1. anon3396357's Avatar
    OK, I am officially the only person in the world who is not into Angry Birds. There is something terribly wrong with me.
    Hey qbnkelt, don't worry. You're not the only one. I played it once on my Galaxy Tab, and it was just overhyped. It was fun for an hour, but after that I never picked it up again.
    04-29-11 07:53 AM
  2. The_Engine's Avatar
    When is the Quarter for RIMM? I ask because I know it is not calendar quarters, right?

    What i am wondering is if this speaks to delays in delivering new devices. BGR already reported that only 1 device will be announced, and now RIM just changed their out look to say they will ship and sell less devices. So I am assuming they just ran into some issues and won't have new devices in place by the end of the Quarter and therefore less sales.

    If the BB7 devices don't go out until Late summer/Fall then I have to assume QNX is looking like late 2012, and not early 2012. All of that does not look good for RIM. By then QNX will be competing with Android 4, iOS6 and an iPhone on LTE on multiple carriers in NA.

    Sounds more and more like RIM's leadership is not good. Guess we see next week at BWC...
    04-29-11 08:50 AM
  3. garpt's Avatar
    Ah RIM, RIM... I'm a patient investor but this is disappointing.
    If you think YESTERDAY was disappointing, look at your investment price today!!
    See my rant in "blackberry News" forum......
    04-29-11 08:56 AM
  4. tumer's Avatar
    I bereave this quarter will end in may the last quarter ended in February and that was rims 4q I think
    04-29-11 09:01 AM
  5. rollingrock1988's Avatar
    If RIM doesn't pick up with in the next year, I may have to jump ship... Not because I want to, but because I don't want to be on another failing platform. I had a palm centro and loved it, but, I had to give it up because palm was lost.
    04-29-11 09:18 AM
  6. infamyx's Avatar
    I wish i could say i was surprised, but i'm not in the slightest. RIM continually hurts themselves by completely ignoring the market and the times.

    RIM should have had these devices ready to roll back in February, which is truthfully prime time for RIM as there are no major releases from phone makers as they all tend to announce products and they dont show up until summer time. WHY IS THERE NOTHING HERE?!!

    RIM has to battle not only Apple, who is currently stomping RIM with a one-two punch in the 4/3GS, but Android who's just walking around with a broom sweeping everyone else up. I wish these upcoming devices would change it around, but they wont. Sure sales will improve as people will upgrade to devices that are actually improved, but they will still fall massively short of the competition.

    RIM has to put their devices toe-to-toe with the iPhone 4, Thunderbolt 4G, and the current crop of elite phones, and then prepare themselves for the NEXT WAVE of elite phones like the G2x 4G, Evo 3D 4G, Galaxy S II 4G(my next phone!), Sensation 4G, Bionic 4G...and an improved iPhone 5 (4G support maybe?). Lacking is a severe understatement when going against these devices, and i expect RIM to continue to get tossed aside yet again for another year.
    04-29-11 10:07 AM
  7. missing_K-W's Avatar
    When is the Quarter for RIMM? I ask because I know it is not calendar quarters, right?

    What i am wondering is if this speaks to delays in delivering new devices. BGR already reported that only 1 device will be announced, and now RIM just changed their out look to say they will ship and sell less devices. So I am assuming they just ran into some issues and won't have new devices in place by the end of the Quarter and therefore less sales.

    If the BB7 devices don't go out until Late summer/Fall then I have to assume QNX is looking like late 2012, and not early 2012. All of that does not look good for RIM. By then QNX will be competing with Android 4, iOS6 and an iPhone on LTE on multiple carriers in NA.

    Sounds more and more like RIM's leadership is not good. Guess we see next week at BWC...
    I would take BGR reporting RIM only announcing 1 phone at BBW with a grain of salt!

    There will be many announcements..

