12-05-17 10:31 AM
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  1. stlabrat's Avatar
    The Z10 was a bomb - it was both the start and the end of the road - they had to take a near billion dollar write-down on that turkey.
    not totally true. initial sale number was too good that resulted some over confidence - try to please carrier and/or high ups with rosy forecast that doomed the z10 (how much units you can write down for 1 B? not mention the elephant feet, Bono, Alicia Key, etc. etc. - don't tell me not enough marketing money... few guys made rich just port the droid app to BB10 too...). BlackBerry Z10 sold out in India within 2 days: CEO | NDTV Gadgets360.com
    Last edited by stlabrat; 01-06-17 at 09:51 AM.
    01-06-17 09:13 AM
  2. cgk's Avatar
    not totally true. initial sale number was too good that resulted some over confidence - try to please carrier and/or high ups with rosy forecast that doomed the z10 (how much units you can write down for 1 B? not mention the elephant feet, Bono, Alicia Key, etc. etc. - don't tell me not enough marketing money... few guys made rich just port the droid app to BB10 too...). BlackBerry Z10 sold out in India within 2 days: CEO | NDTV Gadgets360.com
    "sold out in India in 2 days"


    Here's the thing about that type of story - if there are no solid unit numbers, it's a PR stunt. This is how you do it:

    1) You release a really really low number into a market - say a few hundred

    2) You keep this number to yourself

    3) You sell out!

    You can spin it how you like - the Z10 was a bomb, was always a bomb and wasn't a great seller anywhere at any point - it's all there in the earnings calls from the time.
    01-06-17 10:01 AM
  3. G_Unit MVP's Avatar
    This is where our opinions differ. I believe the battle was lost in 2010 - 3 years before BB10 was launched.

    Developers had no compelling reason to support more than two ecosystems. They could reach over 95% of the world with just 2 apps (now 99.9%).
    Your are saying it like developing and supporting apps is an obligation. I think you are wrong in that. It's a business, and an opportunity to make money. If in the future another platform (from any company, not talking of BBRY) sees the light, and get some attention, you will see how developers can (and will) launch and support their apps for a third ecosystem. It's all about money.
    01-06-17 10:07 AM
  4. brookie229's Avatar
    "sold out in India in 2 days"
    Yep, another example---Passport----made 250k or so and "sold out" in a matter of hours/day. Sounds good but the reality is that it can be easy to "sell out" a very limited production number.
    cgk likes this.
    01-06-17 10:09 AM
  5. thurask's Avatar
    "sold out in India in 2 days"


    Here's the thing about that type of story - if there are no solid unit numbers, it's a PR stunt. This is how you do it:

    1) You release a really really low number into a market - say a few hundred

    2) You keep this number to yourself

    3) You sell out!

    You can spin it how you like - the Z10 was a bomb, was always a bomb and wasn't a great seller anywhere at any point - it's all there in the earnings calls from the time.
    Always relevant.
    cgk and Dunt Dunt Dunt like this.
    01-06-17 10:10 AM
  6. cgk's Avatar
    Remember when the Blackberry Bomb was all the rage on the dance floors? You all know the steps.

    1) BB10 device announced

    2) Lurid forum claims that it would be the 'saviour phone'

    3) Counter-claims on the forum it would be another bomb

    4) Release

    5) BBRY statements that it is 'doing well', 'having a great reception'

    6) Stories that a rep told them that the device is outselling the iphone, Galaxy combined

    7) Stories about how people were so amazed in person by the device, they smashed their iphone/galaxy with a hammer and ran straight to the store to order 10 for them and all their family members

    7) Earning calls - figures reveal the phone is a flop

    8) Return to 1.
    01-06-17 10:20 AM
  7. Troy Tiscareno's Avatar
    Don't forget $250M of that billion dollars was a for a Superbowl commercial that to this day, no one understands.
    It was probably closer to $4M - $3.5M to actually air the commercial and $500k to produce it. If 60 seconds during the SB cost $250M, we wouldn't have a SB.
    Dunt Dunt Dunt likes this.
    01-06-17 10:37 AM
  8. Dunt Dunt Dunt's Avatar
    Your are saying it like developing and supporting apps is an obligation. I think you are wrong in that. It's a business, and an opportunity to make money. If in the future another platform (from any company, not talking of BBRY) sees the light, and get some attention, you will see how developers can (and will) launch and support their apps for a third ecosystem. It's all about money.
    True....

