1. Pete The Penguin's Avatar
    Never is a very very long time and anything is possible until I sing.

    However, given BlackBerry's penchant for snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory, I don't know if it can take/hold onto number three position. But to discount them outright would be a bit blind. There is always the possibility that they will come up with two killer devices.
    There's also the possibility US carriers will actively support BlackBerry again.

    3 UK are throwing their support behind Windows Phone - http://www.trustedreviews.com/news/b...wly-says-three

    Carrier Support Is Evaporating - http://seekingalpha.com/article/1949...is-evaporating
    JeepBB likes this.
    03-15-14 08:08 AM
  2. cgk's Avatar
    For carriers to support an OS with zero share would likely require Chen to spend hundreds of millions on co-_funding marketing - little chance of that.

    sent from my bright red Nexus 5
    03-15-14 08:32 AM
  3. CHIP72's Avatar
    You also have to factor in product cycles. Towards the end of the cycle, sales naturally slow down, as people begin to wait for the newer models to be released.
    This is an important point. On Verizon Wireless for example, a flagship WP8 device was not released between May 2013 (Lumia 928) and March 2014 (Lumia Icon), and few WP8 devices were released on the carrier in the September-November 2013 time frame. Now VZW is only one carrier in country, but it is the largest carrier in the current biggest smartphone market in the world, so the lack of new WP devices on VZW by itself would probably lead to a decline in sales relative to Q3 2013.
    neo158 likes this.
    03-15-14 08:51 AM
  4. Pete The Penguin's Avatar
    This is an important point. On Verizon Wireless for example, a flagship WP8 device was not released between May 2013 (Lumia 928) and March 2014 (Lumia Icon), and few WP8 devices were released on the carrier in the September-November 2013 time frame. Now VZW is only one carrier in country, but it is the largest carrier in the current biggest smartphone market in the world, so the lack of new WP devices on VZW by itself would probably lead to a decline in sales relative to Q3 2013.
    And yet market share in the US for Windows Phone stayed at 3.2%...

    Care to explain why sales remained flat?
    03-15-14 09:00 AM
  5. D_Gui's Avatar
    This is an important point. On Verizon Wireless for example, a flagship WP8 device was not released between May 2013 (Lumia 928) and March 2014 (Lumia Icon), and few WP8 devices were released on the carrier in the September-November 2013 time frame. Now VZW is only one carrier in country, but it is the largest carrier in the current biggest smartphone market in the world, so the lack of new WP devices on VZW by itself would probably lead to a decline in sales relative to Q3 2013.
    US hasn't been the largest smartphone market in the world for a while now... https://www.google.co.za/url?sa=t&rc...2f0yPZJYCyQeDA
    03-15-14 09:06 AM
  6. CHIP72's Avatar
    And yet market share in the US for Windows Phone stayed at 3.2%...

    Care to explain why sales remained flat?
    Nope, I don't care to explain. What I will say is that it is odd that no flagship WP devices were released during or immediately prior to the biggest sales quarter of the year on the largest U.S. carrier. That's just a dumb strategy.
    03-15-14 09:21 AM
  7. CHIP72's Avatar
    US hasn't been the largest smartphone market in the world for a while now... https://www.google.co.za/url?sa=t&rc...2f0yPZJYCyQeDA
    OK, my bad on that one. Of course, it should be noted in the context of this thread (that Blackberry could move back to #3 in market share) that in that largest global smartphone market Blackberry mathematically has 0.0% market share.
    03-15-14 09:24 AM
  8. Pete The Penguin's Avatar
    Nope, I don't care to explain. What I will say is that it is odd that no flagship WP devices were released during or immediately prior to the biggest sales quarter of the year on the largest U.S. carrier. That's just a dumb strategy.
    Flagship or not, Windows Phone market share is holding steady in the US at 3.2%

