09-27-13 06:41 PM
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  1. TGR1's Avatar
    Are you kidding me? First off read again. I said bbm will be worth more. You don't think once bbms released with bbm channels that's it's going to be one of the biggest apps. if the release of bbm actually did happen we Def wouldn't be sitting at $9 a share right now.

    Posted from My all in one beauty Z10
    BBM in and of itself is worthless to BBRY without some hook and is actually a drain. It doesn't sell the handsets, it is free, and BBRY has to run its servers for a crapload of non-BB users. Unless BBM runs ads on iOS and Android or offers extra perks and features as in app purchases, BBM on any platform has a dim future.
    richardat likes this.
    09-25-13 06:01 AM
  2. abwan11's Avatar
    @michaelshaw
    Your not the only one. I posted a thread two weeks ago, with the same view, it's obvious.
    http://forums.crackberry.com/showthread.php?t=847435

    Posted via CB10
    Last edited by abwan11; 09-25-13 at 07:14 AM.
    09-25-13 06:26 AM
  3. Pete The Penguin's Avatar
    No, guys. Fairfax is only the lead in a consortium of backers. They are rolling their own 10% shares into the deal to get cash for the shares. You'll get a check. You can buy Fairfax stock after that if you want to double down.
    I have FF stock already. I wouldn't take a cheque from them for my BlackBerry shares. Well, not at 9 dollars... that's a bl00dy slap in the face...
    09-25-13 06:43 AM
  4. moosbb's Avatar
    When did it ever happen that a company writes down their entire stock of inventory when it is still in a market and trying to sell it at a high price. Z10 is selling at no less than $50 with a 2 year plan. They should have lowered it to zero with a 2 year plan 3 months ago. Even with the new release of Z30 they should have done so, but why they haven't but instead they wrote $950 million.

    Posted via CB10
    Imho to have a stack of handsets already "paid" ie they can even offer for free (to market a bit the product).

    The whole move for me is like a try to "reset" and restart:
    -No debt (for now) even positive funds.
    -Layoff a big part of people (sadly) because that was really from start too much for their capacity.
    -BES new prices very competitive to kick the few concurents there.
    -Launching a new device that can attract somme people around.
    ...

    For me, they have an alternative to the "disemboweling": Trying to come back with BB10 with more apropriate weapons with a more healthy position.
    09-25-13 06:45 AM
  5. kevinnugent's Avatar
    I have FF stock already. I wouldn't take a cheque from them for my BlackBerry shares. Well, not at 9 dollars... that's a bl00dy slap in the face...
    If there is no other offers you won't have a choice though. Oh, and if Prem Watsa lives up to his reputation, that $9 will be revised down pretty sharply after due diligence if he can get away with it, sorry.
    09-25-13 06:48 AM
  6. Pete The Penguin's Avatar
    If there is no other offers you won't have a choice though. Oh, and if Prem Watsa lives up to his reputation, that $9 will be revised down pretty sharply after due diligence if he can get away with it, sorry.
    I know... I expect Prem will write the price down to 5 dollars pretty sharpish. I don't think I have to sell... legally FF can't make me?

    What gets me is that the shareholders have been voting the same board back year on year. That stinks.
    09-25-13 06:52 AM
  7. xandermac's Avatar
    They tried this, in 2008 that strategy fell apart. Think it's smart to try it again in this "consumer" driven market? You won't see another BB phone after 2014. The only thing Fairfax will have to offer is services and no one is buying. BBM has potential but after this (remarkably shady) botched release I imagine confidence took yet another hit, I'm certainly not bothering with it now.

    No, by the end of 2014 BB will have been split up and sold for scrap. Fairfax may keep the patent portfolio which as far as i can tell is the only thing of any value and probably the driving reason for him to drive down the price and make a bid in the first place. They'll probably evolve into a Patent Troll.

    Prem's primary initiative is to make money. I'm suspecting that he will take BlackBerry private, cut the fat and focus on the enterprise solutions and take that area by storm with the security it offers. I believe handsets will still be available but I would suspect they would sub that out and be supplied by an HTC or LG and built to BlackBerry specs to run BB10. Once they have their groove going again I'll bet they either sell the business to a larger player for profit or take the company public again for a higher IPO than the purchase price.

