06-03-15 10:01 AM
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  1. Old_Mil's Avatar
    9:21 EDT - BlackBerry's (BBRY) new Passport and Classic phones are struggling to gain traction with customers, RBC suggests, but the investment bank remains somewhat upbeat about the company's prospects selling mobile-management software and security services. RBC now expects BBRY to sell just 700K smartphones for the about-to-conclude F1Q, just half the investment bank's prior view.

    https://trading.scottrade.com/quotes...cks%2fsnapshot
    05-19-15 09:56 AM
  2. anon(8865116)'s Avatar
    It's probably going to be close to 1 million but I'm not expecting any surprises. I'm hoping there are some wild cards I'm not thinking of though.
    Last edited by mtthwmtthw; 05-19-15 at 03:33 PM.
    05-19-15 11:32 AM
  3. sk8er_tor's Avatar
    This coming from the same RBC that said there was "meaningful demand" for the Z10 and Q10 two years ago. We know how sales turned out for the Z10.
    05-19-15 11:36 AM
  4. howarmat's Avatar
    Considering the new devices haven't even been released yet id say that's a bit naive, especially at a 50% reduction. However, if they don't release anything new I'd say 700-1000k is just about right. I'm waiting for that Asian passport because I think selling it in China could be a decent wild card. I don't know how people receive PKBs in China though so I am talking out of my ****
    what new devices? the quarter ends in about 10 days...
    05-19-15 11:46 AM
  5. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    "Classic - Passport - Customers."

    What I want to see is
    "Classic - Leap - Enterprises" figures.
    We should soon know about it.
    05-19-15 12:26 PM
  6. Ment's Avatar
    Last old gen inventory being sold in channel. New devices don't have the demand the old devices had when they were launched. Devices aren't the savior of BBRY. No use pumping up figures like they are, but BB isn't getting rid of devices either.
    05-19-15 12:45 PM
  7. anon(8865116)'s Avatar
    what new devices? the quarter ends in about 10 days...
    LOL I just noticed this. I apologize. That's what I get for waking up way early to work on stuff. For some reason I thought it was talking about yearly, but even then, the numbers I was stating would be for the quarter. I think I just need a whole new brain. And yeah, I'd say 700-1000k is about right but closer to 1000k in my mind, hopefully I am wrong.
    05-19-15 03:31 PM
  8. lnichols's Avatar
    But wait, Chen said PKB is what the customers want! LOL. The smoke that man can blow up stuff!

    Posted via CB10
    05-19-15 06:14 PM
  9. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    You're somehow unfair.
    He said that it was needed to ease BBOS user conversion to BB10. Classic has been designed (in particular) for those users.
    But I agree that the mantra was "PKB is the greatest differenciator". Not what I've heard lately in BlackBerry headquarters (FR) about enteprises and Leap.
    Things change fast ... trend is not an exception.
    Bbnivende and MarsupilamiX like this.
    05-20-15 05:32 AM
  10. lnichols's Avatar
    You're somehow unfair.
    He said that it was needed to ease BBOS user conversion to BB10. Classic has been designed (in particular) for those users.
    But I agree that the mantra was "PKB is the greatest differenciator". Not what I've heard lately in BlackBerry headquarters (FR) about enteprises and Leap.
    Things change fast ... trend is not an exception.
    The Leap is not another reactionary device. In the year it took to get the Classic out, they lost more customers to all touch, but clearly don't have the talent and resource to focus on multiple devices simultaneously so they made a device using Z10/Q10/Classic internals with a low end but large screen required no OS changes and minimal design effort. This is clearly the approach they took with the Classic too except that device required much more work on the OS side. The low effort BlackBerry put in on both will produce low results is my guess. We'll know more around June 23rd.

