03-28-11 11:20 PM
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  1. jd914's Avatar
    From BGR:
    Ovum: Android to dominate smartphone growth, Windows Phone will beat BlackBerry | BGR

    In a press release on Friday, research firm Ovum stated that the smartphone market will double by 2016, led by devices running Googles Android operating system. Ovum predicts that Android will drive smartphone growth moving forward, and that it will amass 38% of the global market by 2016. At that time, Apple will own 17.5% of the smartphone market and BlackBerry maker RIM will hold a 16.5% market share. Despite Nokias current seat at the top of the cell phone market, Ovum sees the Finnish giant only helping Microsofts Windows Phone platform to eek a 17.2% share of the smartphone market. While this would place Windows Phone in the No. 3 spot ahead of RIMs BlackBerry OS, it also suggests that Nokias share will decline rapidly over the next five years. Ovum predicts that annual smartphone shipments will reach 653 million units by 2016. Hit the jump for the full press release.

    Android to drive doubling of smartphone market by 2016

    Android to drive doubling of smartphone market by 2016

    Global shipments to hit 653 million by 2016
    Android will take 38% market share compared to Apples 17.5%
    NokiaMicrosoft deal re-draws the smartphone landscape

    The global smartphone market will double in size by 2016 to hit shipments of 653 million, predicts Ovum in a new forecast*. Android will drive the growth and will emerge as the dominant platform, dramatically outperforming Apple with a massive 20.5 per cent lead on market share, finds the independent telecoms analyst.

    Ovum predicts that smartphones will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 14.5 per cent between 2010 and 2016 and will account for approximately 40 per cent of the mobile phone market. Asia-Pacific will be the largest region, shipping just over 200 million units by 2016. Western Europe and North America will remain strong markets with 175 million and 165 million shipments respectively.

    Ovum principal analyst Adam Leach said: The smartphone market will see significant growth over the next five years, once again outperforming the wider mobile phone market. We will see dramatic shifts in dominance for smartphone software platforms, with Android storming into the lead with 38 per cent market share, compared to Apple iOS 17.5 per cent, by 2016.

    The success of the Android platform is being driven by the sheer number of hardware vendors supporting it at both the high and low ends of the market.

    According to Ovums forecast, just behind Apple iOS will be Windows Phone, with 17.2 per cent market share by 2016, followed by BlackBerry OS, with 16.5 per cent.

    Leach continued: We expect at least one other platform to achieve mainstream success within the forecast period. This could be an existing player in the market such as Bada, WebOS, or MeeGo, or it could be a new entrant to the market place.

    According to Leach, the partnership between Nokia and Microsoft has redrawn the smartphone market and will result in a significant reduction in shipments of Symbian-based handsets as Nokia transitions to Windows Phone as its primary smartphone platform. However, Nokia still expects to ship 150 million Symbian-based handsets so there will be shipments beyond 2012 and in some regions into 2016.

    Leach continued: For Microsoft the deal provides a committed handset partner that has the potential to make Windows Phone a mainstream smartphone platform. The risk to Microsoft is that other handset makers may choose not to compete with Nokia and may turn their backs on Windows Phone.
    03-26-11 10:09 PM
  2. Crucial_Xtreme's Avatar
    I don't find it that "interesting". It's one guys opinion. I find a few major flaws. I won't even mention BlackBerry & RIM. I'll just talk about iOS. It's iOS that Google strives to be like. It's iOS that has had Google in a frenzy to catch up to and be like. Yes, Googles market share will grow simply from flooding the market. But this analyst forgets that it's iOS that took the smartphone segment to a different level and for him to ignorantly think Apple won't change anything is his mistake. Again, this is simply someones hypothesis, not fact. It's opinion.
    BlackStormRising likes this.
    03-26-11 10:27 PM
  3. sam81's Avatar
    Agreed that the smartphone market will grow at an amazing rate over the next five years. Just one analysts opinion, though, on who will lead that market, IMO.
    03-26-11 10:29 PM
  4. missing_K-W's Avatar
    How is 16.5% not looking good?it isn't great....but it isn't bad either...

    Apples desktop/laptop marketshare is lower then that...are they currently doing bad ?

    Posted from my CrackBerry at wapforums.crackberry.com
    BlackStormRising likes this.
    03-26-11 10:54 PM
  5. i7guy's Avatar
    Of course it's iOS Google is after... who else would they be after?