    But HOW does any other company go from ZERO to hundreds of millions of devices to begin attracting developers? At some point, you are just too late to enter a mature market "as it is".

    I'm not totally sure BB10 could not have survived as a niche enterprise / government solution.... if BlackBerry had focused on that in the beginning and not have gotten themselves sidetracked with the consumers market and then in major financial trouble. But their transition from BBOS was nonexistent, their product was a buggy mess at first, not even BlackBerry had any answers. When the "For Sale" sign went up, many of the key potential enterprise customers... just could not ignore that. In the end, MIke and Jim were just two tech nerds that got lucky for a while, but really had no clue how to run a tech business. You just can't wait and see how things turn out.
    StephanieMaks likes this.
    01-06-17 11:12 AM
  9. StephanieMaks's Avatar
    really ?
    my Blackberry devices are running fine, would have noticed if any of them would be dead...

    Posted via -Passport -Classic / OS-10.3.++ is all you need
    This is great news!

    Along the same reasoning, the Apple Newton, Handspring Visor, HP LX200 and heck even the Agenda VR3 are all alive and well, based on what still functions in my old electronics drawer.
    01-06-17 11:19 AM
  10. Dunt Dunt Dunt's Avatar
    This is great news!

    Along the same reasoning, the Apple Newton, Handspring Visor, HP LX200 and heck even the Agenda VR3 are all alive and well, based on what still functions in my old electronics drawer.
    Yeah I just pulled out an old Nikon D50 and gave it to my 5 year old granddaughter to play photographer with.... paid close to $1000 bucks for it a decade ago, and it still works. But it's a six megapixel camera that I've long since replaced. And too be honest my wife's iPhone 7+ takes care of most of the photo needs these days.

    BB10 is basically just EOL (not officially yet)... it will go on "working" for years to come. But there will be no growth, no new devices, no new features. It's technology that is standing still....
    01-06-17 11:45 AM
  11. ToniCipriani's Avatar
    This is great news!

    Along the same reasoning, the Apple Newton, Handspring Visor, HP LX200 and heck even the Agenda VR3 are all alive and well, based on what still functions in my old electronics drawer.
    Don't forget my Pre 3, still warm and dry on its Touchstone dock.
    cbosdell likes this.
    01-06-17 11:46 AM
  12. cribble2k's Avatar
    "Full Commitment" could simply mean "supporting the devices already in wild".

    So, there may be no more new BB10 devices, however, expect to see one OS patch a year, for the next 1 year.
    01-06-17 11:55 AM
  13. BurningPlatform's Avatar
    This is where our opinions differ. I believe the battle was lost in 2010 - 3 years before BB10 was launched. Developers had no compelling reason to support more than two ecosystems. They could reach over 95% of the world with just 2 apps (now 99.9%).
    This is theory, reality is different. Maybe you should talk to some average Android and iOS developers - not huge and rich companies but countless individuals. Ask them how insanely difficult it is to even just get noticed on those totally saturated platforms. Hundreds of thousands of developers make for those platforms apps that then no one downloads because no one ever finds them. Check out some Google Play or Apple appstore stats which clearly say that there's a huge (like 60-70% or so) number of apps that haven't been downloaded even once. Except for a few lucky ones, usually enormous efforts (and/or expenses) are now needed for a new developer to make himself and his apps noticed by anyone. Not to mention, that it is even harder to make an app for Android or iOS that already wouldn't have had 100 other existing similar apps, already available for some time and thus much better positioned in the app store than your new app. Think out literally ANY idea of an app and check how many existing competitors it'll have.

    It is a MYTH that you just make an app for Android or iOS and all the money is yours. On the contrary, apps of millions of developers die unnoticed. So it's not true that developers are not interested in anything but these two platforms, many of them keep looking for alternatives simply because their apps on Android or iOS don't sell, whereas on a new platform it would be much easier for them to break through and make apps that do not yet have ANY competitors.

