12-05-13 08:17 PM
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  1. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    At the time of the acquisition two years ago, QNX revenue was $40m a year. Does anyone have a more updated number?

    Even if it has doubled in the past two years -- and that's probably being generous --, the revenue from automobiles sounds like it's inconsequential to RIM's overall financials.
    QNX sales
    9M in 2011 (64%)
    forecast
    11M in 2012
    and
    a market that is expected to grow 12 per cent annually to reach $14.4 billion U.S. by 2016, according to researcher MarketsandMarkets in a recently released report.

    ... you surely better than me in "creative-maths" lol.
    Last edited by Superfly_FR; 07-16-12 at 03:12 PM.
    07-16-12 02:50 PM
  2. njblackberry's Avatar
    I don't think $6 is impossible - and yes, at $5 it will get very ugly. It will continue to be rumor driven until ship dates and products are firmer.

    Interesting to see what the institutional holdings and changes are when the big funds have to report their latest month end positions. Anyone buying or selling?
    07-16-12 02:53 PM
  3. cgk's Avatar
    I don't think $6 is impossible - and yes, at $5 it will get very ugly. It will continue to be rumor driven until ship dates and products are firmer.

    Interesting to see what the institutional holdings and changes are when the big funds have to report their latest month end positions. Anyone buying or selling?
    Really the stock is only going to move upwards in a significant way if one of two things happens 1) Takeover, 2) BB10 sales for the first full quarter are out of the park.

    Anyone want to do the back of the fagpacket maths - what does the stock price need to go under for the market cap to fall under $3 billion?
    Last edited by cgk; 07-16-12 at 02:58 PM.
    07-16-12 02:56 PM
  4. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    How did you derive $15-20?
    pure speculation ... and as written by bruce, I believe I can be wrong ...
    But I checked this : http://www.harman.com/EN-US/Newscent...009ERSlide.pdf and ... wow.
    Did I read correctly the page 4 ?
    Automotive : approx. $3 Billion revenues in FY 2008
    and 64% of $14.4 Billion is $9,2 Billion (2016 estimation)

    Your help welcome ...
    Last edited by Superfly_FR; 07-16-12 at 03:14 PM.
    07-16-12 03:07 PM
  5. Blackberry_boffin's Avatar
    Really the stock is only going to move upwards in a significant way if one of two things happens 1) Takeover, 2) BB10 sales for the first full quarter are out of the park.

    Anyone want to do the back of the fagpacket maths - what does the stock price need to go under for the market cap to fall under $3 billion?
    If RIM are serious about launching the first BB10 device in Q1 2013 (January it's actually rumoured) then they should be getting ready to launch or at least run limited previews of the BB10 platform.
    They will need to take a long look at the sales of BB7 devices and accept that at a certain point it may be better to give the stock a lift than worry about the Osborne effect.
    Of course that entirely depends on how determined they are to avoid a hostile takeover.
    07-16-12 03:08 PM
  6. app_Developer's Avatar
    pure speculation ... and as written by bruce, I believe I can be wrong ...
    But I checked this : http://www.harman.com/EN-US/Newscent...009ERSlide.pdf and ... wow.
    Did I read correctly the page 4 ?

    and 64% of $14.4 Billion is $9,2 Billion (2016 estimation)

    Your help welcome ...
    Yes, Harman's overall revenue is about $4B a year now, of which approx $2.5 is from these infotainment systems.

    Of course, that's hardware and software. It's not clear how much of that they pay RIM.

    I don't know your point on the 64% of 14.4B. QNX doesn't sell directly to that market, and RIM doesn't make infotainment hardware. QNX sells their OS to companies like Harman. In fact, Harman is the major customer.
    Last edited by app_Developer; 07-16-12 at 03:19 PM.
    07-16-12 03:17 PM
  7. Mikhou's Avatar
    One Image worth Thousand Words....

    07-16-12 03:29 PM
  8. ADozenEggs@aol.com's Avatar
    I don't think $6 is impossible - and yes, at $5 it will get very ugly. It will continue to be rumor driven until ship dates and products are firmer.

    Interesting to see what the institutional holdings and changes are when the big funds have to report their latest month end positions. Anyone buying or selling?
    I believe Oppenheimerfunds(my last employer on Wall Street) hold RIM in it's Main Street Opportunities Fund. One of their Fund Manager expressed some dismay about the company last week.

    You can say want you want about analysts, but if Fund Managers start belly aching in unison, things are only going to get uglier.
    07-16-12 05:39 PM
  9. morlock_man's Avatar
    One Image worth Thousand Words....

    Click to view quoted image
    Uhh... that image says 1476 billion.

    They didn't lose almost 1 and a half trillion dollars.
    07-16-12 05:58 PM
  10. njblackberry's Avatar
    I believe the author was suggesting that RIM has paid/lost over $1.4bn in patent infringement suits during the time.
    07-16-12 06:14 PM
  11. amazinglygraceless's Avatar
    I believe the author was suggesting that RIM has paid/lost over $1.4bn in patent infringement suits during the time.
    Don't think so. The recent judgement won by mFormation is $147.62 million
    so it looks like (A) a decimal misplacement and (B) wrong choice of "illion"
    Superfly_FR likes this.
    07-16-12 07:29 PM
  12. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    One Image worth Thousand Words....

