10-03-13 11:58 PM
39 12
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  1. kevinnugent's Avatar
    10-03-13 05:49 PM
  2. codehut's Avatar
    If there's one thing being on CrackBerry all this time has taught me, it's that the very next few posts after mine will be fans dismissing this as rumor, conjecture, just more harmful media, etc...and then the very next day, it'll be confirmed.
    10-03-13 05:54 PM
  3. ealvnv's Avatar
    Aren't those devices already been written off?
    10-03-13 06:03 PM
  4. aha's Avatar
    Are they going to sell those devices in huge discount? Like PlayBook?

    Thinking about Z30...
    10-03-13 06:29 PM
  5. amazinglygraceless's Avatar
    Aren't those devices already been written off?
    No and a small point. First there was nothing written OFF. Inventory was written DOWN. Second, most of the write downs for this quarter were the Z10. When the sales picture for the Q10 and Q5 become available they COULD BE written down also.

    Are they going to sell those devices in huge discount? Like PlayBook?
    You would think so but we are talking about BlackBerry here so all bets are off...
    10-03-13 06:34 PM
  6. howarmat's Avatar
    i dont agree with their sell thru numbers but i do agree there are many devices out there and another write down might happen
    10-03-13 06:36 PM
  7. app_Developer's Avatar
    This seems unlikely to me. In their 6-K, they are showing $54 million in finished goods. So even if they are valued at just ~$100, that's still only ~500k units. There are probably more in channels, but I can't imagine that could be 5-10 million more?

    They also show about $250 million in components.
    10-03-13 06:45 PM
  8. Brewer James's Avatar
    Well for those Blackberry lovers this is good news. You can get a good deal on a Z10 or Q10
    10-03-13 06:51 PM
  9. johnnyuk's Avatar
    I said as much on another thread here the other day, if they over predicted Z10 demand then they definitely over predicted Q10 demand and probably the Q5 too.

    In countries where they simply can't sell the phones they should give them to Enterprise customers and help them move to BES10 so at least they will get a BES10 CAL fee per handset and then focus on building killer apps for the workplace that make BB10 the work phone you can't do without so next time round they all buy in to BB11.

    Posted via CB10
    10-03-13 07:02 PM
  10. Phi Nguyen's Avatar
    I said as much on another thread here the other day, if they over predicted Z10 demand then they definitely over predicted Q10 demand and probably the Q5 too.

    In countries where they simply can't sell the phones they should give them to Enterprise customers and help them move to BES10 so at least they will get a BES10 CAL fee per handset and then focus on building killer apps for the workplace that make BB10 the work phone you can't do without so next time round they all buy in to BB11.

    Posted via CB10
    They should give everyone in waterloo free q10s or z10s lol
    10-03-13 08:00 PM
  11. notfanboy's Avatar
    They can save cash on severance pay for the 4500 workers by paying them in Z10s, one per year of service.
    10-03-13 08:11 PM
  12. Andrew4life's Avatar
    Wow, a quick rough and dirty calculation indeed shows that they potentially have 10 Million BB10s in inventory system wide (including BB10s at carrier stores)

    Vendor Inventory liability $385
    Inventory $941
    Accounts Recievable (Less Service Rev. A.R.) and assuming 50% profit margin $751

    Estimated BB10 related Inventory and Costs $2,077

    Include write down of 934 Million
    Total Estimated BB10 related inventory and costs prior to write down $3,011

    If they had 10 Million BB10 each is a cost of $301.08, which is exactly half of what they are selling them at. And considering a 50% profit margin, this means they have about 10 Million BB10s left unsold in warehouses and at carriers.
    kevinnugent and app_Developer like this.
    10-03-13 08:55 PM
  13. rim_investor's Avatar
    Hopefully they didn't listen to Heins and build the TENS OF MILLIONS of Q10s he quoted would be in demand. Production should equal sales...SIMPLE!

    Posted via my AWESOME Z10 on CB10
    NYC10065 likes this.
    10-03-13 09:19 PM
  14. rim_investor's Avatar
    The article refers to Q1 2013 to Q3 2013...thought they're in fiscal 2014 and how do they have Q3 numbers already?...if a million sold already in Q3 (1 month) that's pretty good! Q1 to Q2 is almost a 300% increase according to the article!

    Posted via my AWESOME Z10 on CB10
    10-03-13 09:36 PM
  15. Tre Lawrence's Avatar
    Someone help this layman out: does this imply that BBRY has to discount merchandise, or does it only allude to the fact that it is prudent to do so?

