01-06-15 06:53 PM
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  1. AhmadCentral's Avatar
    No body can deny your numbers and the chill it is bringing on.
    I'll delighted if you dig some MDM figures and their fleet strength for the past 5 years and see who stands where. That's where the vanilla is. :-)
    Sorry, I don't have any MDM numbers. But I do have numbers for the global smartphone market for FY2014-15 H1 which you can read here.

    forums. digitalspy. co. uk/ showthread.php?t=2023267

    Because the OP's article states that BlackBerry device sales are responsible for 46% of BlackBerry's total take, I would say that the sales performance of BlackBerry devices remains a matter of intense interest.

    As for Crackberry, most of us are here to talk about smartphones, so any talk of BlackBerry's exit from the smartphone arena would make us sad.

    It's worth bearing in mind that ~3 years ago hardware revenue accounted for over 70% and even as high as 80% of Blacberry's total revenue.

    46% is still a great number but when you look at it realistically, hardware revenue has decreased to $1,524m in the past 12 months from $5,112m during the same period the year before. That's over 70% down YOY.

    forums. digitalspy .co. uk/ showpost.php?p=76115301&postcount=9
    12-20-14 06:01 AM
  2. z1nsane's Avatar
    Tell this story to Ferrari. Tell it to all the small/medium businesses around the world. Or maybe you are a fan of there only being 2 companies in the world? It makes it easier for the masses to further shut down their brains. Are you wearing a blue shirt or a red one?


    Sent while driving from my Crackberry.
    As a business graduate, I also like to use a similar argument when I get into these types of discussions. As long as BlackBerry can offer differentiated products that enough people would buy to offset their fixed and variable expenses, they can survive. And it's not like all industries only have two players, so why smartphones?

    Posted via CB10
    12-20-14 06:46 AM
  3. crackberry_geek's Avatar
    According to the Wall Street Journal, Blackberry has sold ~5.7 million smartphones thus far this year. It looks like Blackberry will fall short of its 10 million unit goal. I wonder how Chen will respond?

    I am skeptical he will axe hardware at this point; because, at the end of the day, Blackberry is a hardware company before a software and services company and it has always been the sales of hardware that sell the software and services.
    Exactly!

    BlackBerry is definitely NOT a software company. And it drives me crazy to keep hearing Chen think he can save the company with software.

    H377... they can't even get a simple package like XBBM working correctly with all promised features... after more than a year...

    Posted via CB10
    12-20-14 07:03 AM
  4. ponpiri's Avatar
    It's tough to have good sales numbers when: the Z10, Z30, Q10 and Q5 are all but discontinued; the Z3 still hasn't been released in North America or Europe; the Passport was out of stock for about half the quarter; zero American carriers have started selling it yet; and there hasn't been a hint of marketing.

    With all those factors considered, I'm almost surprised they got 2M sales. The biggest difference next quarter I think is whether or not carriers actually pick up the Classic as promised (and AT&T finally gets the Passport). You can only get so many sales from unlocked phones off Amazon.

    Thank you. As usual people are looking at the numbers and are forgetting the context. I hope the lack of BB presence will be changed soon. I doubt that they will be able to convert many people who have a strange, very strong bias against BB phones, but to at least have them released and on some displays will help the message get pushed.
    12-20-14 07:43 AM
  5. AhmadCentral's Avatar
    Thank you. As usual people are looking at the numbers and are forgetting the context. I hope the lack of BB presence will be changed soon. I doubt that they will be able to convert many people who have a strange, very strong bias against BB phones, but to at least have them released and on some displays will help the message get pushed.
    The issue in the western world is that carriers are king.

    In the UK for example, only ~30% of phones are sold as unlocked and the rest are sold either on contract or locked via a carrier.
    The USA probably has a much lower ratio with the overwhelming majority of phones sold via carriers but I don't have numbers for that unfortunately.

    Here in the UK the new Blackberry 10 devices have either been sold exclusively unlocked or on just one of the 4 major carriers. Hutchison 3G haven't sold a Blackberry device through their channels in the UK for over a year now and even EE and O2 no longer sell new Blackberry devices through their official channels. The newly launched Passport is only officially available through Vodafone on contract, all other sales channels sell the device unlocked for 579 off contract.

    Blackberry has seen a huge sales decline in Asia (Indonesia) which is where unlocked smartphones are very popular. Once holding over 50% market share, it's now less than 15% in Indonesia. As mentioned, in Indonesia, most smartphones are purchased unlocked and so carrier relations aren't needed as much. And so with Blackberry losing the Asian market rapidly they need to keep their traditional strongholds in the west by selling more smartphones there. The issue being that carriers aren't taking Blackberry devices in the west, well not in large numbers anyway.

