02-17-15 05:11 PM
29 12
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  1. kthhrrsn's Avatar
    I'm wondering if anyone else believes CrackBerry Forum activity can be a good predictor of BlackBerry device sales(or at least popularity!). I've come up w/a formula that breaks the threads and posts down into monthly averages by device based on their launch date. According to my data, Passport is the most popular device in terms of CB Forum activity of all BB10 devices (the ones that count, at least)! It's a bit early in the Classic's days having only launched a couple of months ago, but the Passport seems to be twice as popular as the Classic!

    This is just a snapshot based on what's currently on CB.com, and I'm sure the popularity will shift over time. I glanced at legacy BB devices, and at a glance, looks like the Bold 9900 series was the most popular of their more current offerings.

    Can CrackBerry activity be used to estimate BlackBerry device sales?-cb-forums.jpg
    last_attempt and Munx like this.
    02-15-15 09:53 AM
  2. baarn's Avatar
    Doubt that is especially accurate.
    For example, if the classic is being sold as a replacement corporate workhorse for former bbos users then many of those using it may have no buy-in to the phone, it's just another tool provided for work and not something they have chosen. They therefore may not be interesting in socialising with crackberrians.
    You could also say that the volume of posts correlates to the amount of problems people are having. Maybe the classic is so wonderful and reliable that few people are moaning about it.

    If accurate monthly sales figures were available for the last years, it would certainly be an interesting thing.
    02-15-15 10:03 AM
  3. Taigatrommel's Avatar
    I also doubt it's usefull. First not by far every BlackBerry user is actually a CrackBerry user, some haven't even heard about CB. Second not everybody who posts has actually anything to do with the device in question. For example the Z10 was a hot topic because it was actually the first BB10 phone, the first "modern" all-touch BlackBerry phone and people were heavily discussing it and shared their excitement and thoughts prior and after launch.
    Similar the Passport, which is a pretty odd phone by any means, it is also the first BB10 phone which can be somewhat called a high-end device of late 2014. Also there has been quite some speculation going on and people again shared their thoughts.

    The Z30 and Q10 both didn't have those advantages and the same counts for the Classic somehow.

    Posted via CB10
    02-15-15 07:14 PM
  4. howarmat's Avatar
    your method is flawed. The rates for the passport are high right now but will die down over the year and your averages will drop accordingly. You are taking a snapshot at a point in time and then projecting your theory based on that skewed data.
    jpvj, sentimentGX4 and TGR1 like this.
    02-15-15 07:18 PM
  5. johnny_bravo72's Avatar
    Nope.

    Posted from an ME173X
    TGR1 likes this.
    02-15-15 07:19 PM
  6. Glenn Biddle's Avatar
    Actually I'm very surprised that the Passport numbers would be that high. When I got my Z10 two years ago Crackberry was right near the top of the BlackBerry world recommend apps if you go to BlackBerry world today the Crackberry app is no ware to be seen.

    Posted via CB10
    02-15-15 08:22 PM
  7. LoneStarRed's Avatar
    No.

    " I do not think that word means what you think it means. "
    02-15-15 08:22 PM
  8. Bla1ze's Avatar
    It can be used... however it's not accurate really and well, as mentioned your method is rather skewed.
    02-15-15 08:31 PM
  9. LoneStarRed's Avatar
    It can be used... however it's not accurate really and well, as mentioned your method is rather skewed.
    Well then. All we need is the correct variable algorithm coupled with a quotient which is adjustable based on bandwidth coefficients and the squared cosine of parabolic solar flare activity square rooted. Piece of cake.

    " I do not think that word means what you think it means. "
    Shanerredflag likes this.
    02-15-15 10:22 PM
  10. LoneStarRed's Avatar
    Oh. And divide all that by pi.

    " I do not think that word means what you think it means. "
    02-15-15 10:23 PM
  11. webber27's Avatar
    your method is flawed. The rates for the passport are high right now but will die down over the year and your averages will drop accordingly. You are taking a snapshot at a point in time and then projecting your theory based on that skewed data.
    That's a good point. Although it is interesting that the Passport already has more threads and posts in total than the Z30. I would take that as a sign that it was probably more successful... and maybe that's why we haven't seen an all-touch in a while.

