1. Zarpan's Avatar
    A more accurate take on things is that both BlackBerry and Nokia/Windows Phone have a lot of work to do. Neither is really winning the race for third place right now or getting as much traction as they would like.

    However, I would like to correct the somewhat inaccurate notion that Windows Phone is thrashing BlackBerry.

    Nokia is selling more Lumias than BlackBerry is selling total phones, but BlackBerry is still selling more in total dollar volume. In the consumer goods industry, we most often focus on dollar share as the key metric (since selling 5 units at $1 shouldn't count more than selling 1 unit at $5). The smartphone writeups typically focus on unit share, but that's likely since it's just easier to track that than to calculate dollar shares.

    Nokia Lumia sales in most recent quarter: $1.52 billion
    BlackBerry hardware sales in most recent quarter: $2.181 billion

    BB10 hardware sales alone are in the $1.2 to $1.25 billion range. Most of the Lumia sales are WP8, so WP8 may have a slight edge on BB10 sales if they represent more than 80% of Nokia's Lumia sales (WP8 was 67% of Nokia's Lumia sales by units in the previous quarter).

    Nokia is going to sell more units since they've moved heavily into the mid to lower end of the market. BlackBerry devices sell for 50% more though on average, so people still spend more money on BlackBerry devices. Of course, both companies still have to do a lot more volume to really turn the corner.
    07-18-13 10:29 AM
  2. ravenskman1's Avatar
    Maybe they should team up and focus mainly Nokia WP8 on the lower to mid-high markets with the occasionaly BB10 device (such as Q5) and have BB focus on the mid-high to high end range with Nokia releasing one "flagship" phone every year. The two companies can promote together, share endorsements, and work together to eat into this duopoloy that is Apple and Samsung. Once they have clearly made it a 4 horse race than shake hands and part ways.

    ya I know, would never happen. Just bored at work throwing random ideas at the wall for fun lol.
    07-18-13 10:59 AM
  3. heymaggie's Avatar
    The rest of the smartphone ecosystem such as carriers, accessory makers, advertisers and developers care about units sold, though.
    anon1727506 and JeepBB like this.
    07-18-13 11:05 AM
  4. Zarpan's Avatar
    The rest of the smartphone ecosystem such as carriers, accessory makers, advertisers and developers care about units sold, though.
    There's probably some correlation between the selling price of a smartphone and the value of that customer to carriers, developers etc.... Someone buying the Lumia 520 may be on a cheaper plan and not generate as much monthly revenue as a Z10/Q10 customer for example. I don't have anything concrete to back that up for carriers though.

    I can say that units sold is only one component of what matters to developers though since I help run a gaming company. Average revenue per user is another important metric. One thing that developers have noticed is that Android users usually tend to generate much less revenue per install than an iOS user (about 75% less). I think that's largely due to the proliferation of cheap Android devices, which boost user numbers, but also indicate customers that are unlikely to spend significant amounts of money. If you spend $600 on a phone, you're going to be more likely on average to spend money on games and other apps than someone who spent $200 on their phone.

    So if developers pay attention to the average selling price of Windows Phones vs. BlackBerry's, they may discount Windows Phone users somewhat when doing market calculations for development priority.

    It's like ratings for TV shows. Total ratings are important, but advertisers often focus on ratings among key demographics more. If BlackBerry can put together some information suggesting that their users are more affluent, have more disposable income, etc..., that may negate any unit advantage that Windows Phone may enjoy. I don't know the demographics of Windows Phone users, but the average selling price of Lumias is lower than that of the BlackBerry 7 devices which are primarily sold in emerging markets, so it's pretty likely that many Lumia owners are either of modest wealth or are frugal.
    MisterMe11 likes this.
    07-18-13 12:54 PM
  5. tiziano27's Avatar
    The difference is too big, 9 million WP8 (adding Samsung, etc.) vs 3 million BB10.
    BlackBerry users buy less apps, are more focused in productivity. The q10 or the q5 aren't the best phones for apps.

    If WP8 keep this 6 million gap for a couple of quarters It will be irreversible. Windows tablets are growing too and developers can reuse a big part of their source code on both devices, Windows 8 apps even run in Windows 8 PCs.

    BlackBerry can't compete in the consumer market with the 3 big tech companies, the hope is in the corporate market.
    07-18-13 01:53 PM
  6. m1a1mg's Avatar
    There's probably some correlation between the selling price of a smartphone and the value of that customer to carriers, developers etc.... Someone buying the Lumia 520 may be on a cheaper plan and not generate as much monthly revenue as a Z10/Q10 customer for example. I don't have anything concrete to back that up for carriers though.
    That makes no sense at all. Both are smart phones. Both would cost you the same amount at Verizon, for example.