    So to put it simply, If Blackberry aren't selling to carriers in the west, they're not selling to customers. Sure some will buy unlocked and some large businesses will put in big orders and Asia still counts a bit. But the overall story is that Google and Apple are leading the way in smartphone sales, Microsoft are now shipping more than 4x as many Windows phones than Blackberrys and Blackberry are no longer what they once were.

    One thing I do want to say is that even if Blackberry start selling in to more carriers, it doesn't necessarily mean that total sales will increase as it seems the popular opinion at the moment is to buy Android or iOS and a lot of people have moved on from Blackberry devices now. Even those that may want to go back could have a hard time justifying the reasons when they can get an arguably better experience on a different phone and even use BBM on that different phone as well.

    2015 will be in an interesting year as Chen said himself that Blackberry need to sell 10 million devices a year to survive, well they're going to miss that target this year and if they don't do anything soon they're going to miss that target by a very long way next year. Devices continue to sell through to end users but the demand for new stock is very weak at the moment.
    Last edited by AhmadCentral; 12-20-14 at 09:17 AM.
    12-20-14 08:05 AM
  6. white shirt only's Avatar
    BlackBerry is just at the beginning of revamping its product line. Only the Passport was new. This quarter isn't really relevant.

    Posted via CB10
    12-20-14 10:51 AM
  7. eyesopen1111's Avatar
    BlackBerry is just at the beginning of revamping its product line. Only the Passport was new. This quarter isn't really relevant.

    Posted via CB10
    I agree with you that the Passport was new, but what about the launch of the Classic? Is the Classic chopped liver? So, given that two new BlackBerry devices were launched, why wouldn't this quarter count?

    I'm one of the many Crackberry members who wanted a new flagship all-touch launched this year. It was a big BlackBerry mistake to focus on physical qwerty phones, given that the broader market wants all-touch smartphones.

    Z-30 / STA100-5 / 10.3.0.1418 / T-Mobile USA
    12-20-14 11:07 AM
  8. hpjrt's Avatar
    I agree with you that the Passport was new, but what about the launch of the Classic? Is the Classic chopped liver? So, given that two new BlackBerry devices were launched, why wouldn't this quarter count?

    I'm one of the many Crackberry members who wanted a new flagship all-touch launched this year. It was a big BlackBerry mistake to focus on physical qwerty phones, given that the broader market wants all-touch smartphones.

    Z-30 / STA100-5 / 10.3.0.1418 / T-Mobile USA
    The 3rd quarter ended December 2nd, I believe.

    Posted from my BlackBerry Passport
    12-20-14 11:18 AM
  9. AhmadCentral's Avatar
    The 3rd quarter ended December 2nd, I believe.

    Posted from my BlackBerry Passport
    Close

    The 2.0m devices shipped is from sep 1st to november 29th

    The number includes Passport but wont include Classic. Blackberry Classic sales will be included in the next quarter sales released next March.
    eyesopen1111 likes this.
    12-20-14 11:42 AM
  10. eyesopen1111's Avatar
    Close

    The 2.0m devices shipped is from sep 1st to november 29th

    The number includes Passport but wont include Classic. Blackberry Classic sales will be included in the next quarter sales released next March.
    Is there any way to know or estimate how that number breaks down as to BlackBerry model types? That is, how many Passports, Z30's, Q10's, etc.?


    iPhone 6+ / iOS 8.1.2 / T-Mobile USA
    12-20-14 12:43 PM
  11. AhmadCentral's Avatar
    Is there any way to know or estimate how that number breaks down as to BlackBerry model types? That is, how many Passports, Z30's, Q10's, etc.?


    iPhone 6+ / iOS 8.1.2 / T-Mobile USA
    Unfortunately not.

    The only way we will find out is if Blackberry announce unit sales for each model or if a research tracking firm decide to release numbers publicly. The likelihood of that happening at this point is very very low.

    The only sold number we have comes from the Blackberry Passport launch where Chen announced that 200,000 Passports had been ordered. So at a minimum we know that 200k Passports were sold this quarter.


    I have access to a number of UK sell through figures on my end. The number of Blackberry devices sold through to end users in the UK totalled 268,275 units in Q3 CY2014. In H1 CY2014, the number of Blackberry devices sold though to end users in the UK totalled 471,455 units which means the total amount sold through to end customers in the first 3 quarters of CY2014 (Jan 1st 2014 - Sep 30th 2014) is approximately 740,205 units.

    However, please bear in mind that these numbers are estimated and not official. But so far this year, Blackberry are on track to sell through 1,035,000 units to consumers in the UK. That would give Blackberry just under ~4% share of the UK market.

