12-19-13 07:07 PM
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  1. abwan11's Avatar
    Where's Accountability For These Clowns?

    So-called analyst Ehud Gelblum, who jumped ship from Morgan Stanley to Citibank, was out yesterday late afternoon with "research" on BlackBerry, "initiating coverage" with a Sell rating and a $4 price target.

    I don't know why that merits being called "news", given that everyone and their brother believes the firm is going to zero. And the timing is rather suspicious, given that the company's stock traded double normal daily volume andhad a monster rally and outside reversal yesterday after diving at the open, leaving me to wonder if someone has inside information on somethingthat has not been announced.

    No, the news part of this is found here, which of course was not reported:

    Morgan Stanleyanalyst Ehud Gelblum upgraded shares of the Canadian technology firm to "overweight" from "underweight," and raised his price target to a Wall Street high of $22, as he believes the gross margins from BlackBerry 10 will add to earnings this year.

    That's from March.

    Now I'll give you that people are free to change their mind. But -- and this is the key -- note what he said at the timeabout what he believed were the prospects for the firm's BB10 devices:

    Though the price target is being raised and the stock is being upgraded, Gelblum noted he does not believe BB10 is likely to emerge as a third viable operating system in the United States, whereGoogle'sAndroid and Apple's iOS dominate.

    In other words he believed the firm would fail to find wide adoption with its devicesbut put a $22 price target on the stock anyway? The stock was trading around $16 at the time.

    So here's the question -- where's the accountability when you issue a price target that is wildlyat odds with what you claim for the underlying premise of the firm? Now you essentially claim that the company's going to be forced out of business, as you don't believe it's a going concern, and you put a price target on the company that's 30% lower than today's trading price where the last time you put one that was 50% higher out there.

    The essence of the price target call is a belief that the company has, at its core,zerovalue as an operating concern.

    Well, maybe and maybe not, but how is it that the previous price target not to mention being the most-bullish of all on the street at the timegets no ink as a cautionary notewhen it comes to listening to this guy's call?

    More to the point, what's Citibank doing allowing him to "cover" this stock at allgiven that history?

    He does acknowledge that BES10 may prove out to be a winner -- indeed, every indication is that despite all the screaming about the company being dead it continues to find both test and online installation growth, and with good cause -- it's theonlymulti-vendor device management solution that is deliverabletodayand yet doesn't lock you up, leaving open the choice to run IOS, AndroidorBlackBerry handsets at your option. I note with some curiosity that T-Mobile just announced a cloud hostedBES10 option for those who don't want to run their own servers.

    I've been quite-surprised at the management failures that BlackBerry has accumulated over the last year, but the firm's stock price has certainly been punished commensurate with those failures. BB10, as an operating environment on a mobile device, has a number of unique features in its stable that nothingelse has, among them being the ability to run not just native apps but also nearly all Android apps as well.

    The company has intentionally crippled a number of these features over the last year, and whatever business case they had internally for doing so has been proved to be stupid. Whether that has resulted in the infliction of mortal but self-inflicted damage is yet to be determined, but it hasresulted in the departure of their CEO(good) and a number of other high-level people (better.)

    I find it interesting that Gelblum says exactly nothing about the progress of the BB10 platform that has come about primarily through the release of these artificial constraints -- most particularly the ability to seamlessly load and run Android apps in 10.2.1. Yes, I know, it's not yet officially released, but it is publicly known that work hasn't been abandoned on getting that out to customers -- indeed, if anything it has been stepped up.

    The real question is whether the firm shows stabilization on the financial front in the next quarterly release and what the roadmap is to complete both that and delivery of a fullyfunctional platform that is bothBB10 and Android-app compatible -- and when that will occur in general release.

    As I've previously noted full S/MIME support for non-BES clients along with a concerted drive to make BB10 a "computer in a pocket", replacing a tablet and perhaps a laptop, porting something like Open Office to it and widening the HDMI external display compatibility so that full external screen resolution can be exploited, would be a monstrous bombshell. The devices already have seamless connectivity back to the file store on your desktop or network and this would be the first crediblesingle-device mobile-office solution that actually fits in a pocket.

