01-06-15 06:53 PM
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  1. mnc76's Avatar
    From the earnings call, it sounds like BlackBerry is only reporting shipped devices. Chen said, specifically, that Passport sales this past quarter appear low because of production delays. He also consistently said how happy he was of Passport sales and how they exceeded their own expectations.

    This would mean that the Passport (with its production delays) would not register much for this quarter.

    It will be interesting to see if BlackBerry 's device sale numbers "spike" next quarter when their reported figures include the backlog of Passports that were paid for last quarter, but were only (finally) shipped this quarter.

    If this is true, it's going to be a bug surprise to the market.

    However: I'm not sure what the rules are on what they have to report. Maybe someone with more biz savvy can speak to this possibility I've outlined above (i.e.: delayed production of Passport causing many Passport sales to go unreported last quarter)?

    Posted from my awesome White Z30
    12-21-14 09:31 AM
  2. AhmadCentral's Avatar
    Blackberry will recognise revenue when a device has been sold to a retailer.

    The issue at the moment is that channel inventory is currently very large, and this means that a lot of sell through to end users this quarter is from devices that were shipped in the previous quarters. Over 10 million devices were sold through to end users in the past 12 months yet only 7 million units were sold in to retailers in the past 12 months.

    What this says is that demand for new stock is weak. Whilst It's impossible to know how many units are sitting on store shelves or in warehouses, I can say with some certainty that it's quite a lot. This is why I fully expect next quarter sales to be lower than the 2 million sold in this quarter as there is still plenty of stock in the channel and retailers aren't going to be ordering more until that old stock is gone. Only new product launches (such as the Classic) will make an impact but I'm not sure how much of an impact just one new product launch will make.

    But lets wait and see. I can always be wrong.
    Last edited by AhmadCentral; 12-21-14 at 11:25 AM.
    boi2012 likes this.
    12-21-14 11:04 AM
  3. mnc76's Avatar
    Blackberry will recognise revenue when a device has been sold to a retailer.

    The issue at the moment is that channel inventory is currently very large, and this means that a lot of sell through to end users this quarter is from devices that were shipped in the previous quarters. Over 10 million devices were sold through to end users in the past 12 months yet only 7 million units were sold in to retailers in the past 12 months.

    What this says is that demand for new stock is weak. Whilst It's impossible to know how many units are sitting on store shelves or in warehouses, I can say with some certainty that it's quite a lot. This is why I fully expect next quarter sales to be lower than the 2 million sold in this quarter as there is still plenty of stock in the channel and retailers aren't going to be ordering more until that old stock is gone. Only new product launches (such as the Classic) will make an impact but I'm not sure how much of an impact just one new product launch will make.

    But lets wait and see. I can always be wrong.
    How do they recognise devices sold through shopblackberry.com? From what I understand, the Passport sold almost entirely (if not entirely) via online last quarter, not via brick and mortar retailers.

    Posted from my awesome White Z30
    12-21-14 11:56 AM
  4. LuvULongTime's Avatar
    Yeah... interesting to know how many of those devices were Passports.

    Agree that hardware sales are much lower than should have been expected. I'd been hoping for at least 2.5m.

    Posted via CB10
    I don't understand this sentiment. Why should HW sales have been higher? Other than a limited run of Passports, what new phone has Blackberry produced since the Z30 (that was launched when the company put itself up for sale)? No new HW + no marketing + lacklustre reviews of previous HW (Z10+Q10) + winding down of BBOS = HW increase?

    I would respectfully disagree. The fact they sold 1.9 million devices considering all of the above is actually quite impressive. They were only 600k units shy of their quarterly 2.5 million target (to hit 10m for the year).

    BB needs a solid roadmap year over year. For example, every March they should unveil one or two touch devices, and every September one or two PKB devices. Maybe one standard and one risky device of each. Once we see a stable supply of devices hit the market in an organized a timely fashion with solid marketing behind it, then we can criticize them for lacklustre HW sales.
    12-21-14 12:21 PM
  5. LuvULongTime's Avatar
    I keep hearing "enterprise all the way" or the have a vision....

