07-07-15 06:23 AM
461 ... 1011121314 ...
tools
  1. Troy Tiscareno's Avatar
    But the question is, if HW sales of 11 million were considered good back in 2007, why not today, putting aside how that translates into overall market share?
    That's the thing: you can't put aside how it related to overall marketshare. It's those huge numbers that have attracted all the developers and all of the money, because there is potential to make a ton of money if you produce a popular product (see: Angry Birds or Trivia Crack or even WhatsApp).

    Back when BB was on top with 11M phones a year, the number of people developing apps and services for smartphones (and the dollars pouring into the market) was positively tiny compared to today, because people needed full-powered computers to accomplish so many of the tasks that we can now do faster and easier with a mobile device.

    And the vast majority of those companies and individual devs look at the marketplace and say to themselves: it's going to take me $X and Y months to develop my app for each mobile OS I choose to support (there is surprisingly little carry-over between platforms, so it's a lot like starting from scratch on each one), and Platform A has 1,600M active users, Platform I has 600M active users, Platform W has 20M active users, and Platform B has 5M active users. Given that my development and support costs are roughly the same for all 4 platforms, and my time is limited, which ones have the user numbers that will give me the best ROI (return on investment)?

    The math is pretty simple.

    And is this where Chen came up with his magical 10 million devices #?
    Only Chen and a few BB insiders know how accurate that number is, but from the context, it's approximately the number of devices BB needs to sell each year for the hardware business (including development, support, distribution, advertising, etc. costs) to be profitable. I suspect when he gave out that number that he felt pretty confident that it was an achievable target, but so far, they've only hit about 60% of that goal. That's obviously a matter of great concern for the survival of the hardware business.
    JeepBB likes this.
    03-06-15 05:17 PM
  2. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    https://n4bb.com/blackberry-sold-7-m...-devices-2014/
    Warning: don't mess with fiscal and calendar. I'm too - say - 'tired' for the exercice right now (Friday 00:40 PM)!
    Happy weekend to all.
    Cheers!!!

    Posted via CB10
    03-06-15 05:37 PM
  3. LuvULongTime's Avatar
    That's the thing: you can't put aside how it related to overall marketshare. It's those huge numbers that have attracted all the developers and all of the money, because there is potential to make a ton of money if you produce a popular product (see: Angry Birds or Trivia Crack or even WhatsApp).

    Back when BB was on top with 11M phones a year, the number of people developing apps and services for smartphones (and the dollars pouring into the market) was positively tiny compared to today, because people needed full-powered computers to accomplish so many of the tasks that we can now do faster and easier with a mobile device.

    And the vast majority of those companies and individual devs look at the marketplace and say to themselves: it's going to take me $X and Y months to develop my app for each mobile OS I choose to support (there is surprisingly little carry-over between platforms, so it's a lot like starting from scratch on each one), and Platform A has 1,600M active users, Platform I has 600M active users, Platform W has 20M active users, and Platform B has 5M active users. Given that my development and support costs are roughly the same for all 4 platforms, and my time is limited, which ones have the user numbers that will give me the best ROI (return on investment)?

    The math is pretty simple.



    Only Chen and a few BB insiders know how accurate that number is, but from the context, it's approximately the number of devices BB needs to sell each year for the hardware business (including development, support, distribution, advertising, etc. costs) to be profitable. I suspect when he gave out that number that he felt pretty confident that it was an achievable target, but so far, they've only hit about 60% of that goal. That's obviously a matter of great concern for the survival of the hardware business.
    Thank you for the explanation. I am well aware of all of this. My post was in reference only to producing HW profitably not the game of chasing app developer's.

    Posted via CB10
    03-06-15 06:38 PM
  4. anon(679606)'s Avatar
    & that the 10.3.1 OTA did not get to 4.4 is another slap amogst the slaps...
    its not kitkat only jelly bean 4.3 and they do no have ART runtime as of now.
    walt63 likes this.
    03-06-15 06:56 PM
  5. Troy Tiscareno's Avatar
    https://n4bb.com/blackberry-sold-7-m...-devices-2014/
    Warning: don't mess with fiscal and calendar. I'm too - say - 'tired' for the exercice right now (Friday 00:40 PM)!
    Happy weekend to all.
    Cheers!!!
    Assuming this is a reference to my post, of those 7M devices shipped in 2014, how many were BB10 (because BBOS is irrelevant to this discussion)? I'm counting about 4M of those 7M as being BB10 and still in active use, along with 2-3M from 2013, so perhaps that should be 7M total instead of 5M.

