01-06-15 06:53 PM
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  1. early2bed's Avatar
    Additionally, as Chen has stated, there is value in them providing hardware as the final link in the security chain for the highly regulated industries.
    He apparently doesn't think that being the hardware maker is essential to delivering the chain. Otherwise, he wouldn't be working with Boeing on the Blackphone.
    12-24-14 07:14 PM
  2. dusdal's Avatar
    He apparently doesn't think that being the hardware maker is essential to delivering the chain. Otherwise, he wouldn't be working with Boeing on the Blackphone.
    I'm not sure that logic necessarily works. He can think it is necessary while also hedging his bet by being involved in what would otherwise be a competing offering.

    Posted via CB10
    12-24-14 07:25 PM
  3. AhmadCentral's Avatar
    So far Blackberry have sold 5.7m units this fiscal year with 3.82m (or ~67%) being Blackberry 10 devices. Sell in for new BB7 devices is going to keep decreasing every quarter and eventually reach 0 probably towards the end of the next fiscal year.

    There is currently one month to go in the fiscal year and my prediction model shows that we'll see over 5 million Blackberry 10 devices sold in and over 7 million cumulative Blackberry 7 and 10 devices sold in.

    Not near the 10 million, and certainly not great for Blackberry 10 as they only sold through 5 million devices in the last fiscal year (launch year) so it shows that Blackberry 10 is not growing in a market that is growing 25% YOY. If Blackberry do only sell 5 million BB10 devices then that gives BB10 a market share of less than 0.04% globally.

    The consumer market is lost to Blackberry. And it looks like the enterprise hardware market will be lost to Blackberry. The active number of users has fallen off a cliff recently so don't expect service revenue to increase. All that remains for Blackberry is MDM and additional services but even that market isn't showing huge growth for Blackberry.

    It'll be interesting to see what happens.
    anon1727506 likes this.
    12-24-14 07:26 PM
  4. dusdal's Avatar

    And it looks like the enterprise hardware market will be lost to Blackberry.
    You have data for this?

    Posted via CB10
    12-24-14 08:00 PM
  5. LuvULongTime's Avatar
    So far Blackberry have sold 5.7m units this fiscal year with 3.82m (or ~67%) being Blackberry 10 devices. Sell in for new BB7 devices is going to keep decreasing every quarter and eventually reach 0 probably towards the end of the next fiscal year.

    There is currently one month to go in the fiscal year and my prediction model shows that we'll see over 5 million Blackberry 10 devices sold in and over 7 million cumulative Blackberry 7 and 10 devices sold in.

    Not near the 10 million, and certainly not great for Blackberry 10 as they only sold through 5 million devices in the last fiscal year (launch year) so it shows that Blackberry 10 is not growing in a market that is growing 25% YOY. If Blackberry do only sell 5 million BB10 devices then that gives BB10 a market share of less than 0.04% globally.

    The consumer market is lost to Blackberry. And it looks like the enterprise hardware market will be lost to Blackberry. The active number of users has fallen off a cliff recently so don't expect service revenue to increase. All that remains for Blackberry is MDM and additional services but even that market isn't showing huge growth for Blackberry.

    It'll be interesting to see what happens.
    And again, I ask you, how can we expect HW sales to be any better than reported considering there has been no new HW in the last year other than a limited run of passports? Is the consumer market lost to Blackberry, or has Blackberry not put in the requisite amount of work to be successful in the consumer market?
    12-24-14 08:30 PM
  6. birdman_38's Avatar
    Is the consumer market lost to Blackberry, or has Blackberry not put in the requisite amount of work to be successful in the consumer market?
    Both.
    12-25-14 12:46 AM
  7. early2bed's Avatar
    By "putting in work" one has to mean spending money. After all, John Chen can't just tell his employees that they need to all work 30% more to get back the consumer market. He must allocate funds. Just the marketing alone could easily cost $100M per quarter which is a pretty average budget for a consumer hardware campaign - that's before you develop and manufacture any products. Remember that the stock is being held back because Blackberry came up something like $150 million short on revenue.