    The Z3 was Chen's.... it was not an enterprise device.
    The Passport was Chen's....
    seen no real indication it has been marketed or is being sold as an enterprise device.
    BBM/Channels is not an enterprise product.

    The focus on hardware today is that right now that is 50% of their business... and if you allow for the fact that many of the Services Licenses that they do sell, would go away without the hardware to go with it. Without hardware, the current company wouldn't be bringing in more that a few hundred million in revenues.

    Now there is a lot of TALK about the future... of the company being more about software and services. But that is more a result of where they are heading, not where they want to be heading.

    QNX, BES, IoT, BBM, Channels, Secure Networks... there is potential there, but they are a long way from turning those into the kind of revenues that even now hardware is bring in. And there are many other companies work on the same things... some with much more backing and a bigger head start. I'm not sure where BlackBerry is headed... at this point I don't see hardware in their future as you can only milk your fanbase for so long. I think if next ER we find out that the Passport and Classic did nothing to stop the decline in hardware sales, and if Service Revenues don't start showing a marked increase... you will find BlackBerry will become a very affordable company for someone to buy and then break up.

    If they do sell a million Passports and maybe four million Classics and Service Revenues see a major jump... then all could go well for Chen and BlackBerry.
    Neither the Z3 or Passport were Chen's devices. Chen was so fond of the Z3 that he killed the LTE variant for the NA market. And he was so optimistic about the Passport that he only ordered 200k units initially.

    Why would service revenues ever see a major jump? I assume you are referring to the $3-$5/month BB gets from carriers? This is only applicable to legacy devices. These devices are winding down. BB could sell 10 million Classics in one quarter and it would not have any impact on service revenue.
    12-21-14 12:26 PM
  6. AhmadCentral's Avatar
    How do they recognise devices sold through shopblackberry.com? From what I understand, the Passport sold almost entirely (if not entirely) via online last quarter, not via brick and mortar retailers.

    Posted from my awesome White Z30
    Hi MNC, I'll try and keep this short but with all the facts.

    Blackberry recognise hardware revenue when a device is sold to a retailer or carrier. More specifically when the following 4 conditions are met.

    • When persuasive evidence of an arrangement exists
    • The product has been delivered to a customer
    • The sales price is fixed or determinable
    • Collection is reasonably assured


    In this case, the "customer" refers to a retailer or a carrier or other business.

    If the above 4 points are not met then Blackberry will only recognise revenue when a device has been sold through to an end user. In this case they will only count a sale when the device is sold through to the end user which is based upon internally generated reporting indicating when the devices are activated on the Company’s relay infrastructure.

    I hope this helps.
    12-21-14 12:27 PM
  7. AhmadCentral's Avatar
    I would respectfully disagree. The fact they sold 1.9 million devices considering all of the above is actually quite impressive. They were only 600k units shy of their quarterly 2.5 million target (to hit 10m for the year).
    You're looking at the wrong number. Blackberry only recognised revenue on 7 million devices in the past 12 months which means they are currently 3 million shy of 10 million based on the past 12 months.

    If you you consider the fiscal year then they are currently 4.3m units below 10m with 3 months left to go.
    12-21-14 12:30 PM
  8. LuvULongTime's Avatar
    Blackberry will recognise revenue when a device has been sold to a retailer.

    The issue at the moment is that channel inventory is currently very large, and this means that a lot of sell through to end users this quarter is from devices that were shipped in the previous quarters. Over 10 million devices were sold through to end users in the past 12 months yet only 7 million units were sold in to retailers in the past 12 months.

    What this says is that demand for new stock is weak. Whilst It's impossible to know how many units are sitting on store shelves or in warehouses, I can say with some certainty that it's quite a lot. This is why I fully expect next quarter sales to be lower than the 2 million sold in this quarter as there is still plenty of stock in the channel and retailers aren't going to be ordering more until that old stock is gone. Only new product launches (such as the Classic) will make an impact but I'm not sure how much of an impact just one new product launch will make.

    But lets wait and see. I can always be wrong.
    How can you say with certainty that it is quite a lot?

    Didn't Chen say that he has gotten rid of most of his old inventory, over 90+% is gone?

