09-27-13 06:41 PM
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  1. onvisa's Avatar
    $9 per share is to low. it should just under $13.
    09-24-13 10:51 AM
  2. angad7.10's Avatar
    I find it extremely co-incidental that the BBM launch had 'technical issues' right before the Watsa/Fairfax announcement...
    09-24-13 10:58 AM
  3. scribacco's Avatar
    So what happens if they can't actually get together the money to do this and nobody else bids?
    Fairfax gets $157 millions from Blackberry if the deal does not go through.
    09-24-13 10:58 AM
  4. birdman_38's Avatar
    Fairfax gets $157 million from Blackberry if the deal does not go through.
    I understand that happens only if BlackBerry declines the offer in favor of something else.
    FSeverino likes this.
    09-24-13 11:05 AM
  5. Ray III's Avatar
    Nine dollars. Glad I did not invest in BBRY when I saw how the BB10 phones sucked.
    09-24-13 11:14 AM
  6. playpen007's Avatar
    I wish FairFax never have this stupid offer. 9? Just BlackBerry cash alone can pay for itself. He is ripping off shareholders. The people that benefit the most from this deal is Thorstein Heins and Fairfax itself. When they take the company private, the only people who benefit from this are the private institutions while retail investors/shareholders get rip off. It should be at least 15 dollars. I wish they leave BlackBerry alone because it has a chance to survive by itself. They have already have the best BB10 but the problem is the BlackBerry management team. They don't know how to market their products. If they replace the whole BlackBerry team or hire the best marketing teams and pay to get some best apps that consumer must have, they can survive easy. I'm not self-center, but I have to look after my investment as well. This is just stupid deal to go private. It doesn't solve any problems they have just to get away from the public eyes.
    09-24-13 11:20 AM
  7. M65c02's Avatar
    not even for the 2 Billion that it would essentially cost them? even if they bring the bid to 5.5, they are getting 2.6b in cash... I ahvent looked into the nokia deal or ms finances. but i still think that any company that is even interested in the patents alone NEEDS to bid at anything under 7. with 2.6 in cash you are looking at 7.5b meaning 5b out of pocket, and that is for all the patents, bes, bbm and the hardware side (which, although many people are going to say is worthless MS may want the factories themselves to retool for their purposes)

    obviously im not sure on MSs stance... but, to me, 7.5 on BB seems a better bid than nokia... if only for the cash that comes with all the rest
    The Fairfax value is spot on at $4.7B, maybe even a bit to the high side. BTW, this is nearly the exact figure reported even in CB a week or two ago. Even as BB likely will be frozen for the next two months--no sales, minimized expenses, no marketing/advertising, they will still go through their cash and be under $2B before this deal closes. [Let's see what the actual qtrly financials report on Friday.] All of this is not to say that an arbitrager won't throw his hat in the ring to speculate purely for a couple points.

    It is not cash today, or cash and neg. securities on hand today, that is of extreme importance. Unless condoning a straight liquidation where a BB buyer might find $2B if they locked the doors tomorrow/day of close (at least $500mm realistically spent in any run-off), it is the generation of free cash or, alternatively, the drain rate of cash on hand that is paramount. The BB cash position(s) has been trending negative and with ongoing operations forecast to remain in the hole for the foreseeable future, the cash will be gone sooner than you might think.

    There simply is no future BB without 20mm OS10 units sold (at a reasonable profit) per year--and BB wont even get to 10mm over 2 years. Anything less is going to bleed cash directly or, indirectly, by having to cut service and/or R&D for the next generation of phones. This would leave BB simply to be carved and sold off--maybe leaving a small division to service old product for a small profit might make sense.

    Too late for MSFT now. It is not going to get involved with the Canucks except maybe if the Canadian Govt whispers into its ears. And, it's too complicated to move BB out of Canada so MS would want a guarantee--or really cheap price. The BB cash on hand means nothing, MSFT wants to chew off 15% of the market by 2015 not flip an investment. ...Yes, a few patents might help MSFT but I wouldn't look for MSFT to be touting dual OS and a third/fourth phone. It already has both Nokia and HTC making phones for W8.

    Notwithstanding, I would think that we'll hear some grumblings from another entity before a final closing with Fairfax but it would serve no purpose to announce such interest--now after Fairfax--prior to release of actual BB statements later this week. Keep in mind, however, that a little more talk by other potential buyers may add some marginal returns to shareholders pockets but, with a more/less distress sale, BB will continue to lose sales with any further uncertainty conveyed to consumers.