    Click to view quoted image
    indeed ... lol
    Berryuman likes this.
    07-16-12 07:52 PM
  13. cgk's Avatar
    I must be honest, I thought that the stock was going to bottom out at about $7 and stay there until we saw one way or the other if BB10 was a success - however, it's already 20 cents below that.

    Predictions for where the stock will be on 1st august?
    07-17-12 11:22 AM
  14. vlade31's Avatar

    Predictions for where the stock will be on 1st august?
    6 even

    10 char
    07-17-12 11:26 AM
  15. ADozenEggs@aol.com's Avatar
    6 even

    10 char
    $5.65 - $5.90 range.
    07-17-12 11:28 AM
  16. drjay868's Avatar
    I must be honest, I thought that the stock was going to bottom out at about $7 and stay there until we saw one way or the other if BB10 was a success - however, it's already 20 cents below that.

    Predictions for where the stock will be on 1st august?
    I've got no clue, but when I think about it, I feel
    07-17-12 11:31 AM
  17. drjay868's Avatar
    As in:

    Awwww, looks what's happening to my favorite phone maker...
    What the heck can be causing this?
    Oh, yeah, damn RIM for being so slow to step it up
    OH MY GOD, ITS STILL GETTING LOWER... WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!!!
    Nah, just play it cool... QNX is going to make everything better...
    Just think how much money you're going to make when the stock rebounds and you've bough a few shares at $5...
    Shlooky likes this.
    07-17-12 11:36 AM
  18. Shlooky's Avatar
    I say it will drop to around $5 or below, by the second qtr results call. If however they announce another delay, that stock will hit $2 or $3 easily, and RIM will ripe for the taking.
    07-17-12 11:43 AM
  19. kbz1960's Avatar
    I thought it was said they were ripe for the taking at $10, didn't happen.
    hpjrt and louzer like this.
    07-17-12 11:48 AM
  20. Shlooky's Avatar
    why buy it at $10 if you can buy the company at $5 or less
    07-17-12 11:52 AM
  21. morlock_man's Avatar
    Well, in two days they're releasing the update for the dev beta with new features.

    PB 2.1 should also be along shortly.

    Since wifi bridge is such a key technology that isn't being built into the other OS's, they'll likely use that as a starting point to kick off their new marketing campaign.

    Considering Canada's current limit on foreign investment in Canadian companies, a foreign takeover isn't possible until the stock drops to less than 20 percent of its current value due to the Canada Investments Act.

    Unless Harper continues his plan to raise the limit. Dirty, dirty corporate stooge.
    Last edited by morlock_man; 07-17-12 at 12:14 PM. Reason: added bold for emphasis
    07-17-12 11:56 AM
  22. cgk's Avatar
    Dev beta is not going to impact stockprice and nothing to do with the PB is likely to either - regardless of personal preference to the market that is a failed product.


    Why is WiFi bridge going to lift the stock price ?


    Sent from my Lumia 800 using Board Express
    07-17-12 11:59 AM
  23. Mister-E's Avatar
    I say it will drop to around $5 or below, by the second qtr results call. If however they announce another delay, that stock will hit $2 or $3 easily, and RIM will ripe for the taking.
    At todays price it is already ripe for the picking. A buyer could sell RIMs tangible assets, pay off the liabilities, and walk away with the patents and some cash. Of course, if there was a buyer, the stock would shoot up.
    07-17-12 12:06 PM
  24. morlock_man's Avatar
    Dev beta is not going to impact stockprice and nothing to do with the PB is likely to either - regardless of personal preference to the market that is a failed product.

    Why is WiFi bridge going to lift the stock price ?
    I suspect they've halted major marketing on the Playbook to wait for 2.1 to be complete. Of which wifi bridge is a major component. Its also a major component of BB10.

    The dev beta release provides a portion of the grassroots support they've been talking about. Opening up new features on the platform for developer use means new functionality for the device itself. It will help demonstrate more of the capabilities of the platform. Most likely features that can't easily be stolen by competing platforms.

    For example, while the virtual keyboard and time-reversing photo software have seen implementation on other platforms, no one has managed to copy the Flow paradigm.

    Why?

    Because its not something that can just be coded into competing platforms on a whim.

    All they have to do is drop a few more of these core features (bridge texting and wifi bridge) into the dev alpha and the online buzz generated alone by developers should show that RIM is raising the bar. If they update the APIs to show how BB10 devices and the Playbook can interoperate, turning both devices into one logical system with wifi bridge acting as a data bus, they'll be demonstrating just how far beyond they competition they've gone.

    This would be one of the additional purposes of the BB10 Jam sessions. Seeding as many of these devices as possible to ensure that a large population base of technologically inclined people will have easy access to the new features from Day One.
    07-17-12 12:13 PM
  25. Mikhou's Avatar
    Predictions for where the stock will be on 1st august?
    Science told : $5.75

    07-17-12 12:17 PM
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