03-22-14 07:09 AM
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  1. --TommesJay--'s Avatar
    You are conflating two data sources with different metrics. In reality NL 520 sales are likely around 70%+ of Windows Phone sales, but of course if you remove the most popular handset sales will be "actually declining".

    I heard iPhone sales were also declining if we exclude the iPhone 5S.
    Well not too valid, as the 520 is a low end device opposed to the 5S being Apple's highest end flagship. Meaning if high end WP sales are declining, BB10 has more room for improvement in the premium sector.
    03-16-14 07:06 AM
  2. Gesig Boek's Avatar
    Ding Ding Ding. Your are 100 % correct. This is why Apple and Google already won. You could have the greatest phone OS. If you don't have easy access to all the apps your screwed. You can pay these people like MS to make a native app for your OS but after there paid why should they update a platform with little to no market share? There better off improving their apps for iOS and Android. Hell, there better off making really good tablet apps. I'm sure Android has more tablet users than either MS or BB have phone users. In the end those apps will not be updated anything like iOS or Android and everyone will know it.
    Actually I think there is reason why most important apps will come to all major platforms. Its called bureaucracy. Imagine you are the developers in an organization who's job it is to create mobile apps. You made your iOS app, you made your Android app, you've added and added features to them, but you are clearly coming to the point of diminishing returns, and you can justify your staff anymore. Either you expand to other platforms or you accept that you will be downsized in the next budget.

    Its the same reason charities never shut down and government departments never get smaller. So as apps mature, most important ones will eventually diffuse to the smaller platforms also. The problem is really the new apps, leading to the new concept of not the App Gap, but App Lag, ie the apps will come, but only eventually.
    03-16-14 07:07 AM
  3. Gesig Boek's Avatar
    Well not too valid, as the 520 is a low end device opposed to the 5S being Apple's highest end flagship. Meaning if high end WP sales are declining, BB10 has more room for improvement in the premium sector.
    Well, I established earlier that the state of Windows Phone is the same as Android, ie dominated by the low end, so presumably the decline of Android will give BB10 an even bigger gap.
    03-16-14 07:09 AM
  4. qbnkelt's Avatar
    Who cares? Every one of us who is bold enough to carry one of these amazing devices knows that we wield the finest communication and productivity tool available. You think I care what typical consumers think? Think again.

    But that's not my point. The market will eventually catch up. It typically takes 3-5 years between the time new technology becomes available and the time it becomes widely adopted. This was true for the iPhone, the original BlackBerry, the worldwide web, email, Facebook, cable TV, etc.

    BB10 is new technology, as those of us who have put it and its competitors to the test well know. Patience. By January 30, 2016, it will be clear that things are turning around in a big way. A year after that, Apple will be paying to license QNX for its mobile OS. Mark my words.
    Noted. Thread subscribed to. Be back in January 30, 2016.
    03-16-14 07:20 AM
  5. imz's Avatar
    All true but Microsoft has 80 Billion in cash reserves. Not that the company is worth 80 billion. They have CASH of 80 Billion. Now your telling me that a company around 26 times the money (cash) on hand has anything to worry about. MS could give these phones away for cost and still have more than 80 Billion in the bank. There still making money on their enterprise products. I'm sorry but BB with around 3 Billion in the bank is like an ant to MS. MS could look in their seat cushions in the executive wing to buy BB if they wanted.

    http://usfinancepost.com/why-microso...ash-12172.html
    No I'm not telling you Microsoft has anything to worry about lol

    I'm asking "who will out perform" between the two, and we all know Microsoft has always had more cash than any other company in their seat cushions yet :

    * Nokia out performed Microsoft in mobile
    * Then BlackBerry came & became king
    * Along came the iPhone and took over
    * Samsung came and stole the throne

    And all while the company with billions in the bank is fighting the small ant for third place and not apple or Samsung for first place, the very companies with billions in the bank also.