    Chen, the so-called "interim" CEO, certainly has the chops and the history to recognize both the challenges and blaze the path. There are always those will say "it's too late" but in point of fact there are multiple instances in the marketplace -- including Apple, I might point out -- where that exact claim was made and turned out to be wrong.

    At today's stock price the company is trading as if it's alreadyout of business, but the window remains open. Chen doesn't have the luxury of time, but he doesn't need it -- all the ingredients are there if he has the corporate and visionary chops to take the right steps.

    My question at this point is simple: Have so-called "analysts" turned into nothing more than a legal way to manipulatestock prices and, if so, what does that say about the value of so-called "research" shops?

    Posted via CB10
    12-12-13 07:23 AM
  2. qwerty4ever's Avatar
    I'm off the opinion these analysts are paid to produce 'research notes' which align with the interests of the so called investment banks. Chris Umi belongs to the club yet CrackBerry Nation gushes whenever he says something about BlackBerry.

    Posted via CB10
    12-12-13 07:51 AM
  3. heymaggie's Avatar
    Do you always complain when the stock market gives you the opportunity to conveniently make lots of money by knowing that a company like Blackberry is worth a lot more than its current stock price reflects? You should be happily buying a lot of undervalued BBRY rather than worrying about price manipulation.

    The Prem Watsa's of the world don't listen to analysts. That's how he was able to raise $9 per share to take BBRY private last month.
    12-12-13 08:05 AM
  4. 9Jer99's Avatar
    Do you always complain when the stock market gives you the opportunity to conveniently make lots of money by knowing that a company like Blackberry is worth a lot more than its current stock price reflects? You should be happily buying a lot of undervalued BBRY rather than worrying about price manipulation.
    A very good way to lose your investment.
    12-12-13 08:09 AM
  5. heymaggie's Avatar
    A very good way to lose your investment.
    What? But a guy on the Internet said that this was a manipulated stock price and that the company is worth a lot more! Where is the accountability?
    12-12-13 08:17 AM
  6. europolska00's Avatar
    What? But a guy on the Internet said that this was a manipulated stock price and that the company is worth a lot more! Where is the accountability?
    Yes, the company is insanely undervalued. The stock market says BlackBerry is only valued at $2.9 Billion. BlackBerry almost has that in cash alone, not to mention their physical assets and patents. So if you were literally just to liquidate the company, the company is worth way more than $2.9 Billion.

    The stock market is trying to convince you that $1 is actually only worth 0.50 cents. I haven't even factored in the potential value of BES or BBM. So yes, something isn't right here and accountability should be questioned.

    If you don't know the numbers you should be quiet. People like you are part of the problem, there is something shady happening here. You like to sit on your high horse and laugh at people that they are following conspiracy theories. Well, have you considered they might be right about foul activity or investigate the numbers yourself? Or do you just regurgitate what you're told too?

    Posted via CB10
    12-12-13 08:32 AM
  7. anon1727506's Avatar
    Analyst and weathermen....

    Neither knows for sure what will happen tomorrow, and their long range predictions are more than likely going to be wrong. And most everyone knows that (except for the OP).
    europolska00 and clickitykeys like this.
    12-12-13 08:32 AM
  8. heymaggie's Avatar
    I'm trying to estimate the actual odds that majority of stock market participants including individual investors, institutional investors, analysis's, hedge funds, mutual funds, pension fund, investment banks, Prem Watsa/Warren Buffet types, and all of the technology companies who are in and are trying to get into mobile are wrong when they took a pass on $9/share BBRY. And the corollary that the actual truth is found on the Crackberry.com forums, particularly one thread. Seems like a long shot to me.
    JeepBB, Roo Zilla, codehut and 2 others like this.
    12-12-13 09:20 AM
  9. abwan11's Avatar
    If I'm selling my old Ferrari and a buyer shows up who knows the car isn't one of the most desirable models or he feels he can buy a newer model for better value, or he just wants the rims and tires and not the whole car, then I would say see ya, no matter what he thinks about it. Opinions are free.

