12-05-13 08:17 PM
808 ... 2930313233
tools
  1. johnenglish's Avatar
    novelty is a big factor here ... nerds love novelties ... and what nerds love ... consumers will.
    True to a certain point. However, the big question remains: What is novel about BB10? We don't know. If everything works out the way RIM says it will it sounds like we'll have something on equal footing with iOS, Android, and Windows Phone. There's no incentive to change especially since people will have invested several years into their ecosystems.

    What nerds love consumers don't always love. Tech nerds care about the details, the specs, customizability, etc. Most regular consumers don't care about that stuff. They just want something that looks nice and works properly. They don't care about things like dual core vs quad core.
    JBenn911 and anon1727506 like this.
    07-20-12 12:01 AM
  2. johnenglish's Avatar
    I can't stand this rationale. Everyone loves to say RIM is late to the market. They CREATED the market. Apple was five years late to the market, Android was eight years late to the market. There's no such things late to the market. If you have a sound product and deliver it properly people will buy.
    Wasn't Hyundai about 80 years 'late' to the market?
    Hyundai had a unique buying proposition: super cheap cars. That's why people bought them. To a certain extent that's still their angle. Just like Lexus in the early 1990s they're saying they have cars that are 90% as good as BMW and Mercedes but at 60% of the cost.

    Android is already covering the super cheap low end to the smart phone market. Right now BB10's selling proposition is "We're just as good as iOS, Android, and Windows Phone." OK fine, but why should I switch if what I'm using now works fine? They need something to really set them apart.

    Look at the iPhone when it was introduced in 2007. It was completely different from all other phones on that market. That's what set it apart. That's why people bought it.

    RIM may have created the phone+email device market but Apple created the fully integrated touchscreen smartphone market.

    You can absolutely be too late to market. It doesn't matter how good your product is, unless there's a compelling reason to buy it versus established competitors your product will never go anywhere.
    JeepBB, anon1727506, gg22 and 1 others like this.
    07-20-12 12:08 AM
  3. hurds's Avatar
    I give, you win. I can't have a meaningful dialogue with someone who thinks "Rim isn't doing so horrible" and "RIM is in the strongest position possible and this is why the competition fears them. You might not see it but that's fine." "strongest possible position" how can that be in any rational universe.

    Here's a thought. Let me know, factually, how RIM is so strong. Sales numbers, stock price and any other verifiable metric says RIM is in a death spiral, sorry you don't see that.

    I know you can't or won't because "I'm basing my beliefs on one thing. RIM knows and will always know far more than you ever will about the tech and mobile industry. " That same arrogance got RIM where it is today, thinking they know better than the consumer. Please go back and read the entire thread. Like so many posters before you, you can tell the realists we are wrong and time will likely prove you wrong. Prem Watsa has $400M worth of wrong. Your colleagues posted about how wrong we were ab out RIMM stock, because Prem Watsa knows more than I ever would, yet he's lost $400M+ at this point. Sometimes smart people are wrong. Sometimes once great companies lose their way and fail, some bounce back. I'm hoping they bounce back, but they aren't giving me much to work with.

    Its not unintelligent to hope RIM succeeds, but point out how they keep shooting themselves in the foot, its just the RIM reality. What is unintelligent is to ignore the facts and place all of your faith blindly in those that have failed you for the last 2 years.

    Thats fine if you agree to disagree. I can't have meaningful dialogue with someone who just repeats whats in the news (bolded sound bites) and can't see past the current situation or even 6 months ahead.

    But you do have to realise all these people in this thread may seem incorrect right at this moment, but heres the thing, Apple and Samsung don't get a gold medal and are declared the winners forever based on today. Things are just getting started. I don't know how people think things wont change and can't change. People really need to wake up a bit. Android and Apple apparently came out of nowhere to blow past RIM, why can't the same thing happen to them. It can. And it can happen over night. Prem Watsa said this turn around could take 5 years. I'm starting to believe people really have trouble trying to look past a week infront of them or come to there own conclusions.