    Back at Devcon when RIM unveiled the PB, BGR reported that morning "exclusively" that there would be no PB announcement...turned out BGR was very wrong indeed!
    04-29-11 10:13 AM
  8. sleepngbear's Avatar
    All I got to say is - RIM is still in a lot better shape than Nokia. Still no idea when the first WP7 phones are coming from them; at least we know new BB's are just a few months away, and the next-gen QNX phones are about a year out. There are also several acquisitions that RIM has barely started to tap yet. Yes, the situation looks a little bleak ... but they're far from dead and buried.

    Posted from my CrackBerry at wapforums.crackberry.com
    04-29-11 01:02 PM
  9. The_Engine's Avatar
    It does sound like there will be multiple devices announced next week based on Basille's comments in the recent investor call. So that is positive. It just concerns me that these devices are being delayed at this stage.

    Posted from my CrackBerry at wapforums.crackberry.com
    04-29-11 01:21 PM
  10. 1magine's Avatar
    Hardly dead and buried.

    But having gone from #1 in the industry to no longer in the top 5 of manufacturer's in such a short period of time is hardly all sunshine and unicorns.

    Imagine for a second if Perseus and I-line suddenly started making GPUs, AMD/ATI ignored them and NVidia and continued to produce new models but without updating their specifications for 2-3 years, and went from #1/#2 down to an also ran. AMD retained their contract for some Compaq, E-machine models and low end laptops, but their future would be questionable. Same is true today with RIM. Apple is not their only competition. The influx of Android and WP7 devices at all ends of the market is staggering. Other than Nokia, all other manufacturer's are raking it in. And big time. To come back in any market, history tells us that it is never enough to be as good as the other guy. Because of the loss of good will and public perception, you need to exceed expectations and everyone else's products. In 2011 RIM will release some awfully good devices. But they will not be exceeding everyone else. They will not be dual core, 4G, have a front camera or the ability to handle flash content. Their specifications will be right in-line with many of the current mid-range models being released. What will set them apart? Will they sell them at discount prices? Unlikely. Many of their older devices still sell for $4-500 off contract. They will sell like hotcakes among enterprise users. They will sell moderately well among consumers. What they will not do is stop RIM from slipping in market share.

    In the short term, unless RIM announces the immediate availability of several of these devices at BBW, and does so at some discount, I think the stock is headed to $40. In the long term, I think stock hits $30, long before it hits $75.
    Last edited by 1magine; 04-29-11 at 01:28 PM.
    04-29-11 01:26 PM
  11. sleepngbear's Avatar
    In the short term, unless RIM announces the immediate availability of several of these devices at BBW, and does so at some discount, I think the stock is headed to $40. In the long term, I think stock hits $30, long before it hits $75.
    I've been reading that the new target price is $35 from several analysts. That could be a real bargain.

    Posted from my CrackBerry at wapforums.crackberry.com
    04-29-11 01:40 PM
  12. 1magine's Avatar
    I invite positive news or articles w/r/t to RIM - not the devices or the Playbook; but the company and its performance. If someone has them - please post them in response.
    04-29-11 01:42 PM
  13. 1magine's Avatar
    I've been reading that the new target price is $35 from several analysts. That could be a real bargain.

    Posted from my CrackBerry at wapforums.crackberry.com
    Yeah - I might roll at $30-$35. RIM has sufficient infrastructure to make it back by 2012/2013, if they push. My concern, is that the 2011 devices are the first proofs of life I've seen. And unfortunately the fact that they will be known to not support QNX when it releases 6-9 months later is ominous. If the reporting and coverage of this is widespread, it could keep sales and application development down, which makes that mountain that much higher to climb.
    04-29-11 01:48 PM
  14. E92Vancouver's Avatar
    Huh?

    Verizon has the iPhone 4, and it has been available since February 10, 2011.
    Dude. That's not even 3 months. Verizon kept a lot of users away from the iphone. Lot's of Verizon subscribers are currently on contracts they can't get out of. They are using Android phones and can't wait to get an iphone.
    04-29-11 02:03 PM
  15. ADGrant's Avatar
    One problem RIM has with investors is that BB OS is the last pre-iPhone platform standing and it is generally assumed that it won't be standing much longer. RIM has said as much.

