07-07-15 06:23 AM
461 ... 171819
tools
  1. ubizmo's Avatar
    There are basically no market evolutions, that could change the smartphone itself in such a revolutionised way, that a new player can emerge, with a new and inferior OS, to capture a wide audience of the market.
    If there is such a player, it'll likely be WP10, which will supposedly bring something new to the table: full app compatibility between mobile and desktop. It remains to be see how well this will be executed, but if it works as rumored it'll push the of expectations for smartphones a bit higher.
    MarsupilamiX likes this.
    04-27-15 07:59 AM
  2. lnichols's Avatar
    If there is such a player, it'll likely be WP10, which will supposedly bring something new to the table: full app compatibility between mobile and desktop. It remains to be see how well this will be executed, but if it works as rumored it'll push the of expectations for smartphones a bit higher.
    I have faith in Microsoft that it will be executed poorly.

    Posted via CB10 on Z30
    ubizmo, peter0328 and techvisor like this.
    04-27-15 08:04 AM
  3. ubizmo's Avatar
    I have faith in Microsoft that it will be executed poorly.
    It's nice to be able to depend on some things in an uncertain world.
    MarsupilamiX and DrBoomBotz like this.
    04-27-15 08:54 AM
  4. pkcable's Avatar
    04-27-15 11:32 AM
  5. birdman_38's Avatar
    Maybe I do not understand business, but I understand markets.
    And that is my view as a paid market analyst.

    But your post was a great rebuttal!
    I feel like you addressed a lot of points, used quite a few arguments, didn't use an ad hominem and had a very informed view to share.

    But since I like your style:
    If you believe that BlackBerry has been competiting successfully with BB10 and that the their products are currently competitive, then you don't understand business



    The smartphone market is done.
    What you are talking about, is a de facto new product category, and that's not what I mean.

    Just look at the PC market and you'll understand it.
    Nothing has majorly changed in the OS war, since Windows 95.
    Apple gained a lot of users with their ultrabooks (MacBook Air), but that's it (a lot, still isn't that much, when we talk about marketshare).

    No new successful OS launches for consumer products and most businesses also use one of the 3 standard operating systems.
    The ratio between MacOs, Windows and Linux has also been pretty much the same for years and, with the biggest change in the luxury sector, as players like Sony and IBM lost that space to Apple.

    Then came the tablet and people started to talk about the post PC era, even though nothing changed that much.
    Tablets were just huge smartphones, instead of smaller laptops, and thus were unable to fulfil the post-PC promise, as you still needed a PC.
    It wasn't the only reason obviously. That the form-factor simply isn't good enough for productive or hardware intensive work, might be another issue.

    The concept of a smartphone, just like the concept of a PC, is pretty much finalised.
    There are basically no market evolutions, that could change the smartphone itself in such a revolutionised way, that a new player can emerge, with a new and inferior OS, to capture a wide audience of the market.

    If there will be a change, it will be in a new product category, like wearables. Or the IoT.
    But the smartphone market itself is done.
    And this knowledge does not stem from a lack of forward thinking, it emerged out of forward thinking.

    The biggest changes you will see in the smartphone market will be smaller prices.
    That's the biggest revolution we will witness in the next few quarters, because that's how you can catch the remaining non-smartphone owners (mostly, they will switch when they have to anyhow).



    The OS lacks a few million features every other OS has and we call those apps.
    Not even talking about the update policy.
    BB10 needs a second OS to be useful, something no other OS needs.

    Yes, the foundation is finally there, something that was never the case under BBOS, but the foundation is so poor and badly made, that it might just crumble away under your feet.

    In the end, BB10 is the problem though.
    BlackBerry wasted years when developing it. They wasted endless amounts of money.
    Burned through thousands of employees.
    And could have just used the real Android OS instead wasting all these resources on BB10.

    Beat them, or join them. BB10 doesn't beat anything though (0.4% marketshare since its inception) so Android or WP seem to be logical choices.
    It should also be of note, that the enterprise sector will sooner or later leave BlackBerry all together, because there is no reason to go with a BlackBerry, if you are not in an ultra regulated industry (and that sector is not big enough for the smartphone manufacturer called BlackBerry).
    Word.
    04-27-15 07:35 PM
  6. Vorkosigan's Avatar
    @marsupilamiX
    I don't want to quote your whole post - I'm a bit crushed for time - but after it reading it a couple of times I have to say that what amazes me the most is your absolute conviction that things are going along a path of your prediction without any room for creativity or divergence.

    What if phones got expandable screens that you could slide out from the side? What if they got the 'light' keyboards? Imagine what kind of programs they could run with those two combined features and a bit more computing power - and yet still be phones that you pull out of your pocket and take a call on? If I, who am in no way a creator - can see these possibilities - I can't even imagine what some geniuses are thinking up.

    As for BB10 - you know - I was all set to argue about it but it's pointless. You are convinced that your view is the only possible one. I am willing to say that you may be right.