    You know what I find really impressive. RIM still has the market share it does with devices that aren't deemed worthy by many posters here.

    Facts
    - QNX is in 30 million cars and has 64% of the infotainement market which could grow toa $16.4 billion dollar market by 2016
    - Apple lost a billion dollars, APPLE LOST A BILLION DOLLARS, before they made their turn around (but i know rim doesnt have the magical steve jobs which is the only way a company can turn itself around)
    - Android and iOs have both become mature operating systems which in no way can compare to the capabilites of QNX, now this is something I have come to believe based on what Ive read and seen so I guess its not necessarily a fact but time will tell.
    - Mobile computing is a growing market
    - RIM has a monthly service business that none of the other companies have
    - RIM makes money direct from handset sales (google doesnt)
    - RIM has products for both low end and high markets, right now with BB7.
    - RIM is used by 90% of fortune 500 companies
    - RIMs security capabilites the other companies can't compete with
    - RIM makes the best keyboards on the market
    - RIM has 2.2 billion cash
    - RIM is focusing on cutting costs by more than a billion
    - RIM is doing extremely well im emerging markets and it #1 in many countries

    I get Apple and Samsung are making a lot of money right now but that can change very quickly. Apple is popular right now, but that can change over night. Google may decide to start favoring Motorola, because seriously, why would they carry this dead weight company that is loosing them money when they could start creating revenue directly off handset sales and we've seen the unified approach works. Rubenstein or whatever has even said google wants to do hardware.

    I get the stock is horrible. If you base your opinion off the stock, they I dont value your opinion. The stock price is based off perception and lags what is actually going on in the market.
    Sales are down but they could be indicative of a trend in the overall markert (version sold less smartphones this quarter than the same quarter last year) and RIM is going through a transition, so I'll actually upgrade my statement to RIM is doing AMAZING considering the circumstances. RIM has also increased their subscriber base year over year. Subscribers mean continuing revenue. So you can continue to bring up the negative things everyone already knows and we've alread heard before but I think its a waste of time.

    Saying 'any other verifiable metric' seems like saying 'etc' on the end of a sentence and acting like its an additional arugment. Its not.

    I think you get to personal with it. 'they haven't given me much to work with' or 'they've failed me for 2 years'. If you get this caught up in it I really suggest buying an apple product. They get great consumer satification rating and you'd be a happier person instead of waiting around for RIM. Theres 7 billion people in this world so it won't be a great lose to them.
    Last edited by hurds; 07-20-12 at 02:39 AM.
    07-20-12 02:32 AM
  4. hurds's Avatar
    Oh,

    Forgot one little thing RIM has coming

    BB10
    07-20-12 02:37 AM
  5. OMGitworks's Avatar
    Fair enough, we can agree to respectfully disagree. I will just say that it is universally accepted that stock price is considered to be a LEADING indicator, not a lagging one. RIM's market share is falling, that is also generally considered a universal metric. Still waiting to hear what BB10 will have that others don't or how the hardware of the new phones will be equal to or better to what is already out today. These are the things that worry me about RIM's future. I am sure we can't convince each other of much on these points.

    I hope you are right about everything else. In the meantime, I have hit my 2 year Verizon upgrade and had really hoped a BB10 phone would be available first by now based on earlier estimates, then by the end of the year, now we know it will be next year. I would only want the physical keyboard so maybe another 9 months or so. I am trying to hold out and wait but I am not sure what will happen. I think there are a lot of consumers and corporations who won't wait. Let's circle around in December and then again in March of 2013 and see where RIM is at? Still hoping you will be right and I get a great phone Q1 next year.
    anon1727506 likes this.
    07-20-12 07:02 AM
  6. bk1022's Avatar
    Stock price is neither a leading indicator nor a lagging indicator. It is a "present" indicator. The current sentiment on RIM is poor. The stock price is poor even though there is a good probability of an improvement in their financial situation over the next 12 months. You don't believe me? That's because people can't predict the future, which is why stock price IS NOT A LEADING INDICATOR.

