1. smis's Avatar
    I just read a excellent article on Seeking Alpha regarding BlackBerry:
    BlackBerry: A Golden Contrarian Opportunity Is Never Offered Twice - BlackBerry Ltd. (NASDAQ:BBRY) | Seeking Alpha
    rarsen likes this.
    06-12-14 03:11 PM
  2. anon1727506's Avatar
    I believe the pervasive cynicism about BlackBerry has driven the price of the stock so low that it has exaggerated the company's perils and belittled BlackBerry's future prospects.
    Maybe it was six quarters of negative cash flow?
    Maybe it is the 3% marketshare worldwide and the 1% in the US, and expect to continue to fall?
    Maybe it is the shrinking profit margins and increased competition in MDM?
    Maybe it is the total lack of interest and support for their new OS?
    Maybe is was the lack of anyone wanting to pay more the $8 share for BlackBerry when they put themselves on the auction block?
    Maybe it is the lack of BBMx to gain much traction - and has been left out of most conversations of late?
    Maybe it is the fact that many experts now say the patents that BlackBerry holds are worth much less than they were four years ago?


    There are a lot of reasons for the current price of BlackBerry's stock. When a building is on fire and everyone else is running for their life, saying I want to be a contrarian and stay may not be the best philosophy to follow.
    JeepBB likes this.
    06-12-14 03:45 PM
  3. Glenn Biddle's Avatar
    Isn't that the definition of capitulation? When the investors are fed up and beaten up so badly that they can't take it anymore, only then will stock turn around.

    Posted via CB10
    06-12-14 03:55 PM
  4. abwan11's Avatar
    Maybe it was six quarters of negative cash flow?
    Maybe it is the 3% marketshare worldwide and the 1% in the US, and expect to continue to fall?
    Maybe it is the shrinking profit margins and increased competition in MDM?
    Maybe it is the total lack of interest and support for their new OS?
    Maybe is was the lack of anyone wanting to pay more the $8 share for BlackBerry when they put themselves on the auction block?
    Maybe it is the lack of BBMx to gain much traction - and has been left out of most conversations of late?
    Maybe it is the fact that many experts now say the patents that BlackBerry holds are worth much less than they were four years ago?


    There are a lot of reasons for the current price of BlackBerry's stock. When a building is on fire and everyone else is running for their life, saying I want to be a contrarian and stay may not be the best philosophy to follow.
    In 2011, none of the points you made were related to blackberry, and yet the stock went from $70 to $6 that year. Maybe it's you and the pervasive pessimism. Please don't regurgitate everything that has clearly been pointed out.

    Posted via CB10
    06-12-14 09:04 PM
  5. ljfong's Avatar
    It is ok to be contrarian as long as you don't risk losing the shirt on your back if your bet is wrong. You should be prepared to theoretically lose 100% of your investment when you are wrong to be a contrarian with the prospect of 1000% return when you are right.
    06-12-14 09:29 PM
  6. anon1727506's Avatar
    In 2011, none of the points you made were related to blackberry, and yet the stock went from $70 to $6 that year. Maybe it's you and the pervasive pessimism. Please don't regurgitate everything that has clearly been pointed out.

    Posted via CB10
    Sorry but in 2011 the writing was on the wall. Growth was slowing, they had just shipped 2 million fewer devices than the previous quarter.
    In a market that was seeing 80% growth, selling fewer devices was VERY troubling. And their new OS was at least 12 months out in 2011 (at least that was the timeline then). Investors put their money where there is growth. There are no investors in BBRY anymore, there a speculators that are betting on either downward or upward movement.

    It's very hard not to be pessimistic with BlackBerry. I've listened to four CEO's say things would get better, and I've watched them "try" to launch products that would be the next "big thing".... STORM, PlayBook, Z10, BB10, BBMx.... only to see them fall flat on their face each time. Not because of "pervasive cynicism", but because of poor execution, and not being aware of market conditions.

    • STORM was a multitasking iPhone killer without enough memory to run the OS well, let alone its basic Java apps that didn't compare to the other platforms.
    • PlayBook was a much smaller device, with the same price tag as the larger entrenched market leader. And it didn't do the basic tablet functions - email, book reader, browser (did do it, but not well) and there was no content.
    • Z10 - Buggy OS, Battery was under sized, wasn't really premium grade, yet they asked a premium price... and the still didn't have apps
    • BB10 - Buggy OS, even after three years it wasn't ready for launch, very little developer support even after two years of the PlayBook on the market, missing many feature BlackBerry users expected, no low end devices to support it at launch with special pricing, no high end devices to grab attention at launch,
    • BBMx - Buggy, buggy, buggy (several people in Indonesia even pointed to the poor performance of BBMx as the best reason to get a Z3) and all has gotten very quite on the BBMx front. And Channels.... well those are doing so well right.

    I would love for BlackBerry to get something RIGHT for once!

    As for "regurgitate":
    Solomon:
    What has been is what will be, And what has been done will be done again; There is nothing new under the sun.
    dolco likes this.
    06-13-14 10:20 AM
  7. MmmHmm's Avatar
    It is ok to be contrarian as long as you don't risk losing the shirt on your back if your bet is wrong. You should be prepared to theoretically lose 100% of your investment when you are wrong to be a contrarian with the prospect of 1000% return when you are right.
    Absolutely. The problem with BlackBerry as a contrarian bet is that I don't see huge upside, even if the company succeeds. There is no reason to think that a successful saving of BlackBerry will include significant future growth. More like just stopping the bleeding, leaving a much smaller, less significant company. Huge potential for failure without huge potential payoff. My money is invested elsewhere. I see no catalyst on the way that could lead to a drastic turnaround wherein BB actually grows.
    06-13-14 10:38 PM
  8. phuoc's Avatar
    OP, I have been in the market since '74. Please disregard anything from Seeking Alpha.
    dolco likes this.
    06-14-14 12:47 AM

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