    That aside, I have a hard time believing that there is tonnes of product sitting in retail channels. Try finding a Z30, Z10, Q10, Q5, etc, anywhere. Canadian carrier stores are probably the only place in the world you will be able to find a Z30, with very limited stock of the others, if any at all.
    12-21-14 12:33 PM
  9. LuvULongTime's Avatar
    You're looking at the wrong number. Blackberry only recognised revenue on 7 million devices in the past 12 months which means they are currently 3 million shy of 10 million based on the past 12 months.

    If you you consider the fiscal year then they are currently 4.3m units below 10m with 3 months left to go.
    I may have looked at the incorrect number, but stand by my original argument. --> Other than a limited run of Passports, what new phone has Blackberry produced since the Z30 (that was launched when the company put itself up for sale)? No new HW + no marketing + lacklustre reviews of previous HW (Z10+Q10) + winding down of BBOS = HW increase?

    They may be further from the 10m, but its hard to sell phones when you aren't really making anything new. And the phones you did make (Passport aside), were not spec competitive with other phone manufacturers, yet priced as high.
    12-21-14 12:36 PM
  10. mnc76's Avatar
    Hi MNC, I'll try and keep this short but with all the facts.

    Blackberry recognise hardware revenue when a device is sold to a retailer or carrier. More specifically when the following 4 conditions are met.

    • When persuasive evidence of an arrangement exists
    • The product has been delivered to a customer
    • The sales price is fixed or determinable
    • Collection is reasonably assured


    In this case, the "customer" refers to a retailer or a carrier or other business.

    If the above 4 points are not met then Blackberry will only recognise revenue when a device has been sold through to an end user. In this case they will only count a sale when the device is sold through to the end user which is based upon internally generated reporting indicating when the devices are activated on the Companys relay infrastructure.

    I hope this helps.
    Thanks!

    So it appears that there is a possibility that a significant number of Passport sales via Digital River (shopblackberry) may not be reflected in their earnings until next quarter then. This would also align with what Chen said about Passport sales during the earnings call.

    Posted from my awesome White Z30
    12-21-14 12:40 PM
  11. AhmadCentral's Avatar
    I may have looked at the incorrect number, but stand by my original argument. --> Other than a limited run of Passports, what new phone has Blackberry produced since the Z30 (that was launched when the company put itself up for sale)? No new HW + no marketing + lacklustre reviews of previous HW (Z10+Q10) + winding down of BBOS = HW increase?

    They may be further from the 10m, but its hard to sell phones when you aren't really making anything new. And the phones you did make (Passport aside), were not spec competitive with other phone manufacturers, yet priced as high.
    I do agree, there haven't been many releases recently.

    What surprises me though is how In the first 12 months of BB10 devices we still saw more BB7 devices sold in to channel. This year is looking slightly different thankfully but it's still not a great number.

    In the last 9 months Blackberry have sold in 5,700,000 units.
    Of that number, 3,819,000 units were Blackberry 10 devices
    and a total of 1,881,000 units were Blackberry 7 devices.

    It's clear that more than 10 million Blackberry 10 devices have been sold in since January 31st 2013 when the Z10 first launched.

    Thanks!

    So it appears that there is a possibility that a significant number of Passport sales via Digital River (shopblackberry) may not be reflected in their earnings until next quarter then. This would also align with what Chen said about Passport sales during the earnings call.

    Posted from my awesome White Z30
    That is indeed correct. In fact Blackberry mentioned themselves that whilst a number of units were recognised when sold to carriers/retailers, the majority of units weren't recognised until they were sold through. This would mean shopblackberry and certain other regions where only sell through is recognised.

    It is safe to assume however that the 200k number would reside within in this quarters shipped number as otherwise Chen wouldn't announce it at all.
    Last edited by AhmadCentral; 12-21-14 at 02:31 PM.
    12-21-14 12:47 PM
  12. birdman_38's Avatar
    Because the OP's article states that BlackBerry device sales are responsible for 46% of BlackBerry's total take, I would say that the sales performance of BlackBerry devices remains a matter of intense interest.
    There might come a day when Chen and Co feel it's just not worth pursuing the hardware game anymore. They could sell that portion of the business for some $2.5 billion and reduce BlackBerry's headcount another 46%.