    In other words, due to the potentially large amount of inventory, are discounts mandatory?
    10-03-13 09:47 PM
  16. dracolnyte's Avatar
    If Q10 drops to $200 then I will be picking one up as a weekday device

    Posted via CB10
    hkkelvinlee likes this.
    10-03-13 09:49 PM
  17. berklon's Avatar
    If Q10 drops to $200 then I will be picking one up as a weekday device
    Why not wait till it drops to $99?

    They wont sell many at $200 and will have to drop the price again anyway.
    10-03-13 09:52 PM
  18. Marauder2's Avatar
    I'll definitely pick up a Q10 if they drop in price!

    Posted via CB10
    10-03-13 10:12 PM
  19. alan510's Avatar
    I have no idea how long it will take to finalise the sale of BlackBerry. But it may be possible that we have seen the last public release of the company's financials. We may never know if there will be any other write-downs if that is the case.

    Posted via CB10
    app_Developer likes this.
    10-03-13 10:14 PM
  20. fin2007's Avatar
    It is just non-sense.

    They wrote off all the Z10 inventories and right now they have ~950M inventories except the writeoff.

    IN Q2, BBRY actually sold 5.9M phones, 4.2 of them were old phones, and 1.7M units were BB10 phones, yet they only counted 3.7M bb7 phones as hardware revenue(770M), so average sell price for BB7 phone was 770/3.7= $208, let's assume bb10 phone average sell price at $300. In total, BBRY sold 770 + 208*0.5M(bb7 phones)+ 300* 1.7M(bb10phones) = ~1200M value of phones.

    The current inventory can be easy sold in one quarter, sure they may have additional in the channels, but still, with 1B+ hardware sales per quarter, I do not see how would another big inventory writeoff coming.
    10-03-13 10:46 PM
  21. CairnsRock's Avatar
    They can save cash on severance pay for the 4500 workers by paying them in Z10s, one per year of service.
    Great, they can pay their mortgages, groceries etc with z10's.
    10-03-13 10:48 PM
  22. kevinnugent's Avatar
    I have no idea how long it will take to finalise the sale of BlackBerry. But it may be possible that we have seen the last public release of the company's financials. We may never know if there will be any other write-downs if that is the case.

    Posted via CB10
    The new buyers would know once into due diligence. If there's a few million devices laying around unsold, then that $9 price is going to look very very shakey. Fairfax might need to halve that.
    10-03-13 11:16 PM
  23. Thunderbuck's Avatar
    The Ubergizmo post is EXTREEEEEEMELY speculative, and I have a couple of arguments:
    1) BB themselves haven't complained about Q10 sales, and they said they had sales in the last quarter that they couldn't book revenue on yet.
    2) We're not seeing widespread discounting on Q10s yet. I just get a feeling we'd be seeing more, bigger deals on the Q10 if it were a total flop.
    3) With the attempt to bring the company private, there's an incentive to get as much bad news out as possible. Why? It drives the stock price lower and Fairfax takes the company private for hundreds of millions less.

    I've been wrong before, God knows, and there may be a grain of truth here, but their math seems a little sloppy.
    10-03-13 11:23 PM
  24. Thunderbuck's Avatar
    The new buyers would know once into due diligence. If there's a few million devices laying around unsold, then that $9 price is going to look very very shakey. Fairfax might need to halve that.
    $4.50/share is not a lot more than their cash balance. As hard as it is to believe, their brand, IP, and real estate do actually have some value.
    10-03-13 11:27 PM
  25. h20work's Avatar
    The Ubergizmo post is EXTREEEEEEMELY speculative, and I have a couple of arguments:
    1) BB themselves haven't complained about Q10 sales, and they said they had sales in the last quarter that they couldn't book revenue on yet.
    2) We're not seeing widespread discounting on Q10s yet. I just get a feeling we'd be seeing more, bigger deals on the Q10 if it were a total flop.
    3) With the attempt to bring the company private, there's an incentive to get as much bad news out as possible. Why? It drives the stock price lower and Fairfax takes the company private for hundreds of millions less.

    I've been wrong before, God knows, and there may be a grain of truth here, but their math seems a little sloppy.
    Bbry never said anything about q10 sales, except for Thorsten expecting to sell "10's of millions".
    numbers,
    As for the the sales numbers, bbry said they changed the way they are reporting now due to the fact that the "shipped" numbers could be returned.
    10-03-13 11:28 PM
39 12

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