10-09-14 07:36 AM
61 123
tools
  1. mnc76's Avatar
    First, not to be picky by its "Numbers Do Not Lie" or "Numbers Don't Lie". And yes, they lie all of the time. Let's take a very easy statistical example.

    Store A sells 100 phones and 2 are BlackBerry devices. BlackBerry grabbed 2% of sales in that store.

    Store B sells 1 phone and it is a BlackBerry device. BlackBerry grabbed 100% of sales in that store.

    If you are purely looking at market share then Store B appears to be doing better 100%: versus 2%.

    But if you're looking at which store made the most money, Store A sold twice as many BlackBerry devices.

    So I guess it's not that numbers do or do not lie, it's that they can be skewed to tell a certain story depending on how they are presented with the use of many potential variables.

    White Q10 on VZW from Philly
    Worst than that: the question is where did the 2% July US marketshare figure come from in the first place?

    Kantar no longer show BlackBerry marketshare numbers--it lumps BlackBerry into the "other" category.

    So how did this reporter extract 2% for BlackBerry from the "other" group? The "other" group is the sum total marketshare of many brands--not just BlackBerry!

    Hmmmm :/

    Posted via CB10
    08-10-14 03:55 PM
  2. theRock1975's Avatar
    Worst than that: the question is where did the 2% July US marketshare figure come from in the first place?

    Kantar no longer show BlackBerry marketshare numbers--it lumps BlackBerry into the "other" category.

    So how did this reporter extract 2% for BlackBerry from the "other" group? The "other" group is the sum total marketshare of many brands--not just BlackBerry!

    Hmmmm :/

    Posted via CB10
    Other was 2.7%. BlackBerry alone had 2.0%.

    BlackBerry Market share rising in US??-img_20140810_183157.png
    BlackBerry Market share rising in US??-crackberry-image-21-.jpg

    Posted via CB10
    mnc76 likes this.
    08-10-14 05:37 PM
  3. mnc76's Avatar
    Other was 2.7%. BlackBerry alone had 2.0%.

    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	IMG_20140810_183157.png 
Views:	2636 
Size:	222.3 KB 
ID:	290071
    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	CrackBerry Image(21).jpg 
Views:	2638 
Size:	39.0 KB 
ID:	290072

    Posted via CB10
    Thanks!!!

    Then it's officially official! Two straight quarters of US marketshare growth for BlackBerry!

    I realize that at 2 percent it's not yet time to 'drop the mic' and put up a "Mission Accomplished!" banner, but as far as I'm concerned this is still great news.

    It's a win in a small battle in what will likely be a long war--but it's a win none the less!

    Posted via CB10
    Last edited by mnc76; 08-11-14 at 07:48 AM.
    theRock1975 and spikesolie like this.
    08-11-14 02:33 AM
  4. Banco's Avatar
    First, not to be picky by its "Numbers Do Not Lie" or "Numbers Don't Lie". And yes, they lie all of the time. Let's take a very easy statistical example.

    Store A sells 100 phones and 2 are BlackBerry devices. BlackBerry grabbed 2% of sales in that store.

    Store B sells 1 phone and it is a BlackBerry device. BlackBerry grabbed 100% of sales in that store.

    If you are purely looking at market share then Store B appears to be doing better 100%: versus 2%.

    But if you're looking at which store made the most money, Store A sold twice as many BlackBerry devices.

    So I guess it's not that numbers do or do not lie, it's that they can be skewed to tell a certain story depending on how they are presented with the use of many potential variables.

