READ THIS London Calling On The BB10 - Seeking Alpha
Printable View
Now imagine good US launch..we are talking millions within few months..
From one of analyst ericjackson
Feb. 3 at 11:00 AM
$RIMM market share by country: USA 22%, uk 11%, Saudi Arabia 7%, UAE 5%, Phillippines 4%, Canada 4%, France 4%, Spain 4% $BBRY
So I'm a little concerned that I walked out of my local O2 store without signing up for a Z10. The O2 guru (well the one who knew how to get the Z10 out of demo mode) told me he would be able to get me two (one for my wife) if they happened to sell out. One other punter was looking at the other demo model after initially asking about a Samsung. Two features I really liked were photo cropping and using the keyboard in landscape
Been saying this for about a week now. My thoughts have changed though. Turns out all carriers agreed to launch the same day in the USA. If verizon testing is not actually the reason for delay, this results in a conspiracy since all carriers would have to go with this excuse while supply is manufactured. When it comes to things like this, I am all about occoms razor. Its actually testing delaying this
Is he saying they will have 22% of US or they do have 22%? I didn't think RIM had that market share in the USA. Either way would be good.
So I'm a little concerned that I walked out of my local O2 store without signing up for a Z10. The O2 guru (well the one who knew how to get the Z10 out of demo mode) told me he would be able to get me two (one for my wife) if they happened to sell out. One other punter was looking at the other demo model after initially asking about a Samsung. Two features I really liked were photo cropping and using the keyboard in landscape
Glad to know UK is showing love to BB10... Love it, Thanks for sharing!
At the time that Nokia was very popular ie in Europe, here in the USA Motorola was way outselling them. Then Nokia decided to stop making CDMA devices for all practical purposes, and shortly after that Verizon (largest CDMA carrier in the world) became the dominant US carrier and has remained-so for several years now. Around that time Nokia was fooling around with their own OS which never went very far here, they basically became irrelevant until they chose to dump all that and hook up with Microsoft.
Rumor has it that there is some delay in the FCC testing of the CDMA model of Z10, which would impact Verizon and Sprint.
The Sprint Version Of The Blackberry Z10 Hasn’t Been Approved By The FCC - The Sprint Cult
Are U.S. Carriers Really Enthused About BlackBerry 10? | News & Opinion | PCMag.com
The service revenue numbers were from some articles by Chris Umiastowski before. Didn't find the original article in a quick search, but this thread references it:
http://forums.crackberry.com/news-ru...e-fees-758808/ - $2-4 per month in BIS revenues fees, so I went with 24 months x $3 per month as some other posters had done before to get to the $72 value per user.
Chris also mentioned that the software and service margins were around 85% before - General Updates on RIM and My Take
Device margins: Needed to calculate that from their earnings report - http://ca.blackberry.com/content/dam...nal_filing.pdf
Software and Services represented 40% of revenue, so $1.08 billion. 85% margins would imply $918 million in gross margins. Hardware would therefore be $1.62 billion in revenue and negative $88 million in gross margins. With 6.9 million phones shipped, that would imply negative $13 per phone in gross margins, although that ignores the impact of the Playbook. Most people think that BB7 margins will go down a bit in the future, so I used a slightly more negative number. I think the negative phone margins have ranged from about negative $10 to negative $30 per device in the last few quarters.
iPhone COGS was estimated at $293. How much does it cost to manufacture an iPhone? | asymco . The BB10s probably cost more to make due to Apple's scale of economy advantages and relatively inexpensive materials. So maybe something like $330 would be reasonable.
BB 10 ASP: You can probably average this out to be about $500 over the fiscal year. According to court documents in the Samsung/Apple court case, the Samsung Galaxy S II had an ASP of around $480-$490 when it was launched. I think that sold for $549 off-contract at AT&T at the time, while the Z10 will sell for $599 now. Non-US pricing seems to be higher, which would raise the average ASP.
Samsung's US shipments revealed in Apple court battle | Technology | guardian.co.uk
As for prices over time after launch, NEW: Smartphone Price Slide indicates that smartphone pricing can go down as much as 20% over the first year. BlackBerry pricing seemed to decrease about 15%.
In any case, $500 - $330 would give a $170 margin per phone, or 34%, which doesn't seem out of line for a flagship smartphone.