    I think BlackBerry is doing very well against the beast Microsoft,
    >3billion vs 80billion
    D_Gui likes this.
    03-16-14 07:22 AM
  6. neo158's Avatar
    At least two wrong statements:
    -WP sales didn't decline nor stayed flat in US. Market share of WP stayed flat (3.1%) in US and because all market grew in US it means that absolute sales grew too. Without new models and without WP8.1 not bad result.
    -Nokia every time launched new high end models in US. BB has strategy to launch in UK and Canada first.
    That's exactly what I said, thanks Captain Obvious. He used US sales because they are the weakest but looking at Europe and parts of South America WP is outselling the iPhone. BlackBerry is the one that's in decline, and it's that decline that made it appear as if WP sales went up in the US.
    dolco likes this.
    03-16-14 07:40 AM
  7. --TommesJay--'s Avatar
    Well, I established earlier that the state of Windows Phone is the same as Android, ie dominated by the low end, so presumably the decline of Android will give BB10 an even bigger gap.
    Is there any indication that Android is declining in the premium sector? Or let's say upper midrange to high end? So basically....

    Galaxy S (incl Mini)
    Galaxy Note
    HTC One (incl Mini and Max)
    Xperia Z (incl Ultra and Compact)
    Moto X
    Droid
    LG G (incl Pro)
    ....and whatnot devices? I don't think they're declining....
    03-16-14 08:04 AM
  8. Bishkin's Avatar
    I was told by friends that BB got no sales in Asia for last month. Sales decline for WP phones does not have to translate to increase in sales for BB.
    03-16-14 08:19 AM
  9. D_Gui's Avatar
    That's exactly what I said, thanks Captain Obvious. He used US sales because they are the weakest but looking at Europe and parts of South America WP is outselling the iPhone. BlackBerry is the one that's in decline, and it's that decline that made it appear as if WP sales went up in the US.
    I didn't actually use US sales, I used total sales, I am glad you think WP could do ~9mil in the US per quarter right now. BlackBerry is in a decline, BlackBerry OS, whereas BlackBerry 10 is actually increasing albeit slowly, but increasing nonetheless... The Lumia 520/521 won't be there forever, and unless MS addresses the problem, as soon as L520 sales start declining, the total decline would become apparent...
    03-16-14 11:46 AM
  10. 12Danny123's Avatar
    I didn't actually use US sales, I used total sales, I am glad you think WP could do ~9mil in the US per quarter right now. BlackBerry is in a decline, BlackBerry OS, whereas BlackBerry 10 is actually increasing albeit slowly, but increasing nonetheless... The Lumia 520/521 won't be there forever, and unless MS addresses the problem, as soon as L520 sales start declining, the total decline would become apparent...
    Which is why they hired local OEMs from China and India. They have more growth power for WP than Nokia.

    More information about Lava, Karbonn and Xolo€™s Windows Phones released | WMPoweruser

    Seven WP8.1 devices from 2 OEMs ALONE! At $100-$200 price points!
    03-16-14 11:54 AM
  11. neo158's Avatar
    I didn't actually use US sales, I used total sales, I am glad you think WP could do ~9mil in the US per quarter right now. BlackBerry is in a decline, BlackBerry OS, whereas BlackBerry 10 is actually increasing albeit slowly, but increasing nonetheless... The Lumia 520/521 won't be there forever, and unless MS addresses the problem, as soon as L520 sales start declining, the total decline would become apparent...
    Yeah, total US sales. Windows Phone is doing much better outside the US which is something that chart isn't taking into account. The 52x range will end up being replaced at some point but not right now, which means that the very, VERY minor drop is likely due to imminent release of WP8.1 with both users holding off on upgrading and carriers holding off on new phones until it's released.
    03-16-14 12:00 PM
  12. D_Gui's Avatar
    Which is why they hired local OEMs from China and India. They have more growth power for WP than Nokia.

