07-07-15 06:23 AM
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  1. daddyrhodes's Avatar
    If blackberry switches from BB10 to Android then for the average consumer what's the point. John Chen has done wonderful things on the enterprise end but at the expense of the consumer. It's a shame how lack of marketing and refusal to give flagship phones (except passport) top line specs has all but killed the consumer faithful of the company. BlackBerry will be a very limited niche player in the mobile market and might as well sell itself to a larger company for its patent portfolio ie. Samsung. Well here's hoping they don't do this and some how get back to getting native developer support however hard it is back to BlackBerry.

    Posted via CB10
    03-05-15 10:04 AM
  2. ikalinin's Avatar
    i think it will never happen. BB spent BILLIONS on BB10. scrapping it and going Android is pretty stupid*. I agree that BB can integrate deeper and deeper into Android, but going ALL Android, is out of the question*.

    *my opinion
    Superfly_FR and La Emperor like this.
    03-05-15 10:06 AM
  3. birdman_38's Avatar
    i think it will never happen. BB spent BILLIONS on BB10. scrapping it and going Android is pretty stupid*. I agree that BB can integrate deeper and deeper into Android, but going ALL Android, is out of the question*.
    It would be foolish of John Chen not to study the possibility. Maybe it's a way for them to recoup some of those losses.
    JeepBB likes this.
    03-05-15 10:08 AM
  4. birdman_38's Avatar
    A BlackBerry Android handheld secured by BES12 with Knox 2.0 preloaded with Work Life, SecuSUITE, and BlackBerry Experience would be a compelling value proposition to a lot of enterprise clients.
    sati01 and JeepBB like this.
    03-05-15 10:14 AM
  5. sentimentGX4's Avatar
    IMO, BB10 had a genuine chance of being that replacement, but BB blew it because they were too late and (more importantly) didn't bring along the bulk of their existing users.
    Given the hoards of shorts who bet against the company, I think it was pretty evident to most individuals outside of Crackberry that BB10 never had a chance. Blackberry's story is not unique. It shares some similarities with the Mac vs. PC wars, it recalls Palm and Nokia, and there are hoards of other examples.

    It comes down to:
    1/ Most hardware manufacturers can't transition to software developers
    2/ The single operating system per OEM model loses out to the licensing model
    3/ The business model that Blackberry was aiming for made no sense

    Think about what would change had Blackberry beat Android to the market with BB10. Blackberry hardware would likely continue to have weak specs and be a poor value proposition versus competitors. Blackberry would likely still not have an answer for the ultra low end and low end smartphone market that is relevant in developing countries.

    Because of the licensing model, Android would still be relevant to a lesser extent, say 30% marketshare and then grow into fierce competition and gnaw away at Blackberry. Japan and South Korea would be incubators for strong anti-Blackberry competition since Blackberry has never had significant presence in these two tech savvy nations.

    Furthermore, Blackberry merely can't charge as much as Apple for its devices. If Blackberry had Apple's marketshare while selling at its current ASP, it still wouldn't be raking that much money. Maybe it would be more profitable than the bulk of current Android OEMs; but, it wouldn't be a huge success story.
    sati01 and southlander like this.
    03-05-15 10:20 AM
  6. Bla1ze's Avatar
    It would be foolish of John Chen not to study the possibility. Maybe it's a way for them to recoup some of those losses.
    Exactly.
    03-05-15 10:21 AM
  7. eyhab27's Avatar
    His office being located in Silicon Valley also makes more and more sense. Lets see. Chen has done nothing but try his darndest to keep the loyalists happy. If this happens, anything Android will be in the background as it is now. For those familiar with Touchwiz, think of BB10 as our Touchwiz, just way more sophisticated since BBRY has the hypervisor to utilize both OS'. My guess is that Chen would keep (and continue to improve) the BB10 feel.
    03-05-15 10:44 AM
  8. Troy Tiscareno's Avatar
    BlackBerry can make devices at an all-in cost of $500 (including costs of distribution and marketing etc. that's all in, that means even selling at $501 means one dollar profit) and sell them for $700 to the small number of fans worldwide who WILL buy the device, these would not be cheap low-tier devices, these would be high quality devices.
    But the problem is: they can't get that kind of money for their phones in any kind of volume. Hell, they've already been discounting the Passport for a while, and it is what? 6 months old? And I'd wager that more than half of the BB10 phones sold to date were sold at a discount. BB's brand is far too damaged, and it is too uncompetitive in too many areas to command a premium price in the market, at least, in any significant numbers. As it is, BB hasn't managed to sell 6M phones per year when Chen said that 10M was what they needed to sell to make a profit.