    Posted via CB10
    09-25-13 06:55 AM
  8. textngo's Avatar
    I think going could be a great think for BlackBerry, especially since their purchaser is Canadian =)
    09-25-13 07:00 AM
  9. TGR1's Avatar
    I know... I expect Prem will write the price down to 5 dollars pretty sharpish. I don't think I have to sell... legally FF can't make me?

    What gets me is that the shareholders have been voting the same board back year on year. That stinks.
    If Watsa gets enough shareholder support that when it goes to the vote it passes, and the board subsequently approves, then yes, you are legally bound to the result of the vote, even I f that means handing over your shares for a dollar each. You can challenge the vote but unless you have someone massively powerful like the Ontario Teachers pension fund on board I wouldn't bother.
    kevinnugent likes this.
    09-25-13 07:01 AM
  10. Pete The Penguin's Avatar
    If Watsa gets enough shareholder support that when it goes to the vote it passes, and the board subsequently approves, then yes, you are legally bound to the result of the vote, even I f that means handing over your shares for a dollar each. You can challenge the vote but unless you have someone massively powerful like the Ontario Teachers pension fund on board I wouldn't bother.
    It gets worse too......

    "BlackBerry executives sell stocks on day of warning, company denies wrongdoing" - http://m.firstpost.com/tech/blackber...&utm_medium=hp

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...98N18O20130924
    Last edited by CJH_; 09-25-13 at 08:17 AM.
    09-25-13 07:04 AM
  11. kevinnugent's Avatar
    It gets worse too......

    "BlackBerry executives sell stocks on day of warning, company denies wrongdoing" - http://m.firstpost.com/tech/blackber...&utm_medium=hp
    This report is a bit of a furphy really. Normal trust sales to pay the tax owing. Just excruciating timing.
    09-25-13 07:15 AM
  12. trsbbs's Avatar
    And why do you suppose the announcement was made?...do you guys actually think these people are stupid? Reading through these threads to see what the bar-stool prophets have to say is certainly amusing, if they actually had a clue they wouldn't be wasting time speculating on this forum
    Then why are you in this thread? Why did you feel you had to comment? If we are so inferior why do you speak to us?


    You sure your not snotty Mike L?Sounds like the same arrogance.


    Posted via CB10 on my Verizon Z10. 10.2.0.1725
    CHIP72 likes this.
    09-25-13 07:25 AM
  13. kevinnugent's Avatar
    I just tried to explain the machinations of the past few days, and the subsequent offer to my wife who knows next to nothing about business. After thinking for a minute, she exclaimed "gee, someone's going to make a LOT of money out of this deal!" From the mouths of babes.
    TGR1 likes this.
    09-25-13 07:29 AM
  14. Pete The Penguin's Avatar
    This report is a bit of a furphy really. Normal trust sales to pay the tax owing. Just excruciating timing.
    Right before the warning? Smells fishy.
    09-25-13 08:18 AM
  15. xandermac's Avatar
    Right before the warning? Smells fishy.
    Everything about this deal is fishy!. A lot of scrutiny coming their way.

    http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/61...en-in-waterloo
    09-25-13 08:41 AM
  16. JasW's Avatar
    They tried this, in 2008 that strategy fell apart. Think it's smart to try it again in this "consumer" driven market? You won't see another BB phone after 2014. The only thing Fairfax will have to offer is services and no one is buying. BBM has potential but after this (remarkably shady) botched release I imagine confidence took yet another hit, I'm certainly not bothering with it now.