    Even if you do spend the money to develop the platform, design the product, manufacture, and then do the big expensive marketing campaign, don't plan on making any profit on the project. There's a company called Xiaomi that just reached a $45 billion valuation - 9 times bigger than Blackberry - just by selling smartphones pretty much at cost. It's like deciding that you're going to start selling consumer mass market books online without considering Amazon.

    The market isn't waiting around for Blackberry to become financially stable and develop its consumer smartphones. That market has already been lost.
    12-25-14 08:55 AM
  8. AhmadCentral's Avatar
    And again, I ask you, how can we expect HW sales to be any better than reported considering there has been no new HW in the last year other than a limited run of passports? Is the consumer market lost to Blackberry, or has Blackberry not put in the requisite amount of work to be successful in the consumer market?
    Both.

    Even If Blackberry were launching new hardware it doesn't mean that they would suddenly start selling loads more.
    We just have to look at last years sales figures to confirm that.

    The main issue at the moment is that BB7 shipments are continually decreasing yet BB10 shipments are decreasing / not growing as well.

    At this point it's very hard to see Blackberry ever having the type of market share in the consumer space that they used to have. The smartphone market will grow again next year and even if Blackberry manage to ship the same amount of units then they'll still have lost market share. What is likely to happen is BB7 shipments will decline again and BB10 shipments won't fill the void meaning that total shipments will decrease next year as well.

    Something needs to be done if Blackberry want to stay in the hardware market like they said they want to. Consumer is gone, business/enterprise isn't exactly buying blackberrys by the boat load at the moment thanks to BYOD and business's now looking at and have already bought into other options such as iOS, Windows Phone and Android. At my old job for example, they replaced all the Blackberry's with Lumia devices.
    12-25-14 10:49 AM
  9. crackberry_geek's Avatar
    Both.

    Even If Blackberry were launching new hardware it doesn't mean that they would suddenly start selling loads more.
    We just have to look at last years sales figures to confirm that.
    The reason for such dismal sales figures is primarily because BBRY simply refuses to advertise.

    They've had great BB10 products for almost 3 years now... and still almost nobody knows.

    It's pretty sad that a full three months after release the first reaction a Passport owner usually gets in public is "what is that?"

    Until BlackBerry figure out this simple fact... their ship will continue sinking.



    Posted via CB10
    12-25-14 11:14 AM
  10. LuvULongTime's Avatar
    Both.
    I'd say it is the latter more than the former. They lost the consumer market due to their own stupidity, and they continue to let it slip away with no new products and **** poor marketing of any existing products.

    By "putting in work" one has to mean spending money. After all, John Chen can't just tell his employees that they need to all work 30% more to get back the consumer market. He must allocate funds. Just the marketing alone could easily cost $100M per quarter which is a pretty average budget for a consumer hardware campaign - that's before you develop and manufacture any products. Remember that the stock is being held back because Blackberry came up something like $150 million short on revenue.

    Even if you do spend the money to develop the platform, design the product, manufacture, and then do the big expensive marketing campaign, don't plan on making any profit on the project. There's a company called Xiaomi that just reached a $45 billion valuation - 9 times bigger than Blackberry - just by selling smartphones pretty much at cost. It's like deciding that you're going to start selling consumer mass market books online without considering Amazon.

    The market isn't waiting around for Blackberry to become financially stable and develop its consumer smartphones. That market has already been lost.
    Yes, no disagreement, they need to spend money. We can debate how much, but they can't go nuts. With that said, they need some presence.

    In terms of Xiaomi, their business model is not sustainable long term. Their valuation may be 45 billion, but let's see how long the party lasts. I think it will turn out no different for them than it did for many other tech/dot com's that went bust.

    Both.

    Even If Blackberry were launching new hardware it doesn't mean that they would suddenly start selling loads more.
    We just have to look at last years sales figures to confirm that.

