[Dgree03]

Smartphone market share year over year..

http://www.engadget.com/2013/04/01/w...sees-big-gain/

This isn't good...

We will have to see the numbers from March through June to know how much the Z10 (and possibly q10) change that course.

Posted via CB10

[tchocky77]

Isn't the Facebook phone launching this week as well?

Dangerous times for the third and fourth place players!

[dannyd86]

Damn things change fast.
Keep in mind that goes both ways though. All it takes is a little momentum and blackberry could steal double digit numbers from Android and IOS.

Posted via CB10

[RubberChicken76]

Smartphone market share year over year..

Windows Phone sees big gains at the expense of BlackBerry and Symbian

This isn't good...

We will have to see the numbers from March through June to know how much the Z10 (and possibly q10) change that course.

Posted via CB10

Is anyone really surprised? Look at the last quarter? Blackberry walked into Christmas with 18 month old devices and told the world that the new platform was going to be announced a month following Christmas ...?

If the trend continues for - say September, then panic.

[Andrew4life]

These numbers are pretty meaningless at this point because they are smartphone SALES.
This covers only a 3 month period.
Most people who were even CONSIDERING a BlackBerry phone within 3 months prior to February would wait until the Z10 came out.
Lets see what the numbers are next time. I'd be pretty confident BlackBerry smartphone sales will match or exceed WIndows Phone.

[Rickster1]

Relevant? I guess one needs to put it in context. BB was only shipping OS 7 devices for most of this period, WP8 had a major launch and Symbian is basically Nokia that is now aligned with WP 8. Great example of how stats can be misleading if taken without any context. It is business as usual for the 3rd and fourth players. Not sure how 1 and 2 will sustain their lead. There could be be some mis step or **** up out of any of the players at anytime that could swing things dramatically. It has been very quiet out of Apple for a long time so perhaps they have something coming. If it an oS change will they make a clean break and orphan all previous users? Can't see how they can come out with a thinner and lighter iphone 5s or 6 and get away with it but the basis of Apple is marketing and consumers are nearly always fooled by new and improved! Pretty hard to go forward with a new osand keep legacy stuff intact as well. At some point growth will slow, margins will be hit and the need for something else to juice growth is needed or you have what's called a mature market.

[Dapper37]

They did a good job at digging up old info here. It's clear BB10 is outselling WP8 Already.

[RubberChicken76]

They did a good job at digging up old info here. It's clear BB10 is outselling WP8 Already.

We don't have data that proves this either. I'm sure it's possible that more Z10s were sold in some markets than Windows Phones. But Z10 and Q10 still aren't fully available in others and there are markets where Windows Phone and Nokia does well. I wouldn't assume that BlackBerry is outselling Lumia's in Finland, for example ... any more than I think Lumia's are outselling Z10s in Waterloo. :-) Aggregated together, Windows Phone is probably still outselling by a good margin due to availability (manufacturer, global distribution)

[Admorris]

They did a good job at digging up old info here. It's clear BB10 is outselling WP8 Already.

It is?

Sent from my LG-E970 using Tapatalk 2

[tiziano27]

If you compare Kantar's data for BlackBerry in UK:
November-January: 5,8%
December-February: 5,1%

So, November sales of BB7 goes out and February with z10 sales goes in, and the market share is down?
This coincide with the loss of subscribers, BB7 is slowing down too fast, and BB10 is not growing fast enough to counter the lost of users.

This is what Kantar says about the z10:

Sunnebo continues: “The launch of the BlackBerry Z10 has not resulted in an immediate turn around for the Canadian company in Great Britain. Although the new model received great reviews, it’s going to take time for BlackBerry to see share gains. Consumers just don’t have the same levels of pent up demand for the handset as they did for the iPhone 5.

“Over the past few years it has been BlackBerry’s budget devices, like the Curve 8520 and 9320, which have been selling well and these attract a young, price sensitive consumer. The Z10 is a high-end handset with a price to match, so going after its existing base of consumers will require a significant trade up. The handset is likely to start selling in more serious numbers once the launch price falls, and BlackBerry 10 in general, when the range is padded out with a number of wallet-friendly mid-range offerings.”

News - Google branding helps LG back into the smartphone market - Kantar Worldpanel

I think BlackBerry has to change the strategy and launch mid and low range devices sooner.