    [Note: For example, a company is hard pressed to justify a decision to purchase BB phones when BB's very ownership is in question. Likewise, a carrier can't refer a client to BB not knowing what BB will look like a month from now--or not knowing if BB will even still be selling phones in 2014.]
    09-24-13 11:26 AM
  8. JasW's Avatar
    I understand that happens only if BlackBerry declines the offer in favor of something else.
    BBRY would have to pay $157 million whether it accepts another offer or whether it merely walks away from the deal. It can still walk away after the deal is signed, but in that case it would owe Fairfax $262 million instead of $157 million.

    Also note that Fairfax is apparently not bound to the $9 per share offer -- it can presumably lower the offer after due diligence.
    kevinnugent likes this.
    09-24-13 11:29 AM
  9. playpen007's Avatar
    I understand that happens only if BlackBerry declines the offer in favor of something else.
    I believed BlackBerry has already agreed to the deal. Yes, for some reasons BlackBerry back out, it owes Fairfax 157 millions. Anyway, Fairfax still has to come up with the funds with some others banks/mutual funds to fund this deal. If for some reasons, Fairfax fail to come up with the funds to take the company go private, it can just walk away without any obligation I believe. One scenario, it could be Fairfax try to do this deal to stop the stock price from falling further.
    09-24-13 11:35 AM
  10. xandermac's Avatar
    Yeah, you don't think it was his intention to drive the stock lower in order to even make this deal? I see a lot of scrutiny coming over the events surrounding this fiasco. Watsa sits on the BB board and presides over it's downfall. Exits last month. A sudden pre-earnings report that crashes the stock further, then a deal to purchase 3 days later @ $9!... Very shady indeed.

    I believed BlackBerry has already agreed to the deal. Yes, for some reasons BlackBerry back out, it owes Fairfax 157 millions. Anyway, Fairfax still has to come up with the funds with some others banks/mutual funds to fund this deal. If for some reasons, Fairfax fail to come up with the funds to take the company go private, it can just walk away without any obligation I believe. One scenario, it could be Fairfax try to do this deal to stop the stock price from falling further.
    playpen007 likes this.
    09-24-13 11:45 AM
  11. moretreelessbush's Avatar
    FairFax is a very poor fit, BBRY needs to find someone who has not only a deep pocket, but also resource and expertise.in technology / marketing / retails, etc.
    09-24-13 12:06 PM
  12. birdman_38's Avatar
    FairFax is a very poor fit, BBRY needs to find someone who has not only a deep pocket, but also resource and expertise.in technology / marketing / retails, etc.
    Yeah, selling to an insurance company doesn't exactly instill confidence BlackBerry will become a driving force
    09-24-13 12:18 PM
  13. drdata1967's Avatar
    I wonder if this will cause them to re-think releasing the cross platform version of BBM and have them hold the technology as solely a BB product so that it's valued as more specific to BBRY when they try and sell it off.
    09-24-13 12:19 PM
  14. katiepea's Avatar
    anyone thinking this whole situation seems weird or "fishy" have a look at this.
    Nokia Admits Giving Misleading Information About Elop's Compensation - Forbes
    09-24-13 12:48 PM
  15. BoldPreza's Avatar
    If I were Heins, I would be embarrassed by that offer.
    He did what he was supposed to do. I really think this was purposely done.

    Posted via CB10
    09-24-13 12:58 PM
  16. Fuzzballz's Avatar
    Keep in mind that if the deal falls through the stock will drop to ~$5-6 and stay there. So shmucks who own BBRY stock should be praying that they get their $9.

    But Watsa would lose so much money if that happened that he'll sell both his kidneys to get it financed.
    sentimentGX4 likes this.
    09-24-13 01:03 PM
  17. ankush77's Avatar
    don't want the company to be broken into pieces ,mater piece is only known as one due to its integration of good things
    09-24-13 01:04 PM
  18. bhavi_jp's Avatar
    BBRY would have to pay $157 million whether it accepts another offer or whether it merely walks away from the deal. It can still walk away after the deal is signed, but in that case it would owe Fairfax $262 million instead of $157 million.