    The main issue at the moment is that BB7 shipments are continually decreasing yet BB10 shipments are decreasing / not growing as well.

    At this point it's very hard to see Blackberry ever having the type of market share in the consumer space that they used to have. The smartphone market will grow again next year and even if Blackberry manage to ship the same amount of units then they'll still have lost market share. What is likely to happen is BB7 shipments will decline again and BB10 shipments won't fill the void meaning that total shipments will decrease next year as well.

    Something needs to be done if Blackberry want to stay in the hardware market like they said they want to. Consumer is gone, business/enterprise isn't exactly buying blackberrys by the boat load at the moment thanks to BYOD and business's now looking at and have already bought into other options such as iOS, Windows Phone and Android. At my old job for example, they replaced all the Blackberry's with Lumia devices.
    No disagreement, new BB10 phones won't necessarily mean an increase in sales. But they have to try. And when I say try, I mean over spec, price competitively, and add differentiating features (dual SIM, dual number capability, slider phone, etc). The Z10 and Z30 were over priced and under spec'd upon release. The Q10 just alienated PKB users due to no belt. No one outside of die hard BB'ers looked at any of those phones. I hear people say that the previous Z phones were commercial failures because they were 'me too' iPhones. I disagree, they weren't even 'me too'. Not even close. They need to do what I indicated above to try and grab peoples attention. Not everyone is married to their iPhone. They just need a convincing reason to try something new. Under spec'd and over priced HW is not going to do it.
    Last edited by LuvULongTime; 12-25-14 at 01:25 PM. Reason: Spelling
    12-25-14 11:43 AM
  11. Hendri Hendri's Avatar
    BlackBerry will have a new head to head competition with Apple-IBM new business. If these colaboration success, with IBM strong market share and with apple huge selling devices, BlackBerry will have a hard time in the future. Not to mentioned their existing competitor such as exchange server, etc.



    Posted via CB10
    12-25-14 12:35 PM
  12. crackberry_geek's Avatar
    BlackBerry will have a new head to head competition with Apple-IBM new business. If these colaboration success, with IBM strong market share and with apple huge selling devices, BlackBerry will have a hard time in the future. Not to mentioned their existing competitor such as exchange server, etc.



    Posted via CB10
    Exactly!

    If BlackBerry thinks they have a lock on Enterprise software... and expect that to save the company... they might be sorely mistaken.

    Posted via CB10
    12-25-14 02:08 PM
  13. asherN's Avatar
    Exactly!

    If BlackBerry thinks they have a lock on Enterprise software... and expect that to save the company... they might be sorely mistaken.

    Posted via CB10
    And they are again sending mixed signals with BES. First is the name, if you want into the MDM market at large, drop the Blackberry name. Second is the pricing. First, it's the most expensive. Second, the price difference if you want to use non-BB devices. It's huge and it sends a signal that the software is designed for BB devices, but there's an add-on for iOS and Android.
    12-26-14 10:22 AM
  14. trwallace's Avatar
    They didn't book sales revenue on many of the phones sold in the third quarter. Ez pass licenses won't convert to revenue until 2015 when subscription services begin. If you know anything about IT managers at large corporations they don't switch to any MMS unless they are going to be there long term. Which means revenues for the bes systems will convert to much larger revenue very soon. Yes they are losing phone revenues from the carriers but that was a given and just a matter of time anyway. Revenue money will build steadily through the year so by financial year 2016 their reliance on phone sales will be minimal. Can they get back in the phone sales game? That's really the big question. Do they actually want to? That's more the question.

    Posted via the CrackBerry App for Android
    12-29-14 09:45 AM
  15. linuxman1's Avatar
    Carries are the problem, they tired each time to talk me out of getting a BlackBerry passport, possibly due to the fact they don't make any commission.

