12-20-13 01:54 PM
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  1. app_Developer's Avatar
    OP I think that analysis belongs to the group Homo Erectus (as your name states) since no Homo Sapien could have written that....
    A google search shows that everywhere else this story was cited today, the figure is $800M except in this one thread on this one site, where it oddly became $2.4B.

    I'm guessing copy and paste were not among the skills that early hominin had mastered?
    JeepBB likes this.
    12-16-13 10:03 PM
  2. M65c02's Avatar
    I'm sure many people here see me as a BB hater (I'm not, just a realist), but there's no way BB burned through $2.4B this last quarter. $800M is very believable given that they've had to pay to lay off a bunch of people, and had plenty of other costs, but $2.4B is no where close to being in the realm of possibility without some Madoff-level of embezzling or something.

    I think the OP, or the author he is quoting, is confused/misunderstood something.
    There is objective reality and trash. This OP's post, and Bernstein analyst comment, is pure trash. And any researcher posting such is simply trying to manipulate the BB/BBRY share price (down) PRIOR to release of Qtrlys.

    Obviously look for another loss and a continued burn through more cash including another qtrr of no free cash generation. There may even be an increased use of cash but used on non-continued operations (inc. employee layoffs). And, it could (will bee) argued at some point in the future that Chen is being penny wise and pound foolish with the cash but I suppose he wants to slow the leaks so that his team can grasp the reality(s) of the BB situation.

    A $2B bleed of cash in a year, however, and never mind a quarter as OP quotes, would be impossible (well almost impossible) for our Blackberry. NOTWITHSTANDING if there was (or will be reported) anything near even a billion in cash burn, BBRY would collapse to under $4 in a heartbeat. Still, anyone silly enough to have purchased anything with the BB name associated other than perhaps a phone (and convertible debt), remember we are adding another $75+mm/annum just in financing while locked into another $250-300mm liquidation fee for the junk bond issued as Chen's (sorry I mean Prem and MacKenzie's) first major act. As things stand today, there's little now and nothing for the shareholders two years from now unless BB can find a product to sell for a profit.

    These analysts are so very late in their prognosis and most follow each other like sheep. At the risk of lending any support to the crazy Bernstein, et al. forecast, any backwoods accountant couldn't mistake any later than this past June. As preached since May and June, BBRY has little value for shareholders until it can show it has a product to sell and can again generate free cash. When you see a BB on the street or, possibly, BBM(X) becomes the talked about comm utility that everyone has to have, then it will be time to re-invest in BB shares. .... Yet, the Canucks might rather socialize this Canadian icon rather than give it to the Chinese ... just messy from whatever viewpoint.

    [Note: Interesting comment by Troy relative to some hidden accounting cover-up/embezzlement: That would be interesting but I can assure you that the Mackenzie boys would have found, and not gone near the debt issue, had there been any even vague sign of anything other than ordinary mis/poor-management.]
    Last edited by M65c02; 12-17-13 at 06:27 AM.
    12-17-13 05:54 AM
  3. David Murray1's Avatar
    Yep. Giving the old boys in suits their enormous golden handshakes really adds up. Still, at least they are getting rid of 40% of the little people too ... That's bound to save some cash!
    milo53 likes this.
    12-17-13 06:04 AM
  4. m1kr0's Avatar
    No, absolutely unrealistic numbers in the OP. It is expected that some loss will be announced on the 20th but not that almost the entire reserve was blown in a single quarter.

    Posted via the Android CrackBerry App!
    12-17-13 06:06 AM
  5. M65c02's Avatar
    Yep. Giving the old boys in suits their enormous golden handshakes really adds up. Still, at least they are getting rid of 40% of the little people too ... That's bound to save some cash!
    No, absolutely unrealistic numbers in the OP. It is expected that some loss will be announced on the 20th but not that almost the entire reserve was blown in a single quarter.
    Right on both accounts. There should be an extra heavy non-recurring charge/expense to BB income for the layoffs. But from these layoffs presumably there will continue a draw on the cash position of BB over the next year as employees are paid severance for salary and some benefits. Ignoring the long-term merit of this slice and dice of employees, however, you are correct in that Chen has batten down the hatches and in an immediate effort to conserve cash and make for a more appealing posting of a BB qtrly loss.
    12-17-13 06:37 AM
  6. sleepngbear's Avatar
    Or 1.2 billion dollar write off for Q10 and Z30 inventory.

    Maybe?

    Verizon Z10 10.2.1.1055
    A write-down is not considered cash burn. They would have actually had to have spent $2.4b on something or several somethings ... with no other cash coming in.
    M65c02 likes this.
    12-17-13 08:44 AM
  7. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    Or 1.2 billion dollar write off for Q10 and Z30 inventory.
    Maybe?
    Verizon Z10 10.2.1.1055
    A write-down is not considered cash burn. They would have actually had to have spent $2.4b on something or several somethings ... with no other cash coming in.
    Strike Z30 out of any counting, anyhow.
    12-17-13 08:47 AM
  8. byex's Avatar
    No need to worry, it was the petty cash account.
    12-17-13 09:10 AM
  9. BB10user07's Avatar
    This is the most ridiculous article I have ever seen...and trust me there is no shortage of crappie articles on BlackBerry.

    Posted via CB10
    12-17-13 09:10 AM
  10. Ecm's Avatar
    Thread title tweaked, as no solid source is quoted.

    Continue the discussion...
    Superfly_FR likes this.
    12-17-13 09:28 AM
  11. M65c02's Avatar
    Thread title tweaked, as no solid source is quoted.

