[Charles Martin1]

We Canadians will be out by the millions!!! Can't wait!

[DuexNoir]

Such great news! Come on Canada! Let us leave the UK in the dust with our sales number! ...was said in good gesture.

I'll be at my carrier store early Tuesday to grab both black and white!

[snuci]

any one any solid source with info on an amount sold to date ie a good est ... 4 more days till we get ours

I don't think you'll see any solid numbers until after the weekend. It's only been one day so far in one market.

[mrfreeze]

One thing you guys forget about the BIS. They won't have the overhead of maintaining the system. So the cost they actually make per device off of the BIS will be less than what they charge.

[kfh227]

Does anyone know how many phones they can produce per month? I'm starting to think the delay to feb (and March in the US) has something to do with meeting obvious day-1 demand.

I don't know the answer but it makes alot of sense. If it were carrier testing, why does every carrier in Canada have a Feb 5 release date? Why did each carrier in the UK have it on the same day? And in the USA, I'm sure every carrier will have it the same day. If it were just testing, why on Earth would any carrier not want to be first?

[kfh227]

I don't think you'll see any solid numbers until after the weekend. It's only been one day so far in one market.

There is an article out there that said two things.

The UK had several hundred thousand in stores on release. Most stores are sold out. Resupply not coming till Monday.

[W Hoa]

Originally Posted by bk1022

Does anyone know how many phones they can produce per month? I'm starting to think the delay to feb (and March in the US) has something to do with meeting obvious day-1 demand.

I read an article back in early December/late November, I believe. They were raising production from 500,000 to 2 million per month. It could have changed again.

[snuci]

There is an article out there that said two things.

The UK had several hundred thousand in stores on release. Most stores are sold out. Resupply not coming till Monday.

Here's one article: BlackBerry Z10 Off To 'Strong Start,' Analyst Contends - Forbes

[tiziano27]

"Several hundred thousand" is at least 300.000 phones. If in the UK the user base is 30 million, sales would be more than 1% of the user base in less than two days. The z10 may be doing well but this is too good to be true. Probably the analyst is long on the stock, trying to recover losses, he exaggerated the estimate.

[Andrew4life]

The only source that I have seen thus far is Jefferies...............

All other articles are referencing him. I hope he's right, but he's an analyst, so I'll only believe it when carriers actually start releasing numbers publicly.

[_BB10_]

Is there anybody on the ground in the UK who can give us some reliable data points?

[kfh227]

"Several hundred thousand" is at least 300.000 phones. If in the UK the user base is 30 million, sales would be more than 1% of the user base in less than two days. The z10 may be doing well but this is too good to be true. Probably the analyst is long on the stock, trying to recover losses, he exaggerated the estimate.

a : more than one <several pleas>
b : more than two but fewer than many <moved several inches>
c chiefly dialect : being a great many


Sorry, could be 200,000 but probably no less.

250,000 would represent about 0.4% of the population in the UK.

[hurds]

Here's the math for you:

BB7: Average margin per device: negative $30. Might be better in the UK due to higher end BB7 models being sold, so there may be some upside there.

Service revenues per BIS user: $72. Estimated service revenue margin percentage: 85% = Service revenue margins of $61.

So the average BB7 customer is worth $31.

Even if there is no service fee revenue for a BB10 customer, the device margins are likely to be in the $150-$200 range, making a BB10 customer worth 5x that of a BB7 customer.

Or the other way to look at it is that a BB7 customer would need to stick around for about 6 years generating service fees on their original device to equal the value of a BB10 customer.

Another thing to consider is that many of these people are likely ditching old androids and stale iphones for BB10. And thats all new money. Plus we don't even know about whats happening to services fees. They were under pressure, but are we certain they are zero? Even if they are, there is a percentage of sales that aren't switching from BB and thats money they didnt have before.

[Dapper37]

Awesome! Plus for every UK customer who migrates to a new Z10, BlackBerry loses $5/mo. in BIS fees or thereabouts..

It's just as easy for those phones to go into the hands of yet another BlackBerry customer, rendering a good portion of your assumption mute.

[mathking606]

they don not lose bis money on BB10 since there is no option. They will only start to lose money from service revenue in a couple of years.

[Dapper37]

in fairness the several hundred thousand comment is about sell in and not sell thru. just bein realistic people

He specifically compared it to ip5 sell through of 5 million? So I'm not sure your correct.

[kfh227]

1) New phones are higher margin
2) New phones have things like music and apps for sale

/thread

[chrysaurora]

Bell was out of stock and so was Telus but (from what I have been told) it was simply because they ordered too few BlackBerry devices to begin-with. Their inventory was < 5,000 to begin-with. So, yeah, if they sold even 5K, they'd be out of stock. But that's not really a bad thing. It tells them that they grossly under-estimated the market for BlackBerry! Next time, they'll order more! Plus, now that they know there is a demand for BlackBerry devices, they'd give BlackBerry more real-estate/space in their advertisements.

I didn't pre-order because I was (am) afraid that "pre-ordered" devices might reach later than if you were to purchase directly from store on day 1. I am sure there are many many people like me who would buy directly in-store on day 1 without having pre-ordered already. Plus, there are several people who like to touch/feel phone before purchasing. So, I don't think BlackBerry is going to have difficult time reaching surpassing their initial estimates.

[Dapper37]

Even 100,000 would be a massive number that would be picked up on - people really overestimate how many phones are sold at launch.

It's being picked up right now!

[FSeverino]

It's being picked up right now!

Where? News?

[texazzpete]

Be best to wait for solid news...we had all the talk of sell outs of the Lumia 900 on AT&t...ended up being 300000 units sold in a Quarter.

If BB sells several hundreds of thousands in a weekend, we'll surely hear from them.

[FSeverino]

We will!

Laksjzjdu

[Lehomer]

February 1, 2013 | about: RIMM - Michael Collins - Former Hedge Fund Analyst in London.
What does this mean to you?
Well, if a Blackberry with barely any ad support in the UK and no keyboard (?) is flying off the shelf, you need to understand that the un-crossable bridge for Blackberry, selling new phones in the first world, has just been crossed, and it managed this with a keyboard less phone.

[gjohnsto]

February 1, 2013 | about: RIMM - Michael Collins - Former Hedge Fund Analyst in London.
What does this mean to you?
Well, if a Blackberry with barely any ad support in the UK and no keyboard (?) is flying off the shelf, you need to understand that the un-crossable bridge for Blackberry, selling new phones in the first world, has just been crossed, and it managed this with a keyboard less phone.

Link please!

[Dunmanway Emar]

Spoke to t-mobile yesterday morning. The guy said they had exactly 100 left which given their call volume at that time, would sell out in 10 minutes