    Posted via CB10
    12-12-13 09:47 AM
  10. heymaggie's Avatar
    If owning BBRY has additional intrinsic value to you than the financial aspect then feel free to accumulate as much as you wish.

    It's a bargain if you love Blackberry that much. What you can't really expect, though, is that your Ferrari is worth more to you so a buyer should pay more or that the overall market undervalues these Ferraris and expect someone to pay more simply based on your opinion.
    JeepBB and Roo Zilla like this.
    12-12-13 10:17 AM
  11. alternator77's Avatar
    The same market that values twitter at 24 billion dollars???
    Yeah there credible...as credible as a proctologist performing a heart transplant .

    Posted via CB10
    12-12-13 10:29 AM
  12. europolska00's Avatar
    If owning BBRY has additional intrinsic value to you than the financial aspect then feel free to accumulate as much as you wish.

    It's a bargain if you love Blackberry that much. What you can't really expect, though, is that your Ferrari is worth more to you so a buyer should pay more or that the overall market undervalues these Ferraris and expect someone to pay more simply based on your opinion.
    No, your comparison is seriously flawed. Over $2 Billion cash on hand is $2 Billion cash on hand. Period. It isn't what I feel it is worth. Then you need to liquidate their assets, not at what I think they are worth, but market value accounting for depreciation. This has nothing to do with "what I think the Ferrari is worth." It is the actual value of cash on hand and assets sold off at liquidation. That alone is worth over the $2.9 Billion the market says the company is worth.

    As, I mentioned in my first post, that isn't even factoring in the value of BBM or BES. Which is definitely not worth zero, even though the value of those is, I agree, extremely subjective. You missed the point of my first post sir. That being, that at bare minimum if you sold off the parts of that company and account for the cash they have, it is worth more than the market before we account for the value of subjective assets like their heavy patent portfolio, BES, and BBM.

    In other words, I'm account for that Ferrari being sold of for what it is worth on the used car market, not account for how much I think it is worth. Good day.

    Posted via CB10
    12-12-13 10:41 AM
  13. FSeverino's Avatar
    What? But a guy on the Internet said that this was a manipulated stock price and that the company is worth a lot more! Where is the accountability?
    Just because one person is wrong doesn't mean everyone is. The manipulation with BlackBerry has been going hard for a long time. Look at all the 'another x lose jobs' articles for the last 3 months. BlackBerry announced they were cutting 4500 jobs... every cut since then has been PART of that, yet the 'media' and 'analysts' use that to bash the company and the stock.

    Posted via CB10
    12-12-13 11:19 AM
  14. anon1727506's Avatar
    No, your comparison is seriously flawed. Over $2 Billion cash on hand is $2 Billion cash on hand. Period. It isn't what I feel it is worth. Then you need to liquidate their assets, not at what I think they are worth, but market value accounting for depreciation. This has nothing to do with "what I think the Ferrari is worth." It is the actual value of cash on hand and assets sold off at liquidation. That alone is worth over the $2.9 Billion the market says the company is worth.

    As, I mentioned in my first post, that isn't even factoring in the value of BBM or BES. Which is definitely not worth zero, even though the value of those is, I agree, extremely subjective. You missed the point of my first post sir. That being, that at bare minimum if you sold off the parts of that company and account for the cash they have, it is worth more than the market before we account for the value of subjective assets like their heavy patent portfolio, BES, and BBM.

    In other words, I'm account for that Ferrari being sold of for what it is worth on the used car market, not account for how much I think it is worth. Good day.

    Posted via CB10
    Does not work that way.....

    And having Cash today does not relate to having Cash in three months or six months.

    Or if the worst happened and they closed the doors tomorrow and auctioned off everything.... they still have commitments that have to meet with suppliers and many of their customers, do you know how much that is? And that is best case for the stock value. Some expectations are that someone will still come in a buy the whole at a discount and sell it themselves and reap the profit.

