10-01-13 05:55 PM
31 12
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  1. rim_investor's Avatar
    If you take a look at the official Q2 report (link below) the Balance Sheet shows shareholder equity at $8.4 Billion. I'm not an accountant but unless their numbers are total fantasy (SEC would be calling), you would think any offer would be closer to $8.4 Billion than $4.7 Billion. You'll also notice deferred revenue increased by 54% from March quarter from $542 Million to $832 Million in August. This counts as a liability on the Balance Sheet...what's up with that?
    http://press.blackberry.com/financia...4-results.html

    Posted via my AWESOME Z10 on CB10
    Randeman likes this.
    09-30-13 07:59 AM
  2. kanna87's Avatar
    Maybe there will be a counter offer soon

    Posted via CB10
    09-30-13 08:04 AM
  3. njblackberry's Avatar
    Higher or lower?
    09-30-13 08:07 AM
  4. kevxn's Avatar
    Remember it is after the inventory writing down. Without that, please add another billion there.

    Posted via CB10
    09-30-13 08:14 AM
  5. world traveler and former ceo's Avatar
    I agree! ... BBRY way undervalued ...
    09-30-13 08:37 AM
  6. njblackberry's Avatar
    Why is it undervalued? If it was, other buyers would be chomping at the bit.
    Consider - as difficult as this may be - that the numbers are even worse. Inventories of Q10s and Q5s in the warehouses. Returned shipments.

    What happens then? A take-under. Their one known asset is the $2.6bn in cash. Patent values are unknown. xBBM "value" is unknown.

    A former member of the BoD offered $9. That's not a floor. Stock now is $8.06. If it is undervalued, BUY BUY BUY.

    Is something fishy? I definitely think so. And that's for Canadian and US regulators to determine.
    kbz1960, Shlooky, schmeat and 1 others like this.
    09-30-13 08:45 AM
  7. mas_quemex's Avatar
    I believe BlackBerry as of today, 30th September 2013, is worth $16 billion or ten quarterly revenues.

    Even if BlackBerry is not selling any devices, its business model is worth $8 billion or ten quarterly service/software revenues.
    09-30-13 09:02 AM
  8. TGR1's Avatar
    A company is worth what the buyer is willing to pay and the seller is willing/forced to take. That's the harsh reality.
    gg22, mmarco, Snap51 and 8 others like this.
    09-30-13 09:11 AM
  9. njblackberry's Avatar
    I believe BlackBerry as of today, 30th September 2013, is worth $16 billion or ten quarterly revenues.

    Even if BlackBerry is not selling any devices, its business model is worth $8 billion or ten quarterly service/software revenues.
    How was this calculated? What business model?
    09-30-13 09:38 AM
  10. BoldPreza's Avatar
    How was this calculated? What business model?
    The mad hatter is his accountant. :s

    Posted via CB10
    09-30-13 11:03 AM
  11. jfmtl87's Avatar
    The shareholder equity on balance sheet has nothing to do with bb's stock value, its more or less a cumulation of past profits and losses plus financing obtain via shares original emission. Those amounts are not related to trading stock values.

    As it has been said, while there are many methods to estimate the value of a business(i dont think the xx times of income would be a good one given the declining and unstable results of blackberry), in the end, the real fair value is how much someone is ready to pay - sell for in real life. If people estimates it is worth more, they should plan an investing group and spend their money to buy it for more then
    app_Developer likes this.
    09-30-13 01:09 PM
  12. heymaggie's Avatar
    Isn't shareholders equity simply assets minus liabilities? Remember that, unlike cash, most assets on the books can exist one day and vanish or get written down the next. About a billion dollars of it happened a little over a week ago. Poof.

    Those patents that were purchased are on the books as the purchase price minus some amount of accounting depreciation. It doesn't represent what their market value is. I think there might be a company or two on the books like that, also.
    FairlightRacing likes this.
    09-30-13 01:14 PM
  13. abwan11's Avatar
    So Prem is getting BlackBerry for free, basically. 2.6 in cash plus 1 billion in inventory and 800 in deferred revenue, which he'll realize later. That's 4.4 billion add the loose change in his pocket and he's done.

    Posted via CB10
    09-30-13 03:30 PM
  14. anon1727506's Avatar
    I wouldn't be surprised if the offer isn't rejected.

    I wouldn't be surprised if shareholders end up getting much less later on.

    OP I agree that BBRY is probably worth $8 - $10 Billion... but BlackBerry is like finding an old unknown painting by Vincent Van Gogh of a dog doing his "business" on a plate on a table. Yes the painting has great value as a Van Gogh... but you are going to find that that beauty is in the eye of the beholder, and that people don't pay a premium for c r a p.
    09-30-13 03:45 PM
  15. the_sleuth's Avatar
    Too many people are focusing on the book value. In BBRY's case, it's miss leading. According to the current balance sheet, it has $3.505 B in intangible assets (or goodwill).