    I went into a vodafone store and some staff had no idea what BlackBerry even was, one girl though it was software lol

    I do feel for BlackBerry but I change phone allot I've gone from a z10 to an iPhone and I went straight back to the passport

    Posted via CB10
    12-29-14 12:02 PM
  16. TGR1's Avatar
    BlackBerry will have a new head to head competition with Apple-IBM new business. If these colaboration success, with IBM strong market share and with apple huge selling devices, BlackBerry will have a hard time in the future. Not to mentioned their existing competitor such as exchange server, etc.
    It will be the apps situation yet again. The IBM/Apple apps appear very nicely designed for specific corporate users. The much-maligned "tools not toys" tagline was actually spot on but BBRY has been completely incapable of implementing such tools, at a *user* level, at all.
    12-29-14 12:09 PM
  17. Soulstream's Avatar
    I'd say it is the latter more than the former. They lost the consumer market due to their own stupidity, and they continue to let it slip away with no new products and **** poor marketing of any existing products.



    Yes, no disagreement, they need to spend money. We can debate how much, but they can't go nuts. With that said, they need some presence.

    In terms of Xiaomi, their business model is not sustainable long term. Their valuation may be 45 billion, but let's see how long the party lasts. I think it will turn out no different for them than it did for many other tech/dot com's that went bust.



    No disagreement, new BB10 phones won't necessarily mean an increase in sales. But they have to try. And when I say try, I mean over spec, price competitively, and add differentiating features (dual SIM, dual number capability, slider phone, etc). The Z10 and Z30 were over priced and under spec'd upon release. The Q10 just alienated PKB users due to no belt. No one outside of die hard BB'ers looked at any of those phones. I hear people say that the previous Z phones were commercial failures because they were 'me too' iPhones. I disagree, they weren't even 'me too'. Not even close. They need to do what I indicated above to try and grab peoples attention. Not everyone is married to their iPhone. They just need a convincing reason to try something new. Under spec'd and over priced HW is not going to do it.
    BB can't overspec/under-price too much because they also do software research/development.

    That is why Android caught on so much. The manufacturers don't have to spend much money on the OS/software part, Android is pretty much ready to go and comes with "all the apps in the world". Manufacturers can just produce the hardware and sell for low margins because they don't have to subsidize the software part (aka pay the development of the OS).

    Android has warped the marked in a good way for cosumers, but in a bad way for BB. You can get mid range Android smartphones (Moto G as the best example) that run very well for the cost. Even Samsung has problems with smartphone profits because real profits come from high-end hardware which is not actually selling that well anymore.

    Only Apple seems to still be unaffected by this (so far).
    LuvULongTime likes this.
    12-29-14 12:09 PM
  18. crackberry_geek's Avatar
    Carries are the problem, they tired each time to talk me out of getting a BlackBerry passport, possibly due to the fact they don't make any commission.

    I went into a vodafone store and some staff had no idea what BlackBerry even was, one girl though it was software lol

    I do feel for BlackBerry but I change phone allot I've gone from a z10 to an iPhone and I went straight back to the passport

    Posted via CB10
    No, carriers are NOT the problem!

    It is BlackBerry's job to invest in making people want their product... not the carriers.

    At one point or another BlackBerry has dissed every US carrier out there. It is BlackBerry's job to rebuild those relationships and make people aware of their products.

    Posted via CB10
    12-29-14 12:20 PM
  19. Glenn Biddle's Avatar
    I was watching Discovery (or one of those Nature shows).... Started out about a Sperm Whale and her calf and then showed a pack of killer whales. It was a sad thing to sit there and watch... kept hoping that either the Sperm Whales would dive down or something. But the Killer Whales finally wore the calf down and killed it after 12 hours or so.

    Had to ask myself why did I watch that....
    So do you consider yourself one of the killer whales. The killer whales may have killed that calf but there are still Sperm Whales in the world.

    Posted via CB10
    12-29-14 01:01 PM
  20. anon1727506's Avatar
    So do you consider yourself one of the killer whales. The killer whales may have killed that calf but there are still Sperm Whales in the world.

