1. rollingrock1988's Avatar
    On Friday, shares in Blackberry manufacturer Research in Motion (RIMM) crashed 11% in response to results, despite the fact that the company continues to grow strongly. The earnings per share in the year that ended in February was $6.34, compared with $4.37 the year before - growth of 45% - and the share trades today at a P/E ratio of 9. The collapse came because guidance for the quarter ending in May was considerably below forecasts. But the real reason is the markets view that apparently, like Nokia (NOK) before it, RIM is about to enter the trauma room due to the nearly impossible competition with the successful Apple, and it is not clear when and how RIM will get out.

    The company has lost so much of investors confidence that for the first time I see the phenomenon that all the analysts, including those who have a Buy rating on the stock, are chuckling at the guidance that the company issued with its results for profit of $7.50 per share this year.

    If the company meets that guidance, it means that the share is trading today at an earnings multiple of around 7 for a smartphone company. To me, it seems much too simplistic on the part of those analysts who erred so greatly with their positive recommendations on Nokia in its first two years of competition against Apple. Now, in my opinion, they are making a mistake again by moving the troubles at Nokia and the mistakes of its previous management directly to RIM.

    Blackberry devices, which until the arrival of the iPhones were the default option for businesspeople in North America and Europe, today are actually a favorite in emerging markets - 52% of sales in the most recent quarter, compared with 36% in the corresponding quarter. It turns out that among other things, the unique message platform on the Blackberry, in addition to its physical keypad, made it into a hit in many emerging markets, primarily South America, where subscribers go crazy with intensive SMS communication, in lieu of expensive voice conversations.

    Analysts view the turnabout in the geographic diversification of sales of RIM toward Asia and South America as a negative, because the gross profit on the cheap devices sold in those countries is low. But growth in those countries is considerably higher than developed countries, and so the quality of life is expected to improve considerably. That is, the world's baby boomers are coming from China, India, and Brazil. So I actually think that RIM will benefit from selling more expensive smartphones to those "captive" customers in those same countries in the coming years, which will lead to a significant improvement in its future results.

    I am taking advantage of the cash in my portfolio tracked at "Globes" and adding RIM, at a time when negative sentiment about it is breaking records. In my opinion the company will turn around ahead of the release of its first tablet computer-- the PlayBook-- next month, and when its new smartphones arrive in the summer.



    Research In Motion: Why I Disagree With the Analysts - Seeking Alpha
    03-31-11 11:28 AM
  2. lnichols's Avatar
    I'm amazed that that Seeking Alpha site posted something that wasn't trashing RIM
    03-31-11 11:32 AM
  3. mustangv8's Avatar
    Rim is always a short target after reported earnings. Almost as much as the likes of csco, aapl, dell(before the last two good reports).
    03-31-11 08:54 PM
  4. SCrid2000's Avatar
    I disagree with the statement that "Blackberry devices, which until the arrival of the iPhones were the default option for businesspeople in North America and Europe" because really, iPhone is not even near a default option with businesses. Maybe it will be, but it's not right now.
    I do agree with the overall tone of the article - now is a good time to buy RIMM. Help make your stockbroker some money
    04-01-11 12:58 AM
  5. JRSCCivic98's Avatar
    I disagree with the statement that "Blackberry devices, which until the arrival of the iPhones were the default option for businesspeople in North America and Europe" because really, iPhone is not even near a default option with businesses. Maybe it will be, but it's not right now.
    I do agree with the overall tone of the article - now is a good time to buy RIMM. Help make your stockbroker some money
    Actually a lot of businesses run Exchange and even te ones that were Lotus before are slowly migrating to Exchange and any mobile device that is ActiveSync capable is a flat out STEAL in terms of usability vs cost for companies because the license to connect those devices were already procured when they paid for the user CALs to make Exchange work. Soon Microsoft will also update their MSCMDM product to encompass iOS and Android devices and that will make these devices even more acceptable for enterprise use and deployment.
    04-01-11 01:23 AM
  6. SCrid2000's Avatar
    I can't speak for your line of work, but pretty much everyone I know with a business-issued smartphone has a BlackBerry.

    Posted from my CrackBerry at wapforums.crackberry.com
    04-01-11 01:37 AM
  7. JRSCCivic98's Avatar
    I can't speak for your line of work, but pretty much everyone I know with a business-issued smartphone has a BlackBerry.

    Posted from my CrackBerry at wapforums.crackberry.com
    That's because they're cheap to replace and easy to train on. The smartphone platform change from BB to other products is currently underway in the small business world where companies are pushed by tight budgets and they're starting to offset their smartphone purchases and ownership to the end user. The end user is a consumer first and most of them have migrated to iOS or Android based devices simply because of feature availability of them and the sheer market penetration they've had. Along with that those companies are saving licensing costs that the BB platform used to put them under. Basically, it's a transitional period, but with each coming day, the change is picking up depending on size and focus of said businesses.
    04-01-11 01:47 AM
  8. SCrid2000's Avatar
    That's because they're cheap to replace and easy to train on. The smartphone platform change from BB to other products is currently underway in the small business world where companies are pushed by tight budgets and they're starting to offset their smartphone purchases and ownership to the end user. The end user is a consumer first and most of them have migrated to iOS or Android based devices simply because of feature availability of them and the sheer market penetration they've had. Along with that those companies are saving licensing costs that the BB platform used to put them under. Basically, it's a transitional period, but with each coming day, the change is picking up depending on size and focus of said businesses.
    Again, perhaps that is the trend in businesses you deal with.
    But as far as government and large (and small) attorney firms, I don't think I've seen anyhing other than BlackBerrys.