    The question is if the Canadian government would allow such a breakup.
    12-21-14 02:21 PM
  13. yessuz's Avatar
    There might come a day when Chen and Co feel it's just not worth pursuing the hardware game anymore. They could sell that portion of the business for some $2.5 billion and reduce BlackBerry's headcount another 46%.

    The question is if the Canadian government would allow such a breakup.
    This will not happen

    Posted via fantastic BlackBerry Passport. Damn, this thing is so awesome, that I am short of words to describe it's awesomenes. Like Majestic As...
    Bluenoser63 likes this.
    12-21-14 02:38 PM
  14. sentimentGX4's Avatar
    There might come a day when Chen and Co feel it's just not worth pursuing the hardware game anymore. They could sell that portion of the business for some $2.5 billion and reduce BlackBerry's headcount another 46%.

    The question is if the Canadian government would allow such a breakup.
    Blackberry's hardware business is still worth $2.5 billion with less than 1% marketshare?

    You can buy a company that actually sells handsets with that money. Motorola was only worth $3 billion. I'm not sure there would be any takers for $0.5 billion. If there are, it is for use of the brand name.

    Blackberry sat on its handset business for way too long. There's a big disparity between what investors think BBRY is worth and what tech giants are actually willing to pay right now.
    mornhavon likes this.
    12-21-14 03:24 PM
  15. eyesopen1111's Avatar
    There might come a day when Chen and Co feel it's just not worth pursuing the hardware game anymore. They could sell that portion of the business for some $2.5 billion and reduce BlackBerry's headcount another 46%.

    The question is if the Canadian government would allow such a breakup.
    Chen has already discussed the possibility of selling off the phones division. The problem is that it is so clear that BlackBerry needed a flagship all-touch this year because that's the form factor that can produce big sales numbers. Physical keyboard phones are simply not very popular, and the strategy of launching two PKB phones was extremely risky from the beginning.


    iPhone 6+ / iOS 8.1.2 / T-Mobile USA
    12-21-14 03:28 PM
  16. birdman_38's Avatar
    Blackberry's hardware business is still worth $2.5 billion with less than 1% marketshare?

    You can buy a company that actually sells handsets with that money. Motorola was only worth $3 billion. I'm not sure there would be any takers for $0.5 billion. If there are, it is for use of the brand name.
    Your guess is as good as mine. I threw out those numbers based on the entire company's market valuation and the percentage that the handset revenue represents.

    I agree with you that we need to be prepared for anything when it comes to handsets. If it proves to be dead weight, BlackBerry may either offload the division entirely or partner with someone other than Foxconn to manufacture them. Option "A" would be better for employees because there'd be a better chance of them keeping their jobs.
    12-21-14 06:46 PM
  17. Bluenoser63's Avatar
    Blackberry will recognise revenue when a device has been sold to a retailer.
    Wrong. Blackberry considers it revenue when the device is turned on. Take a look at the interview that Chen did with Bloomburg. You will also hear him say that they made money on hardware for the last two quarters.
    12-21-14 07:29 PM
  18. Bluenoser63's Avatar
    Chen has already discussed the possibility of selling off the phones division. The problem is that it is so clear that BlackBerry needed a flagship all-touch this year because that's the form factor that can produce big sales numbers. Physical keyboard phones are simply not very popular, and the strategy of launching two PKB phones was extremely risky from the beginning.
    iPhone 6+ / iOS 8.1.2 / T-Mobile USA
    He said he would consider it if they couldn't make money at hardware. He said in the Bloomberg interview that they made money on hardware for the last two quarters. So the possibility of selling the hardware division is now at zero. Unless they start losing money on making hardware.
    12-21-14 07:35 PM
  19. Nigelbrown's Avatar
    Samsung Mobile sales actually dropped 73.9% since last year.... this is a hard market

    Posted via CB10
    12-21-14 07:39 PM
  20. AhmadCentral's Avatar
    Wrong. Blackberry considers it revenue when the device is turned on. Take a look at the interview that Chen did with Bloomburg. You will also hear him say that they made money on hardware for the last two quarters.
    I'm not wrong.

