09-27-13 06:41 PM
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  1. richardat's Avatar
    is the answer "nine million sold in a weekend?" or "broken up by the asset strippers?" - I think it's one or the other, maybe both?
    LOL....no it has to be a trick question....let's see....a company openly on death's door publicly fatally (so it had to be withdrawn) botching the one consumer based pie-in-the-sky hope remaining......or......one of the wealthiest companies in the world having an overlooked flaw in the iphone which doesn't affect it's functionality, can easily be patched, and was only an extra icing on the cake feature in the first place..... HAS TO BE A TRICK......
    09-23-13 11:00 PM
  2. richardat's Avatar
    You know, just thinking about this for a minute, Microsoft may think this is very cheap. Consider this. They bid $4.8bn. They get 2.6bn in cash straight back, the NOC, Enterprise everything..... They pee that amount every week. This bid may draw them out.
    I do think it's possible, in essence, you can get the company for about 2bil. Somebody else can come in and get it..... essentially the super final sale price sticker is now on the company. Naturally however,rather unlikely anyone will suddenly be offering 14$ lol......

    The Watsa bid may indeed be partially intended to push a quick sale, and also if he gets stuck with it, to extract his money - which is quite plausible at this price. Frankly, he can finance the small price, and then look at offers for the pieces....he can take those, or, now that the company has been eviscerated (and he can do so even more), live off the remnants of bb7, while seeing if small efforts in services, enterprise and software pan out.

    Either way, BB will not exist in anything like the form we knew it as - a prediction I made long ago. If you're not an investor - this is the relevant part to you.

    It's a great play for Prem, and he's done it well. If you are an investor - congratulations, all but a tiny handful of you who bought at an even lower average price have in essence given Prem and Thor your money.

    Recall the heady days of: I'm in, because Prem Watsa is in, and he's a smart guy, and he said it's worth at least 40$, and that's where we're going! GO PREM!" Well, Prem ain't your friend, and this isn't about him "believing" in bb10.
    09-23-13 11:16 PM
  3. Bobby Nweze's Avatar
    Don't make this a comparison with Apple. Remember, while BBRY was agreeing in principle to a sell itself at $4.7 billion, Apple was selling $5.4 billion in iPhones in just three days.
    I don't damn care if blackberry is acquired for $4.7 billion or Apple sells $5.4 billion iPhones in 3 days. Neither puts food on my table, I just want a bloody secure phone. THAT'S ALL!!

    Oh! I want BBM on Android too 😬


    Sent from my iPhone using CB Forums mobile app
    09-23-13 11:21 PM
  4. richardat's Avatar
    Other than taking a really silly shot at MSFT, what was your point?
    Heh, I believe he's thinking that MS is waiting at the checkout lane with their milk, eggs, and sausages, and they see "deal of the day" at the till.....BB: product discontinued sale.....9$.........and they'll say "yeah sure...why not....even if we don't use it, it's a good deal".

    Of course even for a lowly few bil. one would expect a certain dilligence from any buyer even the bigshots of the world.....but there is some truth to it, the price is so low that, upon number crunching, it could work. Along with the cash, one may be able to milk bb7 for a while, eliminate most of the company.....see if BES or BBM are viable.....file the patents away......
    notfanboy likes this.
    09-23-13 11:28 PM
  5. richardat's Avatar
    I don't damn care if blackberry is acquired for $4.7 billion or Apple sells $5.4 billion iPhones in 3 days. Neither puts food on my table, I just want a bloody secure phone. THAT'S ALL!!

    Oh! I want BBM on Android too


    Sent from my iPhone using CB Forums mobile app
    Your phone will become increasingly insecure if it's not updated and patched regularly. If it falls behind carrier and industry standards. On the positive side, if your phone lines are dropped, nobody will really care anymore. Doubt there are many hackers or government agencies puting effort into WebOS at the moment.
    danprown likes this.
    09-23-13 11:31 PM
  6. kevinnugent's Avatar
    Heh, I believe he's thinking that MS is waiting at the checkout lane with their milk, eggs, and sausages, and they see "deal of the day" at the till.....BB: product discontinued sale.....9$.........and they'll say "yeah sure...why not....even if we don't use it, it's a good deal".