    But in case of Android-compatible BB10 (and BlackBerry not having done absolutely anything to promote/favorize native apps) it wasn't making any sense for them to even try, because they'd have to compete with THE VERY SAME Android apps as on Android itself. That's the point.

    The LEAST BlackBerry should have done was to clearly distinguish all native apps in the store (not just the Built For BlackBerry ones, but all native apps) and favorize them (list on top) in all search results, categories, featured lists, etc. They have never done even just that. It was taking HOURS to scroll every category and search results list to find a native app buried under tons of completely useless Android junk, which was only strengthening the impression that this platform has no native apps.

    This BBW store is organized so poorly and it SUPRESSES native apps (by not distinguishing them from countless Android apps totally eclipsing them) in such an awful way that whenever my app gets featured on the home Carousel it instantly gets HUNDREDS of new downloads even though it's been available for 4 years (!) and people write in their reviews "Gosh! I was looking for an app of this kind for ages!" but they couldn't find it in that ocean of utter cr*p the BBW store is filled with. My EasyStreetView app got featured on the Carousel yesterday late evening and since then it got more downloads than over the past whole month.

    In the UK - the Z10 was a hero phone for one of our largest networks - ads everywhere, big POS displays in stores, decent incentives. It still died. It's just revisionist history to claim it wasn't promoted
    OK, so in the UK it was, but in e.g. Poland (40 million people) it wasn't, and I could easily name a dozen or two of other countries with a few billion people in total where it wan't either. It was promoted in a few (big, but still just a few) markets (US, UK, France, Germany, etc.), and not promoted anywhere else.

    OK, so BlackBerry didn't just have to let people know that they still exist. They also needed to promote it in the worldwide markets, maintain support infrastructure comparable to the big boys, get it talked about in the tech media as well as the consumer media, maybe open BlackBerry stores in major cities, and get all of the carriers to support them.
    Even some funny Meizu or Xiaomi could do it (make their brand and devices recognized worldwide), only BlackBerry couldn't do it, right?

    Then, they need a magical walled garden app ecosystem that simultaneously has all of the apps that users want inside but keeps out competition for developers. In other words, all of the benefits of competition without the actual competition.
    If you want to argue, maybe first read what you argue with. I did not negate Android compatibility in general, I only described its obvious negative impact on native development, which means that if a company chooses to go with Android compatibility then certain actions to protect and stimulate development of native apps are a MUST, or otherwise it'll fail as it won't be able to compete with millions of free Android apps without special support and promotion.

    In India the misconception about BB is huge. As a matter of fact transition to new BB10 OS was not so smooth, BB failed to convince it's fan that this new OS is not the old OS and this OS is far better than previous one.
    That's right. Lots and lots of people who knew and owned former BBOS phones did not know that the new ones were based on a completely new OS. They thought that it was still the same BBOS. So BlackBerry didn't manage to properly inform even their existing user base.
    01-06-17 01:19 PM
  14. G_Unit MVP's Avatar
    But HOW does any other company go from ZERO to hundreds of millions of devices to begin attracting developers? At some point, you are just too late to enter a mature market "as it is".
    Same way iOs did when Blackberry ruled the game. People seems to forget a while ago Blackberry was the KING (which also show you how volatile this market is...). And same way Android did after that.

    Yes, you need tons of money, and (a big AND) you have to be wise and know how to spend it. But it's doable.
    01-06-17 02:09 PM
  15. cbvinh's Avatar
    If it was just about spending the dollars to have marketing, developer support, developer incentives, etc. then Windows Phone would be a third ecosystem, competitive with Android and iOS.
    Tim-ANC likes this.
    01-06-17 03:30 PM
  16. cgk's Avatar
    This is theory, reality is different. Maybe you should talk to some average Android and iOS developers - not huge and rich companies but countless individuals. Ask them how insanely difficult it is to even just get noticed on those totally saturated platforms. Hundreds of thousands of developers make for those platforms apps that then no one downloads because no one ever finds them. Check out some Google Play or Apple appstore stats which clearly say that there's a huge (like 60-70% or so) number of apps that haven't been downloaded even once. Except for a few lucky ones, usually enormous efforts (and/or expenses) are now needed for a new developer to make himself and his apps noticed by anyone. Not to mention, that it is even harder to make an app for Android or iOS that already wouldn't have had 100 other existing similar apps, already available for some time and thus much better positioned in the app store than your new app. Think out literally ANY idea of an app and check how many existing competitors it'll have.