    I also noticed that you didn't really make an equal comparison to begin with.
    gwanstarr, JeepBB and anon1727506 like this.
    07-18-13 02:42 PM
  7. MisterMe11's Avatar
    I think it makes sense. Someone who buys a cheaper phone is likely to want a cheaper plan, buy less apps, less accessories, less multimedia purchases, less likely to upgrade early etc. Generally speaking. So a full-price, day 1 purchaser of a Z10 is likely worth more to the ecosystem than a Lumia 510 purchaser.

    That makes no sense at all. Both are smart phones. Both would cost you the same amount at Verizon, for example.

    I also noticed that you didn't really make an equal comparison to begin with.
    07-18-13 04:41 PM
  8. RubberChicken76's Avatar
    The difference is too big, 9 million WP8 (adding Samsung, etc.)
    Do you have a link for the Windows Phone sales of non Nokia devices? I've not seen any other manufacturer like HTC or Samsung or Huewei actually break that out.



    BlackBerry users buy less apps, are more focused in productivity.
    Also, do you have a link that shows the average revenue per user by platform? I've never heard it said that BlackBerry users buy less apps. Rather, i've heard they pay more for them but there are fewer BlackBerry owners than iPhone and Android.

    Show Me the Money: Which Mobile Apps are Profitable for Developers?

    Windows tablets are growing too
    Well, Microsoft really took a major write down on their own ... nearly a billion dollars. Almost double what RIM took on PlayBook almost two years ago for perspective.

    http://ca.reuters.com/article/techno...96H19K20130718
    07-18-13 04:51 PM
  9. m1a1mg's Avatar
    I think it makes sense. Someone who buys a cheaper phone is likely to want a cheaper plan, buy less apps, less accessories, less multimedia purchases, less likely to upgrade early etc. Generally speaking. So a full-price, day 1 purchaser of a Z10 is likely worth more to the ecosystem than a Lumia 510 purchaser.
    How, both are smartphones and bring the same amount to Verizon?
    gwanstarr likes this.
    07-18-13 07:33 PM
  10. gwanstarr's Avatar
    How, both are smartphones and bring the same amount to Verizon?
    How can you enter into a challenge yet be completely blind when it's explained to you?

    Maybe numbers will help.....

    Two people buy smartphone. One is a WP and the other a BB. The WP costs $99. The BlackBerry cost $199.

    Theory goes like this:

    The person buying the WP is most likely a cheap MoFo and wants as little data as possible and no upgrades and pays $40 a month on his plan. $40*24 months contract carrier makes $960 from the plan.

    On the other hand, the person who buys the BlackBerry is not as cheap as Mr WP and gets the bells and whistles on his plan. Extra data and a bunch of other upgrades and pays $70 per month. Over the course of the contract $70*24 the carrier pulls in $1680 .

    In the scenario and theory I just laid out, the carrier makes $720 more on the person who bought the BlackBerry or 75% more revenue.


    Posted via CB10
    07-19-13 06:24 PM
  11. Nathan Bael's Avatar
    How can you enter into a challenge yet be completely blind when it's explained to you?

    Maybe numbers will help.....

    Two people buy smartphone. One is a WP and the other a BB. The WP costs $99. The BlackBerry cost $199.

    Theory goes like this:

    The person buying the WP is most likely a cheap MoFo and wants as little data as possible and no upgrades and pays $40 a month on his plan. $40*24 months contract carrier makes $960 from the plan.

    On the other hand, the person who buys the BlackBerry is not as cheap as Mr WP and gets the bells and whistles on his plan. Extra data and a bunch of other upgrades and pays $70 per month. Over the course of the contract $70*24 the carrier pulls in $1680 .

    In the scenario and theory I just laid out, the carrier makes $720 more on the person who bought the BlackBerry or 75% more revenue.


    Posted via CB10
    Which is good in a 2 to 1 game but loses if it crosses over to 3 to 1 or more.

    While I like BB10, I would like to see 4 (or more) viable smartphone operating systems.
    JeepBB likes this.
    07-19-13 06:30 PM
  12. m1a1mg's Avatar
    How can you enter into a challenge yet be completely blind when it's explained to you?

    Maybe numbers will help.....

    Two people buy smartphone. One is a WP and the other a BB. The WP costs $99. The BlackBerry cost $199.