    More information about Lava, Karbonn and Xolo€™s Windows Phones released | WMPoweruser
    Yes, but it will take time for those partners to develop such devices and adoption is going to take a while. It isn't going to go on sale and then everyone all of a sudden buying one. It will make a difference in the long run, but they aren't all of a sudden going to push millions of devices each month...
    03-16-14 12:02 PM
  13. D_Gui's Avatar
    Yeah, total US sales. Windows Phone is doing much better outside the US which is something that chart isn't taking into account. The 52x range will end up being replaced at some point but not right now, which means that the very, VERY minor drop is likely due to imminent release of WP8.1 with both users holding off on upgrading and carriers holding off on new phones until it's released.
    Actually, total global sales, which is what I am using. A drop of 800,000 devices per quarter isn't a very minor for WP. Since WP8.1 is coming to existing devices, it doesn't make sense that users will wait for it to drop before buying and carriers waiting to sell devices. That's like saying carriers/consumers are holding on selling/buying the Galaxy S5/iPhone 5S until Android 4.5/iOS 8 is released...
    03-16-14 12:06 PM
  14. 12Danny123's Avatar
    Yes, but it will take time for those partners to develop such devices and adoption is going to take a while. It isn't going to go on sale and then everyone all of a sudden buying one. It will make a difference in the long run, but they aren't all of a sudden going to push millions of devices each month...
    They're coming in late May and early June and in July-August time frame
    03-16-14 12:14 PM
  15. D_Gui's Avatar
    They're coming in late May and early June and in July-August time frame
    I know, but how long will it take for them to make a considerable difference/impact, another quarter? Another two? Three maybe?
    03-16-14 01:38 PM
  16. Gesig Boek's Avatar
    Is there any indication that Android is declining in the premium sector? Or let's say upper midrange to high end? So basically....

    Galaxy S (incl Mini)
    Galaxy Note
    HTC One (incl Mini and Max)
    Xperia Z (incl Ultra and Compact)
    Moto X
    Droid
    LG G (incl Pro)
    ....and whatnot devices? I don't think they're declining....
    Declining ASPs ie the high end is a smaller and smaller proportion of sales. But only Apple has managed to reverse the demand curve ie the more expensive their handsets are, the better they sell.
    03-16-14 02:01 PM
  17. sati01's Avatar
    The decisive factor in the low end is price. If WP works better than Android in the same cheap hardware the market share will increase.

    The sales of the L520 to end users are actually increasing, Nokia is reducing the price of the L520 as components become cheaper. This was confirmed by Belford. The numbers discussed here are shipments.

    I think MS will launch a model even lower than the 520 with the s200 soc. But I think the key is to reach the $100 price point with 4.5-inch and 5-inch phones. The local OEMs in the two biggest markets are already there.
    neo158 likes this.
    03-16-14 03:18 PM
  18. neo158's Avatar
    Actually, total global sales, which is what I am using. A drop of 800,000 devices per quarter isn't a very minor for WP. Since WP8.1 is coming to existing devices, it doesn't make sense that users will wait for it to drop before buying and carriers waiting to sell devices. That's like saying carriers/consumers are holding on selling/buying the Galaxy S5/iPhone 5S until Android 4.5/iOS 8 is released...
    OK, wait until just before WWDC and see what happens to iPhone sales figures. They suffer a sharp drop as people wait to see what the new device and software brings and then sales pick up again. That's what's happening here.

    The Lumia 52x is going nowhere, it may be replaced at some point but since it's the best selling WP device so do you really think that MS would drop it when it's selling!!
    03-16-14 06:20 PM
  19. 12Danny123's Avatar
    Yes.
    Jakarta will eat its lunch.
    No.... just no... one phone can't go against 13 OEMs and a tech giant. It seems crazy talk
    03-17-14 03:10 AM
  20. --TommesJay--'s Avatar
    Declining ASPs ie the high end is a smaller and smaller proportion of sales. But only Apple has managed to reverse the demand curve ie the more expensive their handsets are, the better they sell.
    That's very sophisticated and well thought through product management on Apple's part. Whereas previous iPhone product cycles had a premium mass appealing design option at all three price points, your only real option as a business user or a user with demand for understating premium design is now the 5S. There's a reason why the 5C hasn't a black color option.....
    03-17-14 04:30 AM
  21. Gesig Boek's Avatar
    That's very sophisticated and well thought through product management on Apple's part. Whereas previous iPhone product cycles had a premium mass appealing design option at all three price points, your only real option as a business user or a user with demand for understating premium design is now the 5S. There's a reason why the 5C hasn't a black color option.....
    I dont think so. They wildly overestimated the demand for the iPhone 5C, which indicates they do not understand their market.

