12-20-13 01:54 PM
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  1. Homo Erectus's Avatar
    Just about everyone expects BlackBerrys next earnings report to be a complete horror show, as the companys fruitless effort to take itself private scared away potential customers and drove its share price to lows not seen in more than a decade. StreetInsider points us to a new research note from Bernstein analyst Pierre Ferragu, who projects that BlackBerry burned through $2.4 billion of its cash pile over the last quarter alone. Or put another way, Ferragu projects that it took BlackBerry only three months to burn through 80% of the $1 billion cash injection it received from Fairfax Financial.
    That said, theres a silver lining here for BlackBerry: Ferragu thinks that things should get better for the company because, as Lennon and McCartney once sang, they can get muh worse.

    Our detailed analysis shows that the company has assets worth $6 billion to $13 billion, writes Ferragu. In this context, current price reflects a conservative SOTP valuation, with limited room for further decline in the stock price also including liquidation costs.

    If BlackBerrys assets are at worst worth $6 billion then its current market cap of around $1.2 billion looks much too low, which explains why Ferragu doesnt think the companys share prices can possibly fall much further. All the same, he slaps the companys shares with a price target of just $2.50, which is still around $0.75 lower than their current price. Ferragu also says its way to early to make any speculative bets on the companys prospects for a turnaround since we still dont really know what its plans are going forward.
    12-16-13 06:35 PM
  2. SEAWARRIOR's Avatar
    another source, via Chris Umiastowskis' article, Some thoughts on more executive departures | CrackBerry.com , say $800M,,, $2.4B sounds pretty ridiculous,,, that means they would've burned thru almost, if not ALL of their cash...
    12-16-13 06:43 PM
  3. irweezyy's Avatar
    If this was the case I'm pretty sure prem would not have given another 1 billion$ for them to only burn through in half a quarter... pretty sure that this is wrong but hey, we will find out for sure very shortly

    Posted via CB10
    12-16-13 06:48 PM
  4. LazyEvul's Avatar
    another source, via Chris Umiastowskis' article, Some thoughts on more executive departures | CrackBerry.com , say $800M,,, $2.4B sounds pretty ridiculous,,, that means they would've burned thru almost, if not ALL of their cash...
    Chris thinks that even the $800 million figure is a little high. $2.4 billion? I'm not buying it. The damage has been bad, but burning through that much cash would cause some serious panic down in Waterloo.
    SEAWARRIOR and Superfly_FR like this.
    12-16-13 06:52 PM
  5. bigbadben10's Avatar
    Yet another laughable article. They really should just close the doors right now so we can all go and buy iPhones!

    Posted with my gorgeous Z30
    Superfly_FR likes this.
    12-16-13 06:56 PM
  6. the_sleuth's Avatar
    Ferragu's analysis is FUD. Last quarter, BB had $2.1 billion in cash with $1 billion injection from investors then $3.1 Billion. Now subtract between $500 mil or $800 mil cash burn would put the cash pile at $2.3 to $2.6 billion. Plenty of cash to run a software company as this is the path where Chen will take BB. I wouldn't be surprised if hardware division is sold and the related patents licensed like Nokia did with Microsoft. Lenovo might still want the hardware division with patent licensing.
    milo53 likes this.
    12-16-13 06:57 PM
  7. FSeverino's Avatar
    If this was the case I'm pretty sure prem would not have given another 1 billion$ for them to only burn through in half a quarter... pretty sure that this is wrong but hey, we will find out for sure very shortly

    Posted via CB10
    For real.

    Who would $1b to a company that burns 2.4 in 3 months? That's basically giving them an extra 5 weeks... there is ZERO upside to that investment


    Posted via CB10
    irweezyy likes this.
    12-16-13 07:24 PM
  8. FSeverino's Avatar
    Ferragu's analysis is FUD. Last quarter, BB had $2.1 billion in cash with $1 billion injection from investors then $3.1 Billion. Now subtract between $500 mil or $800 mil cash burn would put the cash pile at $2.3 to $2.6 billion. Plenty of cash to run a software company as this is the path where Chen will take BB. I wouldn't be surprised if hardware division is sold and the related patents licensed like Nokia did with Microsoft. Lenovo might still want the hardware division with patent licensing.
    I think if Lenovo buys the hardware with bb10 that would work. Basically Lenovo knows how to make and push hardware... BlackBerry doesnt

    Posted via CB10
    12-16-13 07:26 PM
  9. app_Developer's Avatar
    Where is the OP quoting from?? The original report says $800M.


    Sent from my iPhone 5S using Tapatalk
    thisiscjay, felixweber and R Field like this.
    12-16-13 07:29 PM
  10. Dave Bourque's Avatar
    How could they possibly burn 2.4 billion... i mean really...

    Z10STL100-3/10.2.0.1803
    fedakd and jojo beaconsfield like this.
    12-16-13 07:30 PM
  11. cbvinh's Avatar
    When IBM was in trouble, they were burning $1 billion/month. Granted, they were a much bigger company at the time.