    Its unclear exactly how well its replacement will do but shipping the PB without standalone email was a PR disaster IMHO.
    04-29-11 02:23 PM
  16. 1magine's Avatar
    The lack of Native E-mail at launch was not good for PR, and hurt forecasts as much as RIM's own guidance cuts. In my opinion, it may have even played a part in RIM feeling they needed to cut their own guidance.
    04-29-11 02:27 PM
  17. the_thunderbird's Avatar
    I find the cell phone "fan market" (for lack of a better word) an interesting thing to follow. Ignoring the complete needless hostility people show between platforms - which they did not develop, create, or otherwise actually support, and the fact everyone has become an expert business person with the invention of the digital message board there is really a lack of information for us to make informed judgements on the future. What we do know is current sales, emerging markets, and what we can actually buy now. Additionally we know how well these products work.

    Despite this lots of people think RIM is headed towards take over or bankruptcy (the first unlikely, the second not even possible unless sales stopped totally, now, and for the following several months while expenses remained stable). I, like the other arm chair obsevers do not know business well, but let's take a moment to be rational in our thoughts about a company with billions of dollars in cash....

    As a RIM watcher, and supporter, I think this is an interesting time to be observing. We haven't seen a new phone for awhile. QNX has a lot of promise, but is also not close enough to hold anyone other than the most devote fan's attention. So, hopefully we will see next week, the introduction of the awkward stop gap phones to try and hold the market over. This could be a time for RIM to be able to hold on enough to stay as a genuine competitor, or could be a critical step away from holding onto the consumer market. All these doom and gloom stories we read about RIM loosing market share in NA certainly are not uplifting, but also seem to ignore the huge room for all smartphone makers to continue to grow. Is anyone really surprised the 9780 was not enough to push BB through the last quarter? I mean as a fan I am not even sure what the point of that release was. Bold Touch, Touch, new Curve, Torch 2 - there are things that could matter.

    Current BB owners, I mean the normal ones, not us, just see an antiquated platform that needs a leg up to stay current. Most of my BB-owning peers own Curves. That's a phone that needs some modernization love. Of my Curve owning friends, most of us also have Bold's issued to us from work so at least they know what the potential is on something a little newer.

    Personally I was a bit surprised at the negative reviews that came on the PlayBook, but there are some valid points. A lot of the bugs are not acceptable on a device that costs so much, but like many have said in the 7 pages preceeding my response there is a lot of potential built up in this thing and I am excited to see where it goes. The updates can not stop. Hopefully with the release of the network connected PB's we'll see a bigger advertising push as things fall into place a bit better.

    At the end of the day RIM also owns two markets that are not nearly as friendly to Apple or Android based phones:
    - governments/large companies; and
    - the emerging markets seem to love BB!
    As long as this continues there will be some stability. I realize people love to post links showing one or two companies examining leaving BB or switching to someone else, but really smart phones continue to be RIM dominated. I work with (but not in) security in gov't and there is no chance of BB loosing its status as the only option anytime in the immediate future.

    Hopefully when the next story of RIM is published this will be like Chapter 8 or 9, when things didn't look that great but stability laid ahead again. It is kind of like reading about the Canadian military
    Last edited by the_thunderbird; 04-29-11 at 02:39 PM.
    misdeismo likes this.
    04-29-11 02:35 PM
  18. papped's Avatar
    I find the cell phone "fan market" (for lack of a better word) an interesting thing to follow. Ignoring the complete needless hostility people show between platforms - which they did not develop, create, or otherwise actually support...
    Technically anyone doing development (even themes) is investing their own time adding support the app ecosystem, so there are a lot of people with some actual investment in the platform.
    04-29-11 04:11 PM
  19. duckduke's Avatar
    I find the cell phone "fan market" (for lack of a better word) an interesting thing to follow............. the fact everyone has become an expert business person with the invention of the digital message board there is really a lack of information for us to make informed judgements on the future. What we do know is current sales, emerging markets, and what we can actually buy now. Additionally we know how well these products work.