    Goodwill is the premium one pays for assets above book value of all acquired assets. Remember all of those purchases: QNX, Gist, TAT, Torch Mobile, Paratek, Jaycut, tinyHippos, DocsToGo, and so forth. Then goodwill is amortized overtime. But the productive efforts of these acquisitions have produced sub-par revenue. In fact declining revenue, thus BBRY trades as a distressed asset.

    An acquirer of BBRY will only look at the tangible book value of $9.54 / share (based upon 515.42 million shares outstanding; Yahoo Finance).

    A strategic buyer would pay a premium above $9.54 due to synergies of greater return on assets than Fairfax consortium.

    Watsa et al are simply corporate raiding at long-term shareholders expense.
    Last edited by the_sleuth; 09-30-13 at 04:22 PM. Reason: fixing typo
    09-30-13 04:13 PM
  16. BBThemes's Avatar
    How was this calculated? What business model?
    take all the figures from the profit section, shred the loss section in the bin and hey presto!

    that's it right?
    09-30-13 04:55 PM
  17. BBPandy's Avatar
    I agree! ... BBRY way undervalued ...
    And yet analysts today were calling for the deal to go through @ $7 a share instead
    10-01-13 02:53 AM
  18. farside33's Avatar
    BlackBerry's current Market Cap is only 4.17 billion. The market cap can be thought of as a proxy for the public opinion of a company's net worth and is a determining factor in some forms of stock valuation.

    A large amount of that 2.6 billion in cash would still be needed as working capitol to turn things around (if that is really the plan). There is also still a lot of liabilities sitting in warehouses and on retailers shelves (total value unknown to the public). So the 4.9 billion offer is not that far fetched or too low.
    10-01-13 08:46 AM
  19. EchoTango's Avatar
    I keep saying, $9 per share offer for Blackberry is criminal !

    The $4.7 Billion was calculated on Prem Watsa's custom built calculator and the BOD seems to be completely buying the Fairfax story. Of course, like TH, side deals are being made to gain acceptance and I suspect the deal will go through. The few will be well compensated at the expense of the common shareholder, which is the ususal case in transactions like these. However, the magnitude the common shareholders are being made to "eat" is truly historic !

    You can be assured that once the deal closes, the valuation for Blackberry on Fairfax's books will be $8.4 Billion, making Prem Watsa look like a financial genius !
    Engire likes this.
    10-01-13 09:23 AM
  20. amazinglygraceless's Avatar
    I'm going to take a guess at this as I don't know the mind of Mr Watsa but it seems to me the offer from Fairfax is appropriate in that it appears that what they have done is attempt to get a truer value of BlackBerry by backing out Intangible Assets and Goodwill to get a more realistic picture of how to structure their offer. Do that and you are closer to $4.7 billion than you are to 8.

    Goodwill and IA are probably two of the most nebulous lines on the Balance Sheet and two of the more (prone to) over-inflated. If I were making this deal I'd try to value the company based solely on it's real and tangible assets.
    10-01-13 09:48 AM
  21. EchoTango's Avatar
    Again, those of you who comment that are not shareholders, remind yourselves that you have NO skin in the game and that your perspectives would be very different if you did........
    amazinglygraceless likes this.
    10-01-13 09:57 AM
  22. zzbsb's Avatar
    Ok OP, let me ask you as question: Now let's say the offer was rejected, now what?
    10-01-13 10:02 AM
  23. amazinglygraceless's Avatar
    Again, those of you who comment that are not shareholders, remind yourselves that you have NO skin in the game and that your perspectives would be very different if you did........
    Fair enough but by the same token some of those (not you particularly) who still have skin in the game (I got out at a while back) are looking at this from a somewhat emotional perspective. There is nothing wrong with that but both perspectives, the emotional and the analytic, are equally valid.
    m1a1mg likes this.
    10-01-13 10:53 AM
  24. heymaggie's Avatar
    Again, those of you who comment that are not shareholders, remind yourselves that you have NO skin in the game and that your perspectives would be very different if you did........
    I own some shares (at $8), however, I don't see why ownership of this stock should affect its valuation other than if someone owns the stock then they are more likely to be overestimating its value. If I really wanted a fair valuation of the stock, I'd be looking for someone who didn't own any shares.
    paper_monkey likes this.
    10-01-13 10:59 AM
  25. paper_monkey's Avatar
    Again, those of you who comment that are not shareholders, remind yourselves that you have NO skin in the game and that your perspectives would be very different if you did........
    If you do have a 'skin' in the game and you are emotionally invested in it then perhaps you shouldn't have said 'skin' in the game.. I'm not suggesting that you would be happy about a substantial loss but that is the inherant risk of the stock market... you win big, you lose big and you hope to come out ahead at the end when you pull your money out.
    10-01-13 11:18 AM
31 12

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