04-11-12 08:58 AM
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  1. ADozenEggs@aol.com's Avatar
    Some may find article of interest.


    Eric Savitz, Forbes Staff
    Covering the intersection of tech and investing.
    CIO NETWORK | 4/09/2012 @ 9:26AM |3,276 views
    Research In Motion: What's The Company Really Worth?

    So, how much is Research In Motion really worth?

    Sterne Agee analyst Shaw Wu took a fresh look this morning at how much value there is in the BlackBerry makers various parts the cash, subscriber base, patent portfolio and network. His overall conclusion is that there is value there, but that upside could be limited and there is risk to further downside for the companys shares.

    While we believe there is intrinsic value in RIMM, we are unsure if a price of over $7 billion makes sense, he writes in a research note. Current market cap is about $6.6 billion. He sees a valuation range of $5 billion to $7 billion for the various pieces of the company, for a stock price of $9.50 to $13.50 a share.

    Wus valuation estimates $3.50 a share in cash, $2-$3 a share for the patents, $2 to $4 a share for BlackBerry Messenger and $2 to $3 for BB10 and the push network.

    As for potential buyers, he lists Amazon, Microsoft, Samsung, HTC, Nokia and Facebook. But he notes that a key complication could be the Canadian government may not allow an acquisition by a foreign company due to national security interests. He also notes that Microsoft and Nokia have already placed big bets on Windows Phone 7.

    One potential area of disappointment for RIMM bulls will be Wus conclusion that the companys patents might not be all that valuable. He notes that some observers have been using as a proxy the $4.5 billion an Apple-led group that included RIM paid for a group of Nortel patents last year. But he contends that given the mixed track record Android has had in defending against Apple as well as RIMM getting sued earlier this month by NXP Semicondutor for infringement, a $2 billion to $3 billion valuation on the companys patents could be too optimistic. He thinks $1 billion to $1.5 billion might be more realistic.

    Wu keeps his Neutral rating on the stock, noting continues concerns with fundamental and the competitive environment.

    RIMM this morning is up 30 cents, or 2.4%, to $12.
    s7khan likes this.
    04-09-12 01:43 PM
  2. Doc Z's Avatar
    The only company I really see making a push for RIM is Amazon and maybe Facebook. The company isn't worth much to anyone else, patents alone won't provide a maximum valuation.
    04-09-12 01:45 PM
  3. menaknow's Avatar
    Amazon yes, Facebook, I don't really see.

    Perhaps Microsoft also just to get the business adoption, as it would help with Windows Phone...
    04-09-12 01:47 PM
  4. Thunderbuck's Avatar
    The only company I really see making a push for RIM is Amazon and maybe Facebook. The company isn't worth much to anyone else, patents alone won't provide a maximum valuation.
    I don't know about that. I've heard some speculation about a couple of other players:

    • HP - "Are you nuts? Didn't they get enough with their WebOS misadventure?!" Well, maybe not; with RIM's enterprise focus and established market, it could be a good fit in HP's portfolio. And it would be cheap.
    • Cisco - Pretty complementary product lines; Cisco is trying to work its way in to the messaging space as opposed to just the infrastructure; this immediately buys them some credibility.
    • IBM - RIM would be a cultural match; no competing product lines.


    So, no, I don't just see Amazon or FB...
    Doc Z likes this.
    04-09-12 01:51 PM
  5. Blackberry_boffin's Avatar
    HTC? Really? It is actually. Trying to turn its business around too after a few sour quarters. Much like RIM.
    04-09-12 01:51 PM
  6. siddo_d's Avatar
    RIM would be good with microsoft in my opinion

    Sent from my BlackBerry 9800 using Crackberry forums application
    04-09-12 01:56 PM
  7. crackedup77's Avatar
    Really? I thought the value would have been......

    *holds pinky to corner of mouth*

    ....one hundred million dollars!


    sorry. I had to.
    kbz1960 likes this.
    04-09-12 02:11 PM
  8. addicted44's Avatar
    RIM would be good with microsoft in my opinion

    Sent from my BlackBerry 9800 using Crackberry forums application
    Agreed. I can see MS, with them trying to convert all BES installations into Exchange ones.

    I really can't see anyone else purchasing RIM. Maybe a PE firm that will break them up into pieces, but that will be the end of BB.
    04-09-12 03:52 PM
  9. Doc Z's Avatar
    I don't know about that. I've heard some speculation about a couple of other players:

    • HP - "Are you nuts? Didn't they get enough with their WebOS misadventure?!" Well, maybe not; with RIM's enterprise focus and established market, it could be a good fit in HP's portfolio. And it would be cheap.
    • Cisco - Pretty complementary product lines; Cisco is trying to work its way in to the messaging space as opposed to just the infrastructure; this immediately buys them some credibility.
    • IBM - RIM would be a cultural match; no competing product lines.


