09-12-16 06:24 AM
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  1. KAM1138's Avatar
    Every single BBOS user got repeated direct marketing from BlackBerry regarding the new BB10 devices.

    Priv STV100-1 AAF518 / Q5SQR100-1/10.3.3.746
    Yes along with a barrage of media that said Blackberry was done.

    Does anyone want to claim Blackberry's marketing effectively countered that?

    KAM
    07-25-16 12:08 AM
  2. Denise in Los Angeles's Avatar
    Yes along with a barrage of media that said Blackberry was done.

    Does anyone want to claim Blackberry's marketing effectively countered that?

    KAM
    BlackBerry did and does send targeted marketing to previous customers, such as ads for the new Priv.

    That marketing is NOT overcoming their toxic reputation, including media reports of BlackBerry being dead, or just not trustworthy enough to buy their phones.


    Posted via the Diva's beautiful Red Passport!
    KAM1138 likes this.
    07-25-16 12:57 AM
  3. curves2000's Avatar
    Not a good analogy. Chen was not making less money with his BB10 phones. He was making no money. He was losing money. It's not like a salary cut.

    Only way this works is if Foxcon (for some of the Chen BB10 devices) put up all the money to design and build the phone, advance all the money for the inventory and then BB got to keep the revenue and somehow not realize any of the losses from poor sales until later. I don't think the risk was shifted this much, and, if so, I don't think we have that information.


    I am aware it wasn't a great analogy but I was trying to illustrate a scenario with less and less revenue.

    If you think of your salary as revenue just like a company does the analogy makes a bit more sense.

    BlackBerry just wasn't able to completely shut down the hardware business no matter how much they were losing on it. People who were working on products and services for the future needed to be paid. Other expenses that were fixed needed to be paid.

    I believe BlackBerry had $250 mil a year in software revenue in FY 2015. The goal was to double that. If BlackBerry just stopped selling phones and completely shut down hardware and all its associated revenue sources the company would have been bankrupt due to lack of cash.

    Without knowing BlackBerry and John Chen's internal plan they needed to try and keep hardware going as long as possible. I am of the belief that turning around the hardware division has been a lot harder than I think John Chen suspected. If you look at the user base from even 2 years ago, BlackBerry had I believe around 45-50 million users. As of the last financial report they were at 20 million.

    In hindsight if Chen was able to see such an erosion in the business than perhaps they would have shut down the hardware division a little quicker and maybe not have gone down the Passport, Classic, Leap route etc. Who knows? Perhaps they would have accelerated development of the Android hardware strategy.

    Who knows what shoulda, coulda, woulda had occurred. At the end of the day BB10 is one it's last day and the Android hardware plan is the last kick at the can. There isn't another option but the Financials are at least pointing to a potential for a small profit.

    Go Blackberry Go!

    Posted via CB10
    07-25-16 03:22 AM
  4. Chuck Finley69's Avatar
    I am aware it wasn't a great analogy but I was trying to illustrate a scenario with less and less revenue.

    If you think of your salary as revenue just like a company does the analogy makes a bit more sense.

    BlackBerry just wasn't able to completely shut down the hardware business no matter how much they were losing on it. People who were working on products and services for the future needed to be paid. Other expenses that were fixed needed to be paid.

    I believe BlackBerry had $250 mil a year in software revenue in FY 2015. The goal was to double that. If BlackBerry just stopped selling phones and completely shut down hardware and all its associated revenue sources the company would have been bankrupt due to lack of cash.

    Without knowing BlackBerry and John Chen's internal plan they needed to try and keep hardware going as long as possible. I am of the belief that turning around the hardware division has been a lot harder than I think John Chen suspected. If you look at the user base from even 2 years ago, BlackBerry had I believe around 45-50 million users. As of the last financial report they were at 20 million.

    In hindsight if Chen was able to see such an erosion in the business than perhaps they would have shut down the hardware division a little quicker and maybe not have gone down the Passport, Classic, Leap route etc. Who knows? Perhaps they would have accelerated development of the Android hardware strategy.

    Who knows what shoulda, coulda, woulda had occurred. At the end of the day BB10 is one it's last day and the Android hardware plan is the last kick at the can. There isn't another option but the Financials are at least pointing to a potential for a small profit.

    Go Blackberry Go!

