[docgasberry]

In 2-3 years, my money is on the fact that places like India will have 4G everywhere. When you give 1 billion + people broadband on their phones with no built in loyalty, there is a large market. Goog, MSFT, RIMM, they all know this. If RIM gets 10%$ of India though, that's 100 million people. that's 1/3 the US. RIM only needs 10% market share to do very well.

How many percent of that 1 billion people are by definition living below poverty line? And how many of those NOT living below the poverty line can afford a smartphone let alone a US$500 phone?

I wouldn't bet on 100 million in India ......

[FSeverino]

How many percent of that 1 billion people are by definition living below poverty line? And how many of those NOT living below the poverty line can afford a smartphone let alone a US$500 phone?

I wouldn't bet on 100 million in India ......

that depends... if a lower value phone is released, which BB said they would, then at $200 we could see a high number. I wouldnt say 100M... the financial situation there doesnt support that number, but just by percentages it would have to be high double digit millions

[kfh227]

And that BB10 customer may change out for a new BB11/12/13... phone 12-18 months down the road, starting the higher margins all over again.

Add in increased market share for Blackberry going forward equals increased margins on new market share also.

Add in increased rev's from apps,media sales ..... Well you get the picture.

Prem Watsa said this is a 5 year plan that RIMM has. You might be onto something ;-)

[winter_hat]

Yes, they are all selling

[TheScionicMan]

Not to put a damper on this thread.. as I personally don't beleive the loss of service revenue is a problem.. Blackberry is moving to the same profit on hardware/software model apple uses and does quite well with.. I think that's great and the right move so no issues there.. BUT I do need to correct the point above..while the revenue directly from service will dwindle over the next years (and again, i'm not saying they won't easily replace that revenue and more from other sources) the cost of maintaining the NOC will not decrease substantially.. in fact the cost of running BIS services will actually start to weigh on them in later years as they will be required to maintain it right to the bleeding end with less and less users taking advantage of it. You have to remember that for BB4,5,6,7, devices BIS isn't just a value added service.. those devices physically don't work without it, so they can't turn it off until the last user has made the migration.. and while most people will migrate over the next few years.. there are die hard resistant to change folks out there still holding on to Blackberry 8700's from 2005. That's an 8 years!! I remember when I was working for Rogers, we decided to finally cut the power to the old legacy network.. had probably been nearly 10 years since we had switched to GSM.. people came inn carrying 20 year old bag phones!! We tried to appease them by giving them new phones for free that fit in their pocket.. but these 90 year old war vets would look at you like the damn thing was from outer space.. eventually RIM will likely have to offer replacements to the remaining few thousand hold outs around the world if they really want to kill off BIS, but that's going to be YEARS and the cost of operation will more or less remain as it moves from full capacity to a handful of people using it.


AGAIN! Not trying to be negative.. I have all the confidence in the world that this was the right move for Blackberry.. but we can't pretend like no longer offering sign ups results in the cost of operation vanishing over night. (All that also leaves out the fact that they plan to continue selling BB7 devices in emerging markets for the next few years)

But there's also scalability. They don't have to maintain the peak level when demand drops.

[bert106]

At least one device is sold in India, canceling my old contract yesterday, the operator said he was desperate to get one!

[Malicab]

A non BB user friend of mine went into Salisbury, a small English city to look at the new Z10 on my recommendation on Saturday. He was surprised to find that of all the phone shops, Vodafone, EE, 3, O2 and Carphone Warehouse, only O2 had a poster in the window advertising it. He went into Vodafone and was told they had a demo they could show him. When the salesman brought it from the back shop, the battery was completely dead. The salesman plugged it into a charger but the Z10 would not power up. This is merely an observation of one potential converts experience and admittedly in a very small city, but also one that has all the major outlets. Hopefully all the stores will have the marketing material next week but it seems although we were very fortunate to have this first in the UK, any neutral looking for one would probably not be impressed. Finally, my friend was not put off by this experience and will return next week based on how impressed he is after using my 9900 and PlayBook. For me, I will have to wait until summer before I can upgrade, the only issue being, do I stick with the keyboard of the Q10 or take the plunge and succumb to the bigger screen of the Z10. I wonder how any keyboard users who have switched to the touchscreen are getting on with it. Nice to hear some comments.