    So, no, I don't just see Amazon or FB...
    Very good points. I'd love for Cisco to buy them up, I own both stocks so win-win for me
    04-09-12 03:56 PM
  10. CairnsRock's Avatar
    I don't know about that. I've heard some speculation about a couple of other players:

    • HP - "Are you nuts? Didn't they get enough with their WebOS misadventure?!" Well, maybe not; with RIM's enterprise focus and established market, it could be a good fit in HP's portfolio. And it would be cheap.
    • Cisco - Pretty complementary product lines; Cisco is trying to work its way in to the messaging space as opposed to just the infrastructure; this immediately buys them some credibility.
    • IBM - RIM would be a cultural match; no competing product lines.


    So, no, I don't just see Amazon or FB...
    Not IBM, their cost structure and lack of a distribution system, can not manage $500 widgets. They learned this lesson on PCs. They will never go that route again.
    Last edited by CairnsRock; 04-09-12 at 04:12 PM. Reason: Typo
    04-09-12 04:09 PM
  11. Real Estate Appraiser's Avatar
    In my uneducated opinion on the matter, I think it would make most sense for Microsoft. Maybe not right this second, but I don't think their winblows phones are going to take off.
    04-09-12 04:22 PM
  12. Laura Knotek's Avatar
    Amazon yes, Facebook, I don't really see.

    Perhaps Microsoft also just to get the business adoption, as it would help with Windows Phone...
    Facebook just paid $1 billion for Instagram.
    Last edited by lak611; 04-09-12 at 09:11 PM.
    04-09-12 04:27 PM
  13. s7khan's Avatar
    Interesting article. I wonder what exactly they used to value BBM (that was one of the most interesting points).
    04-09-12 04:32 PM
  14. CranBerry413's Avatar
    I'm not too sure what this article writer is trying to say...but if we're going by precedence (Recent Precedence anyways) Google Bought Motorola Mobile for $12 Billion.

    If that can be used in any logical way, then that's what we should go by.

    I'd say RIM is worth that range of prices including $12 Billion as the Middle Range, as I think RIM is far more valuable than Moto was. But I'm not sure, it's probably beyond me to fathom what a company is worth.
    04-09-12 04:58 PM
  15. hootyhoo's Avatar
    I'm not too sure what this article writer is trying to say...but if we're going by precedence (Recent Precedence anyways) Google Bought Motorola Mobile for $12 Billion.

    If that can be used in any logical way, then that's what we should go by.

    I'd say RIM is worth that range of prices including $12 Billion as the Middle Range, as I think RIM is far more valuable than Moto was. But I'm not sure, it's probably beyond me to fathom what a company is worth.

    Motorola has a MUCH bigger patent portfolio.
    04-09-12 05:49 PM
  16. Rootbrian's Avatar
    I DON'T want RIM to be bought out. Leve them to be as they are. Who wants to see anything bad happen to a great canadian company? I wouldn't, I won't.
    bbmme likes this.
    04-09-12 06:13 PM
  17. mokster's Avatar
    I think SAP would be the ideal partner to buy or merge with RIM.

    SAP has strength in the enterprise software stack and RIM has the hardware/mobile OS to drive enterprise apps out to devices.

    Plus Thorsten Heins is german so the setup is perfect.
    04-09-12 11:35 PM
  18. phoreoneone's Avatar
    don't sell rim just change them internally.

    Sent from my BlackBerry Runtime for Android Apps using Tapatalk
    04-10-12 12:00 AM
  19. _StephenBB81's Avatar
    Well Wu has been one of the longest Negative analysts in the main stream, he certainly has made a great name for himself bad mouthing RIM and getting quoted for it.

    I think the valuation of BBM is out to lunch far too high, but the valuation on their service revenue and revenue potential is greatly lacking any confidence or belief that RIM can sell any mobile fusion installations, basically he's betting on RIM failing at everything they try, and anyone buying them to assume RIM has no hopes which wouldn't make sense to buy them.