    Posted via CB10
    02-15-15 10:39 PM
  12. howarmat's Avatar
    That's a good point. Although it is interesting that the Passport already has more threads and posts in total than the Z30. I would take that as a sign that it was probably more successful... and maybe that's why we haven't seen an all-touch in a while.

    Posted via CB10
    the z30 is an oddball for many reasons. It got no marketing and they released it so close to the z10 launch with minimal spec upgrades that not many people jumped to it. The passport was the first new device released is pretty much a year so there was alot more excitement. BB just screwed the z30 over multiple times. Its a shame really because its not a bad device, just bad timing and slightly misguided in specs

    There was a thread back in January that had some devs post their breakdown of sales and from that data I would guess there are 2-2.5 times as many z30s as there are passports out there. Something like 50% of all bb10 devices are probably z10s.
    02-15-15 10:59 PM
  13. JeepBB's Avatar
    Oh. And divide all that by pi.
    Mmmmmmm..... Pie...

    Alternatively, a journo at the ER could ask Chen to break down the headline quarterly sales numbers.

    Chen might not answer, but it's more reliable than basing an estimate on the uncertainties of solar flare activity.
    02-16-15 05:13 AM
  14. Bla1ze's Avatar
    Well then. All we need is the correct variable algorithm coupled with a quotient which is adjustable based on bandwidth coefficients and the squared cosine of parabolic solar flare activity square rooted. Piece of cake.

    " I do not think that word means what you think it means. "
    Can CrackBerry activity be used to estimate BlackBerry device sales?-neil-degrasse-tyson.jpg
    02-16-15 08:14 AM
  15. kthhrrsn's Avatar
    I'm wondering if anyone else believes CrackBerry Forum activity can be a good predictor of BlackBerry device sales(or at least popularity!). I've come up w/a formula that breaks the threads and posts down into monthly averages by device based on their launch date. According to my data, Passport is the most popular device in terms of CB Forum activity of all BB10 devices (the ones that count, at least)! It's a bit early in the Classic's days having only launched a couple of months ago, but the Passport seems to be twice as popular as the Classic!

    This is just a snapshot based on what's currently on CB.com, and I'm sure the popularity will shift over time. I glanced at legacy BB devices, and at a glance, looks like the Bold 9900 series was the most popular of their more current offerings.

    Click image for larger version. 

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    Thanks everyone for the thoughts. I don't think this can be used to predict sales (despite my title), but I do think its an indication of the popularity of each device. Clearly, the top 3 BB10 devices to be released so far are the Z10, Passport, & Classic. I glanced at the Q5 and Z3 #'s and they're both pretty pathtic.

    It makes sense to me that the Z10 was the most popular as it was the 1st BB10 device, and there was pent up demand to move beyond BBOS for many. It received a ton of attention (AT&T sold it) and press (though mostly negativ), but Heinz made a few gazillion too many of them unfortunately.

    The Passport and Classic were both very highly anticipated devices, for different reasons, but it does seem to make sense.

    I'm well aware of the fact that most BlackBerry users don't use CrackBerry (I'm married to a semi-reluctant BB user). I know that this is a fan site, but if the portion of overall BB users that also uses CB remains reasonably consistent (say that 2% of users of each device become "fans"), then these numbers will give a directional indication of how a particular device is doing, broadly speaking.

    Anyway, I had a few minutes and thought I'd share my thoughts. The "exceeding expectations" feedback that we've heard from John Chen with regards to the Passport seems to be supported here. Just sayin!
    02-16-15 12:01 PM
  16. anon1727506's Avatar
    the z30 is an oddball for many reasons. It got no marketing and they released it so close to the z10 launch with minimal spec upgrades that not many people jumped to it. The passport was the first new device released is pretty much a year so there was alot more excitement. BB just screwed the z30 over multiple times. Its a shame really because its not a bad device, just bad timing and slightly misguided in specs

    There was a thread back in January that had some devs post their breakdown of sales and from that data I would guess there are 2-2.5 times as many z30s as there are passports out there. Something like 50% of all bb10 devices are probably z10s.
    Yeah if Blaze wanted to share the breakdown on the CrackBerry App... that might be a little more telling...

