10-03-13 02:16 AM
57 123
tools
  1. richardat's Avatar
    In my opinion, there are a very few people around here who are spreading a lot of misinformation and seem to be willfully ignorant of the facts about this mess.

    In my opinion, you're basically the leader of that pack.

    This post is totally absurd and untruthful. If Fairfax acquires the whole firm for $9/share and agrees to sell off the parts, they could make up the losses on their current position in about 5 minutes. In fact they will almost certainly come out ahead and not just break even, when the tax losses are factored in.

    Do you seriously not understand that there's easily $600MM in value to be realized by an acquirer at $9 who breaks the company up? At $8 it's a joke.

    I think I'm being trolled.
    Indeed. Early in the thread, it was disturbing to see the new mythos of Prem Watsa gaining traction - it's just unspoken now - Prem Watsa = GOOD deal, Cerberus = BAD deal.

    Great post, but one thing to mention is, it doesn't even matter if one though Watsa wouldn't get his money out, he only needs to get more out than he calculates in other probable scenarios. As you say though, it is completely plausible that at 9$ he can come out ahead. Of course, if others bids don't appear, he may well get it for less! If they do come in....even at 9....well he can use his bonus money to soothe the heartache of not being in mobile ;-)
    mset and Rooster99 like this.
    10-03-13 12:49 AM
  2. mset's Avatar
    Indeed. Early in the thread, it was disturbing to see the new mythos of Prem Watsa gaining traction - it's just unspoken now - Prem Watsa = GOOD deal, Cerberus = BAD deal.

    Great post, but one thing to mention is, it doesn't even matter if one though Watsa wouldn't get his money out, he only needs to get more out than he calculates in other probable scenarios.
    Between you and me, I agree totally. At $9, I believe he can get his money out when tax loss write-off is taken into account, but even if he doesn't, a $100MM loss looks pretty sweet when you were staring down the barrel of $600MM.

    George Soros said that the mark of a great investor is how he takes a loss. As in how he handles it, not how he takes it emotionally. How does he go about it?

    Still, I believe that he will be break-even+ on this position when all is said and done (if he manages to acquire the firm, and make no mistake, that's what he wants).
    richardat and Rooster99 like this.
    10-03-13 12:56 AM
  3. fin2007's Avatar
    You guys are just too funny. The parts if broken up wouldn't make up what Fairfax has lost so far. The only way for anyone to make money from BB is to fire management and put people in there who can develop and market the great products that they have.

    what are you talking about, if they can sell the patents for 3B, BES software for 1B, he will get all his money back right away at a offer price at $9.
    Rooster99 likes this.
    10-03-13 12:59 AM
  4. fin2007's Avatar
    And some BB fans here talked about how Cerberus would break the company and Fairfax would preserve the company?

    Could not you guys just do some googling and go to the wiki page to see what are the deals Cerberus has done?

    There is Zero(I mean 0.00%) difference between Cerberus and Fairfax, both are acting as investors who want to buy lower here and sell higher later, if whoever think keep the company for several years and sell it later could make more bucks, then he will do it, no matter it is PW or Cerberus. Basically both have zero experience on (smartphone)phone business before and they have to face the enemies like Apple/Google/MSFT/Samsung.

    You can finger count the number of companies who can really fight those enemies in the long term.
    10-03-13 01:06 AM
  5. richardat's Avatar
    Between you and me, I agree totally. At $9, I believe he can get his money out when tax loss write-off is taken into account, but even if he doesn't, a $100MM loss looks pretty sweet when you were staring down the barrel of $600MM.

    George Soros said that the mark of a great investor is how he takes a loss. As in how he handles it, not how he takes it emotionally. How does he go about it?

    Still, I believe that he will be break-even+ on this position when all is said and done (if he manages to acquire the firm, and make no mistake, that's what he wants).
    I am no expert, but I suspect you are correct.

    Yes, certainly a financier and investor needs to understand how to take losses and I'm sure Watsa of all people can do that! It's not even as personal as a board or CEO who are directly affiliated in a longer-term capacity....and who often are involved deeply in the industry......Watsa and company aren't tied to the industry or the company, and losses are part of their game. He's had plenty of time to make-peace with his BB losses anyways, and I'm sure he's making his calculations carefully.

    The only wildcard I wondered about was whether patriotism and even moreso, ego/image, would have an influence on him. Even shrewd businessmen fall for that trap (sometimes it's argued they're even more prone to it!)....since his involvement has become so public, he may well be conscious of it here. He may wish to be a Canadian hero and/or not seen as a corporate raider. All things being equal, he'll take the path that helps him in this regard....but, in the end, if it comes down to making quick profit, or even taking a small loss versus pouring huge sums into a collapsed business for which there is no particularly attractive - or even visible- path to big profits.....well....let's just say I would not count on him going for the latter! ;-)
    10-03-13 01:31 AM
  6. RH1Pearl's Avatar
    I'll only get excited if an offer comes from tech-related firms with deep pockets and no political red marks. The rest are just pseudo-savoirs looking for a quick buck.
    10-03-13 01:57 AM
  7. fin2007's Avatar
    I'll only get excited if an offer comes from tech-related firms with deep pockets and no political red marks. The rest are just pseudo-savoirs looking for a quick buck.
    you got it.

    But even with tech-related companies MSFT/GOOG/APPLE, I do not see how they would keep BB platform.

    Only Asian companies like Lenovo/Samsung would likely keep the BB platform, no others.
    10-03-13 02:16 AM
57 123

Similar Threads

  1. PIN SPAM from BlackBerry Indonesia
    By jupiter8 in forum BlackBerry 10 OS
    Replies: 19
    Last Post: 10-13-13, 03:09 AM
  2. Apparently you can use your BlackBerry as a phone!
    By birdman_38 in forum General BlackBerry Discussion
    Replies: 61
    Last Post: 10-06-13, 09:04 AM
  3. BlackBerry Problems, Market saturation? Apple looses a couple Billion!
    By crackbrry fan in forum General BlackBerry Discussion
    Replies: 8
    Last Post: 10-02-13, 03:27 PM
  4. Replies: 1
    Last Post: 10-02-13, 02:03 PM
  5. Replies: 3
    Last Post: 10-02-13, 01:26 PM
LINK TO POST COPIED TO CLIPBOARD