10-05-13 09:01 AM
89 1234
tools
  1. cgk's Avatar
    The main thing really is that WP8 has BB10 solidly beaten for third place - now it's arguable that there is space for a third player... but a fourth? naw...
    10-01-13 07:19 AM
  2. anon1727506's Avatar
    I wonder if instead of a slight jump due to the Q10, if maybe if was the 9930. I know a company that was on the sidelines about switching over to BB10, they waited to see how it would go before making the jump to BES10 and having to start phasing in new BB10 devices.

    They finally had to start upgrading some older (3+ years) devices and they went with the 9930... at least they were BB's.
    10-01-13 08:25 AM
  3. koolrosh's Avatar
    I went through and tracked down the various Kantar reports and put together a summary of the data. If you take your window that you chose of m/e April to m/e August, what you don't see from the data is the typical variance in the values. In other words, from the way you've presented the data it's not clear if you're viewing trends and actual growth/decline or just...nominal variation.

    So I put together another chart which I've posted below and this one shows your data, but also I included the data for 3 m/e June and July as well. Honestly looking at this data, you can see the marketshare jumping around quite a bit more and in fact I think this is representative of noise in the data rather than any really strong trends to be divined.

    Attachment 206761

    It's kind of like picking the data window that most suits your point of view. For example, here is the latest Kantar report itself showing YoY declines for BlackBerry in every market: http://www.kantarworldpanel.com/dwl....wnloads&id=304
    The reason why I did not include the month to month numbers is because they are 3 month averages. The data you presented for the month of June already includes April sales. The 3 Month Average for the Month of August that I showed already includes sales for the Month of June and July.

    But even looking at the data you have presented, you do see a trend higher, there is bound to be variations in any trend and it is never a straight line up.

    Some countries, based on the chart above:

    France: 3.7 > 2.4 > 3.7 > 4.2
    Spain: 0.1 > 0.4 > 0.7 > 0.7
    Australia: 0.3 > 0.3 > 0.3 > 0.5
    United States: 0.7 > 1.1 > 1.2 > 1.8

    These are still very low numbers and very much below my expectations, but at least there is M/M growth in sales in some markets.
    danprown likes this.
    10-01-13 10:13 AM
  4. cgk's Avatar
    Without a breakout and with BBRY themselves saying that the majority of their sales are 0S7, pretty hard to determine what is happening - even then given overall market share, these are pretty dismal things however people want to spin it (M/M is never used expect by the desperate) - figures that will see further carrier pullouts.
    10-01-13 10:15 AM
  5. richardat's Avatar
    Without a breakout and with BBRY themselves saying that the majority of their sales are 0S7, pretty hard to determine what is happening - even then given overall market share, these are pretty dismal things however people want to spin it (M/M is never used expect by the desperate) - figures that will see further carrier pullouts.
    Yes, in addition, the first 3 month interval codehut provided would include time when BB10 wasn't even available.....obviously, it would make sense for those months to be particularly low in sales, as buyers await the new phones....still, all in all the problem is:
    1.there isn't really any clear trend except malaise at extremely low figures
    2.those kind of numbers are absolute failure for bb10 and completely insufficient to sustain the company

    As pessimistic as I have been for a long time now about BB, when I think back a year, even I would never have imagined numbers this low. I always imagined a nice large immediate surge - but then quite likely followed by rapid deterioration. The lack of even sales impact is honestly incredible. Took too long....even most of the faithful had moved on...
    10-01-13 10:51 AM
  6. m1a1mg's Avatar
    He owns a store?

    BlackBerry Bold 9900; Q10; Z10
    He manages IT for a large organization.
    10-01-13 12:45 PM
  7. Aljean Thein's Avatar
    Didn't the earning calls shows at least a 40% sales drop from major big countries?

    Posted via CB10
    10-01-13 03:29 PM
  8. howarmat's Avatar
    Didn't the earning calls shows at least a 40% sales drop from major big countries?

    Posted via CB10
    not exactly. The way they reported the numbers make it seem like sales dropped 40%
    10-01-13 03:36 PM
  9. Dave79's Avatar
    The huge percentage growth (even if true) means nothing when the numbers are very low.