    Of course even for a lowly few bil. one would expect a certain dilligence from any buyer even the bigshots of the world.....but there is some truth to it, the price is so low that, upon number crunching, it could work. Along with the cash, one may be able to milk bb7 for a while, eliminate most of the company.....see if BES or BBM are viable.....file the patents away......
    Funnier things have happened. This wouldn't be a blip for Microsoft. Might tie in nicely with the Nokia handset business.
    09-24-13 12:18 AM
  7. cbvinh's Avatar
    Stupid question, but can I get shares of Fairfax instead of money for my BlackBerry shares? A way of avoiding the transaction fee of buying Fairfax shares after getting the money from the sale.
    It's a group of investors lead by Fairfax, so not all the buyout money will come from Fairfax; thus, it's not likely you can get Fairfax stock. Fairfax is "donating" its shares as part of the deal. They're not putting up any cash. The other investors would be putting up cash to buy you out.
    09-24-13 12:19 AM
  8. cbvinh's Avatar
    Other than taking a really silly shot at MSFT, what was your point?
    The previous poster suggested that MS has so much cash that they could buy BlackBerry and phrased it as "peeing money every week". I agreed. MS wrote down $900 million in Surface RT hardware and it was just a blip to them. BlackBerry, in contrast, wrote down $950 million in phones and it definitely can't be a blip to BlackBerry.

    In short, I was agreeing with the poster. MS has a ton of money to "pee" away.
    09-24-13 02:25 AM
  9. bobshine's Avatar
    I tried to read through the whole thread, but couldn't take it after page 7. The amount of misinformation and absurd speculation coming from the believers is laughable

    Prem Watsa is underwater on his BBRY position. His acquisition of the company is an effort to avoid booking a big loss on his position (10% of the shares at a cost basis around $17). That's it. Prem watsa has zero interest interest in getting Fairfax into the cell phone business or any other business in which BBRY could conceivably participate given its intellectual property portfolio. It's unreal that so many of the ridiculous fanboys here don't get this. Watsa is a money manager. He'll be paying big time interest on the money he borrows to make this buyout. The firm he buys is bleeding cash and he would be the one writing the cheques. He wants the whole thing wrapped up as soon as humanly possible.

    Just a few more points...

    Today, given the huge liability that the handset division represents? Absolutely no question about it - it's more valuable broken up.



    Fairfax are absolutely not 'there to provide capital to BBRY'. This doesn't even make sense. If this goes through, it does not guarantee the survival of BBRY in any way.
    Yeah they are providing capital to BlackBerry. How the hell is BlackBerry able to go private if they aren't providing capital? I know they may not be taking money out of their pocket, but they did create a consortium of buyers!

    Posted via CB10
    09-24-13 05:48 AM
  10. JasW's Avatar
    Yeah they are providing capital to BlackBerry. How the hell is BlackBerry able to go private if they aren't providing capital? I know they may not be taking money out of their pocket, but they did create a consortium of buyers!

    Posted via CB10
    Buyers hoping to get financing, the same way us regular folks get financing to buy a house. The financing will have to cover the spread between whatever cash BBRY has left and the $4.7 billion purchase price.

    And just as a reminder, while everyone is throwing out that $2.6 billion as the amount of cash BBRY has. this figure is from the end of Q2. We are now at the end of Q3. It's a good bet that BBRY lost at LEAST the same $500 million in cash that it lost in Q2. So figure the pile of cash that BBRY currently has at south of $2 billion, anywhere from $1.7 to $2 billion.

    That means the buyers are going to have to come up with close to $3 billion in financing. And that means that the "new" BBRY will be $3 billion in debt.

    What is it that BBRY has that is worth $3 billion? Not the patents -- I don't think they'd reach even half of that $3 billion amount, assuming that BBRY was the sole owner of all of them (which it is not -- some are owned in common with Apple and MS).