    You have to remember that, unlike an Android OEM, BB has huge R&D and development costs for the BB10 OS and for other parts of its ecosystem. BB has to make a much higher profit per handset compared to, say, Samsung, HTC, Sony, LG, etc. just to break even, and yet, they've only been able to move their phones in decent volumes when they're discounted.

    When was the last time Ferrari or Bentley or Tiffany or Cartier or Porsche discounted their products? In fact, those brands all command a significant price premium. BB has proven again and again that it does not - the evidence is right there in their sales figures and balance sheet.
    03-05-15 10:45 AM
  9. RubberChicken76's Avatar
    True, but on the other hand they'd be catering to an audience that holds over 80% of the market rather than 1%.
    Android is also pretty flexible. I don't know how far they could take it, but suspect they could bring a lot of BB10 elements to their "Android skin" and have the Google Play store.

    I'm sure it's a plan B or C.
    JeepBB likes this.
    03-05-15 10:48 AM
  10. RubberChicken76's Avatar
    But the problem is
    Cut.

    Troy - do you like anything BlackBerry? Is anything an option for them in your eyes? Short of declaring bankruptcy, selling the patents and going home? Is there a single solitary thing you like? Even one?
    LuvULongTime likes this.
    03-05-15 10:50 AM
  11. ljfong's Avatar
    Cut.

    Troy - do you like anything BlackBerry? Is anything an option for them in your eyes? Short of declaring bankruptcy, selling the patents and going home? Is there a single solitary thing you like? Even one?
    I cannot speak for Troy but I agree with everything he said and I like BlackBerry 10 for its Hub and UI geared for messaging productivity. There is a lot to like about BlackBerry 10 by itself post 10.2.1. But when it comes to ecosystem, that's where I find more and more things to be impractical every day. Oh there is a new app that can do this and that, oh wait, I would have download an Android port off it through Snap or some other means and cross my fingers that the app won't crash on first run. Oh there is an upgrade, hmm...should I brave the upgrade? Have I made a back up of what I currently have? That sucks. Android users simply hit upgrade all button without even thinking. Then there is the problem of many Android apps that rely on notification randomly fail to deliver notifications when they are not in active frames. That again, I find impractical for a device meant for communication.
    03-05-15 11:03 AM
  12. Maxxxpower's Avatar
    It would be foolish of John Chen not to study the possibility. Maybe it's a way for them to recoup some of those losses.
    Indeed. And he will try to hide this as long as it is possible to not to kill the smartphone division before the switch happens as that Nokia CEO (from MS^^) did with Nokias Symbian/Meego devices. Some observations make me feel that it could happen in the near future:

    - On MWC, BB10 wasn't mentioned. Instead, they focused on Multi-platform Software and BES
    - There is no roadmap concerning future BB10 releases, not even for developers.
    - A switch will be quite easy for them when lots of important parts/apps of BB10 OS are already ported onto Android
    sati01, JeepBB, ubizmo and 2 others like this.
    03-05-15 11:04 AM
  13. anon1727506's Avatar
    Android is also pretty flexible. I don't know how far they could take it, but suspect they could bring a lot of BB10 elements to their "Android skin" and have the Google Play store.

    I'm sure it's a plan B or C.
    There was a lot of talk back four years ago that Android was plan "A" originally, but Mike and Jim didn't want to have to share the ecosystem revenues with Google. Which at the time seemed like the right move.
    03-05-15 11:16 AM
  14. stuart445's Avatar
    Blackberry with Android OS makes a lot of sense, I like BB10 and since I moved from the Z30 to a Sony Xperia Z3 I have missed having the hub, build quality (the Sony is good but feels a bit flimsy) the main thing I have missed though is the virtual keyboard.