    Yet BlackBerry's has declined. Mind you, where's the marketing? Oh, they don't have any... Silly me.
    JeepBB likes this.
    03-15-14 09:53 AM
  9. cgk's Avatar
    I see the Nokia X pre-order has hit one million in China alone - so it might not be WP that wipes out the low-end BBRY devices...
    JeepBB likes this.
    03-15-14 02:09 PM
  10. Ebuka Allison's Avatar
    I see the Nokia X pre-order has hit one million in China alone - so it might not be WP that wipes out the low-end BBRY devices...
    Fortunately for us Lumia fans, that's not quite what it seems Nokia’s 1 million Chinese Nokia X pre-orders highly questionable | WMPoweruser
    03-15-14 03:23 PM
  11. 12Danny123's Avatar
    Nope, I don't care to explain. What I will say is that it is odd that no flagship WP devices were released during or immediately prior to the biggest sales quarter of the year on the largest U.S. carrier. That's just a dumb strategy.
    Because of the fact that everybody is waiting for WP8.1. which is released in less than 20 days
    03-15-14 03:29 PM
  12. madman0141's Avatar
    Well then like everything else here someone is telling the truth and someone is a retail salesperson who thinks they are an analyst because they post things on twitter.
    03-15-14 03:41 PM
  13. richardat's Avatar
    For carriers to support an OS with zero share would likely require Chen to spend hundreds of millions on co-_funding marketing - little chance of that.

    sent from my bright red Nexus 5
    He would need even more money than a "new" company would because I feel carriers are likely unhappy with throwing big money and resources into bb10 launch, only to find incredibly poor sales, and bb not delivering the product they claimed (oh.... Huge app support this time... Oh everyone is IN!) And not putting their own efforts or money behind it but instead playing a shell game about sales, all the while quietly (then publicly) trying to sell themselves!

    Chen would need to apologize and make ammemds for that, then, beyond all business and tech sense, explain how a completely rejected -over a year old os , which has publicly and visibly failed will now somehow take off enough to be profitable enough for b them to take another risk on it. That doesn't happen in most tech paradigms, and in truth, if somehow bb hadn't known bb10 would flop( I think they knew it was very likely) , then within a couple months of kaunch , they would have known absolutely that there was no chance. If bb11 work hadn't begun by then, it was already late. Any other company would be working furiously on "bb11" by now with an aggressive timeline.

    Ugh.. There is just no way..? The obstacles are many, manyfold beyond what bb could surmount. Not Pursuing the mobile market isn't a choice by Chen... It simply isn't remotely an option. Even heins acknowledged that bb10 was the last chance, the hail Mary as I used to call it.

    Chen is doing about all he can, trying to find niches were they can at least survive and get some new business model as going.
    03-15-14 03:44 PM
  14. cgk's Avatar
    That is an excellent point - easier to be best big thing and have 'potential' than try to come back from being on the skids..

    sent from my bright red Nexus 5
    Poirots Progeny and richardat like this.
    03-15-14 03:45 PM
  15. Pete The Penguin's Avatar
    I see the Nokia X pre-order has hit one million in China alone - so it might not be WP that wipes out the low-end BBRY devices...
    Doesn't matter, MSFT will soon own Nokia.
    richardat likes this.
    03-15-14 05:21 PM
  16. chalx's Avatar
    I'm expecting that Nokia Android line of phones becomes real hit in "emerging markets", killing all other low end Android phones, not only from companies like Sagem and ZTE, but also LG and Samsung and in the same time introducing their own services to the broad public.
    03-15-14 06:27 PM
  17. neo158's Avatar
    I somehow get the impression that the OP hasn't got a clue what he's talking about. First, he's using what seems to be US sales figures to make it appear that Windows Phone is in decline, which it isn't its stayed flat. Second, WP is the only mobile OS that has shown YoY growth, 104% last year alone.

    In some regions WP has hit double figures growth wise, the US is the one exception and is the sole reason why WP was launched in the UK first!!
    cwalt2166, Laura Knotek and JeepBB like this.
    03-15-14 10:17 PM
  18. RyanGermann's Avatar
    Smartphone sales are in general decline: I have a friend who uses an iPhone 4 S! Yes, it's ALMOST 2 YEARS OLD oh my GOD I'm so sad for her.