    What else is left? Not handhelds and BB10 -- that and a MetroCard will get you on the subway.

    BBM? Doubtful -- whatever value it has right now is highly speculative, and no matter how high the regard in which one may hold it, it faces ferocious competition.

    Enterprise solutions? Maybe, but MS is well-entrenched there, too, so again: fierce competition.

    Potential lenders of the $3 billion will be mulling all of this over. So too will Fairfax itself during due diligence.

    There is only one thing for sure, IMHO: there will be no more BB handhelds ever again.
    09-24-13 06:20 AM
  11. Bobby Nweze's Avatar
    Buyers hoping to get financing, the same way us regular folks get financing to buy a house. The financing will have to cover the spread between whatever cash BBRY has left and the $4.7 billion purchase price.

    And just as a reminder, while everyone is throwing out that $2.6 billion as the amount of cash BBRY has. this figure is from the end of Q2. We are now at the end of Q3. It's a good bet that BBRY lost at LEAST the same $500 million in cash that it lost in Q2. So figure the pile of cash that BBRY currently has at south of $2 billion, anywhere from $1.7 to $2 billion.

    That means the buyers are going to have to come up with close to $3 billion in financing. And that means that the "new" BBRY will be $3 billion in debt.

    What is it that BBRY has that is worth $3 billion? Not the patents -- I don't think they'd reach even half of that $3 billion amount, assuming that BBRY was the sole owner of all of them (which it is not -- some are owned in common with Apple and MS).

    What else is left? Not handhelds and BB10 -- that and a MetroCard will get you on the subway.

    BBM? Doubtful -- whatever value it has right now is highly speculative, and no matter how high the regard in which one may hold it, it faces ferocious competition.

    Enterprise solutions? Maybe, but MS is well-entrenched there, too, so again: fierce competition.

    Potential lenders of the $3 billion will be mulling all of this over. So too will Fairfax itself during due diligence.

    There is only one thing for sure, IMHO: there will be no more BB handhelds ever again.
    Well Pray that your analysis turns out correct because if it doesn't in the near future, that makes you a fool for claiming to think u know all. That's all I have to say. Please don't be offended!

    Thanks


    Sent from my iPhone using CB Forums mobile app
    09-24-13 06:27 AM
  12. bobshine's Avatar
    Buyers hoping to get financing, the same way us regular folks get financing to buy a house. The financing will have to cover the spread between whatever cash BBRY has left and the $4.7 billion purchase price.

    And just as a reminder, while everyone is throwing out that $2.6 billion as the amount of cash BBRY has. this figure is from the end of Q2. We are now at the end of Q3. It's a good bet that BBRY lost at LEAST the same $500 million in cash that it lost in Q2. So figure the pile of cash that BBRY currently has at south of $2 billion, anywhere from $1.7 to $2 billion.

    That means the buyers are going to have to come up with close to $3 billion in financing. And that means that the "new" BBRY will be $3 billion in debt.

    What is it that BBRY has that is worth $3 billion? Not the patents -- I don't think they'd reach even half of that $3 billion amount, assuming that BBRY was the sole owner of all of them (which it is not -- some are owned in common with Apple and MS).

    What else is left? Not handhelds and BB10 -- that and a MetroCard will get you on the subway.

    BBM? Doubtful -- whatever value it has right now is highly speculative, and no matter how high the regard in which one may hold it, it faces ferocious competition.

    Enterprise solutions? Maybe, but MS is well-entrenched there, too, so again: fierce competition.

    Potential lenders of the $3 billion will be mulling all of this over. So too will Fairfax itself during due diligence.

    There is only one thing for sure, IMHO: there will be no more BB handhelds ever again.
    i dont think the financing would had to be that high. The consortium of buyer most probably includes a few current owners of BB shares, including Fairfax. Fairfax's position alone is worth about 500M. I would still guess about 3B in cash cause with a cut in the work force, they will be increasing cash flow dramatically. What Fairfax is interested in, and in every leverage buyout, is to slim the company down and payback on the investment asap. BB still have a good service revenu stream, thats what they are after.
    09-24-13 06:30 AM
  13. uncle_numpty's Avatar
    Personally I think the whole thing smells funny.