    What blackberry could do is use BB10 purely for the enterprise market and put android on the phones that they sell to consumers. Think about it android is very customisable we could have the blackberry hub, virtual keyboard and build quality that you get with a blackberry device which is second to none, we could have that and have the Android app ecosystem. In my opinion it's a win win. It makes sense for blackberry to do that.

    Posted via the CrackBerry App for Android
    03-05-15 11:27 AM
  15. Carterbits's Avatar
    BlackBerry 10 is far and away the best OS out there today. There's really no competition when it comes to stability and performance.

    I'm the type who wants a smartphone with five 9s of reliability, and when paired with good/great hardware, that's what QNX delivers. I simply can't justify dropping several hundred dollars on competitor phones with great hardware, and crappy OSs all based on monolithic kernels that hang and crash at the drop of a hat when pushed. I will always push my smartphone hardware/software to their limits; this is why I need to see a "Z50" soon that can keep up with my habit of running a "server" in my Wranglers' tech pocket. ;-)
    TheAuthority likes this.
    03-05-15 11:45 AM
  16. deebo550's Avatar
    so instead of touchwiz or sense, etc youd have a bb10 layer on top of stock android. Makes total sense especially with all the cross platform offerings coming out soon and the close relationship with samsung (android phones)
    03-05-15 11:48 AM
  17. RyanGermann's Avatar
    But the problem is: they can't get that kind of money for their phones in any kind of volume.
    I disagree.

    Hell, they've already been discounting the Passport for a while, and it is what? 6 months old?
    The iPhone 6 is discounted too. Not by Apple, NO, they'd never but retailers are offering discounts / gift cards etc. so if you're insinuating that BB has to slash the prices by 50% or more to move product, no, I disagree. I put my Passport up for sale for $400 and was OVERWHELMED by offers... which made me realize a) I shouldn't sell it, and b) if I do sell it, fair market value is HIGHER than $400, for a USED device. That says something real to me, not something abstract.

    And I'd wager that more than half of the BB10 phones sold to date were sold at a discount.
    That's a misleading statement in this context: That's true of overproduced Q10s and Z10s and maybe even Z30s but that's not a business model, that's a way of dealing with a mistake. We're not talking about that; we're talking about a forward-looking business model for low-volume but profitable device sales... well, that's what I'M talking about.

    BB's brand is far too damaged, and it is too uncompetitive in too many areas to command a premium price in the market, at least, in any significant numbers. As it is, BB hasn't managed to sell 6M phones per year when Chen said that 10M was what they needed to sell to make a profit.
    Chen's statement is a good reference, but Chen ALSO said recently that the devices business IS PROFITABLE now. PROFITABLE. NOW. That may be some financial speak jiggery pokery because they took a billion dollar write down a year ago, but PROFITABLE. NOW.

    I believe there is room to get to 10 M annually IF they continue to impress the corporate arena: since that time they've brought out multi-platform BBM and also announced the multi-platform suite, so I'm not sure how relevant that statement is, although it did come direct from Chen's mouth.

    My point is that "run of the mill" devices a-la full-slab sameoldsameold isn't the way you get to 10 million devices a year, at least not without the market at large gaining a newfound respect for BB10 in and of itself regardless of the third party app situation. To that, I say that there are lots of Android and Apple users that probably don't use a whole lot of apps, but are ignorant of the FACT that they'd prefer BB10 device over Android or iOS... but if it costs 3 trillion dollars or 10 years for this "untapped market" to get that, then it will be moot.

    You have to remember that, unlike an Android OEM, BB has huge R&D and development costs for the BB10 OS and for other parts of its ecosystem. BB has to make a much higher profit per handset compared to, say, Samsung, HTC, Sony, LG, etc. just to break even, and yet, they've only been able to move their phones in decent volumes when they're discounted.
    I don't disagree, but going forward, discounting is a thing of the past if you don't overproduce hardware initially.

    The BB10 OS is largely "complete" at this point, and the long tail of adding features and capabilities is not the same as the initial investment in BB10 ALREADY MADE... so they lose a lot by SWITCHING in that to some extent they have to "start over" especially if it means reskinning an AOSP build to look and feel like BB10. I don't have access to the numbers, but making Android apps on BB10 run much better, or putting out devices with high enough specs that the Android VM runs so smoothly that it is indistinguishable from running on native Android, that is a better approach in my opinion.