    No, by the end of 2014 BB will have been split up and sold for scrap. Fairfax may keep the patent portfolio which as far as i can tell is the only thing of any value and probably the driving reason for him to drive down the price and make a bid in the first place. They'll probably evolve into a Patent Troll.
    I think there's some value in the enterprise end, at least with services and software. Handsets, no. (In fact, I could see that unless there were some binding obligation that forces them to do so, no more handsets will be produced after the Z30.) The value of the patents is unclear due to the patent market not being what it once was and the fact that some of the more significant patents are co-owned by MS and Apple.
    09-25-13 08:43 AM
  17. Pete The Penguin's Avatar
    Everything about this deal is fishy!. A lot of scrutiny coming their way.

    http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/61...en-in-waterloo
    I hope BlackBerry get scrutinised to heck and back... I call collusion at the very least.
    09-25-13 08:50 AM
  18. fatkiid's Avatar
    Right before the warning? Smells fishy.
    You've obviously never worked for a company that gave you RSUs on a vesting schedule. This is automatic and done at the vesting dates to cover income tax. ie. the individual doesn't see that portion of the money, it's paid to the government.
    09-25-13 09:38 AM
  19. M65c02's Avatar
    BlackBerry should have had more people in the trenches. The release of the z10 should have come with a lot more fanfare. There are too many prejudices against BlackBerry. Even when I purchased purchased the z10 on its release date, the young sales person did everything possible to talk me out of it stating that BlackBerry was going out of business. This was back in March, and it wasn't the first time I heard that tumor.
    Well put and almost exactly right--even if one possible slip: Tumor rather than rumor may indeed be more descriptive here. BUT, I think that it was easy to see back then and verified during this past summer, and especially the last few weeks, that BB recommendations should have been avoided by salespeople. ... BB was going down by the head. You have to understand also that the typical sales person actually does know more about BB's future than the typical BB owner, or prospect. The sales person had the benefit of the knowledge from corporate to not recommend but also an inability to pick up a Z phone and have it both reliable and fun to sell. No beautiful screen, no discernible new features save the hub, not even great brochures, etc. If not, then all wise distributors realized the potential legal liability for a vendor that had its sales people pushing a company that was to be sold. Yes, one may also attempt to argue about "chicken or egg" and "self-fulfilling prophecy" scenarios but, in the end, the salespeople were/are right not to push BB. It's basic business: BB knew it was probably terminal with a tumor and was fighting an uphill battle but appeared to put out a minimal effort. [... Ahhh, but was that the plan all along within BB ... that may be the real question here.]

    However, let's also get some other facts straight, OS10 was a disaster when it was introduced, reboots, communication protocol/interface problems, battery gobbling inefficiencies, contacts integration, constant problems with email updates/multi-platform integration, etc., etc. Okay, an "A" for effort but this is business, not a University, and the competition wasn't supposed to be legacy BB devices but IOS, Droid, and W8. It's really that simple: At best, BB fell too far behind and could never catch up. .

    The Zeds and OS10 were not superior to other products and, so, had no place to fly in the marketplace . . . notwithstanding that anyone having used the Curve, and even the bold, could see that the Z/OS10 couldn't even handle the rudimentary (by today's stds.) functions that the 8900 did with (nearly) flawless perfection. There was simply no way the Zed could be used as a strong, reliable tool for business, at least at intro, and that's when the Z had to fly. It simply wasn't a tool, but it also wasn't a social media toy, wasn't even a great camera. SO, other than a long awaited replacement for some legacy users (myself included) that presumed more from their OS10, exactly where did BB think it was going with OS10. Only after 10.1, and really a 10.2 leak, have the OS10 phones become reliable--although these leaks remain without complete carrier interface for these critical patches/revs. Sure the Z/Q are unique toys, but how does BB expect to sell 20mm toys, or tools, without a well defined and targeted consumer?

    There should have been no delusions of any immediate future grandeur for BB, at least not after the end of 2011. Realistically, we were only hopeful that BB might somehow survive as an independent company while gradually building back its credibility! Ahhh, again, but was the plan to sell the company all along in 2013 !?!