    The point still stands - it's a drop in the bucket compared to Android and iOS numbers, which are also based on ACTIVE devices, not total sold - there have been nearly 2.5B Android devices sold since Android 1.0, but only around half are still active.
    03-06-15 07:54 PM
  6. sentimentGX4's Avatar
    Well said. Thank you.

    In terms of HW sales, I read somewhere that in BB's peak when they were # 1, they shipped 11 million devices. Obviously the smartphone world has changed and the market is much bigger. But the question is, if HW sales of 11 million were considered good back in 2007, why not today, putting aside how that translates into overall market share? And is this where Chen came up with his magical 10 million devices #?
    I'm fairly confident that however the numbers are played out, the final opinion is based on the balance sheet. Investors certainly have never believed Samsung to be a better company than Apple despite Samsung selling many more units.

    If Blackberry made as much money selling 10 million units as it did in 2007, public opinion of the company would change considerably. The problem is that 10 million units is a lofty goal Blackberry is far from attaining, the ASP of Blackberry devices have likely gone down, and revenue streams existing in 2007 are no longer relevant in 2015 such as BIS revenue.
    03-07-15 06:08 AM
  7. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    Assuming this is a reference to my post, of those 7M devices shipped in 2014, how many were BB10 (because BBOS is irrelevant to this discussion)? I'm counting about 4M of those 7M as being BB10 and still in active use, along with 2-3M from 2013, so perhaps that should be 7M total instead of 5M.

    The point still stands - it's a drop in the bucket compared to Android and iOS numbers, which are also based on ACTIVE devices, not total sold - there have been nearly 2.5B Android devices sold since Android 1.0, but only around half are still active.
    Why BBOS should be excluded ? That's money they take with pleasure.
    Anyhow, overall market share isn't the point now. Even less for hardware.
    Chen is focused on profitability (margins). And this profitability nowadays sits in enterprises market. That's a clear and loud choice.

    Costs of 'marketing' combined with mandatory high volumes (you have to order a *lot* of components to gain a *decent* price for last gen HW) are not compatible with current financial shape and overall risk.
    While they have a more than decent chance to increase margins with software and services, the financial asphyxiation combined with commercial/inventory risks to release a nerd-killing-specs-phone are just out of question, IMHO.
    They couldn't even sell them for enterprises, as they'd canibalize the Passport. As for the 'slider', Chen said it's "more than that". My reading is that it might fit both worlds. How ? I don't know...


    Posted via CB10
    georg4BB likes this.
    03-07-15 07:13 AM
  8. anon(8865116)'s Avatar
    Why isn't google more lax about google play services? It's because google's entire business model is built on spying on google services users. The "open" nature of android os is the con. It's not open when it's good for nothing without the "eco system": google services and all other android apps which probably by default, by their very nature share with google..
    That doesn't defeat what I'm saying. I'm saying Google would want to open it to more platforms just so they'd have the max amount of people to collect data on...
    03-07-15 09:30 AM
  9. Troy Tiscareno's Avatar
    Why BBOS should be excluded ? That's money they take with pleasure.
    Because I was responding to a question about why developers aren't making apps for BB10.
    Superfly_FR and mikeo007 like this.
    03-07-15 09:34 AM
  10. Troy Tiscareno's Avatar
    That doesn't defeat what I'm saying. I'm saying Google would want to open it to more platforms just so they'd have the max amount of people to collect data on...
    Maintaining control over Google Play and Google Services, and thus 200 OEM manufacturers, far outweighs the the loss of a few million smartphone users, especially since many of those users still access at least some Google services, either through the mobile browser or on another device. Google isn't going to sacrifice their Android business (with around 1.6B active users) for 7M users - it's just that simple. If they felt they really needed BB users, they'd do what they did for iOS, which is: they'd make native Google apps for that platform. But they haven't done this with WinPhone (yet) despite them having >50M active users, so I don't expect them to do it for BB10 anytime soon.
    03-07-15 09:39 AM
  11. Glenn Biddle's Avatar
    Google needs BlackBerry to be able to make head ways into enterprise, a deal would be reciprocal.

    Posted via CB10
    03-07-15 11:04 AM
  12. anon(679606)'s Avatar
    "Google needs BlackBerry" to avoid an antitrust case if there are no competitors except iOS now that Nokia goes android & M$ is almost dead on fones... Google could just do security alone & crush BlackBerry like a stink bug... they could do that simply br crippling the BlackBerry runtime anytime...
    Google needs BlackBerry to be able to make head ways into enterprise, a deal would be reciprocal.