    RIM isn't even in the discussion because they are a non-factor for Microsoft, Google or Apple.

    RIM will continue to push out slightly updated phones every year, adding a few MB's of RAM and maybe change their key color. Apple and Google will continue to lead in innovation.
    I agree I'm waiting for them to innovate also.

    Posted from my CrackBerry at wapforums.crackberry.com
    03-26-11 10:58 PM
  6. missing_K-W's Avatar
    Of course it's iOS Google is after... who else would they be after?

    RIM isn't even in the discussion because they are a non-factor for Microsoft, Google or Apple.

    RIM will continue to push out slightly updated phones every year, adding a few MB's of RAM and maybe change their key color. Apple and Google will continue to lead in innovation.
    Are you another one of those guys who are clueless to the caliber of a software company RIM is currently transforming into?

    So QNX+TAT+Tiny Hippo's+cellmania+ Dash navigation+Docs to Go+(the remainder of 10 acquisitions since 2009) and RIM entering the automotive market place etc....

    As well as their marriage to the UofW and Home - Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics (Mike L founded this gem) , not to mention the 300 million$+ blackberry partners fund won't put them in a position to innovate?(Forgot to mention that ones gonna boom for RIM) ......if you ask me.....RIM has an entire treasury of IP moving forward....I'm gonna leave it at that for now

    Posted from my CrackBerry at wapforums.crackberry.com
    Last edited by missing_K-W; 03-26-11 at 11:19 PM.
    03-26-11 11:11 PM
  7. janos2808's Avatar
    Why is this forecast "not looking good" for BB? 16.5% is a bit more than the 16.0% world market share they have now (Gartner Says Worldwide Mobile Device Sales to End Users Reached 1.6 Billion Units in 2010; Smartphone Sales Grew 72 Percent in 2010), so if the smartphone market doubles between now and 2016 and RIM maintains its market share, wouldn't that mean RIM's sales will double?
    BlackStormRising likes this.
    03-27-11 03:27 AM
  8. belfastdispatcher's Avatar
    RIM has a problem that iphone and android don't. Rim has millions of customers that like blackberry the way it is and millions that want it to change, how do you keep both happy?
    Make no mistake, there are many people that want it to stay the way it is.
    New OS sounds good for you but for a big corporations is lots more money to spend on re-training staff.

    Posted from my CrackBerry at wapforums.crackberry.com
    03-27-11 04:44 AM
  9. Skeevecr's Avatar
    RIM has a problem that iphone and android don't. Rim has millions of customers that like blackberry the way it is and millions that want it to change, how do you keep both happy?
    Make no mistake, there are many people that want it to stay the way it is.
    New OS sounds good for you but for a big corporations is lots more money to spend on re-training staff.
    They'll do it the way they do now by providing a range of devices across a variety of networks rather than trying to impose a one size fits all idea onto their range.
    03-27-11 06:07 AM
  10. tumer's Avatar
    you haters make me laugh i wonder how many of you wil be sunging a different tune when QNX is on handhelds.
    03-27-11 06:54 AM
  11. Skeevecr's Avatar
    They will find something else to moan about instead until they have made this place so unwelcoming to anyone who doesn't hate everything about rim and blackberry that they don't have anyone left to troll.
    03-27-11 06:59 AM
  12. lnichols's Avatar
    16.5% of 652 million is 108 million phones per year! Apple would be selling 114 Million. Even assuming these analysts are right those are some great numbers. And as for Android, the longer its around the more fractured it will become IMHO. Also there is an assumption that no other new player will emerge during that time.
    03-27-11 08:53 AM
  13. Rickroller's Avatar
    And as for Android, the longer its around the more fractured it will become IMHO. Also there is an assumption that no other new player will emerge during that time.
    More fractured than OS 4, OS 5, OS 6, OS 6.1, and QNX?

    We already know there might be a new kid on the block in the future OS department..Moto
    03-27-11 09:08 AM
  14. _StephenBB81's Avatar
    RIM has a problem that iphone and android don't. Rim has millions of customers that like blackberry the way it is and millions that want it to change, how do you keep both happy?
    Make no mistake, there are many people that want it to stay the way it is.
    New OS sounds good for you but for a big corporations is lots more money to spend on re-training staff.