    Second, while it is true that RIM has the potential for a great product with BB10, a successful business is 90% about successful marketing and 10% about product. The iPhone is a sleek looking piece of obsolete technology, except that no one cares, so it is not obsolete.

    I fully expect that as Android phones become more compelling, they will break the Apple hypnosis, and it will fragment the market, which is good for RIM. With BB10, RIM's ecosystem won't reset after every single GD version change, which will be appreciated by developers.

    There is plenty of reason for optimism for RIM, but there is plenty of reason their marketing might just flop.
    07-20-12 08:01 AM
  7. ColdFistOfTruth's Avatar
    Thats fine if you agree to disagree. I can't have meaningful dialogue with someone who just repeats whats in the news (bolded sound bites)
    So you're saying no one here can do their own thinking?

    -CFOT
    07-20-12 08:34 AM
  8. OMGitworks's Avatar
    Stock price is neither a leading indicator nor a lagging indicator. It is a "present" indicator. The current sentiment on RIM is poor. The stock price is poor even though there is a good probability of an improvement in their financial situation over the next 12 months. You don't believe me? That's because people can't predict the future, which is why stock price IS NOT A LEADING INDICATOR.
    Maybe it is semantics, but I think you are wrong that the price doesn't reflect future expectations and is a prediction indication of where the future stock price is heading. "Leading indicators are used to predict changes ..., but are not always accurate."

    If more people thought that the there is "a good probability of an improvement in their financial situation over the next 12 months" RIMM would be rising, not falling like it is. That is a fundamental economic principle and trying to predict the future value of the stock is the underlying basis of the stock market. There are millions of people doing this exact thing everyday. They can't ACCURATELY predict the price but people sell because they think it will go down and people buy because they think it will go up, thus both the Seller and Buyer are trying to predict the future price of the stock. Just a few ways to say it better than I could or did:

    "In financial markets, stock valuation is the method of calculating theoretical values of companies and their stocks. The main use of these methods is to predict future market prices, or more generally potential market prices, and thus to profit from price movement stocks that are judged undervalued (with respect to their theoretical value) are bought, while stocks that are judged overvalued are sold, in the expectation that undervalued stocks will, on the whole, rise in value, while overvalued stocks will, on the whole, fall."

    In the view of fundamental analysis, stock valuation based on fundamentals aims to give an estimate of their intrinsic value of the stock, based on predictions of the future cash flows and profitability of the business. Fundamental analysis may be replaced or augmented by market criteria what the market will pay for the stock, without any necessary notion of intrinsic value. These can be combined as "predictions of future cash flows/profits (fundamental)", together with "what will the market pay for these profits?". These can be seen as "supply and demand" sides what underlies the supply (of stock), and what drives the (market) demand for stock?"

    "Stock prices are set by a combination of factors that no analyst can consistently understand or predict. In general, economists say, they reflect the long-term earnings potential of companies. Investors are attracted to stocks of companies they expect will earn substantial profits in the future; because many people wish to buy stocks of such companies, prices of these stocks tend to rise. On the other hand, investors are reluctant to purchase stocks of companies that face bleak earnings prospects; because fewer people wish to buy and more wish to sell these stocks, prices fall."

    "In the broad sense, stock prices are based on investors' expectations of the future value of a company -- its future earning power. But the actual selling price, at any given moment, is that at which investors are willing to buy and sell the stock.
    Last edited by OMGitworks; 07-20-12 at 09:04 AM.
    anon1727506, Shlooky and sosumi11 like this.
    07-20-12 08:58 AM
  9. hootyhoo's Avatar

    Second, while it is true that RIM has the potential for a great product with BB10, a successful business is 90% about successful marketing and 10% about product. The iPhone is a sleek looking piece of obsolete technology, except that no one cares, so it is not obsolete.

    I fully expect that as Android phones become more compelling, they will break the Apple hypnosis, and it will fragment the market, which is good for RIM.
    If this was true, a mac would be on 95% of desktops instead of a pc.