    If you're interested in UK sales figures then I have them here:

    Number of Blackberry devices sold through to end users in the UK. (2014 is estimated)

    2009 : 968,000
    2010 : 2,018,000
    2011 : 3,367,000
    2012 : 2,395,000
    2013 : 1,580,000
    2014E: ~1,035,000
    Last edited by AhmadCentral; 12-20-14 at 02:10 PM.
    12-20-14 01:07 PM
  12. KingOfQwerty's Avatar
    Sorry, I don't have any MDM numbers. But I do have numbers for the global smartphone market for FY2014-15 H1 which you can read here.

    forums. digitalspy. co. uk/ showthread.php?t=2023267




    It's worth bearing in mind that ~3 years ago hardware revenue accounted for over 70% and even as high as 80% of Blacberry's total revenue.

    46% is still a great number but when you look at it realistically, hardware revenue has decreased to $1,524m in the past 12 months from $5,112m during the same period the year before. That's over 70% down YOY.

    forums. digitalspy .co. uk/ showpost.php?p=76115301&postcount=9
    Yep, I read that. But as I said one should focus on MDM market and where BBRY stands is going to be interesting.

    Posted via CB10
    12-20-14 01:17 PM
  13. AhmadCentral's Avatar
    Yep, I read that. But as I said one should focus on MDM market and where BBRY stands is going to be interesting.

    Posted via CB10
    Thanks for reading

    And yes, I totally agree that the MDM & Services market will be very interesting to watch. Especially to see if it'll be enough for Blackberry to profit from in the long run. By combining MDM & Services we could see the Enterprise side of Blackberry grow to be larger than hardware and provide much better margins.

    Still some way to go though.
    12-20-14 01:29 PM
  14. Soulstream's Avatar
    The problem with BB existing as a mainly software-based company is that most people here want phones (hardware) and if BB at some point stops making phones, that won't be the BB that people love anymore.
    12-20-14 01:38 PM
  15. AhmadCentral's Avatar
    Which is why Blackberry are trying their best to keep making quality hardware and bundling it with quality software and services. However going alone isn't smart for Blackberry (based on their declining hardware base) and so opening up their services to other platforms was the right thing to do and could allow them to expand the enterprise side of the organisation in a large way.... or it could flop. It'll be interesting to watch as Blackberry need to counteract their falling hardware revenues.
    12-20-14 01:41 PM
  16. eyesopen1111's Avatar
    ...
    The only sold number we have comes from the Blackberry Passport launch where Chen announced that 200,000 Passports had been ordered. So at a minimum we know that 200k Passports were sold this quarter.
    So the 200,000 pre-orders announced by Chen would be considered "sold-in" but not "sold-through", right? Didn't the 200,000 include the Passports that would ultimately be retailed by carriers, shop.blackberry.com, and Amazon.com?

    Z-30 / STA100-5 / 10.3.0.1418 / T-Mobile USA
    12-20-14 02:39 PM
  17. AhmadCentral's Avatar
    They would be considered sold in for Blackberry.

    I have sold through numbers for the UK if you look in my post above. Not model specific but accounts for all Blackberry devices.
    12-20-14 03:05 PM
  18. TomasTT's Avatar
    BlackBerry should fix their sales channels at some european countries. Here at us had rock solid position some 5 years ago. Today - we cannot go and buy Passport from most (if not all) providers. My sales rep at O2 loughs when I asked if they will carry Passport. Not sure about other countries but at us is no Blackberry branch or even representative, no publicity, nothing in magazines. Zero publicity really. Passport was not possible to buy until few days ago. So what whole fall could BlackBerry fans here buy? Old handheld, when they knew about new line?
    Classic should be introduced at November. Now it looks we will be able to buy it at February. How can BlackBerry expect some sales figures, when they don't have new devices at stores and even worse - are not offered by carriers?

    Posted using BlackBerry Q10
    12-20-14 07:16 PM
  19. Troy Tiscareno's Avatar
    BlackBerry is just at the beginning of revamping its product line. Only the Passport was new. This quarter isn't really relevant.
    6 months ago, everyone was talking about how the Z3, launching into markets where BB had 35M BBOS customers (BB's biggest markets), was going to sell many millions to all of those die-hard BB fans. Instead, it appears that the Z3 has sold less than 500K phones over 6 months, and seems to have made no real noise following its launch.

    The reality is that most of the BB sales this past quarter have been the heavily discounted Z10 and Q10 phones that BB isn't making much money on. At least they cleared out a lot of the remaining inventory, which is good, but it didn't bring in a lot of revenue, which is one of the reasons they missed revenue estimates.