    Posted via CB10
    03-07-15 11:49 AM
  13. anon(8865116)'s Avatar
    Maintaining control over Google Play and Google Services, and thus 200 OEM manufacturers, far outweighs the the loss of a few million smartphone users, especially since many of those users still access at least some Google services, either through the mobile browser or on another device. Google isn't going to sacrifice their Android business (with around 1.6B active users) for 7M users - it's just that simple. If they felt they really needed BB users, they'd do what they did for iOS, which is: they'd make native Google apps for that platform. But they haven't done this with WinPhone (yet) despite them having >50M active users, so I don't expect them to do it for BB10 anytime soon.
    That's a fair point. However, it really depends on the future of mobile devices. After-all, it's only been in the past 10 years where we've seen the explosion of mobile os's and IOT.

    If we are to assume android and apple will hold dominance then I don't expect much to change. But, with low margin Chinese smart phone companies like xiomi. It's only a matter of time where competing app stores and phone OS companies must make the decisions and business cases showing service revenue could possibly make them more money than os isolationism.

    Frankly, I'm excited about the times we live in. I'm a part of a generation that grew up without computers but eventually had technology ubiquitously integrated into our most needed consumer products. Now we are just complaining about who does it best
    03-07-15 12:05 PM
  14. joejuck's Avatar
    I would actually 100% support BlackBerry on android. If blackberry converted bb10 somehow into a launcher it would work. Just how samsung, htc, etc has their 'skin' ontop of android. This could work perfectly even with having the bb hub off to the right side like how htc has their "blinkfeed" off to the right side of the UI.

    They could port all their apps over and have especially their amazing keyboard.

    I think it would be a perfect way to stop the complaints for lack of apps and have a really solid foundation of an os.

    Posted via CB10
    03-07-15 01:24 PM
  15. southlander's Avatar
    That's true, but that still doesn't keep it from being good publicity. And the hack itself has a lot of companies scrambling to patch vulnerabilities.

    BlackBerry is still the leader in Enterprise MDM.

    Posted from CB10 on my classy Passport--TBUCK64
    Yeah I think their software and services future is bright. Seems to be anyway.

    Posted via the CrackBerry App for Android
    03-07-15 04:57 PM
  16. eg24hrs's Avatar
    Dig around the official BlackBerry blog. There is a lot of support for the BlackBerry Developer community. Why do you think they launched the Developer Elite Program? These devs get a free phones each year to develop BlackBerry apps. Also, a primary reason behind launching the Amazon app store for BlackBerry was to address a the need from the non-business iOS or Android users for more apps. A deal for Android's larger base of apps that work with the runtime branded by Amazon is better than a deal with Google. Snap being "unofficially supported" means that BlackBerry couldn't go to them to pitch more apps to customers. BlackBerry is by no means intending tell devs to make Android apps at all.

    Lastly, and on another note, it is a definite positive marketing strategy for BlackBerry to move push features to other OS's . If it's difficult to bring fresh iOS and Android users to BB10 why not take BB10 to them Give them bits that they will like here and there as bait. Once they experience BB10 they are more likely to want the full BlackBerry hardware experience.

    Posted via CB10
    03-07-15 05:35 PM
  17. anon(679606)'s Avatar
    yeah, bright future, so I just sold my BlackBerry stock & put it all down on Radio Shack stock...

    Yeah I think their software and services future is bright. Seems to be anyway.

    Posted via the CrackBerry App for Android
    03-07-15 06:20 PM
  18. DJM626's Avatar
    Why in the world would anyone want a phone with two OSes? That'd mean you'd have to learn how to operate two different OSes, and constantly change from one to another during work and after work. Doesn't sound practical to me. Imagine giving a phone like that to an employee of yours who's come from iOS.
    If anything, I think Google sees how BlackBerry's QNX can be a useful tool when it comes time for Google to push their services onto IOT devices. I think both sides are at the early stages of making negotiations to exchange enterprise markets for app stores, then their partnership will either become deeper or Google will purchase BlackBerry.


    Posted via CB10
    I really don't think it would really be that much different then say running windows on a mac, I have never done it myself, but I know many that have and do and tell me that it is not difficult. Best of both worlds I would say
    03-07-15 06:51 PM
  19. The Big Picture's Avatar
    I think blackberry should make android phones, at least to test the market and see how the market reacts.