    Posted with my Z30
    05-20-15 06:20 AM
  11. keithhackneysmullet's Avatar
    BlackBerry handset sales by year since 2009

    2009 34 million
    2010 47 million
    2011 52 million
    2012 34 million
    2013 19 million
    2014 8 million
    2015 3 million estimated

    *all figures rounded to the nearest million source
    www.statista.com

    Posted via CB10
    05-20-15 09:40 AM
  12. birdman_38's Avatar
    BlackBerry handset sales by year since 2009

    2009 34 million
    2010 47 million
    2011 52 million
    2012 34 million
    2013 19 million
    2014 8 million
    2015 3 million estimated

    *all figures rounded to the nearest million source
    www.statista.com
    Shrinking into irrelevance.
    05-20-15 10:03 AM
  13. serbanescu's Avatar
    As long as Chen still wants to make devices, there is hope ...
    MarsupilamiX likes this.
    05-20-15 10:11 AM
  14. birdman_38's Avatar
    As long as Chen still wants to make devices, there is hope ...
    He has no choice.
    05-20-15 10:19 AM
  15. playpen007's Avatar
    BlackBerry sold more than 1 million BB10 last quarter and it's not even sale everywhere yet and now BlackBerry sale a lot of places in the world and with more carriers carry them. Don't underestimate Mr. Chen! He keeps saying again and again BlackBerry hardware will make money, but the most important, software is their main revenues.
    thymaster likes this.
    05-20-15 10:24 AM
  16. lnichols's Avatar
    BlackBerry handset sales by year since 2009

    2009 34 million
    2010 47 million
    2011 52 million
    2012 34 million
    2013 19 million
    2014 8 million
    2015 3 million estimated

    *all figures rounded to the nearest million source
    www.statista.com

    Posted via CB10
    Yes but while the number of devices was going up, the ASP per device was going down because they were selling low end devices in low end markets to people on low end plans. It wasn't a sustainable business model. They were selling more 83xx devices than iPhones at one point to, but Apple had higher ASP and maintains a high ASP to this date. Cheap Androids have wiped out their low end markets as data services became cheaper making BIS irrelevant, and mid markets list to Android, and Apple has wiped out the high end. They get an ASP bump at new device releases, but it drops again quickly after a quarter or two.

    Posted with my Z30
    serbanescu and MarsupilamiX like this.
    05-20-15 10:44 AM
  17. jeffydude05's Avatar
    They have to either drop devices or stop selling to consumers. Make a classic/ BB10 curve...refresh it every 3/4 years for enterprise.
    05-20-15 10:52 AM
  18. kellyTKD's Avatar
    BlackBerry handset sales by year since 2009

    2009 34 million
    2010 47 million
    2011 52 million
    2012 34 million
    2013 19 million
    2014 8 million
    2015 3 million estimated
    I guess that explains this:

    RBC Halves BlackBerry's 1Q Handset-Sales View -- Market Talk-cfdrwk1wmaavbgo.jpg
    crackberry_geek likes this.
    05-20-15 11:08 AM
  19. keithhackneysmullet's Avatar
    Yes but while the number of devices was going up, the ASP per device was going down because they were selling low end devices in low end markets to people on low end plans. It wasn't a sustainable business model. They were selling more 83xx devices than iPhones at one point to, but Apple had higher ASP and maintains a high ASP to this date. Cheap Androids have wiped out their low end markets as data services became cheaper making BIS irrelevant, and mid markets list to Android, and Apple has wiped out the high end. They get an ASP bump at new device releases, but it drops again quickly after a quarter or two.

    Posted with my Z30
    Fire sales have killed the brand value. I shouldn't be able to buy a brand new z10 for $120. The unsold playbooks,z10,q10, and z30's should have been dumped in that pit Atari used to get rid of unsold ET cartridges.

    Posted via CB10
    eyesopen1111 likes this.
    05-20-15 11:09 AM
  20. lnichols's Avatar
    Fire sales have killed the brand value. I shouldn't be able to buy a brand new z10 for $120. The unsold playbooks,z10,q10, and z30's should have been dumped in that pit Atari used to get rid of unsold ET cartridges.

    Posted via CB10
    The brand value was dropping with BBOS before the fire sales. 85xx and 92xx devices were very low ASP devices.