    When was the last time Ferrari or Bentley or Tiffany or Cartier or Porsche discounted their products? In fact, those brands all command a significant price premium. BB has proven again and again that it does not - the evidence is right there in their sales figures and balance sheet.
    I'm not in the market for products by those vendors, but there are plenty of OTHER examples of companies that are profitable without selling literally MILLIONS of anything. Faberg was profitable with his eggs, and only sold to one customer! :-) My point is that "profit" includes the cost of running the business and the cost of goods and if, all in, BlackBerry can do low-volume production runs of devices that is a profitable business, why should they not continue to do so until it is OBVIOUSLY UNSUSTAINABLE, which, at this point, is NOT clear. Not to me, at least.

    BlackBerry 10 is far and away the best OS out there today. There's really no competition when it comes to stability and performance.

    I'm the type who wants a smartphone with five 9s of reliability, and when paired with good/great hardware, that's what QNX delivers. I simply can't justify dropping several hundred dollars on competitor phones with great hardware, and crappy OSs all based on monolithic kernels that hang and crash at the drop of a hat when pushed. I will always push my smartphone hardware/software to their limits; this is why I need to see a "Z50" soon that can keep up with my habit of running a "server" in my Wranglers' tech pocket. ;-)
    I know what you mean: the absolutely CRASHIEST thing I use regularly is Google Chrome on iOS. It is HORRIBLE how often it crashes. They say that you shouldn't build "crash recovery" into your product because it speaks to low quality of code... but thank god I have "restore closed tabs" because Chrome on iOS is so unstable that you'd think it wasn't built by a company with literally 10s of thousands of the best software developers on the planet working there. I'm surprised they aren't more ashamed. Like "issue a public apology" ashamed. The idea of putting my trust in an OS built by that company is unsettling. If BB switches to Android, I guess I won't have much choice.
    Superfly_FR likes this.
    03-05-15 11:51 AM
  18. The Big Picture's Avatar
    Comparing phones to car companies is silly. Someone mentioned Bentley and ferrari not being discounted? Did you also know that Bentley went bankrupt and is owned by volkwagen? The not so premium brand car company?

    Ferrari is own by fiat which is also NOT a premium brand.

    Don't even go there.

    Posted via CB10
    JeepBB and TheAuthority like this.
    03-05-15 11:58 AM
  19. KenFletch's Avatar
    funny point , took a little stroll over at N4BB and next to nothing over there on this discussion. Gotta wonder why this gets so much bizarre and vigorious chatter nat CB

    my 2 cents ... BB hardware with android OS , just another android, would be gone so fast.

    The goal is still more OS10 phones in circ. Chen is smart and the appraoch now , looks like prongs ...1. basic midrange work phones, 2. interesting ground breaking upmarket prestige phones , plus the luxury PD phones.

    BTW, naysayers , the phones are making money and so far & the hardware makes most of the income. Will be a while longer before software brings in more than hardware
    Superfly_FR likes this.
    03-05-15 12:03 PM
  20. katiepea's Avatar
    BB10 as it stands will never win the consumer market back. Ever. It's simply not enough. Not even for me, a sysadmin, who loves BB10 and sells it to others. If BB10 still wants consumers then switching to Android is the way to go, there's no reason why they can't have both. They're apparently already offering the bulk of their functions to all platforms, how is the hub going to even work properly if it's not part of the OS? I see no reason to balk at the idea, people were upset about BBM going multiplatform, diehards always have to be dragged through progress kicking and screaming. Personally anything that can generate revenue for BB I'm all for as I'd much rather see it survive humbly and picked apart.
    JeepBB likes this.
    03-05-15 12:15 PM
  21. kellyTKD's Avatar
    It's odd that John Chen is all about discussing BlackBerry's commitment to multi-platform software and new hardware but doesn't mention BB10.
    Maxxxpower, sati01 and JeepBB like this.
    03-05-15 12:22 PM
  22. birdman_38's Avatar
    It's odd that John Chen is all about discussing BlackBerry's commitment to multi-platform software and new hardware but doesn't mention BB10.
    John Chen has never stated he is proud of BlackBerry 10 OS.
    03-05-15 12:24 PM
  23. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    Right. So it's better to try to sustain an operating system whose market share is shrinking into oblivion, which carriers are losing interest in, and which native developers are leaving...for two more years. Makes sense.
    Not what I wrote.
    They tried to retrieve traction from consumers under Heins era. They were still #3 on the planet.
    Sure, BB10 wasn't perfect - we all know that - but above all they simply can't afford it.
    They (the board) thought loyalty to the brand would be awaken enough with social noise and they tried hard, I can testify on a daily basis.
    But nope, that wasn't even close to enough, far from it.
    During this period, you could barely avoid the Samsung/apple hype, almost impossible to switch your TV without their ads (sometimes multiple in the same advertising cut) and the press, web, blogs were in the same situation. And - yes - the pressure was intense from these deep pockets advertizers ... no one wanted to be cut from the media list. Not a single, obscure blog in the deepest web. Rewards were mandatory to survive and the simple threat to be omited for next apple event or Samsung test unit program was enough to turn eyes.
    Again, I don't pretend this is the only reason; but you can't fight the dragons with a plastic sword.