    The question is whether BlackBerry still had hardware manufacturing commitments last quarter. If so, there might be a sizable write-down once again. If they already wrote down all they needed, then it should be a nice surprise.
    12-16-13 07:35 PM
  12. cjcampbell's Avatar
    Where is the OP quoting from?? The original report says $800M.


    Sent from my iPhone 5S using Tapatalk
    I was wondering the same thing.
    12-16-13 07:38 PM
  13. tlegend2012's Avatar
    2.4bn? I think this is a typo
    12-16-13 07:39 PM
  14. SparkyBC's Avatar
    Just about everyone expects BlackBerrys next earnings report to be a complete horror show, as the companys fruitless effort to take itself private scared away potential customers and drove its share price to lows not seen in more than a decade. StreetInsider points us to a new research note from Bernstein analyst Pierre Ferragu, who projects that BlackBerry burned through $2.4 billion of its cash pile over the last quarter alone. Or put another way, Ferragu projects that it took BlackBerry only three months to burn through 80% of the $1 billion cash injection it received from Fairfax Financial.
    That said, theres a silver lining here for BlackBerry: Ferragu thinks that things should get better for the company because, as Lennon and McCartney once sang, they can get muh worse.

    Our detailed analysis shows that the company has assets worth $6 billion to $13 billion, writes Ferragu. In this context, current price reflects a conservative SOTP valuation, with limited room for further decline in the stock price also including liquidation costs.

    If BlackBerrys assets are at worst worth $6 billion then its current market cap of around $1.2 billion looks much too low, which explains why Ferragu doesnt think the companys share prices can possibly fall much further. All the same, he slaps the companys shares with a price target of just $2.50, which is still around $0.75 lower than their current price. Ferragu also says its way to early to make any speculative bets on the companys prospects for a turnaround since we still dont really know what its plans are going forward.
    Quit posting these dumb threads. 2.4 billion is total bs. Wait to hear from the numbers from the horses mouth.

    Technically if under a billion they lost nothing. They get a billion back from tax credits from the govt of Canada.

    Start the doom and gloom now essentially they lost nothing this quarter...
    ital1, badiyee and R Field like this.
    12-16-13 07:42 PM
  15. JWWDUKE's Avatar
    How could they possibly burn 2.4 billion... i mean really...

    Z10STL100-3/10.2.0.1803
    They spent it all on marketing. Hehehe

    Z10 10.2.1.1055
    meltbox360 likes this.
    12-16-13 08:06 PM
  16. Troy Tiscareno's Avatar
    I'm sure many people here see me as a BB hater (I'm not, just a realist), but there's no way BB burned through $2.4B this last quarter. $800M is very believable given that they've had to pay to lay off a bunch of people, and had plenty of other costs, but $2.4B is no where close to being in the realm of possibility without some Madoff-level of embezzling or something.

    I think the OP, or the author he is quoting, is confused/misunderstood something.
    12-16-13 08:20 PM
  17. CairnsRock's Avatar
    I think if Lenovo buys the hardware with bb10 that would work. Basically Lenovo knows how to make and push hardware... BlackBerry doesnt

    Posted via CB10
    The Government of Canada has already refused to approve any sale to Lenova.
    12-16-13 08:25 PM
  18. BCITMike's Avatar
    The warehouse containing their cash must have burned down. /sarcasm

    Posted via CB10
    12-16-13 08:25 PM
  19. m1a1mg's Avatar
    Not sure where the OP got the info. Here is the initial article:

    UPDATE: Bernstein Upgrades BlackBerry (BBRY) to Market Perform; Assets Worth $6-$13B
    app_Developer likes this.
    12-16-13 08:37 PM
  20. jojo beaconsfield's Avatar
    you got it wrong,they made 200 billion,last quarter.Someone told me.Ha Ha !!
    12-16-13 08:44 PM
  21. jic999's Avatar
    Canso one of the best Bond managers in the country and who owns the biggest portion of the Convert would not blow 300M on a cash burn company !! Any news on the Venuzuela $250M outstanding ?? well $2.6B + $1B tax credit + $1B tax pool from the Z10 + $1B convert adds up to a lot of cash !!
    12-16-13 09:16 PM
  22. tatail's Avatar
    lol 2.4 billion.. someone has to go to preschool to learn some math..

    they only way they could have done this was to buy a few planes and then burn them.. or actually just burn the cash.
    12-16-13 09:16 PM
  23. collinc93's Avatar
    OP I think that analysis belongs to the group Homo Erectus (as your name states) since no Homo Sapien could have written that....
    12-16-13 09:27 PM
  24. trsbbs's Avatar
    lol 2.4 billion.. someone has to go to preschool to learn some math..

    they only way they could have done this was to buy a few planes and then burn them.. or actually just burn the cash.
    Or 1.2 billion dollar write off for Q10 and Z30 inventory.

    Maybe?

    Verizon Z10 10.2.1.1055
    JeepBB likes this.
    12-16-13 09:49 PM
  25. LazyEvul's Avatar
    Or 1.2 billion dollar write off for Q10 and Z30 inventory.

    Maybe?

    Verizon Z10 10.2.1.1055
    A write down is different from burning through cash, the former does not affect the cash balance of a company.
    12-16-13 10:00 PM
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