    RIM's patent portfolio would probably work best for Nokia/ Microsoft kind of partners as they would include back end system patents and technology, Also something Apple could benefit from if they really wanted to get serious about Secured enterprise deployment,

    until BB10 comes out I wouldn't really put a value above $14 on the share, but also wouldn't put it below $12, as long as they are managing inventory better, which they spoke about handling, and managing resources better with the management shake up, they shouldn't be eating into the cash reserves, if anything those reserves should grow, meaning the shares really should stay pretty consistent unless more doom and gloom writers drive it down.

    after BB10, and if Mobile fusion does half as well as Good Technologies does with installation base The shares really should go up and see a fair P/E ratio in the 7-8ish range not the 4-5ish range, and then hopefully RIM can get their Earnings per share up!
    04-10-12 12:30 AM
  20. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    I think SAP would be the ideal partner to buy or merge with RIM.
    SAP has strength in the enterprise software stack and RIM has the hardware/mobile OS to drive enterprise apps out to devices.
    Plus Thorsten Heins is german so the setup is perfect.
    I think there has been a RIM/SAP join venture already ... big fail.

    Strange, Samsung seems out of debate while :
    - They are already running multiple OSes (Bada/Tizen, MS, Androd)
    - They have this "shoot all directions" culture (and have no infrastructure solution)
    - They have huge cash available
    - They are upset/worried about Google/Motorola fusion
    - They did not, lately, denied they could "join" RIM
    04-10-12 04:49 AM
  21. n8ter#AC's Avatar
    BES runs atop Exchange so they don't need RIM for that.

    Agreed. I can see MS, with them trying to convert all BES installations into Exchange ones.



    I really can't see anyone else purchasing RIM. Maybe a PE firm that will break them up into pieces, but that will be the end of BB.

    Sent from my HD7 using Board Express
    04-10-12 06:52 AM
  22. CranBerry413's Avatar
    Motorola has a MUCH bigger patent portfolio.
    And Much less Profits...which last time I checked was what every business was after.

    Although, you make a good point. They do have a large number of patents, I'm not sure that whatever their portfolio is sized at, that it's worth any signifigant percentage of what that $12 Billion pricetag was.
    Last edited by CranBerry413; 04-10-12 at 08:31 AM.
    04-10-12 08:20 AM
  23. Sith_Apprentice's Avatar
    Agreed. I can see MS, with them trying to convert all BES installations into Exchange ones.

    I really can't see anyone else purchasing RIM. Maybe a PE firm that will break them up into pieces, but that will be the end of BB.

    MOST BES installations already work with Exchange, they dont exist without a messaging environment, and Exchange is easily the leader in this department.
    04-11-12 08:34 AM
  24. Sith_Apprentice's Avatar
    Well Wu has been one of the longest Negative analysts in the main stream, he certainly has made a great name for himself bad mouthing RIM and getting quoted for it.

    I think the valuation of BBM is out to lunch far too high, but the valuation on their service revenue and revenue potential is greatly lacking any confidence or belief that RIM can sell any mobile fusion installations, basically he's betting on RIM failing at everything they try, and anyone buying them to assume RIM has no hopes which wouldn't make sense to buy them.

    RIM's patent portfolio would probably work best for Nokia/ Microsoft kind of partners as they would include back end system patents and technology, Also something Apple could benefit from if they really wanted to get serious about Secured enterprise deployment,

    until BB10 comes out I wouldn't really put a value above $14 on the share, but also wouldn't put it below $12, as long as they are managing inventory better, which they spoke about handling, and managing resources better with the management shake up, they shouldn't be eating into the cash reserves, if anything those reserves should grow, meaning the shares really should stay pretty consistent unless more doom and gloom writers drive it down.

    after BB10, and if Mobile fusion does half as well as Good Technologies does with installation base The shares really should go up and see a fair P/E ratio in the 7-8ish range not the 4-5ish range, and then hopefully RIM can get their Earnings per share up!
    This wont be the issue. The issue will be Fixmo's new content coming out. It actually makes Mobile Fusion look horrible in comparison. Ive seen it on an Ipad (though it works on BlackBerry devices as well with a Playbook client coming) and it is very smooth and extremely well done. Good Technologies will get eaten alive by it, and itll go toe to toe with RIM.
    04-11-12 08:37 AM
  25. _StephenBB81's Avatar
    This wont be the issue. The issue will be Fixmo's new content coming out. It actually makes Mobile Fusion look horrible in comparison. Ive seen it on an Ipad (though it works on BlackBerry devices as well with a Playbook client coming) and it is very smooth and extremely well done. Good Technologies will get eaten alive by it, and itll go toe to toe with RIM.

    I haven't seen Fixmo's installation, nor have I heard much about it.

    The question will be, Can Fixmo steal BES installations before RIM can get Mobile fusion into them?
    and Can Fixmo steal Good Technology installations from Company's who USED to have BES before RIM can reintroduce BES / MF,

    I would love to see an Article that pits BES/MF and all the feature sets against FixMo, and Good Technologies
    04-11-12 08:46 AM
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