    Theory goes like this:

    The person buying the WP is most likely a cheap MoFo and wants as little data as possible and no upgrades and pays $40 a month on his plan. $40*24 months contract carrier makes $960 from the plan.

    On the other hand, the person who buys the BlackBerry is not as cheap as Mr WP and gets the bells and whistles on his plan. Extra data and a bunch of other upgrades and pays $70 per month. Over the course of the contract $70*24 the carrier pulls in $1680 .

    In the scenario and theory I just laid out, the carrier makes $720 more on the person who bought the BlackBerry or 75% more revenue.


    Posted via CB10
    I'm sure you think you're really smart, but ALL smartphones plans on VZW run the same cost. Now, I can pay for more data, but what specifically would lead me to need more data with BBOS10 (FACTS please). I won't use more data based on a different type of smartphone. Actually, if I spent more money on my phone, it might limit me on what plan I chose.

    You make a huge ASSumption that someone is going to add more bells and whistles to their plan because they spent more to start with. You also don't seem to understand Verizon plans at all.

    So, despite your snide reply about my intelligence, you seem to be the unarmed person in this battle of wits.

    Genius.
    JeepBB, gwanstarr and anon1727506 like this.
    07-19-13 07:56 PM
  13. gwanstarr's Avatar
    I'm sure you think you're really smart, but ALL smartphones plans on VZW run the same cost. Now, I can pay for more data, but what specifically would lead me to need more data with BBOS10 (FACTS please). I won't use more data based on a different type of smartphone. Actually, if I spent more money on my phone, it might limit me on what plan I chose.

    You make a huge ASSumption that someone is going to add more bells and whistles to their plan because they spent more to start with. You also don't seem to understand Verizon plans at all.

    So, despite your snide reply about my intelligence, you seem to be the unarmed person in this battle of wits.

    Genius.
    #1 - I readily admit that I am not that bright, but I won't get into what that then implies.

    #2 - I never said anything about your intelligence, I was simply replying to your inability to properly understand what somebody posted and thought I would ASSist - It was theoretical - a theory - which I was helping clarify. I am not with Vzn and do not know all the plans are the same.... You could have explained that in your post rather than appear like the point flew past you.... But that is really besides the point regarding the theory that BB people tend to spend more $

    #3 - I never made any ASSumptions because it was a theoretical scenario regardless of the carrier....but can now make a few about you now that you have clearly shown how much of a hot-head you are and also how sensitive you are coming across.

    #4 - Chill --- I wasn't looking to pick a fight and apologize if you took it that way. It's just an internet forum - no need to take things so personal just as I am not by you calling me names and personally attacking me.
    Last edited by gwanstarr; 07-19-13 at 10:51 PM.
    07-19-13 08:24 PM
  14. gwanstarr's Avatar
    Posted via CB10
    07-19-13 10:49 PM
  15. lnichols's Avatar
    Developers don't care how much the manufacturer makes per device, they care about how many people they can reach via an app on the device. So great they are making more per phone, but it isn't going to get devs on board.

    Posted via CB10
    JeepBB likes this.
    07-20-13 07:59 AM
  16. JeepBB's Avatar
    It does seem obvious to me that if WP sells 3 units to every BB10 phone that is sold, then there are going to be more WP users out there... each of them buying Apps (presumably 3x as many as those on BB10), each of them making calls/internet (3x as many again), and (as a market) being 3x more attractive to developers. That trend continues to accelerate each quarter as the 3x multiple operates and the differential in number of phone owners increases.

    Yes, BB may well get more dollar value per phone than say Nokia get per phone but BB are the only entity that profits from a situation where they are being outsold 3:1... everyone else just cares about the numbers of phones out there and what that says in terms of being a bigger market for them to exploit.

    Oh, and my high-end Lumia is on a max'ed out dataplan. Regardless of how cheap a MoFo's the owners of the other two Lumia's that were bought (3:1 sales recall) - the carriers undoubtedly love us more collectively than the solitary BB10 "high-roller".
    Last edited by JeepBB; 07-20-13 at 10:12 AM.
    bekkay and m1a1mg like this.
    07-20-13 08:37 AM
  17. anon1727506's Avatar
    Early adopters spent more on BlackBerry devices. Its becoming apparent that consumers won't. Think you will see margins on hardware sales fall, significantly for BlackBerry.

    And I would not be surprised if BlackBerry isn't costing carriers more


    Posted via CB10
    07-20-13 01:13 PM
  18. m1a1mg's Avatar
    #1 - I readily admit that I am not that bright, but I won't get into what that then implies.
    Wow, you continue down condescension highway, don't you.

