12-07-12 12:22 AM
28 12
  1. howarmat's Avatar
    I think that you are jumping to the wrong conclusion to think that 30% of their current users will leave based on that 70% figure will upgrade, some will leave but others will stick with their current bb since it works for them right now.

    The first year of bb10 will be about stemming the tide of departures and getting as many people upgrading as possible (say 40-50m in year 1), if they can stop their marketshare from eroding further and increase their overall subscriber base they will be quite happy, providing that the ASP of the handhelds remains high enough.
    right, i was using the 30% as an extreme number. meaning i you have 30% of the current 80 million leave (24 million) but still end up with 84 million at the end of the year that means 28 million new customers and hopefully the majority of them on bb10.

    In reality they should not lose that many customers and if they sell 20-25 million bb10 devices hopefully they also blow past 84 million also.
    12-06-12 05:41 PM
  2. jbiggdaddy's Avatar
    To flesh it out a bit the article mentioned above is an interview with Gus Papageorgiou :

    I recently spoke with Gus Papageorgiou who is the long-time Research In Motion(RIMM) analyst for Scotia Capital out of Toronto. Hes seen the company over a number of years good times and bad.

    Back in October, he was one of the first analysts to upgrade the company on the hopes of the coming BB10 phones which will be announced on January 30th. He has a $16 target on the stock.

    The interview is comprised of 17 questions and answers. Well worth the read. Here's question/answer 17:

    17. What are the chances in the upside scenario you discuss that RIMs stock is about to go on another run like it saw from late 2002 to late 2004?

    I will know better in February. But I think RIM is making all the right moves. If you look at their decisions on software development, developer relations, carrier relations, hardware choices, enterprise initiatives, I dont think there is one area where I would say That was a bad decision. But in the end it will come down to whether or not consumers will want the new devices I think there is a good chance they will.
    i"m not believing a delay unless it comes from a statement from somebody from rim. Plus the key words in his statement is " I'll know better in february"
    12-06-12 08:33 PM
  3. BBNation's Avatar
    I am not sure why these guys saying that 70% of bb7 users will upgraded the matter of fact that more than 60% total BB users are in developing countries with lower end BBs so they will not be upgrading straight to bb10. RIM will keep selling more bb7 then bb10 in those countries in most of 2013 and then as RIM release lower end bb10 models people will upgrade. One of the reason RIM is popluar in emeging market is that bbs are less expensive, carrier agnostics and great messaging tool..
    12-07-12 12:22 AM
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