    The true "value" may never be realized by shareholders, and the Stock Price reflects that.
    JeepBB likes this.
    12-12-13 11:26 AM
  15. Tariq Nasir's Avatar
    Do you always complain when the stock market gives you the opportunity to conveniently make lots of money by knowing that a company like Blackberry is worth a lot more than its current stock price reflects? You should be happily buying a lot of undervalued BBRY rather than worrying about price manipulation.

    The Prem Watsa's of the world don't listen to analysts. That's how he was able to raise $9 per share to take BBRY private last month.
    He didn't raise 9 bucks per share. He offered but then backed out.

    Posted via CB10
    12-12-13 11:51 AM
  16. sixpacker's Avatar
    Just because one person is wrong doesn't mean everyone is. The manipulation with BlackBerry has been going hard for a long time. Look at all the 'another x lose jobs' articles for the last 3 months. BlackBerry announced they were cutting 4500 jobs... every cut since then has been PART of that, yet the 'media' and 'analysts' use that to bash the company and the stock.

    Posted via CB10
    Lets face it announcing the 4500 job losses without any details was one of many dumb moves.

    All it did was **** off staff, scare off app developers and partners.

    Perhaps you can enlighten us all as to how many of the 4500 have been fired and how many are still to be cut?
    JeepBB likes this.
    12-12-13 11:55 AM
  17. abwan11's Avatar
    Does not work that way.....

    And having Cash today does not relate to having Cash in three months or six months.

    Or if the worst happened and they closed the doors tomorrow and auctioned off everything.... they still have commitments that have to meet with suppliers and many of their customers, do you know how much that is? And that is best case for the stock value. Some expectations are that someone will still come in a buy the whole at a discount and sell it themselves and reap the profit.

    The true "value" may never be realized by shareholders, and the Stock Price reflects that.
    For someone who is "in the know" and doesn't believe analyst or weather men, you sure sound like one.

    Posted via CB10
    12-12-13 12:16 PM
  18. Cashgap's Avatar
    My question at this point is simple: Have so-called "analysts" turned into nothing more than a legal way to manipulate�stock prices and, if so, what does that say about the value of so-called "research" shops?
    My answer is simple. No. Not everything you don't like or don't understand is bad.

    The stock market is trying to convince you that $1 is actually only worth 0.50 cents. I haven't even factored in the potential value of BES or BBM. So yes, something isn't right here and accountability should be questioned.
    Keep in mind that up to this point, the stock market has been either RIGHT or TOO OPTIMISTIC on Blackberry. So this is a market of educated users that believes the cash will be gone by the time liquidation can be completed. A year ago it was "They have $Xb of cash and $Yb of patents and everyone knows the ____ will be a market killer, the market is INSANE to value Blackberry this low!!!".

    Two years ago it was "They have $2Xb of cash and $Yb of patents, and they've just named THORSTEN HEINS as CEO, the absolute engineered perfection person to fix EVERYTHING, and Playbook is getting BB10 soon, the market must be NUTS to value Blackberry this low!!!".

    Three years ago it was "They have $8Xb of cash, iPhone is a fad, the top secret tablet is going to be a TOOL not a TOY and CRUSH the market, the market must be STARK RAVING MAD to value Blackberry this low!!!".

    At each turn, the market's only error has been not to value Blackberry low enough. Why is today different?
    amazinglygraceless and JeepBB like this.
    12-12-13 12:53 PM
  19. ElGusta's Avatar
    2 billion cash is limiting when there is severance to be paid to outgoing employees (4500, maybe more) on the layoff block, restructuring costs, as well as the potential of bb detaching itself from hardware production. These all cost money.
    JeepBB likes this.
    12-12-13 12:55 PM
  20. Cashgap's Avatar
    He didn't raise 9 bucks per share. He offered but then backed out.
    Oh, that's a quibble. Depending on which thread you read, that's either because he has a super-secret hatred for Blackberry and wanted to depress the stock price, or because he has a super-secret love for Blackberry and wanted to ___________ (I don't know, something along the lines of underpants gnomes).

