06-03-12 10:58 PM
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  1. bitek's Avatar
    Thorsten Heins is like the famous desert fox.
    05-31-12 06:18 PM
  2. bitek's Avatar
    The article does not mention the fact that handset only makers are not thriving. As much as RIM produces (produced?) a good product, only price and true innovation will drive this sector.

    And if price is the deciding factor, then RIM will become another Dell...living on tiny margins on a commodity product.

    RIM is obviously building toward an exit scenario with BB10 being used as bait. Just as WebOS lured HP.

    However, what can a new owner do that RIM couldn't? RIM has the cash. They have the brand. But nothing saved the typewriter, CB, PDA or other placeholder tech industries.

    Sometimes one just has to step back and actually look at the big picture. And I don't see "phones" being in their current form in the next three years.
    exit scenario to do what exactly ?
    05-31-12 06:19 PM
  3. pythons's Avatar
    How so?

    RIM has survived 2 years with a less attractive product portfolio than their competition, they've faced their first Operating loss, whilst securing liquid capital,

    Though they are being devalued on the stock market, that doesn't negate their ability to operate as a niche player, if RIM continues to be beat up by the markets they very well could go private if the CASE program works as they hope it will, and if the growth in Alternate markets besides North America continues, it will be slow, but they can still survive.
    I'm counting on what you just said there deRusett!
    ...In fact I'm "betting" on it.
    ...RIM can absolutely climb out of this hole.
    Last edited by pythons; 06-03-12 at 11:38 PM.
    05-31-12 06:32 PM
  4. jd914's Avatar
    sorry but a company with an expanding user base doesn't have over $1 billion in products sitting on shelves unsold.
    Good point. Can someone please explain this?
    05-31-12 06:37 PM
  5. zar1964's Avatar
    Our love for RIM and Blackberry will make them even stronger!!

    The RIMpire will defeat the darkside
    05-31-12 06:47 PM
  6. dusdal's Avatar
    Good point. Can someone please explain this?
    Sure.

    Research in motion has a growing user base. Research in Motion has also had to write down some unsold inventory.

    Clear?
    05-31-12 07:01 PM
  7. torndownunit's Avatar
    sorry but a company with an expanding user base doesn't have over $1 billion in products sitting on shelves unsold.
    Someone asked about this, but I'd also be curious to know more about this. I wish no ill will towards RIM whatsoever, but it's tough to find a balanced perspective on this forum at times. It tends ranges from 'RIM can do no wrong', to 'RIM sucks' with no perspective from the middle. Some points like the one quoted seem to just get glanced over.
    05-31-12 07:10 PM
  8. BB10Apps's Avatar
    Someone asked about this, but I'd also be curious to know more about this. I wish no ill will towards RIM whatsoever, but it's tough to find a balanced perspective on this forum at times. It tends ranges from 'RIM can do no wrong', to 'RIM sucks' with no perspective from the middle. Some points like the one quoted seem to just get glanced over.
    I'll try giving you a balanced perspective. That to me makes sense.....They are growing but not as fast as the overall market. The over stock they have and what has been said about them adding 2 million more users in the past quarter kinda reflects that. I think that the media also has a role in them not growing as fast. You constantly hear about the struggles they are having blah blah blah but an important thing that they also always mention is that NEW PHONES WILL BE COMING OUT. So my guess is that some people are holding out to see what RIM brings to the table before upgrading their phones. To me it seems like the average person is not a crazy hard fan of one phone company. Like our fearless leader Kevin always says the smartphone is going to become the common cell phone so I do think they have a chance at grabbing lots of new people. Hopefully they price the phones right!!The only thing that makes me feel like they are running out of time is how long it does take them to actually bring it to market. I know they have 2 billion in cash but how long can that last?? and is there a company that will offer a buy out that is just too sweet to pass up?? I do hope hey make it though having only apple and android is kinda boring!!!!I know I'm bored of iOS
    05-31-12 08:09 PM
  9. BBOttawa's Avatar
    Having lots of inventory just means the current phones aren't selling as fast as they would like, so they will make lesser profits/bigger losses in the next quarter or two as the inventory will have to be sold before they can make/sell more. They still have the money to weather that until BB10 comes out, no problem, $2 billion is 4 quarters of $500 million losses, and RIM will NOT be that bad.

    My best guess (total guess) is they lose $200 million this quarter, $400 million next, then start earning a profit the next one if BB10 gets traction in the market. Still a lot of cash cushion to play with.
    05-31-12 08:48 PM
  10. OMGitworks's Avatar
    RIM'S user base is growing in the cheap low margin developing countries. BBM and sub $5 month plans. There is opportunity there, but it is not with the expensive BB10 type handsets using large amounts of data. So RIM is getting more users, but losing the higher profit sales. Those expensive handsets are not selling well and are clogging up inventory. More expensive OS7 phones made for North America are likely killing RIMM right now. Would you rather be Walmart and sell 100 handbags to make $200 or be Coach and sell 1 handbag and make $225? RIM use to sell expensive handsets to large corporations by the 100's but now needs to figure out a more consumer/mass market strategy to sell many more units but at a much lower price and profit margin. Honestly I think it is whether or not they can figure this out, more than BB10 which will seal RIMM's fate one way or the other. In fact, they probably need to execute well on both fronts if they want to remain a stand alone company.