    Posted via CB10
    The move away from hardware pretty much has gone as planned. I don't believe there has ever been any real plan to salvage hardware as much as to keep it alive to dump all BB10 components and keep enough illusion of hardware commitment until software business was more developed. They'll keep hardware if the business can stand alone with positive cash flow and maybe be inexpensive medium to demonstrate the software capabilities of BlackBerry within the Android ecosystem.

    Posted via the CrackBerry App for Android
    07-25-16 11:50 AM
  5. markmall's Avatar
    The move away from hardware pretty much has gone as planned. I don't believe there has ever been any real plan to salvage hardware as much as to keep it alive to dump all BB10 components and keep enough illusion of hardware commitment until software business was more developed. They'll keep hardware if the business can stand alone with positive cash flow and maybe be inexpensive medium to demonstrate the software capabilities of BlackBerry within the Android ecosystem.

    Posted via the CrackBerry App for Android
    Chen: "I meant to do that."
    07-25-16 01:42 PM
  6. app_Developer's Avatar
    I think that is a misperception. Fairfax and co. are still largely creditors. Chen's first duty is to the shareholders. He can't cheat the creditors, but his primary duty is to the owners of the company -- the shareholders.

    Maybe in reality he is serving Prem, but he should be focused on everyone that owns shares.
    Fairfax is still one of their largest shareholders with about 45m shares.

    https://m.holdingschannel.com/13f/fa...-top-holdings/

    What's interesting is how much of Fairfax's fund is invested in BlackBerry. Watsa hired Chen to salvage what he can. Otherwise Watsa has some explaining to do to his own investors, doesn't he?
    07-25-16 01:51 PM
  7. Chuck Finley69's Avatar
    Chen: "I meant to do that."
    Based on your previous comments, you seem to want everything fair, black and white. Blackberry did not really make a deal with shareholders at the end of TH's reign. The company was almost broke. Making the deal with Fairfax was almost making a deal with the "devil". Fairfax made a tentative offer for the company and there were no other takers. Since nobody bid on the company, it was headed for bankruptcy if Fairfax didn't buy it outright. Then Fairfax pulled it's offer and instead offered to become in essence, the largest financially interested party ahead of other creditors and shareholders in case the bankruptcy happened anyway. Fairfax took a combination of debt, preferred and common stock in exchange for providing the company with sorely needed cash for expenses and debt restructuring and this was contingent on Blackberry hiring Chen. Once Chen was hired, the company bumped against bankruptcy with it's debt restructuring and then asset sales. This was almost the same as bankruptcy without the stigma if they filed and had entered a prepackaged chapter 11. Hardware was kept around for CASH FLOW not profitability but also to calm the nerves of large software clients. That's why everything was done where it's only cheaper to do project than costs to cancel with suppliers. Troy and Conite have done a great job explaining technical and sales reasons for doing this. I can only explain from the Wall Street end of things.

    Posted via the CrackBerry App for Android
    07-25-16 02:18 PM
  8. Chuck Finley69's Avatar
    Fairfax is still one of their largest shareholders with about 45m shares.

    https://m.holdingschannel.com/13f/fa...-top-holdings/

    What's interesting is how much of Fairfax's fund is invested in BlackBerry. Watsa hired Chen to salvage what he can. Otherwise Watsa has some explaining to do to his own investors, doesn't he?
    Creditors have seniority over shareholders in corporate litigation.
    Pecking order is debtholders/preferred/stockholders. That's why a chunk of money is debt and preferred too.

    Posted via the CrackBerry App for Android
    07-25-16 02:20 PM
  9. Dunt Dunt Dunt's Avatar
    Creditors have seniority over shareholders in corporate litigation.
    Pecking order is debtholders/preferred/stockholders. That's why a chunk of money is debt and preferred too.

    Posted via the CrackBerry App for Android
    Yeah I think Watsa plans for a profitable turn around on his investment are pretty much history.

    Like many here he was hoping for a successful hardware company to rebound with $20 - $30 Billions in revenues to drive the stock back up to about $100. What he will get is a software company that may or may not be able to sustain $2 Billion in revenues... which won't drive the stock up all that far.
    07-25-16 02:30 PM
  10. Chuck Finley69's Avatar
    Yeah I think Watsa plans for a profitable turn around on his investment are pretty much history.

    Like many here he was hoping for a successful hardware company to rebound with $20 - $30 Billions in revenues to drive the stock back up to about $100. What he will get is a software company that may or may not be able to sustain $2 Billion in revenues... which won't drive the stock up all that far.
    Prem is playing the long game like VC/PE did with companies like Sybase with executives like Chen in charge of turnaround. Using debt/equity combos protects their risk in overall. At this stage of turnaround, Prem should come out ahead on deal within next few years.