    White Q10 on VZW from Philly
    You're right - but I think that's exactly why people are reacting cautiously, but with a degree of hope, rather than trumpeting these figures. They are mildly indicative of an improvement, not grounds for a party.
    08-11-14 05:10 AM
  5. anon1727506's Avatar
    You're right - but I think that's exactly why people are reacting cautiously, but with a degree of hope, rather than trumpeting these figures. They are mildly indicative of an improvement, not grounds for a party.
    IF this is a "trend" then it is grounds for a party.... No new devices in the US (most over a year old), no marketing, no carrier support. Has to mean that Enterprise is buying into BES!
    theRock1975 likes this.
    08-11-14 07:54 AM
  6. Banco's Avatar
    IF this is a "trend" then it is grounds for a party.... No new devices in the US (most over a year old), no marketing, no carrier support. Has to mean that Enterprise is buying into BES!
    Yep - IF is the key word of course!
    08-11-14 08:22 AM
  7. theRock1975's Avatar
    I think the discounts have a lot to do with it. Z10 is a 1.5 year old phone but its holding up well. For $199 unlocked it's a great deal.
    Check the CB homepage. Z30 is $349 in the US for a limited time. This should move a lot of devices back to school. I ordered two this morning because I'm betting this will cause another temporary sold out sign soon..
    Andy_bb_king likes this.
    08-11-14 09:59 AM
  8. Ment's Avatar
    I think the discounts have a lot to do with it. Z10 is a 1.5 year old phone but its holding up well. For $199 unlocked it's a great deal.
    Check the CB homepage. Z30 is $349 in the US for a limited time. This should move a lot of devices back to school. I ordered two this morning because I'm betting this will cause another temporary sold out sign soon..
    That makes some sense. The prices have gone down enough that BBOS users will buy BB10 devices. Note marketshare in this discussion is sales not installed base.
    08-11-14 11:25 AM
  9. Banco's Avatar
    That makes some sense. The prices have gone down enough that BBOS users will buy BB10 devices. Note marketshare in this discussion is sales not installed base.
    Yes. I see the Z10 is now on offer at 135 on the BlackBerry store. So I've bought my niece one to replace her Curve.

    Posted via CB10
    08-11-14 01:15 PM
  10. mnc76's Avatar
    Yep - IF is the key word of course!
    Isn't two consecutive quarters of growth a trend by definition? It may be short lived, of course, but you only need two points to plot a line.

    But I'm no finance expert.

    Posted via CB10
    08-11-14 01:18 PM
  11. Banco's Avatar
    Isn't two consecutive quarters of growth a trend by definition? It may be short lived, of course, but you only need two points to plot a line.

    But I'm no finance expert.

    Posted via CB10
    Yep, but not necessarily a meaningful trend. What is and what isn't meaningful....well we could argue on here for a fair while on that one

    Posted via CB10
    08-11-14 01:29 PM
  12. RubberChicken76's Avatar
    Ha! Maybe we can do what the Windows Phone users do and brag about having the highest growth rate of any platform. ;-)

    I was a bit surprised to see this as well ... for the simple reason of there not having been a new device in the US for a year, a corporate push and moving out of a carrier altogether. Might just be a rounding error though
    08-12-14 07:14 PM
  13. silversmith75's Avatar
    2% market share is terrible. Any single digit share isn't something to be proud about. Continued upward trend after numerous quarters would be news.

    Posted via CB10 - Z30STA100-5/10.2.1.3247/Telus
    .6% market share is terrible. 2%. In 6 months is awesome.

    Posted via CB10
    08-13-14 09:31 AM
  14. Po Po 244's Avatar
    How and where can I purchase some BB stock. I'm positive and want in people. New Z30 owner (even added an ATT contract in order to own).


    Sent from my iPad using CB Forums
    08-14-14 12:23 AM
  15. anon1727506's Avatar
    How and where can I purchase some BB stock. I'm positive and want in people. New Z30 owner (even added an ATT contract in order to own).


    Sent from my iPad using CB Forums
    One thing you might want to consider.... increase in sales of devices, does not always equal an increase in profits. And profits is what makes a company and a stock valuable. Last quarter they were only in the black because of some tax savings and selling most of their Canadian properties.

    Selling the Z10 at $200 isn't making BlackBerry any money - except for if it's inventory that has already been written off last year. So on paper it might be profit, but based on what the devices cost to make, storage, shipping..... And even the Z30 at $349, there isn't much profit there for a company like BlackBerry. Of course if these are device sales to enterprise customers, there is the added revenues from BES. But those margins are not where they once were.... starting at $19 for a year is cheap.

    Going from 300% profit back in the good old days, to 20% or 30% is not a long term business model. Know if the Passport comes out at $699 and sells well and then the Classic and it sells well in the $449 (or higher) price point and their marketshare grows. That would be a safer time to buy stock.
    08-14-14 10:50 AM
  16. lnichols's Avatar
    One thing you might want to consider.... increase in sales of devices, does not always equal an increase in profits. And profits is what makes a company and a stock valuable. Last quarter they were only in the black because of some tax savings and selling most of their Canadian properties.