    Also note that Fairfax is apparently not bound to the $9 per share offer -- it can presumably lower the offer after due diligence.
    This can become a reality if no one else makes a bid.
    09-24-13 01:07 PM
  19. FSeverino's Avatar
    The Fairfax value is spot on at $4.7B, maybe even a bit to the high side. BTW, this is nearly the exact figure reported even in CB a week or two ago. Even as BB likely will be frozen for the next two months--no sales, minimized expenses, no marketing/advertising, they will still go through their cash and be under $2B before this deal closes. [Let's see what the actual qtrly financials report on Friday.] All of this is not to say that an arbitrager won't throw his hat in the ring to speculate purely for a couple points.

    It is not cash today, or cash and neg. securities on hand today, that is of extreme importance. Unless condoning a straight liquidation where a BB buyer might find $2B if they locked the doors tomorrow/day of close (at least $500mm realistically spent in any run-off), it is the generation of free cash or, alternatively, the drain rate of cash on hand that is paramount. The BB cash position(s) has been trending negative and with ongoing operations forecast to remain in the hole for the foreseeable future, the cash will be gone sooner than you might think.

    There simply is no future BB without 20mm OS10 units sold (at a reasonable profit) per year--and BB wont even get to 10mm over 2 years. Anything less is going to bleed cash directly or, indirectly, by having to cut service and/or R&D for the next generation of phones. This would leave BB simply to be carved and sold off--maybe leaving a small division to service old product for a small profit might make sense.

    Too late for MSFT now. It is not going to get involved with the Canucks except maybe if the Canadian Govt whispers into its ears. And, it's too complicated to move BB out of Canada so MS would want a guarantee--or really cheap price. The BB cash on hand means nothing, MSFT wants to chew off 15% of the market by 2015 not flip an investment. ...Yes, a few patents might help MSFT but I wouldn't look for MSFT to be touting dual OS and a third/fourth phone. It already has both Nokia and HTC making phones for W8.

    Notwithstanding, I would think that we'll hear some grumblings from another entity before a final closing with Fairfax but it would serve no purpose to announce such interest--now after Fairfax--prior to release of actual BB statements later this week. Keep in mind, however, that a little more talk by other potential buyers may add some marginal returns to shareholders pockets but, with a more/less distress sale, BB will continue to lose sales with any further uncertainty conveyed to consumers.

    [Note: For example, a company is hard pressed to justify a decision to purchase BB phones when BB's very ownership is in question. Likewise, a carrier can't refer a client to BB not knowing what BB will look like a month from now--or not knowing if BB will even still be selling phones in 2014.]
    I would agree about the cash burn in the next 6 weeks, I actually think that is a key point in the deal. Fairfax wants that to hit 2b and I'm pretty sure the $9 is based on a lower cash reserve in 2 months

    Posted via CB10
    09-24-13 01:09 PM
  20. henrickrw's Avatar
    Whatsoever is good for the enterprise is supported from my side.

    Best wishes BlackBerry

    Posted via CB10
    Rui Jorge likes this.
    09-24-13 01:40 PM
  21. n8ter#AC's Avatar
    We will have consumer phones. It just won't be marketed like one. I'm worried about the app ecosystem if this happens. It might never grow again...

    Posted via CB10
    Again?
    09-24-13 01:46 PM
  22. bfotch's Avatar
    If they keep it private and all together, as a customer and loyal fan I am happy. I believe blackberry will come up and they can still make money as a "niche" market. They just have to adjust their financials. It doesn't have to be the #1 phone, it just has to make money.
    09-24-13 01:53 PM
  23. cbvinh's Avatar
    If they keep it private and all together, as a customer and loyal fan I am happy. I believe blackberry will come up and they can still make money as a "niche" market. They just have to adjust their financials. It doesn't have to be the #1 phone, it just has to make money.
    True, but if you're a consumer, you probably won't have access to the phones anymore. The "niche" will be in enterprise and security.
    09-24-13 01:58 PM
  24. Dave Bourque's Avatar
    True, but if you're a consumer, you probably won't have access to the phones anymore. The "niche" will be in enterprise and security.
    That's not true. The phones will be available to consumers. But marketed to prosumers.

    Posted via CB10
    09-24-13 02:00 PM
  25. mikeo007's Avatar
    That's not true. The phones will be available to consumers. But marketed to prosumers.

    Posted via CB10
    Hear that from your inside sources Davey? Or did you pull if from your usual place, where the "sun don't shine"?
    kevinnugent, xandermac and JeepBB like this.
    09-24-13 02:01 PM
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