    Posted via the CrackBerry App for Android
    07-25-16 02:40 PM
  11. Chuck Finley69's Avatar
    Prem is playing the long game like VC/PE did with companies like Sybase with executives like Chen in charge of turnaround. Using debt/equity combos protects their risk in overall. At this stage of turnaround, Prem should come out ahead on deal within next few years.

    Probably never considered a huge 10 price return. That's what VC is for.

    Posted via the CrackBerry App for Android
    Posted via the CrackBerry App for Android
    07-25-16 02:42 PM
  12. app_Developer's Avatar
    Prem is playing the long game like VC/PE did with companies like Sybase with executives like Chen in charge of turnaround. Using debt/equity combos protects their risk in overall. At this stage of turnaround, Prem should come out ahead on deal within next few years.
    We'll see. I listened to an early interview with Watsa when they first invested in BBRY. I think he knows very little about this industry and will be lucky to get out with a manageable loss. This was a big mistake for him. Even the best have their off moments.

    I agree he's managing the downside risk well. I just doubt he will end up making money on this.
    Dunt Dunt Dunt likes this.
    07-25-16 02:46 PM
  13. Chuck Finley69's Avatar
    We'll see. I listened to an early interview with Watsa when they first invested in BBRY. I think he knows very little about this industry and will be lucky to get out with a manageable loss. This was a big mistake for him. Even the best have their off moments.

    I agree he's managing the downside risk well. I just doubt he will end up making money on this.
    After 25 years on the street all I know is that guys that act like they don't know much usually either know a lot more or employ people that do. These guys never telegraph all true intentions. Like Warren Buffet nurtures the guy next door, aw shucks persona, until you're across table from him. Another was Sam Walton in his old pickup. He ground suppliers up for breakfast every morning.

    Posted via the CrackBerry App for Android
    DrBoomBotz likes this.
    07-25-16 02:51 PM
  14. app_Developer's Avatar
    After 25 years on the street all I know is that guys that act like they don't know much usually either know a lot more or employ people that do. These guys never telegraph all true intentions. Like Warren Buffet nurtures the guy next door, aw shucks persona, until you're across table from him. Another was Sam Walton in his old pickup. He ground suppliers up for breakfast every morning.
    But Watsa and Buffett have both lost money on investments, right? They aren't infallible. The results in this case tell the story. We'll check back in a year or two, but I bet this ends in an acquisition that nets Watsa a small loss that he can defend to his investors and move on.

    Buffett was smart to stay out of Tech for as long as he did. It's a different world and he knew it. He is, of course, amazing in the industries which he understands.
    07-25-16 02:57 PM
  15. Dunt Dunt Dunt's Avatar
    We'll see. I listened to an early interview with Watsa when they first invested in BBRY. I think he knows very little about this industry and will be lucky to get out with a manageable loss. This was a big mistake for him. Even the best have their off moments.

    I agree he's managing the downside risk well. I just doubt he will end up making money on this.
    He'll get back his buy in price... but not sure he'll get back the 10% - 20% yearly earnings, especially when you look at how long he has been tied up in BBRY.

    And that is one of Prem problems... can't collect on the loan, without damaging the other "investment" he has in BBRY. So the money just sits there....
    07-25-16 03:01 PM
  16. Chuck Finley69's Avatar
    But Watsa and Buffett have both lost money on investments, right? They aren't infallible. The results in this case tell the story. We'll check back in a year or two, but I bet this ends in an acquisition that nets Watsa a small loss that he can defend to his investors and move on.

    Buffett was smart to stay out of Tech for as long as he did. It's a different world and he knew it. He is, of course, amazing in the industries which he understands.
    Of course they have lost money many times but I think Fairfax overall cost basis is less than anticipated. Many of Buffett's 90's deals were long underwater dragouts that came together in the end for decent profits. Sometimes the profit happens with the new positions owned in a takeover company.

    Posted via the CrackBerry App for Android
    07-25-16 03:03 PM
  17. markmall's Avatar
    Of course they have lost money many times but I think Fairfax overall cost basis is less than anticipated. Many of Buffett's 90's deals were long underwater dragouts that came together in the end for decent profits. Sometimes the profit happens with the new positions owned in a takeover company.