    If you read Blackberry's financial reports you'll see I'm right.

    There are 4 conditions that need to be met for Blackberry to recognise revenue on a handset sale. Selling a device to a retailer fulfils that criteria. In some cases Blackberry won't count the sale till it's sold through to the end user and activated, this applies for direct sales and sales in certain regions where the above criteria cannot be met.

    Would you like me to link you proof?

    And besides, Blackberry always say they recognise revenue on x amount of devices but sold in x amount of devices. For example, last quarter Blackberry sold in and recognised revenue on 2.1m devices and 2.4m devices were sold through to end users. See.... two different numbers....

    There is still a lot of stock in the channel from previous quarters that is waiting to be sold. It's a lot less than it was but there is still a lot.
    Last edited by AhmadCentral; 12-21-14 at 08:36 PM.
    12-21-14 07:43 PM
  21. Prem WatsApp's Avatar
    Chen has already discussed the possibility of selling off the phones division. The problem is that it is so clear that BlackBerry needed a flagship all-touch this year because that's the form factor that can produce big sales numbers. Physical keyboard phones are simply not very popular, and the strategy of launching two PKB phones was extremely risky from the beginning.


    iPhone 6+ / iOS 8.1.2 / T-Mobile USA
    The Passport is great, and I'm glad BlackBerry got that far with their software and hardware. The new financial results make it clear, they need some consumer sales to sustain them (until software revenues kick in). I can now more clearly see the need for a plain vanilla touch with high specs to get back in there. After all, and I never objected, it's part of a complete phone line-up that makes up BlackBerry, PKB, VKB and hybrids...

    The smartphone market, and especially the enthusiast (high spec Fandroids) and niche market (BerryHeads), thrives on the fast replacement cycle.... and they haven't been feeding it on a yearly basis...

    Apps issue is now largely solved with Amazon. Then add all the other workarounds we have come up with that make the "no apps" argument less and less of a problem.




      Zzzzwipetypetapped from The Maskport - Zzzzmoqin'....  
    eyesopen1111 likes this.
    12-21-14 08:45 PM
  22. eyesopen1111's Avatar
    The Passport is great, and I'm glad BlackBerry got that far with their software and hardware. The new financial results make it clear, they need some consumer sales to sustain them (until software revenues kick in). I can now more clearly see the need for a plain vanilla touch with high specs to get back in there. After all, and I never objected, it's part of a complete phone line-up that makes up BlackBerry, PKB, VKB and hybrids...

    The smartphone market, and especially the enthusiast (high spec Fandroids) and niche market (BerryHeads), thrives on the fast replacement cycle.... and they haven't been feeding it on a yearly basis...

    Apps issue is now largely solved with Amazon. Then add all the other workarounds we have come up with that make the "no apps" argument less and less of a problem.
    LOL, I'm available for hire, private message me!

    Music! That is music to my ears, sir! I love the idea of a high-end all-touch, and I really like what you say about the rapid replacement cycle and the opportunity it holds for BlackBerry. The more and faster, the better! I'm on an upgrade plan that's good every 6 months.

    I'll mention a couple of things about the app issue. First, I agree that consumer sales are supportive of BlackBerry success. But, I think that the reality that enterprise alone is not enough should impact how the BlackBerry native ecosystem should be considered and developed. A strong, independent BlackBerry World should remain a goal because once there are enough BlackBerry devices out there, developers will come in higher numbers.

    Second, it'll be prudent to build BlackBerry's own ecosystem because I think that Google will continue to make it more and more difficult to piggy back on their apps. We're already seeing more in terms of requirements for Google Play Services to both access APIs and to access popular Android apps. The BlackBerry Android run time will always trail by necessity Google's Android development. So, BlackBerry's current app approach is working well enough for now, I suppose, but I'm not sure that I'm comfortable that it's good enough for long term expansion, is it?


    iPhone 6+ / iOS 8.1.2 / T-Mobile USA
    12-21-14 10:22 PM
  23. LuvULongTime's Avatar
    LOL, I'm available for hire, private message me!