    I fear announcing the take over bid has damaged public moral for BlackBerry. I still think it's a great product but it hasn't been marketed properly. . . . This perception has to change. I know they want the corporate contracts and buys from organization's and government s but they have totally failed to push their products in many countries and in some cases continents. It's not a case of bad products but rather brilliant products with bad marketing focus and strategy. . . . Hopefully BlackBerry won't become another case study in organizational suicide in slow measures.
    The highlighted phrase certainly has to be nominated for understatement of the year. I think that the perception now is permanent, it's simply a matter of carving a niche market (god only knows what) and/or selling off some assets. But that will be up to the new owner. ... Hey, when do we start advising Fairfax.
    BB has no target marketing and no device suitable for a narrowly defined target market--save a few conversions from BB legacies to the Q. BB has become a copy of a lesson repeated many, many times in business organizations and/or product marketing.

    IMO opportunities to build corporate and media partnerships were missed. Z10 smartphones should have been given away to every high profile entertainer . . . .
    Correct, but BB was too arrogant to believe that they had to rebuild their reputation from the bottom. On the other hand, BB has never had a great PR function and even during their best days, I felt they could have captured even more than the 60+% of the market they once had. [/QUOTE]

    We live in a world of sheep, where everyone follows the herd. A world where one iPhone rings and 100 people reach for their own. Lemmings might be a better word. We live in a world of lemmings.
    Yep, there's safety in numbers, or so people think ! ... As long as they have a roof, clothes, and food, the masses will do as they are told. (Note: We used to include job in this list.)

    If you really want to think about something that should make you realize how insignificant your losses are, 5 years ago RIMM was worth ~$140 a share. Think about the folks who held on. Now they'll get $9 per share!!
    Holding on with emotion and to the hope that the industry would grow and surely drag the iconic BB with it. But history repeats itself. Ironically, BB was like Apple where stock prices are concerned. Grossly overpriced stock that ran up on the hysteria from both institutions and individual investors only to crash to its real value--but that's where the comparison ends. There has been no play on BB since the $100...only speculation to play with the burps as BB collapsed over time. Unlike Apple that has gone through this run-up a few times, BB didn't have the resiliency to re-emerge with a second idea.

    if you think bbm is worth 4.7 million dollars alone, i don't think anyone will be taking you seriously about anything ever again. . . . people know what [BBM] does and what it is. . . . you think that since the cash flow from bb10 is so large (it isn't, it's in the hole over a billion+) that bbm will somehow generate revenue? (also it won't, it's offered free) and that BlackBerry is going private because they're expecting hoards of new subscribers and want all the money to themselves? This has to be a joke !.
    No arguments here. It is the cash flows or, more correctly, the free cash generated that is of importance. For BB, this is nil, squat, zappo and is not forecast to be positive (from operations) for some time, if ever. One last time, until BB can show it sells 20mm OS10 phones per year, it will be a side show, an albatros around the neck of whomever buys it -- unless they can sell the parts off first. And, look for more companies that were contractually, or emotionally, tied to BB to abandon ship now than to jump aboard--at least in the next year or two. In some cases, the CIO's job will be on the line. Ho hum, the same history as we saw repeat with mainframes, and minis, and even some desktops....another generation, the same errors.

    [BTW, Just kidding about the last time, I'll keep reminding of this basic concept.]

    I believe all minor shareholders should assemble into one, try to bring Mike Lazaridis and refuse the sale.
    If we become over 50% of shareholders then we change all board of directors including Heinz for the foul play with Watsa, bring new inventors as directors from different companies such as Google, Apple, etc... and we will have a great company within 2 years and stock will shoot to $50. . . . Let's do that and give us ideas how to start including all shareholders that feel cheated.
    Sounds like a good idea, bring your pitch forks and lanterns too. Then lets watch the stock drop to $8 overnight and float on down to $5. If you think sales were slow this summer, wait until this Fall when every corporate CIO that bought into remaining with BB will have to write a memo explaining their position on BB and their contingency plan(s). . . . Sometimes history repeating itself is so painful to watch.
    You're being too emotional, and not logical given both the financial circumstances of BB and the sorry state of OS10 phones foreclosing a remedy.