    If you're selling 1 device and the month after you're selling 2 devices it's 100% growth. If you're selling 10,000,000 device one month to have a growth of 100% you need to sell 20,000,000 devices.

    Blackberry is selling a small volume of device therefore that kind of growth has no meaning. The company and its economy of scale was designed for moving much higher volumes. That's why they have to fire so many people to become a niche player and also had 1,000,000,000$ of inventory write down.
    danprown likes this.
    10-01-13 03:50 PM
  10. Thunderbuck's Avatar
    So what does this mean to you? (taken from another thread on here started by zzbsb). This was Prem's quote:

    Globeandmail:
    Fairfax

    He said exactly what I think about Blackberry:

    [B]Its a good company, its a good product. Otherwise nothing could help it, he says. Can it compete in the consumer market with Apple and Samsung and the Android? No, we think thats very tough. But in the enterprise market theyve got huge advantage.






    Posted via CB10
    What I'm curious about is what this means to YOU. They've still said they want the "prosumer", which to me means that they'll concentrate on certain consumer segments rather than trying to going head-to-head with Apple and Samsung. That doesn't mean they'll pull the phones from the consumer market entirely.
    10-01-13 03:58 PM
  11. Thunderbuck's Avatar
    The main thing really is that WP8 has BB10 solidly beaten for third place - now it's arguable that there is space for a third player... but a fourth? naw...
    If a company can find a market and make a profit, who cares what their market ranking is?
    10-01-13 04:00 PM
  12. notfanboy's Avatar
    If a company can find a market and make a profit, who cares what their market ranking is?
    Developers?
    anon1727506 and JeepBB like this.
    10-01-13 04:02 PM
  13. boi2012's Avatar
    If I were to guess, I'd say the little bump in the US comes from the Q10. That's the diehard QWERTY fanbase talking. Still miniscule numbers overall in the US, though. Also, note that while Mexico is (barely) in double figures percentage wise, when you look at the numbers from the same time last year, BB had over 33% of the market there. China -- huh? A zero percent market share. Or I guess it was below 0.05%.
    I don't think the Q10 is selling a lot better than the Z10, as a matter of fact, I doubt retailers ordered many Q10s to stock and that's why you don't see carriers and retailers discounting the Q10 to push stock out, because there probably aren't many in stock.

    If there is a small increase in BB10 sales, it's probably due to the $0 on contract price tag that many retailers initiated a couple of months ago to drive Z10 stock out the door. I saw a Z10 in the wild for the first time a month ago when the price dropped. I'm sure that's the connection--Free giveaway.
    10-01-13 04:09 PM
  14. fin2007's Avatar
    If a company can find a market and make a profit, who cares what their market ranking is?
    In high-tech industry, it is hard to find a company in No.3 place to be profitable, No.4, forget it.
    CPU: NO.1 intel, No.2 AMD (you know amd)
    Network: NO.1 CSCO No.2 JNPR, no 3. 4????
    Search NO.1 Google, who is no. 2 anyway? Bing? I do not think MSFT is profitable on bing
    PC: No.1 Lenova(and it has a profit margin like 1%), others just forget it
    Smartphone: No1/2: Samsung/Apple, No.3(not profit whatever it is), and the market is still not matured yet like other
    10-01-13 04:10 PM
  15. TioPepe78's Avatar
    What would be a sales number in units that could give Blackberry a critical mass to keep the hardware division? 24 million a year? Does someone with the knowledge on the numbers based in the last reports (revenues, margins) can find the brake even point?
    10-01-13 04:40 PM
  16. danprown's Avatar
    I am also afraid the Q10 had no impact. Why -- the WSJ article suggested it is not selling -- and WSJ was pretty accurate recently with some inside info. Second, the Q10 was severly discounted in Canada on contract even going as low as 0. I have never ever seen a flagship Blackberry 0 dollars at a Canadian telco only a couple of month out. Thorsten Heins -- for whatever it is worth -- said BBRY expected Z10 to outsell Q10 3:1. I am afraid if he is correct on that one.