    (News flash, android already outsells ios. By a lot. )
    07-20-12 10:42 AM
  10. randall2580's Avatar
    As I understand technical analysis (something I do for a living), price of anything (stock, commodity, widget) is believed to be the reflection of the sum total of everything we know at that given moment about that stock, commodity, widget. 6.68 (where the stock is as I write this) is considered by technical traders as fair value for all we know about RIM - at this moment.

    That will change over time as RIM succeed in convincing the market they have a compelling product - or it won't. As we find out more, over time, the stock price will reflect the additional knowledge.

    We have a lot of little paradigms in trading, one that we use a lot is "the trend is your friend". I know someone posted a chart the other day of RIM so I won't again, but unless and until that trend changes its going to be dangerous to buy this stock.
    Superfly_FR likes this.
    07-20-12 11:01 AM
  11. bk1022's Avatar
    Stock prices cannot be leading indicators, because there would be an arbitrage opportunity. The current price should represent the average of the sum of each participant's perspective of the distribution of potential future values. And the distributions are weighted by how the size of bets those participants are taking.

    If your distribution yields a different average price, then you may expect to profit from the difference. However, even when you profit, you don't know if it is because you are smarter, or because the realized discrete result happened to be favorable.

    Look at it from the simplest point of view: A stock is currently trading at $X with only two discrete outcomes by time t. It has a 40% chance of losing $10, and a 60% chance of gaining $7. The true value of the stock is then $X + 20 cents less the interest cost of holding the security. But let's say you actually thought it had a 30% chance of losing $7.50 and a 70% chance of gaining $3.5. So, you also think the stock is worth $X + 20 cents. However, even though you agree on the current effective value of the stock, you disagree with the market on the likelihood of recovery by an absolute 10% margin. In any case, you would have a 70% of a $3.50 profit and self-confirmation that you knew something more than everyone else, whereas the intrinsic error was only 20 cents.

    In the above example, it is difficult to ascribe the term, "Leading Indicator." What exactly is the price of $X predicting in the above example?
    app_Developer likes this.
    07-20-12 11:02 AM
  12. OMGitworks's Avatar
    As I understand technical analysis (something I do for a living), price of anything (stock, commodity, widget) is believed to be the reflection of the sum total of everything we know at that given moment about that stock, commodity, widget. 6.68 (where the stock is as I write this) is considered by technical traders as fair value for all we know about RIM - at this moment.

    That will change over time as RIM succeed in convincing the market they have a compelling product - or it won't. As we find out more, over time, the stock price will reflect the additional knowledge.

    We have a lot of little paradigms in trading, one that we use a lot is "the trend is your friend". I know someone posted a chart the other day of RIM so I won't again, but unless and until that trend changes its going to be dangerous to buy this stock.
    Good to have a professional chime in, thank you. Do you agree that the current price reflects a component attributable to the expected future return and prospects of the company and is forward looking and not lagging? Just wondering. The RIMM chart sure is ugly.
    07-20-12 11:07 AM
  13. sleepngbear's Avatar
    As I understand technical analysis (something I do for a living), price of anything (stock, commodity, widget) is believed to be the reflection of the sum total of everything we know at that given moment about that stock, commodity, widget. 6.68 (where the stock is as I write this) is considered by technical traders as fair value for all we know about RIM - at this moment.

    That will change over time as RIM succeed in convincing the market they have a compelling product - or it won't. As we find out more, over time, the stock price will reflect the additional knowledge.

    We have a lot of little paradigms in trading, one that we use a lot is "the trend is your friend". I know someone posted a chart the other day of RIM so I won't again, but unless and until that trend changes its going to be dangerous to buy this stock.
    Excellent points. I'd also like to add that Apple's stock price didn't start its astronomical climb until after the company had clearly demonstrated that it had a product and a strategy that could sustain growth for the long term. Apple stock dipped below $100 as late as 2009, well after the introduction of the first iPhone. It had a slow, steady rise to around $400 in late 2011, and shot up over $500 earlier this year, a full five years after iPhone was first announced. And it will continue to climb until after it becomes obvious to all that they can no longer sustain that same kind of growth.
    randall2580 likes this.
    07-20-12 11:27 AM
  14. jelp2's Avatar
    Hyundai had a unique buying proposition: super cheap cars. That's why people bought them. To a certain extent that's still their angle. Just like Lexus in the early 1990s they're saying they have cars that are 90% as good as BMW and Mercedes but at 60% of the cost.