Nokia launched the L520 a dual core phone for less tan $200, I don't know if they are making any money with that handset, but are going to grab several points of market share.

[lipper2000]

If you compare Kantar's data for BlackBerry in UK:
November-January: 5,8%
December-February: 5,1%

So, November sales of BB7 goes out and February with z10 sales goes in, and the market share is down?
This coincide with the loss of subscribers, BB7 is slowing down too fast, and BB10 is not growing fast enough to counter the lost of users.

This is what Kantar says about the z10:

News - Google branding helps LG back into the smartphone market - Kantar Worldpanel

I think BlackBerry has to change the strategy and launch mid and low range devices sooner.

Nokia launched the L520 a dual core phone for less tan $200, I don't know if they are making any money with that handset, but are going to grab several points of market share.

I think Nokia are selling the Lumia 520 for around $150-$180 depending on the market...they are making money on it I'm sure...the hardware is typical Nokia...fantastic build quality but they cut corners with things like the camera quality and screen for this price...

Android is continuing it's worldwide domination...iOS is very strong in western markets but not very strong outside in emerging markets and this is why I think Nokias plan to go after the emerging markets as well is very smart...

I don't understand why BB didn't release hardware from the start that covered the spectrum of devices required...they also should have developed something better for the emerging markets on the data side of things....people in Indonesia use BB"s because they use hardly any data for BB IM...if they have to switch to a new phone, there is now nothing that BB has that gives them an advantage

The sales data from Kantar (on engadget) show WP finally breaking through in most western markets, including the US...

http://www.engadget.com/2013/04/01/w...sees-big-gain/

[cbvinh]

I don't understand why BB didn't release hardware from the start that covered the spectrum of devices required...they also should have developed something better for the emerging markets on the data side of things....people in Indonesia use BB"s because they use hardly any data for BB IM...if they have to switch to a new phone, there is now nothing that BB has that gives them an advantage

Given how long it's taken just to get the Z10, and soon Q10, to market, hopefully it's clear to you why BB didn't "just start" with a whole spectrum of devices. They said they'll be filling in the gaps.

BB7 is still working, with lower data usage and BBM, so there's no reason people in Indonesia need to buy into BB10 at this point.

[tiziano27]

Given how long it's taken just to get the Z10, and soon Q10, to market, hopefully it's clear to you why BB didn't "just start" with a whole spectrum of devices. They said they'll be filling in the gaps.

BB7 is still working, with lower data usage and BBM, so there's no reason people in Indonesia need to buy into BB10 at this point.

I think there is a business reason too. In the case of the z10 the margin is bigger than the sum of the monthly payment for service the older models generate.
This is not the case for a mid-low range phone, the margin is not enough to counter the loss of the service income. The company lose money for every user that switch to BB10.
Besides, without a cheaper alternative they force enthusiastic fans to buy the expensive phone, they maximize the benefit of an early inelastic demand.

[RubberChicken76]

I think there is a business reason too. In the case of the z10 the margin is bigger than the sum of the monthly payment for service the older models generate.

This is a dangerous position to take as you know the prices will eventually fall. Hardware is just too competitive, thanks to all the Android one-up-manship going on. While the service revenue is at risk long term, it does provide much more stability in the near-term than Z10 margins. Anyone seriously think Z10 won't see price drops this summer? This isn't BlackBerry-bashing - just realistic. The prices are higher now while they're early adopter interest.

[Zarpan]

If you compare Kantar's data for BlackBerry in UK:
November-January: 5,8%
December-February: 5,1%

So, November sales of BB7 goes out and February with z10 sales goes in, and the market share is down?
This coincide with the loss of subscribers, BB7 is slowing down too fast, and BB10 is not growing fast enough to counter the lost of users.

It's actually near impossible to tell what February's market share was based on three month data unless there are a bunch of reporting periods in a row before where market share was stable. I checked through Kantar's past data, and couldn't find a long enough stretch for BlackBerry where this was true in the UK.

There can be pretty large spikes in monthly sales due to promotional activities. When checking through past Kantar data, it looks like there is a fairly high probability that there were sales spikes in August and November.

One scenario that roughly fits the three month market share data for past reports:

August: 14%
September: 5%
October: 5%
November: 10%
December: 4.5%
January: 3%
February: 7.8%

That satisfies both:

November-January: 5.8%
December-February: 5.1%

In that case, November's strong sales were knocked out of the latest report, which is why market share went down despite February share increasing.