    It is a MYTH that you just make an app for Android or iOS and all the money is yours. On the contrary, apps of millions of developers die unnoticed. So it's not true that developers are not interested in anything but these two platforms, many of them keep looking for alternatives simply because their apps on Android or iOS don't sell, whereas on a new platform it would be much easier for them to break through and make apps that do not yet have ANY competitors.

    But in case of Android-compatible BB10 (and BlackBerry not having done absolutely anything to promote/favorize native apps) it wasn't making any sense for them to even try, because they'd have to compete with THE VERY SAME Android apps as on Android itself. That's the point.

    The LEAST BlackBerry should have done was to clearly distinguish all native apps in the store (not just the Built For BlackBerry ones, but all native apps) and favorize them (list on top) in all search results, categories, featured lists, etc. They have never done even just that. It was taking HOURS to scroll every category and search results list to find a native app buried under tons of completely useless Android junk, which was only strengthening the impression that this platform has no native apps.

    This BBW store is organized so poorly and it SUPRESSES native apps (by not distinguishing them from countless Android apps totally eclipsing them) in such an awful way that whenever my app gets featured on the home Carousel it instantly gets HUNDREDS of new downloads even though it's been available for 4 years (!) and people write in their reviews "Gosh! I was looking for an app of this kind for ages!" but they couldn't find it in that ocean of utter cr*p the BBW store is filled with. My EasyStreetView app got featured on the Carousel yesterday late evening and since then it got more downloads than over the past whole month.



    OK, so in the UK it was, but in e.g. Poland (40 million people) it wasn't, and I could easily name a dozen or two of other countries with a few billion people in total where it wan't either. It was promoted in a few (big, but still just a few) markets (US, UK, France, Germany, etc.), and not promoted anywhere else.



    Even some funny Meizu or Xiaomi could do it (make their brand and devices recognized worldwide), only BlackBerry couldn't do it, right?



    If you want to argue, maybe first read what you argue with. I did not negate Android compatibility in general, I only described its obvious negative impact on native development, which means that if a company chooses to go with Android compatibility then certain actions to protect and stimulate development of native apps are a MUST, or otherwise it'll fail as it won't be able to compete with millions of free Android apps without special support and promotion.



    That's right. Lots and lots of people who knew and owned former BBOS phones did not know that the new ones were based on a completely new OS. They thought that it was still the same BBOS. So BlackBerry didn't manage to properly inform even their existing user base.
    Look you can argue it all day - reality is that it's dead. There is no time machine.
    01-06-17 04:09 PM
  17. cbvinh's Avatar
    Look you can argue it all day - reality is that it's dead. There is no time machine.
    Yet... BlackBerry TimeMachine...

    "How far are you headed?"
    "Oh, about ten years..."

    Tim-ANC likes this.
    01-06-17 04:12 PM
  18. eshropshire's Avatar
    Absolutely!
    A great course would be at least to keep existing developers..

    Posted via CB10
    My company develops mobile apps to support our enterprise software. We did have BB10 apps. As we were planning our updates we met with BlackBerry last year. I can't reveal what they told us, but I can say we are new software will not have BB10 apps.
    01-06-17 05:20 PM
  19. BurningPlatform's Avatar
    Look you can argue it all day - reality is that it's dead. There is no time machine.
    Argue? I merely expressed my opinion. As a developer with some 17-18 apps for BB10, I do know what kind of problems I've been facing with BlackBerry for 4 years, so I simply described it. I'd rather say that it is a couple of you guys arguing with it, completely unnecessarily as I didn't expect anyone to agree, I just shared my very own point of view. And no, I didn't ever deny that it's dead now.
    01-06-17 05:23 PM
  20. eshropshire's Avatar
    That's so sad.
    Also no Android runtime update in sight - to give existing users some more freedom.