    Android is already covering the super cheap low end to the smart phone market. Right now BB10's selling proposition is "We're just as good as iOS, Android, and Windows Phone." OK fine, but why should I switch if what I'm using now works fine? They need something to really set them apart.

    Look at the iPhone when it was introduced in 2007. It was completely different from all other phones on that market. That's what set it apart. That's why people bought it.

    RIM may have created the phone+email device market but Apple created the fully integrated touchscreen smartphone market.

    You can absolutely be too late to market. It doesn't matter how good your product is, unless there's a compelling reason to buy it versus established competitors your product will never go anywhere.
    That just made my point... Apple made something different that piqued the interest in people to buy it. It's now an old OS. RIM is building from ground up a new OS, just as Apple did eight years ago, if it is revolutionary, innovating and marketed properly, of course it's going to sell. RIM is already an established company, whether or not the stock markets likes it, RIM not only has a foot in the door, they are inside. They are a brand name.
    By the way, Hyundai is not super cheap. They came out the same time Yugo did. Yugo was super cheap and they're not around. Cheap does not equal success, value equals success. Hyundai is just one example of many in the history of retail products. How about Dyson, new technology, 100 yrs later, but still a vacuum.

    Right now BB10's selling proposition isn't we're as good as the others. It's better than anything on the market, revolutioary, things that haven't been seen before, innovating. BB7 is compared to everything on the market now.
    Last edited by jelp2; 07-20-12 at 12:10 PM.
    07-20-12 12:01 PM
  15. hootyhoo's Avatar
    That just made my point... Apple made something different that piqued the interest in people to buy it. It's now an old OS. RIM is building from ground up a new OS, just as Apple did eight years ago, if it is revolutionary, innovating and marketed properly, of course it's going to sell. RIM is already an established company, whether or not the stock markets likes it, RIM not only has a foot in the door, they are inside. They are a brand name.
    By the way, Hyundai is not super cheap. They came out the same time Yugo did. Yugo was super cheap and they're not around. Cheap does not equal success, value equals success. Hyundai is just one example of many in the history of retail products. How about Dyson, new technology, 100 yrs later, but still a vacuum.
    Most people don't care about the os. They want a simple to use phone with lots of apps. That's it. Ask an iphone owner what os their phone is running and I'll bet most of them couldn't tell you. Ask them if their favorite store or coffee shop has an app for their phone and THAT they'll know.
    07-20-12 12:09 PM
  16. jelp2's Avatar
    Most people don't care about the os. They want a simple to use phone with lots of apps. That's it. Ask an iphone owner what os their phone is running and I'll bet most of them couldn't tell you. Ask them if their favorite store or coffee shop has an app for their phone and THAT they'll know.
    They don't know they care about the os. But in reality, it's the os that is running the phone.
    07-20-12 12:11 PM
  17. hootyhoo's Avatar
    They don't know they care about the os. But in reality, it's the os that is running the phone.
    But this is rim's biggest problem. They can market bb10 until the cows come home, but if people don't see the posters with appX is now available for bb, bb will not be on most folks shopping list. No one that I know who has switched to the iphone (and it is most), switched because someone told them it is running ios or the X kernel. They bought an iphone because it is solid, easy to use and has the apps they want or need.
    07-20-12 12:19 PM
  18. anon1727506's Avatar
    But this is rim's biggest problem. They can market bb10 until the cows come home, but if people don't see the posters with appX is now available for bb, bb will not be on most folks shopping list. No one that I know who has switched to the iphone (and it is most), switched because someone told them it is running ios or the X kernel. They bought an iphone because it is solid, easy to use and has the apps they want or need.
    In the last few months I've noticed a large number of friends and family that have upgrade their dumb phones and even Android devices to iPhones. The main reason I've found is because someone else had one and really loved it. Wither it is a conspiracy (by aliens to get all humans to use their new mind control devices), or maybe just that the iPhone is a good reliable device with very few complaints by users. Either way RIM will have a hard time (impossible I guess if it is aliens) countering that with just a new OS and updated hardware.