    To those that may not understand, sell your BB stock when you can. Don't wait around for the dream of another blip or winning the lottery, BB is sold...maybe it will finalize as high as $10.50, maybe only $8.50 in the end, but if you weren't convinced the game was over July 1 (or even April 1) and held BB shares for other than pure speculative play, be sure now that its gone. And to soothe a few of you, your rights will be protected as shareholders of record if some (foolish) institutional investor down-the-line should convince an atty to pursue on contingency a derivative action suit that, in the end, will yield ego gratification and 25cents net per share.

    When did it ever happen that a company writes down their entire stock of inventory when it is still in a market and trying to sell it at a high price. Z10 is selling at no less than $50 with a 2 year plan. They should have lowered it to zero with a 2 year plan 3 months ago. Even with the new release of Z30 they should have done so, but why they haven't but instead they wrote $950 million.
    Actually I've always been a bit confused on this issue. There were vendors giving away the Z with a two year contract as early as mid-June, and for $50 in May. It was clear, however, that BB would never reach anywhere near 10mm OS10 units sold in 2013, let alone the 20mm that they need(ed) to call OS10 a success--not to mention survive. We spoke on this forum when it became clear to some in April that the Zed couldn't compete at the same price point as Apple and the Samsung, that perhaps BB should dump their OS10 phones at a wash just to get it in people's hands. Alas, BB didn't listen to the sound advice of CB bloggers. With specific regard to the write-down, some inventory had been distributed to carriers that were on the hook for their own costs.

    The question is whether you'd want a phone that's only for enterprise and security markets. There's no point to social apps or games. Enterprises make their own wares, which will be inaccessible to you. Security phones will have the very basic features - maybe not even a camera if the company is a high security facility.
    Okay, so then we have a secure Nokia (sans camera) in a bottle. Well, theoretically (I suppose) BB could wholly reposition itself in the marketplace and re-emerge 3 years for now with some sort of niche .... I guess. But for the Prem "I know and love", I don't think that this will fly (see below).

    Prem Watsa doesn't buy company's to break 'em up. Hope BBRY won't be the first....
    I'm not sure where you are coming from here. There's been a lot of down and dirty stuff come from the Fairfax boiler room over the years. Still, Prem may have a unique personal/ego interest in BB and certainly the financial prominence to make a real go of things.

    Here's how reality works: If BBM did get released and somehow gave the company more worth (it wouldn't as it generates 0 revenue) then the deal probably wouldn't even have happened. You do realize that by BlackBerry going private, that doesn't mean the people currently making money decisions and raking in the money that isn't really there but you seem to think it is, might not be after the deal right? If BBM released and it got download 10 million times, it STILL wouldn't generate revenue for BlackBerry or increase their worth / stock / valuation. What you don't seem to be comprehending is that the bid for the company is the only bid, and it's extremely low. If BBM failing to launch had a negative impact and lowered the valuation, it benefitted a lot of people at BlackBerry because now there's a bid on the table. So no, basically everything you've said is very very wrong.
    95% good and very true analysis. And, I definitely concur with your comments on BBM and revenue flow. The bid, however, is spot on for the reasons you mentioned: It is a low bid. As mentioned this past summer, this is a $9-10 company that with no cognizable cogent plan--other than perhaps to sell itself--should have been sold sooner rather than later. After release of June financials, such sale was projected to be concurrent with release of Sept financials--and mostly confirmed by BB's announcement on strategic alternatives. Everything happened exactly (more or less) as expected and forecast right down to the offer price. (We won't quibble over a dollar, maybe this beast will round up to $10 but don't hold your breath.)

    The trend for BB was down and the cliff is/was near ... everyone knew this no later than June and the only reason to hold BB stock was as a pure speculative play hoping that the Canadian govt, or some foolish investment banker, would plunk down a temporary support to let the share prices blip to $12. Once the institutional investors were out of BB--and especially after many took severe losses, they weren't coming back anytime soon.

    I think you are confusing a free market with capitalism. . . . A true free market would not allow for bailouts of any private entity with public dollars. The US and Canada have both done this. Yes I realise the arguement is "well those corporations couldn't fail because they employ so many and they are needed". Well guess what? That's not what a true FREE market is. So if you want to use the US as an example of a free market then you have a different definition of what that is. The US is Capitalism at its finest...not a free market.
    Yes, the U.S. is capitalism but not at its finest and has been way down the global rankings for free market (and freedom) for years. And, it is the lack of the free market or, maybe more correctly, the interference of government in subsidizing certain industries/companies that causes great disturbances in the balance of the U.S. economy and principles of democracy.