    Selling the Z10 at $200 isn't making BlackBerry any money - except for if it's inventory that has already been written off last year. So on paper it might be profit, but based on what the devices cost to make, storage, shipping..... And even the Z30 at $349, there isn't much profit there for a company like BlackBerry. Of course if these are device sales to enterprise customers, there is the added revenues from BES. But those margins are not where they once were.... starting at $19 for a year is cheap.

    Going from 300% profit back in the good old days, to 20% or 30% is not a long term business model. Know if the Passport comes out at $699 and sells well and then the Classic and it sells well in the $449 (or higher) price point and their marketshare grows. That would be a safer time to buy stock.
    If the Classic sells well at $449, with the same internals as the Z10/Q10 as is now being reported which you can buy for $209 and $349 respectively, then BlackBerry will have found a bunch of suckers! I'd say this phone is going to be very value priced to try to get as many legacy users on board. Wouldn't be surprised if it comes in less than $399, and maybe even $349.

    Posted with a BlackBerry Z10
    08-14-14 01:04 PM
  17. propeller10's Avatar
    If the Classic sells well at $449, with the same internals as the Z10/Q10 as is now being reported which you can buy for $209 and $349 respectively, then BlackBerry will have found a bunch of suckers! I'd say this phone is going to be very value priced to try to get as many legacy users on board. Wouldn't be surprised if it comes in less than $399, and maybe even $349.

    Posted with a BlackBerry Z10
    Classic should cost at most $250.

    Posted via CB10
    08-14-14 01:50 PM
  18. lawliet4401728's Avatar
    Keep dreaming

    Posted via CB10
    08-14-14 07:03 PM
  19. mnc76's Avatar
    Seems like the media is starting to notice this as well. Stock is up today.

    BlackBerry shipments rise under Chen's watch : Globe and Mail
    August 14, 2014

    http://m.theglobeandmail.com/report-...ticle20071430/

    Posted via CB10
    08-14-14 07:48 PM
  20. howarmat's Avatar
    Seems like the media is starting to notice this as well. Stock is up today.

    BlackBerry shipments rise under Chen's watch : Globe and Mail
    August 14, 2014

    BlackBerry shipments rise under Chen?s watch - The Globe and Mail

    Posted via CB10
    i will still wait to see the next ER before i agree with the IDC results. Especially since their quarter is not over yet. IDC quarters are not the same as BBs
    theRock1975 and techvisor like this.
    08-14-14 09:13 PM
  21. mnc76's Avatar
    i will still wait to see the next ER before i agree with the IDC results. Especially since their quarter is not over yet. IDC quarters are not the same as BBs
    When it comes to BlackBerry, I agree that it makes sense to wait for the concrete numbers before celebrating (we've all been burnt too too many times before with over-optimism).

    How the media can spin results
    Check this out. SAME DATA, but two WILDLY different headlines about the 15% increase in handset sales under John Chen :

    Globe and Mail
    BlackBerry shipments rise under Chen's watch
    BlackBerry shipments rise under Chen?s watch - The Globe and Mail

    Financial Post
    BlackBerry Ltd left behind as global smartphone shipments top 300M units
    BlackBerry Ltd left behind as global smartphone shipments top 300M units | Financial Post

    Exactly the same data, except the Globe and Mail's headline highlights the fact that shipments have increased, whereas the Financial Post headline focuses on how BlackBerry still has a small share of total smartphone shipments, and discounts any benefit to increased handset shipments.

    Glass half full or glass half empty?
    08-15-14 03:29 AM
  22. howarmat's Avatar
    When it comes to BlackBerry, I agree that it makes sense to wait for the concrete numbers before celebrating (we've all been burnt too too many times before with over-optimism).

    How the media can spin results
    Check this out. SAME DATA, but two WILDLY different headlines about the 15% increase in handset sales under John Chen :

    Globe and Mail
    BlackBerry shipments rise under Chen's watch
    BlackBerry shipments rise under Chen?s watch - The Globe and Mail

    Financial Post
    BlackBerry Ltd left behind as global smartphone shipments top 300M units
    BlackBerry Ltd left behind as global smartphone shipments top 300M units | Financial Post

    Exactly the same data, except the Globe and Mail's headline highlights the fact that shipments have increased, whereas the Financial Post headline focuses on how BlackBerry still has a small share of total smartphone shipments, and discounts any benefit to increased handset shipments.