    But if they have the time (money to keep things going), and if they can get all the ecosystem in place - BB10 will have a long future.
    Last edited by scalemaster34; 07-20-12 at 01:48 PM.
    07-20-12 01:44 PM
  19. johnenglish's Avatar
    That just made my point... Apple made something different that piqued the interest in people to buy it. It's now an old OS. RIM is building from ground up a new OS, just as Apple did eight years ago, if it is revolutionary, innovating and marketed properly, of course it's going to sell. RIM is already an established company, whether or not the stock markets likes it, RIM not only has a foot in the door, they are inside. They are a brand name.
    iOS may very well be an old OS but people are happy with the way it works and that's what matters. 99% of people out there couldn't care less about the OS on their phone or how it's made. They just want something that does what they want it to and iOS delivers on that.
    By the way, Hyundai is not super cheap. They came out the same time Yugo did. Yugo was super cheap and they're not around. Cheap does not equal success, value equals success. Hyundai is just one example of many in the history of retail products. How about Dyson, new technology, 100 yrs later, but still a vacuum.
    When Hyundai first came to North America, it absolutely was a super cheap vehicle. The Yugo was a bad vehicle; that's why it failed. Hyundai was cheap but tolerable; ask anyone who owned a Pony. They built upon those successes to create the company that exists today.

    Dyson is successful becuase they created a premium product. Their vacuums, one of which I own, work better than most other vaccums on the market. That's why they're successful. If they just made a vacuum like all the others out there and charged double the price they wouldn't have been in business long.
    Right now BB10's selling proposition isn't we're as good as the others. It's better than anything on the market, revolutioary, things that haven't been seen before, innovating. BB7 is compared to everything on the market now.
    BB10 has no selling proposition. It doesn't exist. Everything we hear is pure speculation until we have the final product in our hands.

    My point is that it's always possible for a new entry to succeed in an established market but it requires something totally different or innovative. Delivering on the status quo is not a reciepe for success. BB10 may very well be something new a different but until we have the devices in our hands no one can say. All we people can do is repeat the claims made by management and watched canned demos of the product.
    Last edited by JohnEnglish; 07-20-12 at 02:26 PM.
    anon1727506 likes this.
    07-20-12 01:47 PM
  20. johnenglish's Avatar
    They don't know they care about the os. But in reality, it's the os that is running the phone.
    Yes but the end result is they don't care. Just like many people don't know anything about the engineering involved in their cars. They buy the car based on emotion and recommendations from friends. Technology is the same thing. As long as it fulfills whatever need they had the reality of the situation doesn't really matter to them.
    Last edited by JohnEnglish; 07-20-12 at 01:57 PM.
    bk1022 likes this.
    07-20-12 01:51 PM
  21. njblackberry's Avatar
    Another day! Another new low.
    Where is the bottom?
    07-20-12 04:25 PM
  22. morlock_man's Avatar
    It's interesting that since RIM has over 2 billion in the bank, the current market value of their entire company is only around 1.6 billion dollars. (Market value of 3.6 - 2.2 = 1.6)

    Their entire patent portfolio, their ownership of The Astonishing Tribe and QNX, their 10,000+ employees, all their real estate and premium stores and their 78 million customers world-wide are only worth 1.6 billion. That seems insane.

    Just looking at their current customer base of 78 million, ignoring any other portion of the company, each customer would only be worth $20 and some change.

    If a fifth of those customers buy a BB10 phone when its released in January and they turn a profit of say, $75 per phone, they'll have another billion dollars in the bank and have cash reserves that are double their current value.