    Music! That is music to my ears, sir! I love the idea of a high-end all-touch, and I really like what you say about the rapid replacement cycle and the opportunity it holds for BlackBerry. The more and faster, the better! I'm on an upgrade plan that's good every 6 months.

    I'll mention a couple of things about the app issue. First, I agree that consumer sales are supportive of BlackBerry success. But, I think that the reality that enterprise alone is not enough should impact how the BlackBerry native ecosystem should be considered and developed. A strong, independent BlackBerry World should remain a goal because once there are enough BlackBerry devices out there, developers will come in higher numbers.

    Second, it'll be prudent to build BlackBerry's own ecosystem because I think that Google will continue to make it more and more difficult to piggy back on their apps. We're already seeing more in terms of requirements for Google Play Services to both access APIs and to access popular Android apps. The BlackBerry Android run time will always trail by necessity Google's Android development. So, BlackBerry's current app approach is working well enough for now, I suppose, but I'm not sure that I'm comfortable that it's good enough for long term expansion, is it?


    iPhone 6+ / iOS 8.1.2 / T-Mobile USA
    In my ideal scenario they clean BB world of any and all Android ports and encourage only native apps, both enterprise and consumer. Help independent devs like Nemory as much as they can, and where possible buy their own license for a big name app and develop their own version of it, like they have done with Facebook. They need to knock off all the social media apps beyond the core apps like FB and any other big name. Basically the top 100 apps in north america on both iOS and Android should be their goal.

    Edit: And I'll add that they need to bring back music and movie purchases, even if only a small subset of users took advantage of the service.
    12-21-14 11:39 PM
  24. anon1727506's Avatar
    In my ideal scenario they clean BB world of any and all Android ports and encourage only native apps, both enterprise and consumer. Help independent devs like Nemory as much as they can, and where possible buy their own license for a big name app and develop their own version of it, like they have done with Facebook. They need to knock off all the social media apps beyond the core apps like FB and any other big name. Basically the top 100 apps in north america on both iOS and Android should be their goal.

    Edit: And I'll add that they need to bring back music and movie purchases, even if only a small subset of users took advantage of the service.
    We are past the point where they could do this....
    • Low sales, with possible end in sight
    • High number of users with multiple devices
    • BB10 target audience is Enterprise, which tends to disable the ability to install apps (even with Balance)
    • Brand has been very popular in markets with the sales of apps are pretty low



    And look at Microsoft, they did try to do much of this, they threw money at developers left and right and even built a few Apps themselves. But their marketshare seems to have slipped and the Windows Store is still far from what it needs to be.

    But yeah if they HAD uses the PlayBook as a device to get the BB10 platform going... if they had priced it as a "test" devices, if they had understood the importance of BUILDING the platform then and not thinking that once they built the phones developers would come.... maybe by the time the phones came there would have been a platform.

    It's very easy to look back now and see where thing went wrong... what is difficult now is seeing how to recover from those mistakes.
    mornhavon likes this.
    12-22-14 07:32 AM
  25. LuvULongTime's Avatar
    We are past the point where they could do this....
    • Low sales, with possible end in sight
    • High number of users with multiple devices
    • BB10 target audience is Enterprise, which tends to disable the ability to install apps (even with Balance)
    • Brand has been very popular in markets with the sales of apps are pretty low



    And look at Microsoft, they did try to do much of this, they threw money at developers left and right and even built a few Apps themselves. But their marketshare seems to have slipped and the Windows Store is still far from what it needs to be.

    But yeah if they HAD uses the PlayBook as a device to get the BB10 platform going... if they had priced it as a "test" devices, if they had understood the importance of BUILDING the platform then and not thinking that once they built the phones developers would come.... maybe by the time the phones came there would have been a platform.

    It's very easy to look back now and see where thing went wrong... what is difficult now is seeing how to recover from those mistakes.
    I don't agree that they are past the point. It's never too late to do the right thing. And the comparisons to Windows phone are somewhat relevant. However the difference is BB has Android apps to fill in the gap, whereas Windows does not. So whatever native app is missing in BB world can easily be attained via Amazon/Android. This is huge from a marketing perspective assuming BB can ever figure this out.
    12-22-14 10:51 AM
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