    So, I don't see any reason why that article would be a "lie" or misinformation... :/

    Posted via CB10
    BlackBerry already said there would be no more updates to the Android runtime. They made this statement to developers at the same time listing the development interfaces that would no longer receive updates. The post has been quoted and linked quite a bit on the different forums. I don't know why people still think the BlackBerry will update the runtime.
    01-06-17 05:36 PM
  21. BurningPlatform's Avatar
    Look you can argue it all day - reality is that it's dead. There is no time machine.
    Argue? I merely expressed my opinion. As a developer with some 17-18 apps for BB10, I do know what kind of problems I've been facing with BlackBerry for 4 years, so I simply described it. I'd rather say that it is a couple of you guys arguing with it, completely unnecessarily as I didn't expect anyone to agree, I just shared my very own point of view. And no, I didn't ever deny that it's dead now.

    P.S. There are incomparably more native apps for BB10 than most of you think. It's just that majority of them are buried under all that cr*p in BBW. My apps (mostly rated 5/5) sell well only when they are featured as otherwise no one can find them.

    If it was just about spending the dollars to have marketing, developer support, developer incentives, etc. then Windows Phone would be a third ecosystem, competitive with Android and iOS.
    Windows Phone was simply such a P.O.S. that even Nokia brand and their hardware (like PureView cameras) were not able to counterbalance it.
    01-06-17 05:42 PM
  22. StephanieMaks's Avatar
    This is theory, reality is different. Maybe you should talk to some average Android and iOS developers - not huge and rich companies but countless individuals.
    I'm one of those average developers. I have a handful of apps, including one that's nicely successful in a particular small niche. I don't make games, don't chase fads, I just make mostly boring utility type apps that have no appeal outside their small area of interest. I'm not getting rich, it's not even full-time money, but I make enough to cover car payments and groceries and some extras every month.

    I came to Crackberry in the fall of 2013 with the interest in bringing some of my apps to BB10. Even by then, it was already too late. The official advice from BlackBerry themselves at their dev blog was 'we support android apps, go write your app for android instead. Here's the tools if you insist on BB10 development but... seriously, go do android.' (I am paraphrasing of course.)

    It literally didn't matter to me that I could be 'among the first' in my niche in BBW - I could see the user base was too small to make it worth while, and with the company putting itself up for sale, the situation was not going to improve.

    And based on such a small potential market, an app I charge $5 for over on the Apple Store, I'd have to charge at least 10x, maybe 20x that on BBW, just to get the same return on investment of my time and effort. No-one would pay that. And I don't blame them. But that's what the situation was by late 2013.

    I did buy a Q5 to learn how the OS works, and poked around at native BB10 development but never did anything with it because I could see it wasn't worth my while.

    As mentioned, my most successful app services a niche market. With iOS, even that niche is big enough to be well worth the effort. Working with a niche within a niche, it was not feasable.

    Disclaimers: This was my experience, your mileage may vary, the plural of anecdote is not data.

    p.s. I'm not saying app discovery doesn't suck on iOS - it is absolutely brutal these days and will only continue getting worse. It didn't suck as hard in 2013 but it was still rough. And in 2009 (when I got started) it wasn't so bad. Unfortunately that still doesn't change the fact that BB10 was too little, too late, and never had the user base to compete.
    01-06-17 05:46 PM
  23. eshropshire's Avatar
    Thousands upon thousands... what number is that on a market with well over billion Android devices? Even tiny Jolla sells (and probably also gets back) "thousands upon thousands", i.e. nothing. Small sales and even smaller returns. And I dare to say that many of the returns were actually caused by small sales as people simply didn't want to have a niche product, and not because they didn't like the actual OS or device.

    As for ads, maybe it was so in your country. In lots of European countries (where a few hundred million people live) there were none whatsoever.



    Quite simply, this is yet another negative phenomenon of Android compatibility. If an Android version kind of works (usually much worse than a native app would do, but still), companies don't see it worth their time to make (and then have to maintain) a native one. But if Android version couldn't be used then they would have made a native one, like they had to do for Windows Phone.


    Worn out slogan. I am a developer, I know lots of developers. I know what I and lots of my colleagues were or were not interested in. I knew dozens of developers who moved to BB10 from Symbian and MeeGo, and I know why they eventually gave up on BB10.