    BBRY announces a pre earnings alert, a massive 1 Billion write off, the layoff of up to 4500 staff, and then bungles & 'holds' the deployment of BBM for the weakest *** excuse known to man - the net result off these things is a massive cut in the share price and then....

    BINGO in steps Fairfax witha $9 a share offer.

    Like I said it smells funny and the word 'collusion' may leap to your mind, if you were so inclined.
    09-24-13 06:34 AM
  14. Eumaeus's Avatar
    Regarding Microsoft... This isn't 1998 any more, and MS is not in a position to throw around billions of dollars "just because it can get a deal", especially after buying Nokia's handset business and the Surface write down .

    It will cost billions just to integrate Nokia. Buying BBRY would multiply their costs and headaches, and or what? They have a handset business, an OS that is solid and growing its ecosystem, and a popular messaging system. Oh, and lots and lots of patents. What does BBRY offer?

    And about those patents... If they are super asserts for mega-profits, why wasn't BBRY taking advantage of them?

    I doubt Fairfax will have competition.
    09-24-13 06:40 AM
  15. birdman_38's Avatar
    Regarding Microsoft... This isn't 1998 any more, and MS is not in a position to throw around billions of dollars "just because it can get a deal", especially after buying Nokia's handset business and the Surface write down .
    They also need to be cautious as to not jeopardize the Nokia acquisition vote that goes before shareholders soon. Another acquisition could complicate things.
    09-24-13 06:56 AM
  16. JasW's Avatar
    i dont think the financing would had to be that high. The consortium of buyer most probably includes a few current owners of BB shares, including Fairfax. Fairfax's position alone is worth about 500M. I would still guess about 3B in cash cause with a cut in the work force, they will be increasing cash flow dramatically. What Fairfax is interested in, and in every leverage buyout, is to slim the company down and payback on the investment asap. BB still have a good service revenu stream, thats what they are after.
    I think that's a fair analysis. The actual amount of cash BBRY has is unknown -- we only know for sure that it's less than $2.6 billion. We don't know how much cash Fairfax is going to put into the deal. Also, note that Watsa said a few months ago that Fairfax paid an average of $17 a share for its BBRY shares. It usually uses its cash holdings to protect its investors from poor investments, which this is undoubtedly one, so I don't know how all of that will figure in. It's probable that Watsa has in mind selling off what he can, patents mostly, and paying back the debt off from a leaner company that just provides enterprise software solutions. That may or may not work -- Watsa has failed before, notably with CanWest and Torstar.
    09-24-13 07:20 AM
  17. xandermac's Avatar
    Unless they're getting out of the handset business altogether and ditching BB10, there will be consumer phones. No phone manufacturer can exist selling only business phones. Case in point: BlackBerry.
    They said friday they're abandoning the consumer and focusing on the "ProSumer" whatever the F that is. It was that lack of focus on the consumer that led to all this and now they want to revert back? Good luck....
    09-24-13 07:43 AM
  18. xandermac's Avatar
    I am assuming you mean Fairfax fails to attain financing (which is not altogether unlikely). In that case, BBRY gets $0.30(?) per share and everything continues like before.
    I thought it was Fairfax that got $0.30 per share ($157M) if RIM back out? (or find another buyer, which won't happen).

    "During that time, BlackBerry is entitled to shop around for other buyers, but if BlackBerry backs out of the deal, it would owe Fairfax about $157 million."

    http://www.npr.org/templates/story/s...ryId=225449110
    m1a1mg likes this.
    09-24-13 07:45 AM
  19. sleepngbear's Avatar
    So it appears that trying to actually have an intelligent discussion here is futile. I should not be surprised.
    09-24-13 07:46 AM
  20. JasW's Avatar
    Well Pray that your analysis turns out correct because if it doesn't in the near future, that makes you a fool for claiming to think u know all. That's all I have to say. Please don't be offended!