    Posted from my CrackBerry at wapforums.crackberry.com
    04-01-11 03:25 AM
  9. JRSCCivic98's Avatar
    Again, perhaps that is the trend in businesses you deal with.
    But as far as government and large (and small) attorney firms, I don't think I've seen anyhing other than BlackBerrys.

    Posted from my CrackBerry at wapforums.crackberry.com
    Large government, yes. Small attorney firms, no. Actually the ones I've seen and dealt with have moved to iPhones because of a few apps available to them related to law that aren't available on the BB. They're also super critical about getting entire documents and truncation was a big no no in their field of work, especially when being stuck in court all day and needing large emails to do their jobs properly while away from the office. It could easily be a geographic trend, but it will filter through to other areas soon enough.
    04-01-11 11:28 AM
  10. qbnkelt's Avatar
    That's because they're cheap to replace and easy to train on. The smartphone platform change from BB to other products is currently underway in the small business world where companies are pushed by tight budgets and they're starting to offset their smartphone purchases and ownership to the end user. The end user is a consumer first and most of them have migrated to iOS or Android based devices simply because of feature availability of them and the sheer market penetration they've had. Along with that those companies are saving licensing costs that the BB platform used to put them under. Basically, it's a transitional period, but with each coming day, the change is picking up depending on size and focus of said businesses.
    I would say that the features BES offers make BB the only viable and feasible option. Cost is secondary to BES.
    04-01-11 11:39 AM
  11. JRSCCivic98's Avatar
    I would say that the features BES offers make BB the only viable and feasible option. Cost is secondary to BES.
    ActiveSync devices can be controlled in similar fashion. The issue is, most admins have been spoon fed BES stuff for so long, that's all they know now. However, you do have a point in terms of feature vs cost. The thing is, for companies that don't have super large IT budgets, cost becomes a primary concern very quickly and once they get done looking at all options, most of them don't even want to deal with BESX anymore either. This is why RIM needs to do something about the whole BES infrastructure and how it works. Hopefully the QNX OS builds will bring about a more dynamic way of controlling and injecting BB into the enterprise infrastructure without having to do it via old school ways of putting up a control server with a VPN tunnel back to RIM. RIM needs to go to the handheld/radio coverage/email server or web connectivity layout and get rid of the rediculous backend they have now. All it does is introduce limitations on transfer sizes and slow things down... not to mention break everyone's BB connectivity if it ever goes down.
    04-01-11 11:50 AM
  12. qbnkelt's Avatar
    ActiveSync devices can be controlled in similar fashion. The issue is, most admins have been spoon fed BES stuff for so long, that's all they know now. However, you do have a point in terms of feature vs cost. The thing is, for companies that don't have super large IT budgets, cost becomes a primary concern very quickly and once they get done looking at all options, most of them don't even want to deal with BESX anymore either. This is why RIM needs to do something about the whole BES infrastructure and how it works. Hopefully the QNX OS builds will bring about a more dynamic way of controlling and injecting BB into the enterprise infrastructure without having to do it via old school ways of putting up a control server with a VPN tunnel back to RIM. RIM needs to go to the handheld/radio coverage/email server or web connectivity layout and get rid of the rediculous backend they have now. All it does is introduce limitations on transfer sizes and slow things down... not to mention break everyone's BB connectivity if it ever goes down.
    Begging to disagree on one point - the monitoring capabilities of BES, which are unique to the platform.
    04-01-11 11:59 AM
  13. JRSCCivic98's Avatar
    Begging to disagree on one point - the monitoring capabilities of BES, which are unique to the platform.
    They are native to the platform, but not unique.
    04-01-11 12:02 PM
  14. qbnkelt's Avatar
    The level and type of monitoring is not replicated in Exchange.
    It is, of course, native to the platform but it is unique in the control that it allows to be exercised
    04-01-11 12:08 PM
  15. JRSCCivic98's Avatar
    The level and type of monitoring is not replicated in Exchange.
    It is, of course, native to the platform but it is unique in the control that it allows to be exercised
    I never said it was in Exchange, Q...
    04-01-11 04:54 PM
  16. i7guy's Avatar
    ActiveSync devices can be controlled in similar fashion. The issue is, most admins have been spoon fed BES stuff for so long, that's all they know now. However, you do have a point in terms of feature vs cost. The thing is, for companies that don't have super large IT budgets, cost becomes a primary concern very quickly and once they get done looking at all options, most of them don't even want to deal with BESX anymore either. This is why RIM needs to do something about the whole BES infrastructure and how it works. Hopefully the QNX OS builds will bring about a more dynamic way of controlling and injecting BB into the enterprise infrastructure without having to do it via old school ways of putting up a control server with a VPN tunnel back to RIM. RIM needs to go to the handheld/radio coverage/email server or web connectivity layout and get rid of the rediculous backend they have now. All it does is introduce limitations on transfer sizes and slow things down... not to mention break everyone's BB connectivity if it ever goes down.
    BES functions cannot be replicated with ActiveSync. Maybe with ActiveSync and other third party products.

    I've said along BES is overkill for certain businesses. But that does not include Fortune 500 companies and other customer with strigent requirements.

    As far as things going down, BES has gone down the same amount of times our Exchange server has in the last few years. Read into that what you want.
    04-01-11 09:03 PM
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