    Posted via the CrackBerry App for Android
    This situation is dire because the value in Blackberry was its hardware and the software revenue that derived from it. Chen does not have a business model right now. It's all a lot of talk. IoT and such. None of the great tech that Blackberry had has been marketed with any success. Yeah, I know it tough out there but Blackberry had things going on. BBM was an asset with value. Stickers? Blend on BB10? That is great software no one knows about. I guess it will die with BB10 unless a new phone comes out someday.
    07-25-16 07:56 PM
  18. Chuck Finley69's Avatar
    Chen only needs to do what Prem tells him to do basically and then all is good since it's their money.

    Posted via the CrackBerry App for Android
    07-26-16 12:30 AM
  19. julianruedabby's Avatar
    Sad they won't continue with BlackBerry 10. Android has so much more to offer application wide, I wish they would have for us! Love my Q10 always!

    Posted via CB10
    07-26-16 03:04 AM
  20. saintebony5's Avatar
    Seems like the UK has completely gone off BlackBerry phones anyway. Can't find any anywhere...????

    Posted via CB10
    07-27-16 03:58 AM
  21. curves2000's Avatar
    Hi all,

    When I originally started this thread it was based upon a Bloomberg article I had read. COO Marty Beard had indicated that BlackBerry may still bring another BB10 device to market. We all know how remote that might be but it was still said.

    I came across this interview with John Chen. The interview was done in April of this year and it talks about BlackBerry's turn around plan, upcoming software updates for BlackBerry 10, encryption debate etc.

    In the interview John Chen mentions one of the reasons why they are releasing the new software updates is for the security certification which we know. He mentions this is to drive additional sales which I found rather interesting. He then confirms that they may still launch another BlackBerry 10 Device after 10.3.4. That part of the interview starts around the 6:40 minute mark.

    Good overall interview in my opinion. It can be found here.

    Posted via CB10
    07-28-16 03:49 AM
  22. DamianWarS's Avatar
    Hi all,

    When I originally started this thread it was based upon a Bloomberg article I had read. COO Marty Beard had indicated that BlackBerry may still bring another BB10 device to market. We all know how remote that might be but it was still said.

    I came across this interview with John Chen. The interview was done in April of this year and it talks about BlackBerry's turn around plan, upcoming software updates for BlackBerry 10, encryption debate etc.

    In the interview John Chen mentions one of the reasons why they are releasing the new software updates is for the security certification which we know. He mentions this is to drive additional sales which I found rather interesting. He then confirms that they may still launch another BlackBerry 10 Device after 10.3.4. That part of the interview starts around the 6:40 minute mark.

    Good overall interview in my opinion. It can be found here.

    Posted via CB10
    Chen has already mentioned drivers for quadcom are too expensive to invest in right now which is one of the reasons android was so compelling. What's the point in rebranding old devices with the same specs cause it doesn't matter how you package them they'll still run the same. I assume if bb becomes profitable enough to invest in device hardware is when they will release another bb10 device.
    07-28-16 08:50 AM
  23. conite's Avatar
    I assume if bb becomes profitable enough to invest in device hardware is when they will release another bb10 device.
    But why would they need to? Chen said that in six to eight months Blackberry Android will be just as secure as bb10 with Blackberry hardened nougat.
    07-28-16 09:02 AM
  24. Dunt Dunt Dunt's Avatar
    But why would they need to? Chen said that in six to eight months Blackberry Android will be just as secure as bb10 with Blackberry hardened nougat.
    I'm thinking it will be tough for them to be marginally profitable with these Android Phones.... and really don't think that long term they can count on customers sticking with them. Because iOS and Android get more secure everyday. And it's clear that BlackBerry can't compete on hardware. A year maybe two, is probable all the BlackBerry hardware division has.

    To be profitable enough to invest in BB10, they would have to sell 10's of millions of phones a year. That isn't even in Chen's wildest dreams, so I doubt there is a "plan" for BB10 if that were to happen. And even then I don't see it as an option unless something changes with the app world first.
    07-28-16 09:41 AM
  25. Denise in Los Angeles's Avatar
    I assume if bb becomes profitable enough to invest in device hardware is when they will release another bb10 device.
    When BlackBerry becomes profitable... you assume that they would waste those profits to make another device with the BB10 OS that never made profits for them in the past? How would that be a good business move for BlackBerry?
    07-28-16 01:07 PM
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