    Glass half full or glass half empty?
    i will agree but I certainly see the FP position. Even if BB did move up .2 million in shipments over the quarter in the grand scheme of smart phone sales that is rounding error. Plus we dont know if was BB10 devices or if the newly released 9900 was a huge hit. Looking at bb in its own bubble the increase is great. But overall unless they start increasing every quarter and by bigger than .2 million they still arent going to be profitable when they need 10 million a year and that is BB main objective. Chen needs atleast 2 million for the quarter and 1.5 of them to be bb10 to really show they are still in the game IMO
    anon1727506 and techvisor like this.
    08-15-14 09:37 AM
  23. mnc76's Avatar
    i will agree but I certainly see the FP position. Even if BB did move up .2 million in shipments over the quarter in the grand scheme of smart phone sales that is rounding error. Plus we dont know if was BB10 devices or if the newly released 9900 was a huge hit. Looking at bb in its own bubble the increase is great. But overall unless they start increasing every quarter and by bigger than .2 million they still arent going to be profitable when they need 10 million a year and that is BB main objective. Chen needs atleast 2 million for the quarter and 1.5 of them to be bb10 to really show they are still in the game IMO
    I agree with everything you said. The only thing that I'd point out is that: The "BlackBerry left behind" story is old news by now (e.g.: not really even "news" at this point). Every article on BlackBerry in the last 2 years has always started off with an obligatory summary of how BlackBerry plummeted from first place to a distant last place in the face of increased competition from Apple and Android.

    The "news" is not that they have tiny smartphone sales (this has been well-reported on ad infinitum), the "news" is that declining sales have (at least temporarily) bottomed out.
    08-15-14 12:26 PM
  24. anon6040766's Avatar
    It would be really helpful if when posting a price point projection you could include what country and carrier and if on or off contract. Example: $349 for the Classic off contract isn't much at all, but would be laughable in the US on any carrier if required a contract. New contact iPhones, GS5's, Notes, etc. sell for $199 and $299. For someone to switch from an iPhone or Android to a Classic and re-up their contract in the US, BlackBerry better find a way to price between $99 and $150.


    Sent from my...go ahead and guess?
    08-15-14 02:31 PM
  25. anon1727506's Avatar
    If the Classic sells well at $449, with the same internals as the Z10/Q10 as is now being reported which you can buy for $209 and $349 respectively, then BlackBerry will have found a bunch of suckers! I'd say this phone is going to be very value priced to try to get as many legacy users on board. Wouldn't be surprised if it comes in less than $399, and maybe even $349.

    Posted with a BlackBerry Z10
    If they hadn't written off the Z10 back last year, it wouldn't be selling for $199 today. Q10 is pretty much the same and it's $100 more after being available for over a year... and by all accounts now being EOL. Launch day I very much doubt there will be a $399 or $349 Classic... BlackBerry has to make money and Enterprise is their only shot to do that now. While a consumer might balk at two year old specs and a $449 price tag (wild guess), Enterprise isn't going to care.

    Really think the fans here that expect great specs and low prices are going to be very disappointed in the future. There will be no more over building of devices and huge markdowns that made the PlayBook and Z10 so attractive to some.
    08-18-14 09:49 AM
61 123

Similar Threads

  1. Pebble Smartwatch on BlackBerry 10
    By GEO1ER in forum General BlackBerry Discussion
    Replies: 28
    Last Post: 12-06-14, 06:14 PM
  2. Blackberry 9360 died
    By el_diablo92 in forum BlackBerry Curve 9370/9360/9350
    Replies: 5
    Last Post: 10-07-14, 11:10 AM
  3. Why Apple should buy BlackBerry (Article)
    By gebco in forum General BlackBerry Discussion
    Replies: 65
    Last Post: 08-11-14, 10:35 AM
  4. Burn out BlackBerry USB charger
    By cellphonejunkey in forum BlackBerry Z30
    Replies: 11
    Last Post: 08-10-14, 02:39 PM
  5. BIS over 2g/3g being 'forced' in UK??
    By jmzed in forum General BlackBerry Discussion
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: 08-08-14, 07:50 PM
LINK TO POST COPIED TO CLIPBOARD