    Posted with my Z30
    kbz1960 and MarsupilamiX like this.
    05-20-15 12:09 PM
  21. jojo beaconsfield's Avatar
    Life stinks right now and unless they get innovative, well,I can't see sales going up. Come on, with all those patents isn't it about time to pull something out of the bag and help themselves, I can't believe that they are letting the company dwindle away.

    Sent from my BlackBerry Passport
    MarsupilamiX likes this.
    05-20-15 03:24 PM
  22. lnichols's Avatar
    I posted something in another thread that had an interview with Chen while at Sybase just before the SAP merger. He basically did the same thing. Let the businesses that existed run without much change, dwindle. Attach the company to some grandiose idea that doesn't really have an identity (IOT), and wait to find the right company to buy that puts you in that grandiose idea and define it. My guess is he is waiting to figure out what the next move is via an acquisition. I don't think he sees handsets as being anything other than the thing he has to keep going until the next thing presents itself to him. I was kinda stunned reading the interview and seeing how things are pretty stagnant, almost regressive, since he took over on the Bb10 and hardware side.

    Posted with my Z30
    05-20-15 03:37 PM
  23. anon(8865116)'s Avatar
    I posted something in another thread that had an interview with Chen while at Sybase just before the SAP merger. He basically did the same thing. Let the businesses that existed run without much change, dwindle. Attach the company to some grandiose idea that doesn't really have an identity (IOT), and wait to find the right company to buy that puts you in that grandiose idea and define it. My guess is he is waiting to figure out what the next move is via an acquisition. I don't think he sees handsets as being anything other than the thing he has to keep going until the next thing presents itself to him. I was kinda stunned reading the interview and seeing how things are pretty stagnant, almost regressive, since he took over on the Bb10 and hardware side.

    Posted with my Z30
    Only problem with blackberry is that depending on how you spin it, it could be worth 2 -3x the current value of around 5 billion. At 10-15 billion you're looking at a very small population that can afford it. Google, Apple, Ibm, Microsoft, Cisco. I don't think sap can even afford blackberry above 6
    05-20-15 06:15 PM
  24. lnichols's Avatar
    Only problem with blackberry is that depending on how you spin it, it could be worth 2 -3x the current value of around 5 billion. At 10-15 billion you're looking at a very small population that can afford it. Google, Apple, Ibm, Microsoft, Cisco. I don't think sap can even afford blackberry above 6
    Nah in the interview http://www.itworld.com/article/27584...urnaround.html, he said that Sybase hung in there based off customer loyalty and then bought a company called Powersoft, actually in Waterloo which was interesting. He was going to shut the place down, but instead after meeting with the people there, liked them and their loyalty, and came back and though of something that they could do for the company. It was basically tiny Java compilers that could compile things of 60,000 bytes.

    So I really think he plans to coast on existing customer loyalty until he gets whatever it is that BlackBerry will become, and then will run with that. I don't know if the end goal is to be bought or not. I guess if they could be the big boy, then they don't need bought, but right now all we here is they don't have the resources to do anything new or different so if that is the case then...

    Posted with my Z30
    early2bed likes this.
    05-20-15 07:20 PM
  25. keithhackneysmullet's Avatar
    Only problem with blackberry is that depending on how you spin it, it could be worth 2 -3x the current value of around 5 billion. At 10-15 billion you're looking at a very small population that can afford it. Google, Apple, Ibm, Microsoft, Cisco. I don't think sap can even afford blackberry above 6
    I don't think he was inferring sap buy BlackBerry. The article he linked is a really in depth with Chen where he gives up the secret sauce on sybase. What he is saying is Chen is currently using the same strategy he used at sybase keep the current business on life support while looking for a next generation business. It may not have anything to do phones or mobile operating systems. BlackBerry may end up as some kind security middle ware developer for iot or whatever. Chen isn't married to the BlackBerry we are on this forum discussing everyday. Right now he is killing time throwing darts at the board hoping something sticks.

    Posted via CB10
    Last edited by keithhackneysmullet; 05-20-15 at 07:43 PM.
    05-20-15 07:25 PM
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