08-17-14 01:28 PM
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  1. stealthbob's Avatar
    Interesting read from the HuffPost today. It would seem we are now on the other side of the Bell curve in the Smart phone industry:

    It's probably too soon to call Apple the new BlackBerry, but the fruit salad that is the smartphone industry is undergoing another shakeup.

    Apple and Samsung, the world’s dominant smartphone brands, are starting to lose market share to cheaper emerging-market competitors, Fitch ratings agency warned Tuesday.

    For now, the largest threat to the two companies comes from the developing world, where brands unknown in the West are quickly devouring Apple and Samsung’s business, thanks to lower prices.

    Fitch says Apple risks losing a fifth of its global market share within a year, falling to 25 per cent of smartphone sales from 31 per cent in 2013.

    Samsung could see its market share drop a notch as well, to 14 per cent from 15 per cent, Fitch predicted.

    “We expect the big two's combined smartphone shipment volume to stagnate at around 450 million-460 million units in 2014 [down from 467 million in 2013], even as the global smartphone market rises by around 20 per cent to 1.2 billion,” Fitch said.

    Much of the growth in the smartphone market will come from the developing world because developed markets are saturated at this point, Fitch said. China and India will account for 60 per cent of global growth in smartphone sales.

    "Local handset makers including China's Xiaomi, Lenovo, Huawei and India's Micromax Informatics are the principal large competitors for Apple and Samsung," Fitch wrote. These competitors are selling phones in the $100-to-$300 U.S. range, while Apple and Samsung phones retail for closer to $600, without carrier subsidies.

    In developed countries, profitability is falling for smartphone makers because there is little room for growth and competitors are making cheaper phones and undercutting the big players, Fitch said.

    Apple is expected to release the iPhone 6 in September, but Fitch doesn’t believe it will halt the company’s decline.

    “Developments are likely to be incremental rather than revolutionary,” Fitch wrote. “We believe that the innovations — which include curved screens and compatible wearable devices — are unlikely to change the trend facing Samsung and Apple.”

    Apple shares were up about 0.3 per cent on the NASDAQ Tuesday mid-day, despite the report. Apple shares are up about 30 per cent since the start of the year, while Samsung shares are flat year-to-date.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2014/08...n_5671916.html
    Last edited by stealthbob; 08-12-14 at 03:13 PM. Reason: Added link
    08-12-14 03:08 PM
  2. potatoguy's Avatar
    I was under the assumption that Samsung had more market share world wide than Apple.
    08-12-14 03:19 PM
  3. nomloj's Avatar
    I thought it was Android that had more share than Apple, and that Samsung was gaining on Apple.
    BB fan forever likes this.
    08-12-14 03:27 PM
  4. birdman_38's Avatar
    I also understood Samsung is the world's leading manufacturer, but Apple sells the most smartphones with the iPhone.
    08-12-14 03:32 PM
  5. ccbs's Avatar
    This is a trend that should worry all premium handset makers, especially BBRY where they have a really high cost structure comparatively. The race to bottom is very similar to that experienced by the PC markets. Apple has previous experience surviving and differentiating themselves thru design and a vivid ecosystem. What do others, especially BBRY, have to fight this trend? I think looking forward Chen's decision to focus most resources on the enterprise will definitely be validated. The handset with keyboard is a good differentiation for BBRY without too much competition.
    08-12-14 06:02 PM
  6. stealthbob's Avatar
    This is a trend that should worry all premium handset makers, especially BBRY where they have a really high cost structure comparatively. The race to bottom is very similar to that experienced by the PC markets. Apple has previous experience surviving and differentiating themselves thru design and a vivid ecosystem. What do others, especially BBRY, have to fight this trend? I think looking forward Chen's decision to focus most resources on the enterprise will definitely be validated. The handset with keyboard is a good differentiation for BBRY without too much competition.
    I also like where they are positioned in the security category. This is a growing concern and will surely be a top of mind "spec" for future consumers. Granted the security mostly applies to Enterprise but BB is surely better positioned in the security aspect than the Google dependent segment.