    #2 - I never said anything about your intelligence, I was simply replying to your inability to properly understand what somebody posted and thought I would ASSist - It was theoretical - a theory - which I was helping clarify. I am not with Vzn and do not know all the plans are the same.... You could have explained that in your post rather than appear like the point flew past you.... But that is really besides the point regarding the theory that BB people tend to spend more $
    This isn't the playground. Other grown-ups posting here want you to be able to substantiate theories, not just pull them out your ***. None of you have been able to do that. I specifically used Verizon because I know about their business. Maybe you should have understood that prior to jumping in with both barrels blasting. There is absolutely no reason to ASSume that a BBRY user, having spent more to buy a phone, would continue to do so.

    #3 - I never made any ASSumptions because it was a theoretical scenario regardless of the carrier....but can now make a few about you now that you have clearly shown how much of a hot-head you are and also how sensitive you are coming across.
    Don't go getting all sensitive on me. You choose to be snide, I'm being snide back. Take note that I used a carrier. Twice. Then you jumped in. Brilliant.

    #4 - Chill --- I wasn't looking to pick a fight and apologize if you took it that way. It's just an internet forum - no need to take things so personal just as I am not by you calling me names and personally attacking me.
    From where I sit, you seem to be the one getting sensitive. You posted this: How can you enter into a challenge yet be completely blind when it's explained to you? . Gosh, why would I take that as an insult?
    JeepBB and gwanstarr like this.
    07-20-13 03:28 PM
  19. gwanstarr's Avatar
    Wow, you continue down condescension highway, don't you.

    This isn't the playground. Other grown-ups posting here want you to be able to substantiate theories, not just pull them out your ***. None of you have been able to do that. I specifically used Verizon because I know about their business. Maybe you should have understood that prior to jumping in with both barrels blasting. There is absolutely no reason to ASSume that a BBRY user, having spent more to buy a phone, would continue to do so.

    Don't go getting all sensitive on me. You choose to be snide, I'm being snide back. Take note that I used a carrier. Twice. Then you jumped in. Brilliant.

    From where I sit, you seem to be the one getting sensitive. You posted this: How can you enter into a challenge yet be completely blind when it's explained to you? . Gosh, why would I take that as an insult?
    Not going to argue with you mate not worth my time and nothing substantive to prove. Once again, you need to simmer down.

    BTW - I both thanked you and gave you a like on all your posts to make you feel better.

    Posted via CB10
    Last edited by gwanstarr; 07-20-13 at 09:06 PM.
    07-20-13 08:55 PM
  20. Brutal Efficiency's Avatar
    Just adding this... my sister has a WP and I have a BBRY. She bought the Windows Phone because she didn't have enough for a BlackBerry. I bought the BlackBerry because I have enough money.

    I have spent a LOT more than her in my chosen ecosystem. I am worth more than her to an ecosystem.

    If I can't afford an expensive phone and opt to buy a cheaper one, the chances are that I cannot afford to buy into the ecosystem in a big way. On the other hand, if I can afford the latest and greatest, that will continue with my experience in the ecosystem.

    You can't say that more people in your ecosystem means more app purchases. The initial pricing of the phone (which determines the people who buy it) absolutely matters. Look at Android, it faaaaaaar exceeds the number of iOS users, yet, iOS app downloads far exceed Android downloads.

    By this logic, it shows that a Z10 user trumps a 520 or even a 920 user when it comes to value to the ecosystem as a whole.

    m1a1mg, I disagree with your statements.

    BlackBerry & Nintendo Alliance. Bring Pokmon to BlackBerry 10.
    07-21-13 01:04 AM
  21. Gesig Boek's Avatar
    07-21-13 06:26 AM
  22. lawguyman's Avatar
    Guys. Da' Nile is a river in Egypt.

    No one has ever kept track of smartphone market share with this newly minted statistic.

    Let's hope next quarters numbers are better because last quarter's stunk.

    Posted via CB10
    07-21-13 07:40 AM
  23. JeepBB's Avatar
    Guys. Da' Nile is a river in Egypt.

    No one has ever kept track of smartphone market share with this newly minted statistic.

    Let's hope next quarters numbers are better because last quarter's stunk.
    Yeah, it did kind of smack of desperation to me too.

    Reminded me of a few years ago when the UK Government tried to promote an alternative cost-of-living index coz the existing (used forever) index was making their economic policies look bad. After a few months, their new index was making them look even worse than the original index... and the new index was quietly dropped. LOL
    07-21-13 08:35 AM

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