[Ben Bubble]

A non BB user friend of mine went into Salisbury, a small English city to look at the new Z10 on my recommendation on Saturday. He was surprised to find that of all the phone shops, Vodafone, EE, 3, O2 and Carphone Warehouse, only O2 had a poster in the window advertising it. He went into Vodafone and was told they had a demo they could show him. When the salesman brought it from the back shop, the battery was completely dead. The salesman plugged it into a charger but the Z10 would not power up. This is merely an observation of one potential converts experience and admittedly in a very small city, but also one that has all the major outlets. Hopefully all the stores will have the marketing material next week but it seems although we were very fortunate to have this first in the UK, any neutral looking for one would probably not be impressed. Finally, my friend was not put off by this experience and will return next week based on how impressed he is after using my 9900 and PlayBook. For me, I will have to wait until summer before I can upgrade, the only issue being, do I stick with the keyboard of the Q10 or take the plunge and succumb to the bigger screen of the Z10. I wonder how any keyboard users who have switched to the touchscreen are getting on with it. Nice to hear some comments.

In response to your keyboard question. I've hated touchscreen with a passion for years and was gunning for the Q10 for that reason. Having received the Z10 on launch day, all I can say is WOW. The keyboard is amazing. I actually type faster then ever before thanks to the awesome predictive text. You also have the swipe gesture that is great for typing one hand, but the way in which it starts to 'learn' how you type is very impressive. This is without a doubt, the best keyboard on any smartphone out there today.

[okkio]

I love Blackberry. My first Blackberry was a Pearl! then I had some Android Phones, Windows Phone 7.5 and iphone. Lately I am back to Blackberry with...WAIT FOR IT: Curve 9320! I know this is not the best, but I couldn't afford on that time the Bold 9900.
I am very impressed with the OS 10. I think they have done something good, but I have been playing with the phone and there is something of a disappointment. It miss the Luxury Feels of the BOLD 9900. I think the Bold 9900 is amazing good looking phone. The Z10 is nice..but very similar to iPhone, Razr i etc... Anyway this is question of taste I suppose. But I have been to Carephone BRIGHTOUSE (I call them like this because they .....), in Bristol. There is a lovely display for Blackberry with the Z10 Black and White. But as there are Demo version, you cannot play with them. Nothing just look at the device and nothing more! Anyway. The guy told me, if you want we have in the main display the Z10 Black fully working and you can have a go. So I go and check it, and surprised: they put this black plastic in the middle of the screen in case somebody decide to steal the phone. Result you can not use it because your thumb has to stop in the middle of the screen. So I told the guy and he said: Yeah I know, ridiculous isn't it..but we have been told to do like this!! Amazing..I don't know what is the worst: The manager who decide to put the plastic security in the middle of the device, the Staff who know this is nonsense but doesn't do anything about it, or Blackberry that has installed Demo phone that you CANNOT play with! Amazing, then I found 02 shop where you can play with the device and surprise: no internet connection, no music in the phone, no videos. How Am I going to spend �480 Sim Free for a phone if I can't see the screen quality with HD video, Browse the Web, or check the Sound quality! Amazing. At least the Bold 9900 has demo music and video and you can check those things. For me this is very important. That's why Apple sells millions of phones because their demo versions are full of stuff and you can try them. That's a real shame. Anyway, so if you have any opinion about the speakers, HD Screen with HD movie please let me know!!!!

