    BIS revenues are evaporating, and BB10 sales continue to fall. Soon, BES10 will be the primary revenue source for BB, and even with a few recent sales, that comes no where near replacing what is being lost.
    They must be losing more than that number per quarter. Otherwise the numbers would go up. It'll be interesting if they ever do publish "subscriber" numbers ever again. I'm going to presume they'll add xBBM users into that which might be a little egregious.. I bought and activated BBM on 3 other devices since it launched but only use my Z30 now. So I wonder if I count as four? We'll see I guess.
    Yes, these numbers often seem rather strange given the obvious circumstances (or what I see as obvious). The juice has to be depleting and the need for more creative counting is growing. I'm sure that BB powers don't want to admit that the drain plug is completely pulled while trying to build other business segments. To be expected with any company struggling with a changeover of revenue sources.

    Sometimes a companies are a bit schizophrenic
    T-Mobile exclusively begins offering cloud-hosted BES10 Servers | CrackBerry.com

    SAAS BES provided by BlackBerry will go public early 2014. Fees ~ €15/$20 per year per device (BB, iOs, Android). And yes, thanks to Active Sync, it will interface with O365/outlook.com, if you ever wonder

    SAAS BES is next BIS (at a similar price), for anyone wanting it. This is a huge upgrade.
    Interesting, thanks for reminding of the facts.

    I realize that many of these company's have a half life similar to that of the latest smart phone when it comes to attention/attraction to particular strategies. Maybe T-Mobile will return to the nest and become the biggest ally to BB (or after Verizon) in 2014 ... stranger things have happened. But I will reinforce what many have said (in other threads) by stating that T Mobile has been less than hospitable to BB and BB clients/consumers. [Note: TM management, of course, had their major strategy for 2012-13 pulled from under them when they were unable to merge. So some "disorganization," I suppose, is/was to be expected.]

    Let's see how Chen alters this, if at all. First clue, but not the definitive plan, should come tomorrow.
    Last edited by M65c02; 12-19-13 at 09:22 AM.
    Superfly_FR likes this.
    12-19-13 09:11 AM
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