    However, I'm also old enough to know that life can be wonderfully unexpected. That data points can't account for everything. And the only constant is change.

    Posted via CB10
    MarsupilamiX, Loc22 and techvisor like this.
    04-29-15 06:06 AM
  7. southlander's Avatar
    In fact BB10 is a competitive OS in that it has the features and capabilities of the other modern OS's. The fact that it hasn't gained user adoption has been more a failure of execution than the OS product.
    BlackBerry is a public for profit company. We have no way to measure their success other than by market share and profits. The technical merits of BlackBerry 10 are not sufficient. If lack of execution is the only issue (?) I would surely like to have seen them partner with Samsung and have Samsung use BB10 to kick Google in the arse.

    The fact that no one seems that interested in BlackBerry 10 made me think I was sort of wrong to think it was "aok".

    At some point one has to consider being wrong, even if one can't pinpoint exactly why.
    techvisor likes this.
    04-29-15 03:42 PM
  8. ccbs's Avatar
    @marsupilamiX
    I don't want to quote your whole post - I'm a bit crushed for time - but after it reading it a couple of times I have to say that what amazes me the most is your absolute conviction that things are going along a path of your prediction without any room for creativity or divergence.

    What if phones got expandable screens that you could slide out from the side? What if they got the 'light' keyboards? Imagine what kind of programs they could run with those two combined features and a bit more computing power - and yet still be phones that you pull out of your pocket and take a call on? If I, who am in no way a creator - can see these possibilities - I can't even imagine what some geniuses are thinking up.

    As for BB10 - you know - I was all set to argue about it but it's pointless. You are convinced that your view is the only possible one. I am willing to say that you may be right.

    However, I'm also old enough to know that life can be wonderfully unexpected. That data points can't account for everything. And the only constant is change.

    Posted via CB10
    All your scenario about further development of smartphone will need more engaging and deeper support from developers and it highlights exactly the reason BB10 doesn't have a bright future. Ecosystem support from the developers, be it apps, or math library, or gaming/virtual engines, compiler library or any other form of support, will be needed for many advancement to gain mass market popularity. Unfortunately, there are just too huge a disparity among the support from the smartphone ecosystem that a scenario could play out that a very limited in resources fourth party could totally overturn the table and disrupt the market. Any long term changes will give opportunity to Android and iOS to adapt and eventually maintain the leads.
    04-29-15 06:23 PM
  9. ccbs's Avatar
    One thing I forgot to add is that, any new comer will not be having the same luxury when Apple disrupted the smartphone markets. Google and Apple are very nimble competitors and are very quick to react to changes. Frankly, Apple really got lucky when all they had to beat were that dinosaur Canadian company and the stagnant, self imploding 700lbs Gorilla in Washington.
    04-29-15 06:28 PM
  10. birdman_38's Avatar
    One thing I forgot to add is that, any new comer will not be having the same luxury when Apple disrupted the smartphone markets. Google and Apple are very nimble competitors and are very quick to react to changes. Frankly, Apple really got lucky when all they had to beat were that dinosaur Canadian company and the stagnant, self imploding 700lbs Gorilla in Washington.
    Great point. Apple took what RIM was doing for consumers but did it 10 times better.
    05-01-15 04:31 AM
  11. asherN's Avatar
    @marsupilamiX

    What if phones got expandable screens that you could slide out from the side? What if they got the 'light' keyboards? Imagine what kind of programs they could run with those two combined features and a bit more computing power - and yet still be phones that you pull out of your pocket and take a call on? If I, who am in no way a creator - can see these possibilities - I can't even imagine what some geniuses are thinking up.


    Posted via CB10
    The flexible screen has been in development for years and is still not feasible in the foreseeable future. The closest thing you could have today would be a slider that doubles the width of the screen. But the bezels would make it a non seamless experience. And battery tech is nowhere near where it needs to b to support driving twice as many pixels.

    Will it eventually happen? Maybe. But in the short to medium term, there does not seem to be anything coming that will be as disruptive as the iPhone was.
    07-07-15 06:23 AM
461 ... 171819

Similar Threads

  1. BBM for Android passes 100 million downloads on Google Play
    By CrackBerry News in forum CrackBerry.com News Discussion
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: 03-30-15, 09:03 AM
  2. Replies: 5
    Last Post: 03-23-15, 02:56 PM
  3. BlackBerry World didn't downland any app or anything
    By Mani Vijayan in forum BlackBerry Z10
    Replies: 14
    Last Post: 03-08-15, 10:10 PM
  4. Suggestion: Blackberry Credit to upgrade to the Classic
    By fireboy2281 in forum BlackBerry Classic
    Replies: 17
    Last Post: 03-05-15, 11:12 AM
  5. Gone back to 10.3.0
    By vhl71 in forum BlackBerry Z30
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: 03-04-15, 01:42 PM
LINK TO POST COPIED TO CLIPBOARD