[raino]

When the refarming of 1900 MHz spectrum from 2G to 3G/'4G' is eventually completed,

1. Will all of the AWS spectrum have been refarmed to LTE?
2. Will all of the 2G PCS spectrum have been refarmed to 3G/'4G'?

If the answer to both of the questions above is yes,

3. Will TMO switch to primarily selling AT&T-like variants of phones?

So say the Q10 was being released post-refarming. The SQN100-5 on TMO would not have been needed any more because the SQN100-1 would have had the post-refarming 3G/'4G' band (1900 MHz) and LTE band (band 4.)

4. What will happen to older (OS7 and back) phones that don't have the PCS 3G/'4G' band? Will they all roam on AT&T's 2G network?

[evan_2k]

Here for an answer as well...

Posted via CB10

[Troy Tiscareno]

While I can't answer the main question, I can answer part of it.

2G and 3G are in the process of going away. Once LTE is deployed across each carrier's map, new phones sold will offer VoLTE (Voice over LTE), and those phones won't use 2G networks for voice calls like all current phones do. Probably a year later, phones will have ONLY LTE radios. After 2-3 years of that being available, the 2G/3G networks will be shut down and the freq's refarmed for increased LTE bandwidth. Part of these upgrades will also include newer versions of LTE as well.

Any phone that exists today likely has a "death clock" of about 5 years on it, much like when analog cell phones were phased out. That's just the nature of the technology. To service more people and more devices, more bandwidth and higher speeds are needed, and that means updated technologies that make as efficient use of the spectrum as possible.

[raino]

Thanks, Troy. I figured that TMO's not going to support these older devices forever (I have been through a similar situation with AT&T before, where they actually ended up giving people new phones AND waived contracts.)

I was trying to think of reasons why TMO may choose to keep PCS 2G un-refarmed in some areas/markets, but couldn't think of any good ones besides "too many dumb phones accessing the towers, and no likelihood of getting people to upgrade." Can you think of some reasons?

[Troy Tiscareno]

As I said, they can't get rid of 2G until they can move the phone calls off of 2G/GSM. VoLTE is how they're going to do that, but they need to have at least SOME LTE in nearly every market before they can start moving folks to VoLTE. We'll see the first of those phones in 2014, and my guess is that every phone sold in 2015 (including feature phones) will be VoLTE. By 2016 or 17, the 2G and 3G stuff will be phased out and refarmed. Anything that doesn't support LTE by then will simply be out of luck; they'll need the bandwidth so bad by that point that they simply won't care if a relatively few accounts get left behind.

However, the people who will be left behind and will need to struggle to catch up are going to be things like cities and big companies, who use machine-to-machine data. In my city (and in most in the US, I suspect), "smart" power meters work on a mesh network to hop data from meter to meter, and that data eventually connects to a cellular modem on a light pole in the neighborhood that brings data back to the power company. I'm sure the modems in my city are 2G/3G rather than LTE, and will need to be upgraded to continue service.

Similarly, cars that have built-in GSM cellular radios, such as OnStar, are going to be SOL. My buddy has a 1997 Mercedes convertible that cost in the neighborhood of $80,000 new. It had an integrated analog cell phone system, which he was able to get service for in the early 2000s, but the last analog signals were phased out around 2004. In this case, though, I don't think we'll see as long of a transition, because the need for mobile data grows at a huge rate every year, and we can't afford to wait that long.