    But still CrackBerry is a small portion of the overall BlackBerry userbase.... but I do feel that proportionally there maybe more BB10 users here than there were BBOS users. As you really need more help getting the most out of BB10 than you did BBOS.... Sideloading, Leaks, SNAP, Google Services.... a stock BB10 device would be pretty "boring".
    02-16-15 12:38 PM
  17. Q10Bold's Avatar
    the z30 is an oddball for many reasons. It got no marketing and they released it so close to the z10 launch with minimal spec upgrades that not many people jumped to it. The passport was the first new device released is pretty much a year so there was alot more excitement. BB just screwed the z30 over multiple times. Its a shame really because its not a bad device, just bad timing and slightly misguided in specs

    There was a thread back in January that had some devs post their breakdown of sales and from that data I would guess there are 2-2.5 times as many z30s as there are passports out there. Something like 50% of all bb10 devices are probably z10s.
    I think the Z30 is the only one device with 'big' sales but without big issues (Q10- double type, Classic - light bleed, Passport- screen lift etc..)
    Thats why there are not a lot of posts


    yeahh I hope so
    02-16-15 01:07 PM
  18. MobileMadness002's Avatar
    Oh. And divide all that by pi.

    " I do not think that word means what you think it means. "
    Lemon pi.
    Umaima_B_Dia likes this.
    02-16-15 01:52 PM
  19. howarmat's Avatar
    I think the Z30 is the only one device with 'big' sales but without big issues (Q10- double type, Classic - light bleed, Passport- screen lift etc..)
    Thats why there are not a lot of posts


    yeahh I hope so
    i do agree its a pretty solid device and i really dont hear any complaints, hardware or otherwise. Its entire existence fell thru the cracks really.
    Q10Bold likes this.
    02-16-15 04:21 PM
  20. lnichols's Avatar
    i do agree its a pretty solid device and i really dont hear any complaints, hardware or otherwise. Its entire existence fell thru the cracks really.
    Yeah it is really sad because I too said I would never upgrade from Z10 because of the specs increase not justifying it. But when it went to $225, had to buy it because I wasn't sure if BlackBerry would make another all touch. Boy is the Z30 far superior to the Z10 in every way. The Z30 should have been the launch all touch device for the US, and with 10.2. BlackBerry 10 might actually have had a chance in the US then. Z10 beta OS at launch, horrible battery life and horrible Android performance didn't do anything positive to BlackBerry's image.

    Posted via CB10
    02-16-15 05:04 PM
  21. FrankUnderwood's Avatar
    Need to take into consideration the trolls on CB and then the general spit disturbers.

    Posted via CB10 on the President Underwood version of the BlackBerry Classic
    02-16-15 05:17 PM
  22. Jtaylor1986's Avatar
    Unless you had some idea about the % of BlackBerry users that were on CrackBerry you couldn't even wager a guess
    TGR1 likes this.
    02-16-15 05:21 PM
  23. ATI nsider's Avatar
    your method is flawed. The rates for the passport are high right now but will die down over the year and your averages will drop accordingly. You are taking a snapshot at a point in time and then projecting your theory based on that skewed data.
    Your reasoning is flawed. In one year the Passport will drop in price, as does every other device. It will continue to sell, perhaps not as strong, but will still sell well.
    02-16-15 10:46 PM
  24. lnichols's Avatar
    Your reasoning is flawed. In one year the Passport will drop in price, as does every other device. It will continue to sell, perhaps not as strong, but will still sell well.
    We don't know if it is having strong sales outside of the initial release period. Given that they have been discounting it fairly frequently now, and it is in stock, that would indicate that sales are not stellar IMHO.

    Posted via CB10
    02-16-15 11:57 PM
  25. last_attempt's Avatar
    OP, I think there's something to it. I'm sure I remember Kevin saying he could estimate device popularity by traffic patterns to the website and accessories sold etc, on a podcast a while back.
    02-17-15 02:36 AM
29 12

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