    Don't quibble about the fact that he never had a path to raising that money. That's just details.
    JeepBB and amazinglygraceless like this.
    12-12-13 12:56 PM
  21. heymaggie's Avatar
    There are plenty of real liabilities that aren't on the books. For example, the commitments to the suppliers to order certain quantities. Those have to be paid if things are shut down. How about unsold devices in the channel that can be returned? How about severance packages for employees who will be laid off?

    Saying that you can just liquidate and walk away is like saying that you can just go to the bank, withdraw all your cash and just leave town. You have a mortgage or a lease that still has to be paid, you have bills that will come in, etc.
    JeepBB likes this.
    12-12-13 01:01 PM
  22. JeepBB's Avatar
    2 billion cash is limiting when there is severance to be paid to outgoing employees (4500, maybe more) on the layoff block, restructuring costs, as well as the potential of bb detaching itself from hardware production. These all cost money.
    Agreed.

    And in support of your post, there was that article over there (BlackBerry Smartphone Business Would Cost Too Much To Kill | BGR) to the effect that it would cost as much to shut down the hardware side as it would cost to keep it running.

    From the article:

    “We believe refocusing its business on areas where Blackberry has been losing share as the market has shifted away from it is likely to lead to substantial operating losses going forward as management attempts to put the company on strong footing in a shifting environment. Oddly enough, simply shutting the business is also not likely to add value as the separation costs and purchase commitments that we estimate would be incurred could exceed the company’s cash balance and would likely require substantial renegotiating of agreements with manufacturers.”

    He continued, “In short, we see no clear-cut strategy, simple or otherwise, to help BBRY out of the strategic box it finds itself in and believe wind-down costs could come close to wiping out a great deal of the current cash balance on which the current valuation is based while the ongoing cash flow from the legacy Services business should dry up quickly. Short of a longshot turnaround and commercialization of the BBM business, we see few options for the company.”

    Ouch.

    It would be funny if it weren't so sad.

    Between a rock and a hard place.

    On the ER call, Chen will need to be very convincing, and the detailed turnaround plan he must reveal has to contain the spark of business genius, or ... else!

    If he tries the usual mantra of "we're executing our strategic transition plan" or similar meaningless phrases... the markets will hammer BB.
    kbz1960 likes this.
    12-12-13 01:03 PM
  23. JeepBB's Avatar
    Oh, that's a quibble. Depending on which thread you read, that's either because he has a super-secret hatred for Blackberry and wanted to depress the stock price, or because he has a super-secret love for Blackberry and wanted to ___________ (I don't know, something along the lines of underpants gnomes).

    Don't quibble about the fact that he never had a path to raising that money. That's just details.
    LOL

    I am reassured that a man with access to so many guns is here talking so sensibly!

    Tho' you realise the true believers won't listen to voices of reason?
    12-12-13 01:14 PM
  24. abwan11's Avatar
    LOL

    I am reassured that a man with access to so many guns is here talking so sensibly!

    Tho' you realise the true believers won't listen to voices of reason?
    BGR Is the voice of reason??

    Posted via CB10
    12-12-13 01:26 PM
  25. JeepBB's Avatar
    BGR Is the voice of reason??
    I was actually referring to the man with the guns as the voice of reason, because he is, but ... BGR? ... Very often, yes.

    Despite the unreasoning hatred on CB for it as a source, BGR has often provided real news and scoops on BB. News that was often ridiculed on the CB forums... before being revealed as the truth.

    I'll admit that BGR is no friend of BB and the BB "strategy", and often delights in pointing out unpleasant truths, but I can't recall BGR ever posting an outright lie.

    BB spokesmen on the other hand, up to and including the great Thor, used to lie issue misleading statements all the time!

    In this instance, BGR is reporting the thoughts of the same Citigroup analyst quoted by ChrisU on the CB front pages. ChrisU's take on the report isn't any more positive than BGR's BTW...
    12-12-13 01:53 PM
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