    Continue the discussion...
    Yes, our thanks to Homo Erectus and the nature of thread evolution for having produced an editing of the thread title.
    12-17-13 09:52 AM
  12. jic999's Avatar
    Any spec of positive news that could drive BlackBerry to the convert strike price of $10. Will cause the conversion at $10 and the Short interest will have to make up the supply gap of shares and hence a squeeze !

    Posted via CB10
    12-17-13 09:59 AM
  13. Tariq Nasir's Avatar
    The only way this is true is if they paid Beyonce a secret amount of 2.3 billion to be their secret Global Marketing Director.. to go along with her secret album.

    Posted via CB10
    meltbox360 and alternator77 like this.
    12-17-13 10:05 AM
  14. JeepBB's Avatar
    Erm... I think OP might be yanking your collective chains.

    Looks to me like he's edited the BGR text in a couple of places and posted the bait.

    Ironically, he might have done BB a favour.... When BB reports cash down 800M on Friday... Several will quote this spoof post as evidence that it could have been worse!

    JBB
    M65c02 likes this.
    12-17-13 10:29 AM
  15. George Jenkinson's Avatar
    How could they possibly burn 2.4 billion... i mean really...

    Z10STL100-3/10.2.0.1803
    If you give me $2.4bn, I'll do my best to show you?!
    JeepBB likes this.
    12-17-13 10:33 AM
  16. DurdenLunarius's Avatar
    Not only did the Gov't of Canada block any sales bids from Lenovo for national security reasons, but Chen openly said that they are not leaving the hardware business.

    They just finalized and received the $1 bil deal last month. Even if they did burn through $800 mil in the last quarter, it would be of pre-existing cash on hand, not the injection they received. I can see how people might correlate the two, but they shouldn't as it's old money being burned, not new. I agree $800 mil is unlikely, but $2.4 bil is improbable with the reductions they've been making.
    George Jenkinson likes this.
    12-17-13 12:36 PM
  17. anon(5818411)'s Avatar
    Can't believe people actually believe it this crap. It's probably already all over the U.S. News with made up numbers.

    I never really got the point of an analyst besides manipulating the stocks.

    Posted via CB10
    12-17-13 12:45 PM
  18. Blacklatino's Avatar
    They spent it all on marketing. Hehehe

    Z10 10.2.1.1055
    LOL. That would have been my first question.....WTH did they spend it on?
    12-17-13 02:34 PM
  19. Troy Tiscareno's Avatar
    Not only did the Gov't of Canada block any sales bids from Lenovo for national security reasons, but Chen openly said that they are not leaving the hardware business.
    ORLY?

    I'd be very interested to read this quote where he "openly said that they are not leaving the hardware business." That's a pretty specific thing to say that I've not seen reported anywhere.
    JeepBB likes this.
    12-17-13 02:55 PM
  20. Dave Bourque's Avatar
    ORLY?

    I'd be very interested to read this quote where he "openly said that they are not leaving the hardware business." That's a pretty specific thing to say that I've not seen reported anywhere.
    He hasn't said the opposite either...

    Z10STL100-3/10.2.0.1803
    12-17-13 04:19 PM
  21. app_Developer's Avatar
    Can't believe people actually believe it this crap. It's probably already all over the U.S. News with made up numbers.

    I never really got the point of an analyst besides manipulating the stocks.
    Again, the analyst never said $2.4B. There was apparently a big copy/paste fail in this thread.


    Sent from my iPhone 5S using Tapatalk
    M65c02 likes this.
    12-17-13 04:26 PM
  22. M65c02's Avatar
    A ny spec landslide of positive news that could drive BlackBerry to the convert strike price of $10. This will cause the conversion at $10 and the Short interest will have to make up the supply gap of shares and hence a squeeze!
    I took the liberty of editing; now your statement makes a spec more sense. Realize that BBRY is now (or soon will be) saddled with a nearly $4/share Iinc. admin) commitment to debt holders. 40-50mm bona fide unit sales a year and/or somehow showing revenue from various licensing might convince the market to reprice BBRY to $10/share ....But BB is closer to 4-5mm BB10 units and likely paying more for their debt load than they make from their product(s).

    The shorts are in it to the end.
    ORLY?

    I'd be very interested to read this quote where he "openly said that they are not leaving the hardware business." That's a pretty specific thing to say that I've not seen reported anywhere.
    This would be an interesting read. But I wouldn't put too much credence into the veracity of (or try to overly analyze) Chen at this moment. Unless/unitl some definitive plan is made, Chen is not going to box himself by even hinting to any drastic change until ... well, let's just say that his legacy begins with Friday's earnings call.
    Last edited by M65c02; 12-18-13 at 10:23 AM.
    JeepBB likes this.
    12-17-13 05:22 PM
  23. Lobwedgephil's Avatar
    Thread title tweaked, as no solid source is quoted.

    Continue the discussion...
    Looks like he was using this bgr article. Though it says 800 million loss.

    BlackBerry projected loss: $800 million in just one quarter | BGR
    12-17-13 06:45 PM
  24. DurdenLunarius's Avatar
    Orly? What is orly? I saw "only" in my post... Anyway, read the Dec 2nd article where he sends the open letter to enterprise customers. Chen says one of the 4 areas they're focusing on is handsets. That can be inferred that they are not leaving hardware, especially since they slimmed down to 2 handset vendors instead of announcing they're dropping them completely now.

    We'll see on 12/20 what his upcoming and future plans are, but I take that as not leaving hardware yet, just re-focusing the company perspective to meet customer demands instead of expecting customers to know what the company means.

    Posted via CB10
    12-17-13 07:38 PM
  25. alternator77's Avatar
    Me thinks the original author of the article needs to be reacquainted with our friend the decimal point.

    Posted via CB10
    12-17-13 09:49 PM
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