    The iPhone is a Veblen Good , ie a luxury goods, such as high-end wines, jewelry, designer handbags, and luxury cars, that decreasing their prices decreases people's preference for buying them because they are no longer perceived as exclusive or high-status products.[2] Similarly, a price increase may increase that high status and perception of exclusivity, thereby making the good even more preferable.

    This is obviously within reason, but an obviously cheap iPhone will not convey the same message of status than an expensive iPhone.
    03-17-14 05:50 AM
  22. --TommesJay--'s Avatar
    I dont think so. They wildly overestimated the demand for the iPhone 5C, which indicates they do not understand their market.

    The iPhone is a Veblen Good , ie a luxury goods, such as high-end wines, jewelry, designer handbags, and luxury cars, that decreasing their prices decreases people's preference for buying them because they are no longer perceived as exclusive or high-status products.[2] Similarly, a price increase may increase that high status and perception of exclusivity, thereby making the good even more preferable.

    This is obviously within reason, but an obviously cheap iPhone will not convey the same message of status than an expensive iPhone.
    What I was trying to say is that the main purpose of the 5C was to converge people to rather getting the 5S instead of the 'middle option', the 5C. The 4S was "not worth the upgrade", people kept their iPhone 4 and even bought new iPhone 4 units. When the iPhone 5 came, the incentive still wasn't big enough and people kept their iPhone 4S units and bought new ones. 4 and 4S units made up over 50% of iPhone shipments when the 5 was on the market and ASPs went further down. Shareholders didn't like this development. So instead of keeping the iPhone 5 as the middle option which would be 'great enough' for many, they replaced it with a colorful teenie plastic option. And it panned out: ASPs went up again and the 5S was the best-selling device in of the lineup. That wouldn't have happened if people were still able to get an iPhone 5.
    03-17-14 06:35 AM
  23. sati01's Avatar
    I like Jakarta, but "under $200" is too expensive for growth markets. People will prefer a $100-$150 fully compatible Android device.
    03-17-14 07:19 AM
  24. Gesig Boek's Avatar
    What I was trying to say is that the main purpose of the 5C was to converge people to rather getting the 5S instead of the 'middle option', the 5C. The 4S was "not worth the upgrade", people kept their iPhone 4 and even bought new iPhone 4 units. When the iPhone 5 came, the incentive still wasn't big enough and people kept their iPhone 4S units and bought new ones. 4 and 4S units made up over 50% of iPhone shipments when the 5 was on the market and ASPs went further down. Shareholders didn't like this development. So instead of keeping the iPhone 5 as the middle option which would be 'great enough' for many, they replaced it with a colorful teenie plastic option. And it panned out: ASPs went up again and the 5S was the best-selling device in of the lineup. That wouldn't have happened if people were still able to get an iPhone 5.
    I would agree with you, as that is the way it worked out, but I think they also expected their market share to grow, as they had to cut production of the iPhone 5C multiple times. There are rumours of inventory build-up of the iPhone 5C, so things are obviously not going exactly as planned. So maybe yes, it did work out as planned, but maybe a bit too much, as they failed to grow their market share as anticipated.
    03-17-14 08:20 AM
  25. Gesig Boek's Avatar
    You don't know what your talking about. Apple cut production of the 5c by 25% and INCREASED production of the 5s by 75%
    Apple grew their marketshare last quarter.
    Their market share may be up from Q3 to Q4, as usual, but it is down between Q4 2012 and Q4 2013. They lost a whole 3% share and are growing a lot slower than the market.

    Apple is now rumoured to be ready to release an 8GB iPhone 5C, so it is a fallacy to believe they are not interested in the lower cost market and market share.

    The fact that they had to increase 5S and reduce 5C production tells you that is not exactly how they expected things to turn out.

    I think it is relatively clear they thought they could have their cake and eat it too - dominate the high end and also increase their market share in the mid-range. Unfortunately those buyers would rather buy a high end (more affordable) Samsung than a cheap looking iPhone.
    Last edited by Gesig Boek; 03-17-14 at 02:12 PM.
    03-17-14 01:58 PM
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