    I wonder what will happen when all these millennials start getting family's and settling down, security may be their top issue to deal with.
    08-12-14 06:17 PM
  7. lnichols's Avatar
    OK but this article isn't good for BlackBerry because BlackBerry cannot compete with Apple or Samsung on cost or ecosystem currently, so they will be in even deeper trouble against these low end players threatening the big guys. Eventually the high end smartphone market will hit saturation, and at that point Apple will be in trouble, at least from a stock perspective. Even though they will still be making money hand over fist, the market will demand that they grow increase profits somehow. When they can't get the growth the market wants, stock will tank.

    Posted with a BlackBerry Z10
    08-12-14 06:52 PM
  8. stealthbob's Avatar
    Yea but BB is not pigeon holed into just being a device seller...with MDM BB has positioned itself nicely into the segment that has the value to be device agnostic, devices will be made on the cheap for low margin...the back end is where the margin is made.

    History has shown its not the hardware that secures your future, owning the software that runs on everything is the ticket. I am not delusional in thinking that BB is the top horse to bet on but you have to admit they are well positioned to be in the race in some form.
    ricocan likes this.
    08-12-14 08:18 PM
  9. Ment's Avatar
    Apple will be fine. In those emerging markets they are selling Iphone 4/4s as entry aspirational devices and of course they'll take the largest chunk of the premium market, in a couple years Iphone will be like Macs 10-20% of the market but huge profits. Samsungs best days are behind it, the top end Android device market is about tapped out and anything below they have huge competition from nimble OEMs willing take a smaller slice.
    Eumaeus and sentimentGX4 like this.
    08-12-14 08:40 PM
  10. Gerii's Avatar
    I thought it was Android that had more share than Apple, and that Samsung was gaining on Apple.
    Yep, they mixed up Apple and Samsung.
    http://communities-dominate.blogs.co...-share-wh.html

    http://communities-dominate.blogs.co...t-data-in.html

    Posted via CB10
    eyesopen1111 likes this.
    08-12-14 08:57 PM
  11. bakron1's Avatar
    Yes, market share is what Apple and Samsung live by, but they have also built a gigantic dedicated user base along the way.

    Once the iPhone 6 is released, it will sell like hot cakes and they will add a few more billion to their already huge cash reserves.

    Plus you have the PC side where Apple has also gained not only in market share but in brand loyalty. They are now a corporate Titan and are going to be around for a long time to come because they have embedded themselves into the culture here in the USA which is the best marketing plan I can think of.


    Sent using the CB forums app.
    Eumaeus likes this.
    08-13-14 03:46 AM
  12. sentimentGX4's Avatar
    Yes, market share is what Apple and Samsung live by, but they have also built a gigantic dedicated user base along the way.
    Apple doesn't play the market share game. It has huge market share "just because..." If Apple really wanted market share, it would launch a legitimate low or mid end device at the 200 USD price point.

    As it is, Apple knows that it will lose market share as the "next billion smartphone users" buy smartphones and choose ultra low end Androids; but, none of this matters to Apple because the profit margin is in high end devices and Apple has played this market extremely well. Refer to how outlandishly priced Macs are vs. PCs. No other OEM even comes close anymore but Apple won't budge on its archaic price structure.

    The company that will really suffer is Samsung. Its smartphone empire is heavily built on the low and mid range and the effect is already being felt on its earnings report (esp. when comparing to Apple's ER performance). In the high end, it is increasingly being challenged by LG as well. Samsung's reign as top Android OEM has peaked and there will soon be opening for new players.
    mornhavon and TGR1 like this.
    08-13-14 04:15 AM
  13. anon1727506's Avatar
    There is a difference in losing marketshare and losing your market....

    Yes Apple and Samsung's growth may slow... but I don't see either one selling fewer devices. Samsung is a little more vulnerable as being only a Hardware OEM. Apple on the other hand continues to make money on every device sold. And there is a reason they made that deal with IBM as it will mostly liky lead to additional revenues for Apple along with selling more devices.