    Considering the media assume Prem hasn't a clue about tech company's, I can see how BlackBerry could fit into this. It's interesting you mention Rogers too, something my broker said look out for.
    Time will tell...
    This was not a spontaneous or impulse type offer unlike some other unlikely Fairfax encounters. And, to be sure, there is at least a small Canadian angle here--though I'm not sure that such is a long term plus. Let's hope that the transaction goes quickly and smoothly with a minimum amount of press. There can be no good press coverage for this BB sale, only bad. If the transition of ownership is smooth and if Prem wants to make a go of the smart phone industry rather than pump some life and hope to sell BB assets to another tech company, then BB might crawl from under the collapsed building. BB would need a worldwide marketing blitz, revamp/rethink its sales/distribution network, provide customer incentives/guarantees, then take down the backlog on OS10 problems in the next 12 months to survive as a fully integrated smart phone company--okay $2B for these change. Even possibly prior to closure of the sale, however, the biggest sign/clue to the future of BB will come with announcements of changes in BB management. The background and caliber of such changes will tell all.

    Nah,,,,this is still an investment play pure and simple. Strip some assets today while there is still value, stabilize anything else within BB that can make money, then pump up that valuation to dump in 3-4 years max for 3-4x profit.
    Last edited by M65c02; 09-27-13 at 10:28 AM.
    kevinnugent likes this.
    09-25-13 09:44 AM
  20. Pete The Penguin's Avatar
    You've obviously never worked for a company that gave you RSUs on a vesting schedule. This is automatic and done at the vesting dates to cover income tax. ie. the individual doesn't see that portion of the money, it's paid to the government.
    Whether I've worked for a company that gives RSU's or not, Canadian Regulators need to investigate for any wrongdoing.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...98N18O20130924
    09-25-13 11:32 AM
  21. birdman_38's Avatar
    This will turn out to be a well scrutinized deal... as well it should.
    09-25-13 11:33 AM
  22. sentimentGX4's Avatar
    You've obviously never worked for a company that gave you RSUs on a vesting schedule. This is automatic and done at the vesting dates to cover income tax. ie. the individual doesn't see that portion of the money, it's paid to the government.
    If the RSU sell date is known, then Heins could easily just plan to make the announcement after the date. A set sell date does not invalidate the accusations of fraud. (Though, I'm not implying that there was fraud.)
    09-25-13 11:53 AM
  23. Hilman76's Avatar
    When did it ever happen that a company writes down their entire stock of inventory when it is still in a market and trying to sell it at a high price. Z10 is selling at no less than $50 with a 2 year plan. They should have lowered it to zero with a 2 year plan 3 months ago. Even with the new release of Z30 they should have done so, but why they haven't but instead they wrote $950 million.

    Posted via CB10
    It has been $0 at TELUS on a 2 year plan for a month or so (the Q10 is $79).
    09-25-13 11:59 AM
  24. FSeverino's Avatar
    I know... I expect Prem will write the price down to 5 dollars pretty sharpish. I don't think I have to sell... legally FF can't make me?

    What gets me is that the shareholders have been voting the same board back year on year. That stinks.
    If majority votes yes then it is in the companies best interest to sell. As a shareholder you have to abide by the highest percentage of a vote, if one option reaches a 'consensus' percentage '

    Especially if the company goes private, because there would be no stock to trade.

    Posted via CB10
    09-25-13 04:11 PM
  25. bumpy510's Avatar
    Blackberry is a great product with bad business men and marketing that's why it's up for sale the people are not true believers in the product they should be burned at the steak in front of all the blackberry end users for screwing things up
    BlackBerry Stock Halted, Fairfax Bid for 4.7 Billion on the table-img_20130328_00114419.jpg

    Posted via CB10
    09-25-13 06:50 PM
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