    Just don't use the BlackBerry name. Start a new brand and company, that way maybe there's a way around the OHA alliance.

    Call it blackdroid or something.

    This way they don't have to dilute again their already damaged brand.

    Oh and keep BlackBerry 10 development as well as devices for a super niche market.

    Posted via CB10
    03-08-15 09:10 AM
  20. 00_Agent's Avatar
    I think this make sense. I just hope that I can maintain the BlackBerry 10's unique OS. Idc how android will be implemented on the 2016 Phone but I know for sure if it does stay with it's original OS, I will stay with BlackBerry 10! Otherwise I will look into windows 10 and maybe come back later when the anger is gone 😂

    #TeamBlackBerry

    Posted via CB10
    03-08-15 12:10 PM
  21. pstrusi's Avatar
    I'm sticking to BlackBerry because I love BlackBerry 10, If I would prefer the Android OS I would go in the android direction because is even cheaper... I understand that BlackBerry is a company and they have to make money so they must do whatever is better to increase the company profit but in that case I would give a try to Windows Phone because I can't with Android, I've tried but I can't.

    Posted via CB10
    Same here. Android is simply a horrible cheap and unsecure OS. I've given to it a couple of trials but I can't take more than 3 days of pain with it. Many ( Android fans ) might have this opinion offensive and I understand them. It 'd not make sense at all to see BB going to blend with Android. It would make more sense to see MSFT: the possibilities of better market share, better OS, better hardware..etc could create an interesting firm.

    It's well known that Android and iOS have become the most 2 popular OS, but not the best for sure. Few days ago I decided to test Android in one of its best smartphone, with really amazing specs. This is my personal view of pros and cons:

    Android Pros:
    - The most used OS in the world, which makes it to prevail for some quite time
    - It works seemingly with all the excellent Google services
    - The hardware specs of their high rank brands are really impressive
    - Big App ecosystem

    Android Cons:
    - Terribly disorganized, incomplete...etc bottom line: non-efficient, non-reliable
    - Highly insecure: you and your personal data are always registered by almost any app
    - The high specs tend to spend the battery in few hours of activity
    - The interconnectivity is not as good, reliable, quick and complete as in BB

    Blackberry is making a huge effort at fast paced to survive the consequences of past bad decisions as not giving much importance to Ecosystem, low specs hardware..etc, but I'm pretty confident that it will prevail, simply cause the company is addressing its "cons" in good way and its system is still the best smartphone OS ever.
    03-08-15 01:06 PM
  22. anon(679606)'s Avatar
    webOS (the latest iteration of palmOS) was a very mature ecosystem born of portability & alas pawned off for TVs & washing machines from LG with the open sourced code going nowhere... lesson, with mismanagement a superior OS (way more than bbOS) is no guaranty of market success... BlackBerry is on the skids through a parade of poor managers ongoing...
    03-08-15 01:16 PM
  23. Thesmartmale's Avatar
    As long as they keep a phone or 2 with BB10 then it would be cool!

    Posted via CB10
    03-08-15 01:40 PM
  24. The Big Picture's Avatar
    As long as they keep a phone or 2 with BB10 then it would be cool!

    Posted via CB10
    I really hope the slider will be a bb10

    Posted via CB10
    03-08-15 02:47 PM
  25. anon(679606)'s Avatar
    They could offer OS of choice; bb10 w/droidRT or android with hub&blend&bbm, etc & for those who change their mind a free way to switch... dual boot could work too...
    03-08-15 03:01 PM
461 ... 1011121314 ...

Similar Threads

  1. BBM for Android passes 100 million downloads on Google Play
    By CrackBerry News in forum CrackBerry.com News Discussion
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: 03-30-15, 09:03 AM
  2. Replies: 5
    Last Post: 03-23-15, 02:56 PM
  3. BlackBerry World didn't downland any app or anything
    By Mani Vijayan in forum BlackBerry Z10
    Replies: 14
    Last Post: 03-08-15, 10:10 PM
  4. Suggestion: Blackberry Credit to upgrade to the Classic
    By fireboy2281 in forum BlackBerry Classic
    Replies: 17
    Last Post: 03-05-15, 11:12 AM
  5. Gone back to 10.3.0
    By vhl71 in forum BlackBerry Z30
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: 03-04-15, 01:42 PM
LINK TO POST COPIED TO CLIPBOARD