    I know BlackBerry has to pay of the "plug-ins" that allow BES to manage iOS and Android. I wonder how much money (if any) ends up trickling down to Apple?

    OP either way I think this new group of OEM's are going to hurt BlackBerry more than these two giants. Have a feeling the the BES portion of the BlackBerry user base is pretty small and that the Consumer portion of the userbase is the much bigger portion. With a crippled ecosystem and hardware that is always 12 months behind. I'm thinking that in the long term very few "consumers" will stick with BlackBerry.
    08-13-14 10:32 AM
  14. stealthbob's Avatar
    With a crippled ecosystem and hardware that is always 12 months behind. I'm thinking that in the long term very few "consumers" will stick with BlackBerry.
    This is where I disagree, I feel that the hardware is on par at this time. Agreed about the ecosystem though, it may never fully meet the consumer needs like iOS can. That notwithstanding, it can be compensated by the fact that BES and other device agnostic MDM services like the coming Blend will be uniquely positioned to support the brand overall as a niche business.

    Blackberry does not have to beat out iOS and Android to be a profitable company, it just needs to find their segment and be the best at it.
    08-13-14 10:46 AM
  15. BB10Apps's Avatar
    How well is the z3 doing in india?? what are people saying about it compared to Indian manufactured phones? Cause I believe the z3 is priced below $200 in India. Which brings it inline with the range that they talk about in the article. But if the people of India are supporting micromax cause of national pride(ie want to support local business) or even lower prices then blackberry might have some trouble. What do you guys think?
    08-13-14 11:13 AM
  16. Ment's Avatar
    How well is the z3 doing in india?? what are people saying about it compared to Indian manufactured phones? Cause I believe the z3 is priced below $200 in India. Which brings it inline with the range that they talk about in the article. But if the people of India are supporting micromax cause of national pride(ie want to support local business) or even lower prices then blackberry might have some trouble. What do you guys think?
    Z3 isn't doing well anywhere. Its overpriced for the market and availability is poor. In India for example its Rs. 15,990 at Flipkart (India's Amazon) which is $261 at current exchange rates.
    mornhavon likes this.
    08-13-14 11:34 AM
  17. BB10Apps's Avatar
    Z3 isn't doing well anywhere. Its overpriced for the market and availability is poor. In India for example its Rs. 15,990 at Flipkart (India's Amazon) which is $261 at current exchange rates.

    Ya thats not good. I thought it was priced lower than that. I guess that was only for the launch where people got deals for it. z3 should be $200 max if they even want to try to succeed in india. I thought it was doing ok in indonesia?
    08-13-14 11:53 AM
  18. Ment's Avatar
    Ya thats not good. I thought it was priced lower than that. I guess that was only for the launch where people got deals for it. z3 should be $200 max if they even want to try to succeed in india. I thought it was doing ok in indonesia?
    Indonesia is doing okay but it was suppose to be the country where Z3 would explode given its one of if not the strongest market for BB. Being out of stock for weeks after the initial launch batch didn't help things.
    08-13-14 11:57 AM
  19. TGR1's Avatar
    Apple doesn't play the market share game. It has huge market share "just because..." If Apple really wanted market share, it would launch a legitimate low or mid end device at the 200 USD price point.

    As it is, Apple knows that it will lose market share as the "next billion smartphone users" buy smartphones and choose ultra low end Androids; but, none of this matters to Apple because the profit margin is in high end devices and Apple has played this market extremely well. Refer to how outlandishly priced Macs are vs. PCs. No other OEM even comes close anymore but Apple won't budge on its archaic price structure.
    I read Apple has something like 90% of sales of computers over $1000. And that is the fraction that is actually making profit.
    08-13-14 11:58 AM
  20. THBW's Avatar
    Apple will be fine. In those emerging markets they are selling Iphone 4/4s as entry aspirational devices and of course they'll take the largest chunk of the premium market, in a couple years Iphone will be like Macs 10-20% of the market but huge profits. Samsungs best days are behind it, the top end Android device market is about tapped out and anything below they have huge competition from nimble OEMs willing take a smaller slice.
    Sorry but Apple is sucking wind in Asia. The IPhone 4/4s are simply not competitive as you can buy a way better Android in the mid 300 range. Ego, the rationale for the Z3. Apple is done in Asia until they bring out a real value phone.