    Posted from my CrackBerry at wapforums.crackberry.com
    I agree on this front, Apple could careless about their customers, they drop compatibility and do rewrites on their terms, legacy be damned (OS9 to OSX)


    Google is still so new Legacy is barely a concern, and they have little presence in the corporate world.

    RIM is doing a good Job with QNX it looks like keeping it looking very familiar to BBOS, and that is going to be a good and bad thing for RIM, those big customers that want to minimize retraining costs will be excited that RIM has kept things familiar, those that love the iOS way of doing things will continue to call BBOS outdated looking.


    As for this Analyst, he's making up numbers. Predicting the future, I'm sorry but I can't see Android being the end all top OS, Android will be like Linux and feature after feature will be added to it making it fantastic as the OS of choice for hobbiests, but the low end Manufacturers will be looking for something with a smaller foot print I think by 2016, and you'll have Apple/RIM/Android/Microsoft all in the 20%-18% then there will be a new Open source. Simple OS, maybe a off shoot of Android, maybe a full build in on its self.

    Posted from my CrackBerry at wapforums.crackberry.com
    03-27-11 10:39 AM
  15. belfastdispatcher's Avatar
    I think manufacturers are starting to realize how much they're left at Google's mercy after Xoom/Honeycomb fiasco, still not quite finished, have they even got flash yet?
    I hear Motorola is starting to work on their own OS again.
    And get this, with honeycomb Google going the Apple way, they are not releasing the source code anymore, so much for open source. Is that the end of rooting?

    Posted from my CrackBerry at wapforums.crackberry.com
    BlackStormRising likes this.
    03-27-11 11:06 AM
  16. sleepngbear's Avatar
    RIM has a problem that iphone and android don't. Rim has millions of customers that like blackberry the way it is and millions that want it to change, how do you keep both happy?
    Make no mistake, there are many people that want it to stay the way it is.
    New OS sounds good for you but for a big corporations is lots more money to spend on re-training staff.

    Posted from my CrackBerry at wapforums.crackberry.com
    I don't know about that ... I think they can break away from the old business model while not breaking away from the old business model. They'll do a lot to remedy their position by simply kicking up the hardware specs and tweaking the OS without losing touch with what keeps BB users attracted to them. One of the biggest problems facing them I think is that their only touch-only device, the Storm, is only available on one carrier and really not on par with the other touch-screen phones. Put some real horsepower under the hood, slim it down, and make it available on every carrier, that would do a lot to stop the bleeding.


    More fractured than OS 4, OS 5, OS 6, OS 6.1, and QNX?

    We already know there might be a new kid on the block in the future OS department..Moto
    Interesting comparison there, RIM's OS fragmentation within the brand to accommodate various form factors vs. Android's fragmentation across various manufacturers. RIM can break down that barrier by developing a universally-applicable OS that will work on all of their hardware regardless of form factor. I.e., I don't believe there are multiple versions of WP7, are there? Does anyone know? I don't know if 6.1 will be a step in that direction, or if QNX alone will be the answer.

    It will also be interesting to see if Moto has any success with a new OS. Android is at least partially responsible for bringing them back from obscurity; bringing a new OS into the game at this point would be extremely risky, and they'd have to come up with some very significant differentiators for there to be any chance of it being successful.
    03-27-11 11:22 AM
  17. lnichols's Avatar
    They'll do a lot to remedy their position by simply kicking up the hardware specs and tweaking the OS without losing touch with what keeps BB users attracted to them. One of the biggest problems facing them I think is that their only touch-only device, the Storm, is only available on one carrier and really not on par with the other touch-screen phones. Put some real horsepower under the hood, slim it down, and make it available on every carrier, that would do a lot to stop the bleeding.
    Add the Torch to that list too with the Storm. The fact that they let AT&T and Verizon get an exclusive on their only devices with touch capability has really hurt RIM here in the US. Hopefully they are planning to correct the exclusivity issue with their new releases this late spring/summer.
    BlackStormRising likes this.
    03-27-11 11:35 AM
  18. n8ter#AC's Avatar
    I don't find it that "interesting". It's one guys opinion. I find a few major flaws. I won't even mention BlackBerry & RIM. I'll just talk about iOS. It's iOS that Google strives to be like. It's iOS that has had Google in a frenzy to catch up to and be like. Yes, Googles market share will grow simply from flooding the market. But this analyst forgets that it's iOS that took the smartphone segment to a different level and for him to ignorantly think Apple won't change anything is his mistake. Again, this is simply someones hypothesis, not fact. It's opinion.
    Well, there have been like 20 of these threads in the past month and in every thread people say the same thing "just one analyst, does not matter."
    03-27-11 12:20 PM
  19. n8ter#AC's Avatar
    Add the Torch to that list too with the Storm. The fact that they let AT&T and Verizon get an exclusive on their only devices with touch capability has really hurt RIM here in the US. Hopefully they are planning to correct the exclusivity issue with their new releases this late spring/summer.
    You seem to think (or give that impression) it's all RIM's decision, and like AT&T and Verizon will both want to carry the same phones?