[Ben Bubble]

I love Blackberry. My first Blackberry was a Pearl! then I had some Android Phones, Windows Phone 7.5 and iphone. Lately I am back to Blackberry with...WAIT FOR IT: Curve 9320! I know this is not the best, but I couldn't afford on that time the Bold 9900.
I am very impressed with the OS 10. I think they have done something good, but I have been playing with the phone and there is something of a disappointment. It miss the Luxury Feels of the BOLD 9900. I think the Bold 9900 is amazing good looking phone. The Z10 is nice..but very similar to iPhone, Razr i etc... Anyway this is question of taste I suppose. But I have been to Carephone BRIGHTOUSE (I call them like this because they .....), in Bristol. There is a lovely display for Blackberry with the Z10 Black and White. But as there are Demo version, you cannot play with them. Nothing just look at the device and nothing more! Anyway. The guy told me, if you want we have in the main display the Z10 Black fully working and you can have a go. So I go and check it, and surprised: they put this black plastic in the middle of the screen in case somebody decide to steal the phone. Result you can not use it because your thumb has to stop in the middle of the screen. So I told the guy and he said: Yeah I know, ridiculous isn't it..but we have been told to do like this!! Amazing..I don't know what is the worst: The manager who decide to put the plastic security in the middle of the device, the Staff who know this is nonsense but doesn't do anything about it, or Blackberry that has installed Demo phone that you CANNOT play with! Amazing, then I found 02 shop where you can play with the device and surprise: no internet connection, no music in the phone, no videos. How Am I going to spend �480 Sim Free for a phone if I can't see the screen quality with HD video, Browse the Web, or check the Sound quality! Amazing. At least the Bold 9900 has demo music and video and you can check those things. For me this is very important. That's why Apple sells millions of phones because their demo versions are full of stuff and you can try them. That's a real shame. Anyway, so if you have any opinion about the speakers, HD Screen with HD movie please let me know!!!!

There is a retail mode on the Z10 - Not sure what it looks like though. I haven't got a retailer code to see.

Settings > Display > Advanced

[Jaybles]

I played with the retail mode at a shop yesterday.

I say played with, more worked out how to turn it off haha. I hate retail modes but then they arent designed for me. Lots of people were going up to the z10 and going through the retail demo which shows things like hub, timeshift camera, keyboard. I

[okkio]

I think that if you want to play and try a phone before buying it has to be as Apple does. In an Apple Store you can play,touch, and do what you want with their devices!

[Daniel Ratcliffe]

I got to try out a BB10 device yesterday. Not surprised they're selling out. One lass started talking to me in an O2 store about (I'm not a rep/guru FFS!) and I had to admit I'm a Nokia Lumia 920 user (and have to stick with it as I've only had it 2 weeks. The rep said "Take it back for a refund and get a BB10". The only problem there is I bought it SIM-free, there was no cooling off period for me), but was very interested in the Z10. It certainly looks really nice. However the phone in the O2 store crashed out on me as I tried to use it. So the rep came over and started trying to fix it. It was taking longer than intended so he took me to a SECOND demo unit so I could have a look round it. Instinctively, I was stuck in the Retail Demo mode (it was password protected to get out of it too! That threw me for six followed by a triple home run!), so I asked the rep, who then proceeded to unlock it for me. Very impressed with the Z10. If I could have afforded it, I would have almost gone to Carphone Warehouse and bought one SIM-free there and then! The almost being... I'm too heavily invested in the MS ecosystem, so it would have had to have been a secondary phone (perhaps a daytime phone whereby I need a more corporate attitude? Obviously if I'm off clubbing the Nokia Lumia 920 is going to hit the mark so much better!). So yeah, I can see why they're selling out. They were being pushed to me like it was the second coming of Jesus! And the reps seemed really knowledgeable too, and I was being told by one rep he got one on launch day. Definitely a lot of hype around it.

[world traveler and former ceo]

Consumers, not analyst Or bloggers with hidden agendas, are speaking .. and clearly .. THEY ARE LOVING the BB Z10!!... UK!! ... Then Canada this week!! ... then ..... bb z10 exudes super cool!!

[RubberChicken76]

Even 100,000 would be a massive number that would be picked up on - people really overestimate how many phones are sold at launch.

Then what are they? Not suggesting you could be wrong, but I don't think you're in any position whatseover to discount this analysts' data when you yourself don't have data to back up your own claim.

[sleepngbear]

when it comes to watching line ups for stores, Blackberry has a lot of corporate customers, and so i doubt
that they are going to stand in line to pick up say 50 phones.
something to consider...