    I don't think the Q10 is selling a lot better than the Z10, as a matter of fact, I doubt retailers ordered many Q10s to stock and that's why you don't see carriers and retailers discounting the Q10 to push stock out, because there probably aren't many in stock.

    If there is a small increase in BB10 sales, it's probably due to the $0 on contract price tag that many retailers initiated a couple of months ago to drive Z10 stock out the door. I saw a Z10 in the wild for the first time a month ago when the price dropped. I'm sure that's the connection--Free giveaway.
    boi2012 likes this.
    10-01-13 05:00 PM
  17. Thunderbuck's Avatar
    Developers?
    It seems to be really easy to pitch to Android devs, at least. Flipboard and Waze aren't on Windows Phone, either...

    If they can sell enough to keep the doors open and the lights on, it's not totally impossible that they can keep Android apps coming in. We'd see the odd native app, but it's not impossible that once they hit a floor they can slowly build market share. That might just be what this Kantar report reflects--that they've hit bottom.
    Geeoff likes this.
    10-01-13 06:28 PM
  18. Thunderbuck's Avatar
    I am also afraid the Q10 had no impact. Why -- the WSJ article suggested it is not selling -- and WSJ was pretty accurate recently with some inside info. Second, the Q10 was severly discounted in Canada on contract even going as low as 0. I have never ever seen a flagship Blackberry 0 dollars at a Canadian telco only a couple of month out. Thorsten Heins -- for whatever it is worth -- said BBRY expected Z10 to outsell Q10 3:1. I am afraid if he is correct on that one.
    What Canadian carriers have you seen the Q10 at $0? Because I haven't seen much of any discounting on the Q10 in Canada.
    10-01-13 06:29 PM
  19. NotGoodIMO's Avatar
    Kantar Worldpanel is out with their latest stats on market share for sales in some major markets around the world. What is surprising the me is that although overall BB sales are very low, they are growing in most markets.

    I chose to look at the numbers since the launch of BB10. First column shows Blackberry's sales share ending April (Feb, Mar, Apr) and the second column looks at sales ending August (June, July, August). Except for Great Britain, every other country shows growth.

    Numbers attached below:

    Attachment 206518
    That does make sense. Blackberry sold 5.7 million devices in the last quarte ending on August 30th. It seems Blackberry only sold 600,000 devices in the quarter before but recognized sales for the devices shipped to the carriers. There is something dubious going on at Blackberry. I think this quarter has been intentionally made to look bad to make the price low enough for a buyout. Heins gets a hefty package if Blackberry is bought out, no matter at what price. Blackberry BOD did an amazing job with that. Who needs enemies when we have these mor*ns runnng this company.
    10-01-13 06:44 PM
  20. 12Danny123's Avatar
    The main thing really is that WP8 has BB10 solidly beaten for third place - now it's arguable that there is space for a third player... but a fourth? naw...
    I'm glad WP is gaining a lot of traction in Europe, Asia etc. But sad BB10 didn't make it after less than a year. But realistically that's BB's fault they didn't react to
    the iPhone fast enough they simplify ignored it and claimed that it wasn't good enough to beat them and look where they are now?? now hang on a thread to
    survive. They should have went MS's way. develop it quickly as possible and release it under baked but later add features. they would have been at a better position if they did this and developed it earlier
    10-01-13 06:47 PM
  21. ray689's Avatar
    What I'm curious about is what this means to YOU. They've still said they want the "prosumer", which to me means that they'll concentrate on certain consumer segments rather than trying to going head-to-head with Apple and Samsung. That doesn't mean they'll pull the phones from the consumer market entirely.
    To me it means enterprise. To me the prosumer is a consumer...consumer may not be a prosumer. And as we see today, many of these prosumers get by just fine with Apple and Android devices.
    Until they define what they mean by prosumer, I think it won't be a widely available consumer product. What that will do is continue to hurt sales. Even if you can order the devices, most average consumers or prosumers for that matter will purchase what they can see, feel and touch which is devices at their local carrier or carrier partner not devices that you have to order. This will also hurt the app ecosystem.
    That's my opinion/definition.