As I mentioned, there wasn't good data before May though, so this might not be entirely accurate since I had to guess at market shares for some of the summer months. We'll find out for sure in about two months though what BlackBerry's market share actually is. Definitely can't be sure for February based on this report though.

[BBVegasGirl80]

Isn't the Facebook phone launching this week as well?

Dangerous times for the third and fourth place players!

I thought it was an April Fools joke, but it's true: http://www.forbes.com/sites/tomiogeron/2013/04/01/facebook-phone-speculation-grows-amid-report-of-phone-specs/

[lnichols]

This is based on sales for the the three month period ending in February. It is not total marketshare. Of course BlackBerry hardly sold any phones in the US because the Z10 was not available in the US until just after the window of this study. Lets look at the same number three months from now and see how many Windows Phones vs. BlackBerry devices were sold, and then another three months from then when you have both the Q10 and Z10 available.

Also the Facebook phone will be just another Android device and count in with the Android sales.

[Wilsonia Goldens]

Here is data for last week in USA, Canada and UK: BB is ahead in all three districts:

[B4509]

I'd be suspicious of Engadget with this article, they fail to mention the most loss actually comes from iOS in some areas, despite what the headline says

Posted via CB10

[Bbnivende]

Regardless BB has a dedicated user base to draw from . Could be room for four OS's. It will help when BB gets a mid tier touch phone to market and the Aristo . BB has no China strategy ... Urgently needs a partner like Lenovo.

[richardat]

Here is data for last week in USA, Canada and UK: BB is ahead in all three districts:

That is not sales marketshare. You are showing a completely different metric. I have noticed that statcounter hasn't shown any increase since the z10 went on sale, but I'm not sure if this is due to there being no impact, or if perhaps bb10 is not being measured. Having said that, with sales quite small, it wouldn't surprise to see very little impact in this metric from bb10 at this point.

[sylvaing]

According to Kantar, for the 3 months ending in January 2013, the % of BB phone sold in UK was 5.8%. For the 3 months ending in February 2013, that % of was down to 5.1%. Now this worries me since the Z10 was released for the whole month of February there. I though it should have fared better IMHO, not worse.

[tiziano27]

It's actually near impossible to tell what February's market share was based on three month data unless there are a bunch of reporting periods in a row before where market share was stable. I checked through Kantar's past data, and couldn't find a long enough stretch for BlackBerry where this was true in the UK.

There can be pretty large spikes in monthly sales due to promotional activities. When checking through past Kantar data, it looks like there is a fairly high probability that there were sales spikes in August and November.

One scenario that roughly fits the three month market share data for past reports:

August: 14%
September: 5%
October: 5%
November: 10%
December: 4.5%
January: 3%
February: 7.8%

That satisfies both:

November-January: 5.8%
December-February: 5.1%

In that case, November's strong sales were knocked out of the latest report, which is why market share went down despite February share increasing.

As I mentioned, there wasn't good data before May though, so this might not be entirely accurate since I had to guess at market shares for some of the summer months. We'll find out for sure in about two months though what BlackBerry's market share actually is. Definitely can't be sure for February based on this report though.

I think they changed the serie in January. Until December it was "12 months ending in 12-23", for January is "3 Months ending in January". So no chance to deduce the monthly share.
But from the commentary you can guess that February wasn't good -taking into account the variance-, or the guy wouldn't be saying that.

[Kid Vibe]

Windows... eh. Their marketing is crap, I can't see them having an impact like BB for some time.

[Zarpan]

I think they changed the serie in January. Until December it was "12 months ending in 12-23", for January is "3 Months ending in January". So no chance to deduce the monthly share.
But from the commentary you can guess that February wasn't good -taking into account the variance-, or the guy wouldn't be saying that.

Yeah, they changed it, so the estimates are a bit more inexact than usual.

The commentary from Kantar indicated that they thought it would take some time and mid-priced range models for BlackBerry to see share gains. However, it isn't clear whether they were comparing market share for February to January or whether they were comparing the three month period ending February 2013 vs. the same period ending February 2012.

Their commentary seems to revolve around comparisons vs. a year ago instead of month by month data, so I'd favor the latter interpretation. In that case, the commentary makes sense since Z10 is only going to make a partial dent vs. the share loss from the 16.8% share they had last year at best.