I seriously doubt corporate customers are standing in line anywhere. Dollars to donuts these are 99.97% consumers. It's positive news no matter how anybody wants to try to spin it. Let's hope that enthusiasm continues when the US carriers get around to actually selling them.

[RubberChicken76]

only prolong a slow bleedng death IMO
they certainly dont have to dominate, although there is no reason why they couldn't, but they need some firm footing in the states

Sorry, but I'm not buying this. It's much more difficult, but other tech products have survived fine without doing well in the US. To use a console reference, the Sega Master System. Tanked in the US (I think 2 million sold) but sold six or seven times that number worldwide due to strong sales in Europe, Latin America etc. Wasn't discontinued for another five years after it died in the U.S. for every one game it had in the U.S., there were several that were released internationally.

There are other electronics examples as well.

Even with Nokia. Did Nokia ever have a gigantic US Smartphone business at any point in time? They certainly weren't always in trouble and the trouble for them showed when the competition snuck into international markets.

[sarahrich]

Well Im one of them lol

[slick1two]

True, but their gross margin on the phones is much higher than not selling phones at all Plus I am sure they are attracting new customers, not just current BB users. And BlackBerry may make up losses in BIS by selling more apps as they do get a cut of the profits.

It's interesting because I think a lot of people who are ditching their iphones could well have been BB users who defected, due to various reasons. but maybe never really lost the love for BB phones. Now that the Z10 has landed, you are getting a mix of returning BB owners, current bb owners and totally new customers. On that basis I think the Z10 could do very well.

Let's face is, Apple have offered nothing the past 2 years. 2 years is a long time in the tech world. Giving people an extra row of icons is NOT innovation. Giving people peek, flow, BBM screen share etc, now that's progress. You've got the simplicity that iphone owners love, plus you've got a quick and responsive UI experience and the apps are coming. That's enough to get excited about, for those who do not want to go the Android route.

[HKain7]

How many percent of that 1 billion people are by definition living below poverty line? And how many of those NOT living below the poverty line can afford a smartphone let alone a US$500 phone?

I wouldn't bet on 100 million in India ......

Around 350 million people in India are considered middle class and those numbers are growing. That's about the whole population of the United States, this past summer I went to India with my dad (Regional Sales Manager) and let me tell you, all you see is BlackBerry. You'll spot an iPhone but that person would also have a BlackBerry, same in Dubai also.

[sleepngbear]

Well Im one of them lol

WELL?????????????

[lnichols]

So if several hundred thousand is a sellout, I see why the US is lagging because RIM probably couldn't make enough in time to give all four carriers adequate launch inventory!

[SparrowhawkMMU]

Phones4U in Bristol (UK) had sold out today. CW had some left, but the assistants were too busy chatting to notice a punter looking for a demo, so I played with the Retail Mode - not that impressed (the Retail Mode, not BB10 of course). The demo is rather lacklustre and does not really let you play with the OS properly, which is a great shame. The assistants were "too busy" to demo me a Z10 on Friday in EE's shop in Bath too. Charming service from our retail phone shops, as ever. I'll pop over to the O2 shop in Bath next week to try it out - they are usually more helpful.

Also, I'm in two minds about the case - when put alongside a 9900 or compared to a PlayBook, it feels flimsy. Compared to my current phone (iPhone 4), it feels positivey plasticky. Maybe it's something you get used to, but it was quite a shock after the all glass surface feel of the iPhone. It is, however, very light which is nice.

Will I be getting one... probably. I'm in no hurry, as there are a few apps I really want on my phone before committing (Skype and Kindle are already in the pipeline, so that's fine, but also I need a password manager that can easily share data with 1Password with (or ideally 1Password itself), and I'd like a decent SatNav app - not the limited Bing Maps turn by turn). So probably sometime later this year.

In the meantime I will get my QNX fix with my PlayBooks which continue to delight me. Way better than iPads - my wife disagrees, but she's wrong ;-)

[crackberryjill]

The American carriers themselves may have decided they wanted to see how well it did elsewhere before ordering their initial stock of units.. Afraid of overstock, but don't want to end up understocked either.

[Bobert_123]

God I hate U.S. carriers for this BS delay