    Developing for a new platform like BB10 (as long as it is not harmed by Android compatibility and therefore having to compete with millions of Android apps) can actually be MUCH MORE PROFITABLE than trying luck on any of the huge platforms, where every app you could make already has its equivalent and first you need to work your fingers to the bones to even just be noticed in that Google or iOS app store filled up with apps (of which 80% no one has ever found and downloaded even just once). Whereas, on the contrary, on a new platform people are hungry for new apps and as it is just the beginning it is much easier to make people know about you and your apps. If only you are not being permanently scared away by unbearable competition with Android apps, and native apps not being in any way favorized and promoted, that is.

    Belive me, on a new platform with 1 million users hungry for apps it is often much EASIER to have yourself discovered and therefore sell much more copies than on a platform with 1 billion users but so crowded with developers and apps that no one will even notice your and your apps' existence unless you first spend $100,000 on promoting yourself.

    I thought it's obvious, but apparently not.
    I have worked in the Tech world for over 30 years. All these items you point out had to be resolved long before BB10 ever saw the first public sale. Companies work with their developers and get support for new platforms. They work out deals with partners. All of this would needed to start in 2010 with most of it signed and sealed by no later than mid 2012. Jim and Mike are to blame and Thor is to blame. All Chen could do by Dec of 2013 was try and pick up the pieces of what was left. He had a very buggy mobile OS and a very buggy BES. Six months after Chen came in BB10 2.1 was finally released - the first really stable version of BB10. Also, in 2014 BES 12 came out, with to first really useful cross platform support. At the same time Chen had to oversee right sizing BlackBerry. The company had way too many employees vs revenue. Also, they had tons of their cash committed to inventory - both parts and unsold phones. Chen had to secure additional funding just to ensure they could keep functioning throughout 2014. Any roadmap Thor had dreamed up for BB10 Died in the summer of 2013.

    The BoD did not hire Chen to get BB10 back on track. They hired him to transform BlackBerry into an enterprise software company. If they wanted to stay with hardware the Board would have hired a CEO with hardware experience. They hired Chen who is an expert in developing enterprise software companies. Chen has always stated his goal is to transform BlackBerry into an enterprise software company. Hardware would remain if it could be profitable.
    01-06-17 05:59 PM
  24. eshropshire's Avatar
    Argue? I merely expressed my opinion. As a developer with some 17-18 apps for BB10, I do know what kind of problems I've been facing with BlackBerry for 4 years, so I simply described it. I'd rather say that it is a couple of you guys arguing with it, completely unnecessarily as I didn't expect anyone to agree, I just shared my very own point of view. And no, I didn't ever deny that it's dead now.
    I agree and understand you POV. Personally I think the problems facing BlackBerry started in 2005. The CoCOEs ( worst management arrangement ever devised) ignored tons of warning signs for years. When they finally decided to act in 2009 they were late, several years too late. Worse they completely sidetracked BB10 to develop a tablet. My guess is the playbook cost BlackBerry a year of BB10 development time. They gave some lame excuse of it helping them refine the OS. No, the co-CEOs just could not stand to see Apple be successful in the tablet space and their arrogance blinded them to seeing they had no hope of competing with Apple at the time in tablets. They took their eyes of the key target. Even if they did not do the playbook, BB10 would still be too late, but it might have been more stable allowing a more successful launch. Who knows they may have been able to secure 3-4 % of the mobile market. Enough to at least stay in the game.
    BigBadWulf and Troy Tiscareno like this.
    01-06-17 06:11 PM
  25. DecAway's Avatar
    BB10 isn't going anywhere until they can get an android device to get full NIAP certification. They bank on the security and ability of BB7 and BB10 to operate at the highest level of government agencies. These phones are typically restricted anyway, hence a bbry classic variant without a camera. Government employees, especially those relying on security don't need a phone with facebook, games or apps. They need a secure platform that allows phonecalls, texting, email and browsing - hint hint, the browser being updated. Also, no way the US, or many other governments are going to let a TCL device operate on their network. BB10 isn't going to be licensed to anyone. Will they make a new BB10 device? Maybe not... depends on their ability to harness Droid and secure it properly. Plus, why make a new BB10 device? They're lightyears better than BB7, which is still widely used in government agencies. Also, the current BB10 line up is fairly inexpensive and works really well running it's core features.

    Posted via CB10
    stlabrat likes this.
    01-06-17 09:47 PM
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