    The real question is: will enough people be willing to pay full price for BB phones in the future? There aren't going to be any phones over-produced, even if BB has to let phones go out-of-stock for a month or two at a time while they order another batch to be produced, but that also means that the discounts that so many have gotten used to will be a thing of the past. And having to pay full price means that BB phones will be compared to other phones selling for the same price, and for most people, that will be a losing comparison for BB, unless they HAVE to have a keyboard or they're a die-hard BB10 fan (and those people will pay whatever BB asks - there just aren't enough of them).
    jmr1015, kbz1960, marty314 and 1 others like this.
    12-20-14 07:22 PM
  20. oneinfiniteloop's Avatar
    there was message, not sure, how accurate, that passports were about 10% of revenue. so this is like 120k passports shipped. kinda small number.
    When one analyst asked why the ASP so low assuming 10% of Passport sales with higher gross margins were included in the revenue - the CFO said that 10% was on the higher side - but he stopped short of providing the percentage. He said the low ASP (~$180) was mainly due to the legacy devices - so looks like, Blackberry hardly booked any #BB10 devices this quarter!
    12-20-14 07:53 PM
  21. Bluenoser63's Avatar
    Exactly!

    BlackBerry is definitely NOT a software company. And it drives me crazy to keep hearing Chen think he can save the company with software.

    H377... they can't even get a simple package like XBBM working correctly with all promised features... after more than a year...

    Posted via CB10
    So what is BES? Hardware? How long has Blackberry used BES?
    12-20-14 08:48 PM
  22. crackberry_geek's Avatar
    So what is BES? Hardware? How long has Blackberry used BES?
    My comment doesn't mean they don't have a software portfolio. Rather it was in support of another's comment who noted they were first a hardware company, which led to software. And that is entirely true.

    BlackBerry's previous successes were entirely hardware driven, even if enabled by software.

    For a company who today can't even get BBM notifications to work reliably across platforms... I do believe it ludicrous to think they will succeed in much more complicated cross platform software. They OBVIOUSLY don't have the software talent they may once have had.

    Posted via CB10
    12-21-14 12:40 AM
  23. BB fan forever's Avatar
    Looks like JC is out of low hanging fruit.
    Software sales are lagging and service income is dropping.
    Sales of hardware is not good.

    The Classic is not going to do enough to offset the loss of service revenue.

    The sales of the Classic will tell if JC is doing what is needed or if he is just doing as "he" pleases.



    BlackBerry hates America!
    Who wouldn't hate America? I mean C'mon.. JK I'm from America lol. I don't really expect BlackBerry to focus on here currently.

    Posted via CB10
    12-21-14 03:17 AM
  24. crazigee's Avatar
    I'm up $800 today on today's purchase of cheap BlackBerry shares. A lot of haters here sure spend a lot of time trying to convince us BlackBerry sucks. Their long winded misleading posts are comical and their questions to answers that they already know the answer is also comical. Thanks for the cheap shares shorts I am sure to make $1000 just today.

    Posted via CB10
    Apparently your definition of a hater is anyone who doesn't think BlackBerry is perfection.

     Posted via CB10 
    12-21-14 04:04 AM
  25. Shanerredflag's Avatar
    I keep hearing "enterprise all the way" or the have a vision....

    The Z3 was Chen's.... it was not an enterprise device.
    The Passport was Chen's.... seen no real indication it has been marketed or is being sold as an enterprise device.
    BBM/Channels is not an enterprise product.

    The focus on hardware today is that right now that is 50% of their business... and if you allow for the fact that many of the Services Licenses that they do sell, would go away without the hardware to go with it. Without hardware, the current company wouldn't be bringing in more that a few hundred million in revenues.

    Now there is a lot of TALK about the future... of the company being more about software and services. But that is more a result of where they are heading, not where they want to be heading.

    QNX, BES, IoT, BBM, Channels, Secure Networks... there is potential there, but they are a long way from turning those into the kind of revenues that even now hardware is bring in. And there are many other companies work on the same things... some with much more backing and a bigger head start. I'm not sure where BlackBerry is headed... at this point I don't see hardware in their future as you can only milk your fanbase for so long. I think if next ER we find out that the Passport and Classic did nothing to stop the decline in hardware sales, and if Service Revenues don't start showing a marked increase... you will find BlackBerry will become a very affordable company for someone to buy and then break up.

    If they do sell a million Passports and maybe four million Classics and Service Revenues see a major jump... then all could go well for Chen and BlackBerry.
    No sorry...the Z3 was already developed BEFORE Chen arrived, as was the Passport. The only device which is on Chen is the Classic, so we will have to wait and see how that works out.
    EZ Pass ends this month, so rev up the monitzation folks.

    Passport'n stuff all day long.
    sentimentGX4 likes this.
    12-21-14 07:34 AM
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