    Posted via CB10
    10-01-13 07:44 PM
  22. RubberChicken76's Avatar
    Previously they reported "devices shipped to stores". However, last week they switched and started reporting "devices actually sold to customers" instead.
    Not exactly.

    They've always reported devices shipped, which is common GAAP practice. However, in every earnings call I can remember, they've also given sell-through numbers as well.

    You are correct though in that this sounds like they've done a financial provision to account for a high level of inventory of BlackBerry 10 devices. It's probably extra weighted because there isn't a service revenue they can count on attached to a sale whereas a BlackBerry 7 device sold also provides service revenue for the life of the product in the customer's hands.

    The write down likely accounts for risk of returns and (more likely) the price cuts they will do to clear up the channel.
    Geeoff likes this.
    10-01-13 07:48 PM
  23. RubberChicken76's Avatar
    I am also afraid the Q10 had no impact. Why -- the WSJ article suggested it is not selling -- and WSJ was pretty accurate recently with some inside info. Second, the Q10 was severly discounted in Canada on contract even going as low as 0.
    which carriers have that? I've actually been looking for one, but the prices are all regular price.

    Just looking now, Telus has it for $199 on contract; Rogers "as low as $79", Bell for $149.

    I've been trying to see if people I know at BlackBerry can get it unlocked for a cheap price like the Z10 was a while ago and no dice.

    I'm inclined to believe it's not selling super well anecdotally ... I actually see a lot more Z10s around than Q10s or Q5s but haven't been lucky enough to see a deal. If you know a link, can you share?
    10-01-13 07:52 PM
  24. Thunderbuck's Avatar
    To me it means enterprise. To me the prosumer is a consumer...consumer may not be a prosumer. And as we see today, many of these prosumers get by just fine with Apple and Android devices.
    Until they define what they mean by prosumer, I think it won't be a widely available consumer product. What that will do is continue to hurt sales. Even if you can order the devices, most average consumers or prosumers for that matter will purchase what they can see, feel and touch which is devices at their local carrier or carrier partner not devices that you have to order. This will also hurt the app ecosystem.
    That's my opinion/definition.

    Posted via CB10
    Actually, I agree with you pretty much completely. What I see happening is that marketing will narrow, and less will be spent to try to promote BB to a mass market. That doesn't mean it won't be available at all anymore (especially if they expand direct sales), and if they can find a way to hold on to a small niche market and keep an effort up to attract Android devs, it might even be enough, who knows?
    10-01-13 08:01 PM
  25. ray689's Avatar
    Actually, I agree with you pretty much completely. What I see happening is that marketing will narrow, and less will be spent to try to promote BB to a mass market. That doesn't mean it won't be available at all anymore (especially if they expand direct sales), and if they can find a way to hold on to a small niche market and keep an effort up to attract Android devs, it might even be enough, who knows?
    Well hope you are right. Because if they can keep attracting app developers and keep their core customers then there is a good chance that the market can grow organically from there....albeit that will be a slow growth but I am okay because that will give them time to exercise the full potential of this wonderful OS.

    Posted via CB10
    Geeoff likes this.
    10-01-13 08:12 PM
89 1234

Similar Threads

  1. Print To Go Re-appears in BlackBerry World
    By chaz95 in forum BlackBerry 10 Apps
    Replies: 3
    Last Post: 01-14-14, 10:11 AM
  2. Replies: 54
    Last Post: 11-04-13, 09:04 AM
  3. Kantar Worldpanel: stats for June-August 2013
    By Akuji_ism in forum News & Rumors
    Replies: 2
    Last Post: 10-01-13, 08:47 AM
  4. GTalk shows random string instead of contact name
    By zehkaiser in forum BlackBerry 10 OS
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: 09-30-13, 01:21 PM
  5. Can you save a draft in emails
    By Warren Garrett in forum BlackBerry Q10
    Replies: 3
    Last Post: 09-30-13, 12:29 PM
LINK TO POST COPIED TO CLIPBOARD