    Despite this lots of people think RIM is headed towards take over or bankruptcy (the first unlikely, the second not even possible unless sales stopped totally, now, and for the following several months while expenses remained stable). I, like the other arm chair obsevers do not know business well, but let's take a moment to be rational in our thoughts about a company with billions of dollars in cash....
    I am no expert but I enjoyed your post....thanks!

    All this over whether RIMM smartphone sales will grow at 2X% this quarter or whether they are going to grow at a 4X% rate.

    I find Wall Street and it's reactions somewhat amusing (down 14.05% today closing at $48.65). Most companies (in other sectors and industries) would love to grow at a 20% growth rate.

    ACTUAL DATA FROM GARTNER:
    RIMM 2010 - 47,451,600 smartphones sold (increase=38%)
    RIMM 2009 - 34,346,600 smartphones sold (increase=48%)
    RIMM 2008 - 23,149,000 smartphones sold (increase=97%)
    RIMM 2007 - 11,767,700 smartphhoes sold

    RIMM is already in a stable profitable business model and sold over 47,000,000 phones last year. At a 2X% growth rate they will sell in the neighborhood of 57,000,000 (bummer.......sounds like bankruptcy ). On the upper end they could sell about 66,000,000 smartphones or more.

    In addition.........most estimates for PB sales are in the 3,000,000 - 5,000,000 range.

    With RIMM profitablility EPS= about $6.34 .....estimated even higher for this year (by analysts and RIMM) and these sales........the market reaction today appears to be a typical kneejerk reaction.

    I'm looking forward to see what unfolds next week and the rest of this year.

    RIMM looks like a great bargin given their history and this data.
    Last edited by duckduke; 04-29-11 at 04:22 PM.
    the_thunderbird likes this.
    04-29-11 04:13 PM
  20. the_thunderbird's Avatar
    Technically anyone doing development (even themes) is investing their own time adding support the app ecosystem, so there are a lot of people with some actual investment in the platform.
    Papped,

    True. I suppose what I was getting at was more the generality of hostility that seems to have developed on digital message boards, and even in "the real world" between the platforms themselves. And even if one had developed an app, I still am uncertain how that would lead some individuals to lash out so wildly against products they do not use, nor are required to use. Crackberry has its share of militant pro-Blackberry users, but Engadet's comments section after RIM stories must take the cake for mis-placed hostility.

    Just hard for me to understand...
    04-29-11 06:20 PM
  21. papped's Avatar
    People think they know stuff because they read blogs and can spew it back out somewhere else. But 90% of the time they don't understand anything behind what they're saying. So the only option is to get hostile to prove your point... Or be dismissive.
    04-29-11 07:34 PM
  22. ImGeorgeous's Avatar
    I am no expert but I enjoyed your post....thanks!

    All this over whether RIMM smartphone sales will grow at 2X% this quarter or whether they are going to grow at a 4X% rate.

    I find Wall Street and it's reactions somewhat amusing (down 14.05% today closing at $48.65). Most companies (in other sectors and industries) would love to grow at a 20% growth rate.

    ACTUAL DATA FROM GARTNER:
    RIMM 2010 - 47,451,600 smartphones sold (increase=38%)
    RIMM 2009 - 34,346,600 smartphones sold (increase=48%)
    RIMM 2008 - 23,149,000 smartphones sold (increase=97%)
    RIMM 2007 - 11,767,700 smartphhoes sold

    RIMM is already in a stable profitable business model and sold over 47,000,000 phones last year. At a 2X% growth rate they will sell in the neighborhood of 57,000,000 (bummer.......sounds like bankruptcy ). On the upper end they could sell about 66,000,000 smartphones or more.