    How could anyone not think this stock is oversold?
    07-20-12 06:21 PM
  23. cleacy's Avatar
    Just looking at their current customer base of 78 million, ignoring any other portion of the company, each customer would only be worth $20 and some change.

    If a fifth of those customers buy a BB10 phone when its released in January and they turn a profit of say, $75 per phone, they'll have another billion dollars in the bank and have cash reserves that are double their current value.

    How could anyone not think this stock is oversold?
    A fifth of 78 million is 15.6 million. To move that many phones in the first month (quarter?) of release, they also need to:

    1) Actually release the product
    2) Manufacture them.
    3) Sell them.

    The stock is where it is because the market doesn't think RIM's going to be successful. Will the price go up in they are? Certainly. But the general consensus is "I'll believe it when I see it".
    07-20-12 06:54 PM
  24. jelp2's Avatar
    iOS may very well be an old OS but people are happy with the way it works and that's what matters. 99% of people out there couldn't care less about the OS on their phone or how it's made. They just want something that does what they want it to and iOS delivers on that.
    When Hyundai first came to North America, it absolutely was a super cheap vehicle. The Yugo was a bad vehicle; that's why it failed. Hyundai was cheap but tolerable; ask anyone who owned a Pony. They built upon those successes to create the company that exists today.

    Dyson is successful becuase they created a premium product. Their vacuums, one of which I own, work better than most other vaccums on the market. That's why they're successful. If they just made a vacuum like all the others out there and charged double the price they wouldn't have been in business long.
    BB10 has no selling proposition. It doesn't exist. Everything we hear is pure speculation until we have the final product in our hands.

    My point is that it's always possible for a new entry to succeed in an established market but it requires something totally different or innovative. Delivering on the status quo is not a reciepe for success. BB10 may very well be something new a different but until we have the devices in our hands no one can say. All we people can do is repeat the claims made by management and watched canned demos of the product.

    That's exactly right, until we know. So saying it's too late to the market is nonsense. Hopefully, BB10 will be brand new, innovating and fresh, it has to be or they will be delivering as you said, a status quo product which no one will look twice at.
    The way I'm looking at it is, the top brass of RIM are not wasting their time and future/present reputations on a product that they know will fail or will not meet the demands of the public. They have a future to think about. If they're going through all the motions doubting that BB10 is going to work and figure they will just sell the company if it doesn't, then they are putting the final nail in their "career" coffins for the rest of their lives. I don't think that's their plan. They're putting up with a lot of pressure and negative reviews and dealing with it. They know what BB10 can do and have faith, we don't know but have to believe.

    People may be happy about iOS and how it works right now. People were happy about BB and how they worked until the ante was upped by Apple. Apple, now may be in the same boat RIM was when the iPhone emerged, with the arrival of BB10. BB10 can very well or should I say, has to up the ante and then it will be up to the other companies to follow. Even the littlest thing with the predictive virtual keyboard RIM showed a couple months ago piqued enough interest for a developer to attempt to make for the iPhone.
    For now all we can do is sit here and speculate and wait the long wait for BB10 to arrive.
    07-20-12 06:56 PM
  25. morlock_man's Avatar
    A fifth of 78 million is 15.6 million. To move that many phones in the first month (quarter?) of release, they also need to:

    1) Actually release the product
    2) Manufacture them.
    3) Sell them.

    The stock is where it is because the market doesn't think RIM's going to be successful. Will the price go up in they are? Certainly. But the general consensus is "I'll believe it when I see it".
    Well, to be clear, I never said they'd sell in the first month or quarter for that matter. (Edit: Looking back, it might have been implied when I referred to the release month, but that wasn't what I intended.)

    But if only 1/5 of the total customer base upgrades within the first year, that number is nothing to sneeze at. This doesn't even consider customers who're new to the platform or transition from one of the other top contenders.

    Apple has sold close to 200 million iPhones in 4 years, I don't see why RIM couldn't sell 15 or 16 million in a year.
    07-20-12 07:04 PM
808 ... 2930313233
LINK TO POST COPIED TO CLIPBOARD