    Posted via CB10
    08-13-14 02:04 PM
  21. Ment's Avatar
    Sorry but Apple is sucking wind in Asia. The IPhone 4/4s are simply not competitive as you can buy a way better Android in the mid 300 range. Ego, the rationale for the Z3. Apple is done in Asia until they bring out a real value phone.

    Posted via CB10
    Sure you can buy better spec devices for the price but Iphones have cache. Until that no longer is the case Apple can and does sell more and more Iphones in emerging markets. In India they doubled the sales from last year.
    08-13-14 03:20 PM
  22. ccbs's Avatar
    Sorry but Apple is sucking wind in Asia. The IPhone 4/4s are simply not competitive as you can buy a way better Android in the mid 300 range. Ego, the rationale for the Z3. Apple is done in Asia until they bring out a real value phone.

    Posted via CB10
    That is simply not true. While Apple's growth has slowed down a bit in most of Asia, they are still leading and growing in Japan and China. Their last conference call confirmed that most of the last quarter revenue growth were coming from China market. They are still unquestionably the most sought after status symbol phone in China's growing middle class market. Admittedly Xiaomi has been doing very well and is started to catch up with Apple's total shipment in the China market, but Samsung is the company that feels most of the heat. A friend of mine who works as a software architect in Samsung mobile China recently told me that the Koreans is finally serious about the China market and started to give them full control on the software/hardware design for high end phones facing China market. Apple while competing in the same mobile phone market enjoys a higher social status symbol treatment than other competing handsets maker. In short, Apple is far from done in Asia and its shipment and revenue are growing faster in Asia than in America.
    08-13-14 03:24 PM
  23. bakron1's Avatar
    Market share will not be an issue when Apple releases the iPhone 6. They will sell tens of millions of them to their loyal user base and as a consumer products manufacture, that's the payoff for great marketing and brand loyalty.

    I remember back in the early days when Blackberry used to be in the same position, then came competition, lack of vision and poor management and here we are today.


    Sent using the CB forums app.
    08-13-14 03:56 PM
  24. vtpmt81's Avatar
    Cheap Androids like the Xiaomi Mi3 and Redmi Note and the Moto G/E are stealing away marketshare from the big boys. The Moto G is like a poor man's Nexus 4 and you can get one for $200. Samsung's $200 phones are garbage.
    mornhavon likes this.
    08-13-14 05:04 PM
  25. TGR1's Avatar
    That is simply not true. While Apple's growth has slowed down a bit in most of Asia, they are still leading and growing in Japan and China. Their last conference call confirmed that most of the last quarter revenue growth were coming from China market. They are still unquestionably the most sought after status symbol phone in China's growing middle class market. Admittedly Xiaomi has been doing very well and is started to catch up with Apple's total shipment in the China market, but Samsung is the company that feels most of the heat. A friend of mine who works as a software architect in Samsung mobile China recently told me that the Koreans is finally serious about the China market and started to give them full control on the software/hardware design for high end phones facing China market. Apple while competing in the same mobile phone market enjoys a higher social status symbol treatment than other competing handsets maker. In short, Apple is far from done in Asia and its shipment and revenue are growing faster in Asia than in America.
    As the more affluent middle class rises in developing countries they turn to luxury goods and valued brands. Vietnam has also been remarked on despite the fact an iPhone is a *significant* chuck of change. Of course, that is also why KIRFs do very well too.
    08-13-14 05:21 PM
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