    Remember (you were here !) how hard the forums were exploding under "where is marketing ?", "where are the ads ?", "why so little carriers ?" and similar threads ? Probably hundreds. And there was a single reason : they were DOA, due to lack of finance thus incentives.

    So it's only pragmatism.
    What BB10 / BES12 is today fits perfectly enterprises needs.
    May not fit consumers like you. They perfectly know that.
    Last edited by Superfly_FR; 03-05-15 at 12:52 PM. Reason: some vocabulary edits.
    RyanGermann likes this.
    03-05-15 12:25 PM
  24. birdman_38's Avatar
    BB hardware with android OS , just another android, would be gone so fast.
    See my previous point.
    A BlackBerry Android handheld secured by BES12 with Knox 2.0 preloaded with Work Life, SecuSUITE, and BlackBerry Experience would be a compelling value proposition to a lot of enterprise clients.
    03-05-15 12:27 PM
  25. Troy Tiscareno's Avatar
    Troy - do you like anything BlackBerry? Is anything an option for them in your eyes? Short of declaring bankruptcy, selling the patents and going home? Is there a single solitary thing you like? Even one?
    There's a whole lot to like about BB, sure. BB10 is a quality OS. Security when coupled with BES is first-class. Management on an enterprise level is terrific. While not my own personal preference, I can see why many people would desire the Hub and find it incredibly useful for them.

    But my post has nothing to do with whether or not I like BB or BB10. My post is about current business realities that many here are in denial about, or simply aren't educated about. If we were talking about any other company than BB, most people here would completely agree with my viewpoint and most would say that I'm only stating the obvious, but because it is BB, the fan(atic)s refuse to accept the situation that BB is in, or rather, put itself in, with a long series of very poor management decisions - most by Mike and Jim, and a few from Heins and Chen.

    We're already well down the path I predicted here several years ago, and Chen is quickly running out of ground - in the next couple of quarters, if the hardware business isn't profitable, some big changes will almost certainly be made, because the company simply can't continue to lose money and not gain any ground - not because I say so, but because I simply don't believe that BB's investors will tolerate it. While I believe they are giving Chen the "leash" he asked for to complete his plan, it also seems clear that, while he's done okay in other areas, he has fallen far short of his own stated goals with handset sales, and that's the most expensive piece of the company.

    Sure, many of the realities I point out aren't popular here. I get it. And I'm sure there are folks who hate me here. I'm okay with that too, because I know there are also a bunch of folks here who appreciate my posts and my points of view.

    As I've said before, my preference would be for BB to survive and remain in the handset business. Strong competition forces ALL players to up their game or lose, and BB has a couple of unique features that could put pressure on the competition. But because of poor corporate leadership, I'm not sure that's going to happen, and from what I see, it seems less and less likely every quarter.

    You can hate me all you like, but remember that it wasn't me who made any of this happen - I'm just an outside observer collecting information on the situation, analyzing it, and sharing my opinion, along with facts that clearly some here would prefer to ignore. You are free to ignore my posts or block me - I won't lose any sleep.
    03-05-15 12:31 PM
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