    Thanks


    Sent from my iPhone using CB Forums mobile app
    Alrighty, then. Actually, I was incorrect in the quarter timing -- as pointed out to me elsewhere, we're not at the end of BBRY's Q3 yet because that just began Sept. 1. So it's unclear how much cash will be left from the $2.6 billion they had at the beginning of the month, and thus ultimately unclear (in that and other respects) how much financing will be necessary.
    09-24-13 07:52 AM
  21. TGR1's Avatar
    who said there won't be job cuts?
    If the deal falls through and no one else steps up, the company is in a state of bleeding their funds. At some point some shareholders will say enough is enough and force a vote on a sale of assets to realize what they can.

    Remember that some of their cash should be reserved for severance for remaining employees. In the real world employees are bottom on the list of creditors. Fairfax, banks, big funds, etc will get their x cents on the dollar first. An IMO ethical company starts winding up affairs so that those employees get some severance. However, I have a real fear that it may end as it did for friends of mine, In which the remaining employees got nothing but an IOU that they were owed x, whenever funds become available (yeah, right).

    Honestly, it is looking as if the 4500 laid off got off lucky.
    09-24-13 08:03 AM
  22. mset's Avatar
    Yeah they are providing capital to BlackBerry. How the hell is BlackBerry able to go private if they aren't providing capital? I know they may not be taking money out of their pocket, but they did create a consortium of buyers!
    Borrowing money to buy the firm out is not 'providing capital' to Blackberry in any way, shape or form. It is paying out the owners of Blackberry - the shareholders. You said Watsa would act as an investor, providing capital to Blackberry. That's wrong. The implication was that BBRY would not be broken up by Watsa for this reason, which is even more wrong.

    Just a suggestion for you, and many others here. Speculate on things which you know something about. Seriously. This type of statement is ridiculous. I'm sorry to be so blunt but I've never seen more misinformation on a message board than we've seen here over the past few weeks.
    Last edited by mset; 09-24-13 at 09:00 AM.
    mikeo007 likes this.
    09-24-13 08:03 AM
  23. mset's Avatar
    Personally I think the whole thing smells funny.

    BBRY announces a pre earnings alert, a massive 1 Billion write off, the layoff of up to 4500 staff, and then bungles & 'holds' the deployment of BBM for the weakest *** excuse known to man - the net result off these things is a massive cut in the share price and then....

    Like I said it smells funny and the word 'collusion' may leap to your mind, if you were so inclined.
    Does everyone here know who the Chair of the BBRY Board Of Directors is?

    It's Barbara Stymiest.

    Does everyone know who she is?

    This is why there will ever be any charges resulting from the timing of last week's announcements and the resulting devaluation.
    09-24-13 08:14 AM
  24. cgk's Avatar
    They also need to be cautious as to not jeopardize the Nokia acquisition vote that goes before shareholders soon. Another acquisition could complicate things.
    Bear in mind also that the Nokia deal was specifically done with off-shore cash, so they might not have anything on tap off-shore to do a BBRY deal with.
    09-24-13 08:15 AM
  25. FSeverino's Avatar
    Bear in mind also that the Nokia deal was specifically done with off-shore cash, so they might not have anything on tap off-shore to do a BBRY deal with.
    not even for the 2 Billion that it would essentially cost them? even if they bring the bid to 5.5, they are getting 2.6b in cash... I ahvent looked into the nokia deal or ms finances. but i still think that any company that is even interested in the patents alone NEEDS to bid at anything under 7. with 2.6 in cash you are looking at 7.5b meaning 5b out of pocket, and that is for all the patents, bes, bbm and the hardware side (which, although many people are going to say is worthless MS may want the factories themselves to retool for their purposes)

    obviously im not sure on MSs stance... but, to me, 7.5 on BB seems a better bid than nokia... if only for the cash that comes with all the rest

    (if you dont agree thats fine, im not even sure if i really agree lol. im only talking a quick look at the surface... see what i did there?)
    09-24-13 09:32 AM
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