    I am not disrespecting or picking on any one country, but here is a link to RIMM's strategy in India and how they are growing users in a growing market but with a much less profitable device.

    http://www.pcworld.com/article/25400...g_markets.html
    Last edited by OMGitworks; 05-31-12 at 09:41 PM. Reason: added link
    notfanboy likes this.
    05-31-12 09:23 PM
  11. tchocky77's Avatar
    I wonder if BB10 will even be available in India, Malaysia and those places where RIM continues to add subscribers. Will it be a global release?
    Last edited by tchocky77; 05-31-12 at 11:36 PM.
    05-31-12 10:16 PM
  12. sleepngbear's Avatar
    "...a company with an expanding user base doesn't have over $1 billion in products sitting on shelves unsold."

    Good point. Can someone please explain this?
    Theoretically, RIM could sell just one phone and expand its user base, as long as they don't lose any other subscribers. The upshot is, even though RIM sold fewer devices than they planned on, they still sold more BB's to new customers than old customers they lost. Get it? Or is that not negative enough for you to comprehend?

    Now can someone explain to me why you people have to jump in and crap on even the positive news threads? It doesn't matter how they're doing it at this point in the rebuilding. All that matters is, an expanding user base is better than a shrinking one, regardless of who those new users are.
    Last edited by sleepngbear; 06-01-12 at 12:14 AM.
    hpjrt likes this.
    06-01-12 12:10 AM
  13. kevinnugent's Avatar
    As long as Blackberry still has its die hard fans it will survive any tides.
    Never heard of Commodore? Their fans made Crackberry heads look like little school girls. Didn't help much.... although I think they are still alive. Somewhere.
    06-01-12 12:10 AM
  14. kevinnugent's Avatar
    RIM'S user base is growing in the cheap low margin developing countries. BBM and sub $5 month plans. There is opportunity there, but it is not with the expensive BB10 type handsets using large amounts of data. So RIM is getting more users, but losing the higher profit sales. Those expensive handsets are not selling well and are clogging up inventory. More expensive OS7 phones made for North America are likely killing RIMM right now. Would you rather be Walmart and sell 100 handbags to make $200 or be Coach and sell 1 handbag and make $225? RIM use to sell expensive handsets to large corporations by the 100's but now needs to figure out a more consumer/mass market strategy to sell many more units but at a much lower price and profit margin. Honestly I think it is whether or not they can figure this out, more than BB10 which will seal RIMM's fate one way or the other. In fact, they probably need to execute well on both fronts if they want to remain a stand alone company.

    I am not disrespecting or picking on any one country, but here is a link to RIMM's strategy in India and how they are growing users in a growing market but with a much less profitable device.

    RIM Launches in India Low-cost Phone for Emerging Markets | PCWorld
    This! Thank god, someone realises. RIM are growing in the cheap seats..... not where the profit margins of old are.
    06-01-12 12:16 AM
  15. tchocky77's Avatar
    Never heard of Commodore? Their fans made Crackberry heads look like little school girls. Didn't help much.... although I think they are still alive. Somewhere.
    Proud to say I cut my teeth on an original 64 and then a 128!
    06-01-12 01:27 AM
  16. OMGitworks's Avatar
    ...snip... All that matters is, an expanding user base is better than a shrinking one, regardless of who those new users are.
    This part of your post is absolutely not true. I am not trying to be negative, just accurate. As I posted above, RIMM is losing high profit sales to low profit ones. It DOES, very much, depend on who the users are. Hopefully they can grow in both segments, but it will be very hard for RIMM to survive on low end commodity type devices without a massive, exponential growth in that segment.
    06-01-12 08:06 AM
  17. sleepngbear's Avatar
    This part of your post is absolutely not true. I am not trying to be negative, just accurate. As I posted above, RIMM is losing high profit sales to low profit ones. It DOES, very much, depend on who the users are. Hopefully they can grow in both segments, but it will be very hard for RIMM to survive on low end commodity type devices without a massive, exponential growth in that segment.
    I agree that attracting and keeping high-end consumers are definitely important for the long run, but I disagree that they are as important right now, so close to the launch of BB10. Of course I would prefer that they were growing both the high and low end now, but it's not the end of the world if they are not. Different story after the BB10 launch, though, without question. If BB10 doesn't make some big noise among high-end devices, then yes, we've got real problems.
    06-02-12 12:04 AM
  18. Geeoff's Avatar
    The billion dollar inventory may not be a huge problem depending on the sales of the company.

    Let's say that 78 million users buy a phone once every three years. That means, on average, RIM sells 2.2 million phones each month.

    Let's assume that, on average, each device is worth 300 dollars as inventory.

    2.2 million device purchases multiplied by 300 dollars is 660 million dollars. Divide this by 1 billion dollars and we see that their inventory is about 1 1/2 months. That's not too bad!

    However, before people jump all over me, the assumptions are key.

    So let's look at a negative scenario. Assume 1 million devices sold each month (fewer new subscribers and less people renewing). As well, let's assume that each phone costs RIM 200 dollars on average. Working these numbers through means five months of inventory. This is not good, but not a complete disaster either.

    Overall I think RIM needs to write down some inventory. But probably part of their thinking is that writing down inventory now will get bad news out of the way and make it easier to book profits later.

    The billion dollar figure sounds big, but it is all relative to size.

    Blackberry Cool.
    Last edited by Geeoff; 06-03-12 at 07:48 AM.
    06-03-12 07:45 AM
  19. Pearl9100's Avatar
    Rim's portfolio is pretty diverse, which makes me pretty confident that Rim will be okay. As for blackberry....I don't know.
    06-03-12 10:58 PM
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