    There's a reason their product line-up is a complete and utter mess (9300 with half the RAM/Storage of a 9330, 9780 on the smallest US carrier, Torch only on AT&T, etc.).

    The same way manufacturers want to differentiate their products, carriers want to differentiate their lineups. Carriers won't just go for getting the same ole, same ole, that every other carrier is getting. They want something different, unique, compelling. They want new customers too, not just reups...
    03-27-11 12:29 PM
  20. Skeevecr's Avatar
    There's a reason their product line-up is a complete and utter mess (9300 with half the RAM/Storage of a 9330, 9780 on the smallest US carrier, Torch only on AT&T, etc.).
    While you might be able to try and make a case that their line-up was a mess due to other reasons, the ones you suggest could have quite simple and logical reasons that have nothing to do with the line-up being a mess, 9300/9330 could be something as simple as the cdma version of bbos taking up more space and needed to be upped to 512mb or it would have missed out on os6.

    As far as 9780 only being on tmobile in the states and at&t having the torch, don't you think there is likely to be a connection there i.e. t-mobile us getting 9780 first so that they also had a new os6 device and not just software upgrades while at&t had grabbed torch with a big enough order.
    03-27-11 12:44 PM
  21. Skeevecr's Avatar
    Well, there have been like 20 of these threads in the past month and in every thread people say the same thing "just one analyst, does not matter."
    The response should be "just another analyst regurgitating the same old drivel, does not matter" instead perhaps?
    03-27-11 12:45 PM
  22. lnichols's Avatar
    You seem to think (or give that impression) it's all RIM's decision, and like AT&T and Verizon will both want to carry the same phones?

    There's a reason their product line-up is a complete and utter mess (9300 with half the RAM/Storage of a 9330, 9780 on the smallest US carrier, Torch only on AT&T, etc.).

    The same way manufacturers want to differentiate their products, carriers want to differentiate their lineups. Carriers won't just go for getting the same ole, same ole, that every other carrier is getting. They want something different, unique, compelling. They want new customers too, not just reups...
    Yeah because the Galaxy S line is so different across all the carriers. The HTC 4.3" offerings are so different. Apple could give the carriers whatever they want to now. You go outside the US and the Torch and Storm can be had on almost any carrier.
    BlackStormRising likes this.
    03-27-11 01:49 PM
  23. i7guy's Avatar
    Well, there have been like 20 of these threads in the past month and in every thread people say the same thing "just one analyst, does not matter."
    That's the thing, it seems as if all these "analysts" are regurgatating the same stuff with a slight twist. I'm not saying these analysts don't have a point, but a lot of the counter-points are much more solid.
    03-27-11 02:51 PM
  24. BlackStormRising's Avatar
    Actually this is an awesome thread. I think most of the Crackberry brain trust showed up with insightful points on all sides and for once it seems the personal attacks were left out of the mix. Two thumbs up!
    03-27-11 03:10 PM
  25. missing_K-W's Avatar
    I think manufacturers are starting to realize how much they're left at Google's mercy after Xoom/Honeycomb fiasco, still not quite finished, have they even got flash yet?
    I hear Motorola is starting to work on their own OS again.
    And get this, with honeycomb Google going the Apple way, they are not releasing the source code anymore, so much for open source. Is that the end of rooting?

    Posted from my CrackBerry at wapforums.crackberry.com
    I'm under the impression they'll release the code when it's ready for prime time

    Posted from my CrackBerry at wapforums.crackberry.com
    03-27-11 04:35 PM
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