    In addition.........most estimates for PB sales are in the 3,000,000 - 5,000,000 range.

    With RIMM profitablility EPS= about $6.34 .....estimated even higher for this year (by analysts and RIMM) and these sales........the market reaction today appears to be a typical kneejerk reaction.

    I'm looking forward to see what unfolds next week and the rest of this year.

    RIMM looks like a great bargin given their history and this data.
    I think the problem with RIMM (and really all other tech companies) is that they are in a hyper competitive industry and there's no real way around it. There's a reason why Buffett hates to long tech firms, too much continuous reinvestment and R&D. You can be the absolute leader in your industry, as RIMM was in 2007 and Blockbuster was. But all it takes is a Netflix to come into your neighborhood and make you go out of business just like that. And looking back, one of the biggest reasons why Blockbuster went bankrupt is because they didn't adapt to Netflix's model in a timely manner. Doesn't that sound familiar..?

    So when we take that growth data and compare it to the ridiculous growth in the smartphone industry in the past couple of years, RIMM's relative outlook is bleaker. So that kind of leads to the negative sentiment around RIMM that they will be dead soon because they are behind a generation. In tech, being behind is like shooting yourself in the foot.

    RIMM's technicals look good, but is it sustainable for much longer? They've been riding their older platform for a while now. Will they be able to match up with Apple and Google? History shows that the beginning of an industry really allows more players, but as the industry matures there is often only room for one or two big players with the other smaller ones dropping out. Will that be RIMM?

    Right now, I think there are more questions than answers, so that's why there has been a big correction in the stock price in the past couple of days. Lots of people don't think it's worth the risk, and I can see their point. Overreaction? Maybe (it's Wall St., what do you expect? ). But it is warranted.
    04-29-11 08:58 PM
  23. ADGrant's Avatar

    All this over whether RIMM smartphone sales will grow at 2X% this quarter or whether they are going to grow at a 4X% rate.

    I find Wall Street and it's reactions somewhat amusing (down 14.05% today closing at $48.65). Most companies (in other sectors and industries) would love to grow at a 20% growth rate.

    ACTUAL DATA FROM GARTNER:
    RIMM 2010 - 47,451,600 smartphones sold (increase=38%)
    RIMM 2009 - 34,346,600 smartphones sold (increase=48%)
    RIMM 2008 - 23,149,000 smartphones sold (increase=97%)
    RIMM 2007 - 11,767,700 smart phones sold.

    RIMM is already in a stable profitable business model and sold over 47,000,000 phones last year. At a 2X% growth rate they will sell in the neighborhood of 57,000,000 (bummer.......sounds like bankruptcy ). On the upper end they could sell about 66,000,000 smartphones or more.

    ...

    RIMM looks like a great bargin given their history and this data.
    The problem with the growth in sales is it is declining in a market where overall smartphone sales are increasing. That suggests RIM's market share is declining.
    04-29-11 10:59 PM
  24. misdeismo's Avatar
    while this is certainly bad news in the near term, i actually think this presents an excellent opportunity for investors. the current OS is antiquated and can no longer carry the company but if you look at the moves that the company made to bring the playbook to fruition it is obvious that they understand what it takes to compete in the future. a bad spell for a company that has done so well for so long is not reason to start talking doom and gloom.

    what needs to be done immediately however is a re-evaluation of their marketing strategy. its terrible quite honestly. RIM has the same advantage that apple has going for it, they control their own brand. they need to leverage that just like apple and create a marketing tour de force. for example they have THE BEST messaging platform in bbm and they are not utilizing it to its fullest. bbm can be a social juggernaut the same way that facebook and twitter are. market the ish out of it.

    the other thing is apps. the qnx based os is like a clean slate, they need to court developers hard.
    04-30-11 12:04 AM
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