    Posted via CB10
    Yep there are other smartphone OEMs in the world.... it's watching the death of this one particular brand that is painful to watch.

    I've been watching and supporting BlackBerry for a while... back then a number of people here said that Java based BBOS was a dead end and needed to be replaced (not sure if you can search back to 2007/2008). But they were ridiculed.... sad that there were those within the community that asked for change, years before management taught it was needed. Imagine where we would be if BB10 had gone into development back in 2007?

    I had hoped that BB10 would return BlackBerry to at least a spot in the race... which is why I bought a Z10. But it's apparent to anyone that looks at all the indicators that BB10 isn't going anywhere.
    12-29-14 02:50 PM
  21. belfastdispatcher's Avatar
    Yep there are other smartphone OEMs in the world.... it's watching the death of this one particular brand that is painful to watch.

    I've been watching and supporting BlackBerry for a while... back then a number of people here said that Java based BBOS was a dead end and needed to be replaced (not sure if you can search back to 2007/2008). But they were ridiculed.... sad that there were those within the community that asked for change, years before management taught it was needed. Imagine where we would be if BB10 had gone into development back in 2007?

    I had hoped that BB10 would return BlackBerry to at least a spot in the race... which is why I bought a Z10. But it's apparent to anyone that looks at all the indicators that BB10 isn't going anywhere.
    Considering BB10 needs dual core and minimum of 2gb of ram to run I would say it would've been DOA in 2007.
    12-29-14 02:57 PM
  22. LuvULongTime's Avatar
    Yep there are other smartphone OEMs in the world.... it's watching the death of this one particular brand that is painful to watch.

    I've been watching and supporting BlackBerry for a while... back then a number of people here said that Java based BBOS was a dead end and needed to be replaced (not sure if you can search back to 2007/2008). But they were ridiculed.... sad that there were those within the community that asked for change, years before management taught it was needed. Imagine where we would be if BB10 had gone into development back in 2007?

    I had hoped that BB10 would return BlackBerry to at least a spot in the race... which is why I bought a Z10. But it's apparent to anyone that looks at all the indicators that BB10 isn't going anywhere.
    That simply isn't true. For all the public bashing Mike and Jim did of the iPhone, they realized as soon as it was released that BBOS was not going to cut it. But building a new OS, or finding an acquisition target are both easier said then done. It is too bad they did not identify QNX sooner than 2010, but to say they were oblivious is false. The Globe and Mail article from last year chronicling the rise and fall of the company discussed this, and many other things in depth.
    12-29-14 03:06 PM
  23. linuxman1's Avatar
    Why does BlackBerry not producing seriously good cheap handsets it's how Nokia increased user base by offering good affordable handsets to the market...

    Just focusing on enterprise customers is not enough in my opinion.

    Posted via CB10
    01-01-15 05:00 AM
  24. AhmadCentral's Avatar
    Why does BlackBerry not producing seriously good cheap handsets it's how Nokia increased user base by offering good affordable handsets to the market...

    Just focusing on enterprise customers is not enough in my opinion.

    Posted via CB10
    How do you suppose they produce a cheap handset that has very very high likelihood of making a loss?
    01-01-15 11:04 AM
  25. LuvULongTime's Avatar
    How do you suppose they produce a cheap handset that has very very high likelihood of making a loss?
    I'd build a next gen Z10, maybe call it the Z11 and keep the internals exactly the same except add a bigger battery. Z10's at the very end were being sold in Canada for $149 off contract. I'm not sure if they could feasibly build a Z11 and sell it for $149 off contract. But if it is doable then they should seriously look at it. Same goes for the Z30. Make a Z31. Keep the internals the same, but bump up the screen res and sell it for $199 off contract. The components in those phones are fairly old now and shouldn't cost an arm and a leg.
    01-01-15 11:17 AM
162 ... 4567

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