    What I mean to say is "civilians" (i.e. not the mobile gadget freaks that frequent mobile gadget Websites) probably already have a pretty darn good device that works pretty darn well, and they haven't seen anything that is the orders-of-magnitude better than what they currently have to make them shell out $700 or sign up for another $80 per month contract.

    An iPhone the size of a Z30 might make a whole lot of iPhone users upgrade, but frankly, not since the "Retina Display" craze (that has now become pretty much a minimum for screens on even middle-tier devices) has there been a REALLY strong reason to upgrade (I say having upgraded my perfectly good Z10 to a Z30... but oh, yeah, I'm not a civilian, so I get a pass :-) )
    03-15-14 11:02 PM
  19. Nicholas Kathrein's Avatar
    How does the Nokia XL have better specs?? Have you even read the specifications?


    Judging on the fact that MS is getting Nokia's devices and services division. I'm pretty sure MS will kill the phone. But still support it
    They would have killed it then. You really think if MS said not to release it they still would have? Yes, MS doesn't own Nokia yet and legally can't tell them not to do something but there ways of saying no without saying it. MS is on board. If it doesn't sell then they kill it. If it sells well then it isn't going anywhere. MS is in a distant 3rd. They are realizing that they would be better off putting their services on all OS's then to limit everything to MS only platforms.
    richardat likes this.
    03-16-14 02:41 AM
  20. Nicholas Kathrein's Avatar
    Who cares? Every one of us who is bold enough to carry one of these amazing devices knows that we wield the finest communication and productivity tool available. You think I care what typical consumers think? Think again.

    But that's not my point. The market will eventually catch up. It typically takes 3-5 years between the time new technology becomes available and the time it becomes widely adopted. This was true for the iPhone, the original BlackBerry, the worldwide web, email, Facebook, cable TV, etc.

    BB10 is new technology, as those of us who have put it and its competitors to the test well know. Patience. By January 30, 2016, it will be clear that things are turning around in a big way. A year after that, Apple will be paying to license QNX for its mobile OS. Mark my words.
    Wow, what are you on? I want some!
    JeepBB and richardat like this.
    03-16-14 02:42 AM
  21. Nicholas Kathrein's Avatar
    WP may have more native apps from big devs, but it is clear that WP is LAST on their priority list and devs (more often than not) develop mediocre versions with missing features for WP. It seems like they develop versions with "just enough" functionality for them to say "we support WP". But the experience is often (read: usually) very lacking in features.

    Posted via CB10

    Ding Ding Ding. Your are 100 % correct. This is why Apple and Google already won. You could have the greatest phone OS. If you don't have easy access to all the apps your screwed. You can pay these people like MS to make a native app for your OS but after there paid why should they update a platform with little to no market share? There better off improving their apps for iOS and Android. Hell, there better off making really good tablet apps. I'm sure Android has more tablet users than either MS or BB have phone users. In the end those apps will not be updated anything like iOS or Android and everyone will know it.
    Last edited by Nicholas Kathrein; 03-16-14 at 03:15 AM.
    03-16-14 02:50 AM
  22. alicepattinson's Avatar
    Maybe because Windows doesnt have enough games and apps like Android and Apple. The Windows phone is a great device but lack of apps. IMO
    Nicholas Kathrein likes this.
    03-16-14 02:57 AM
  23. Nicholas Kathrein's Avatar
    BlackBerry has a new ceo and everyone is waiting for him to pull a rabbit out of the hat to save BB.

    Microsoft has a newer CEO, with even shorter time at the post, of which everyone is awaiting the rabbit trick.

    Nokia, "may" also get a new ceo to help swing things:
    After Microsoft's Satya Nadella, Nokia may give charge to Indian-origin Rajeev Suri as CEO | Latest News & Updates at Daily News & Analysis

    Who will out perform, is the question.

    Posted via CB10
    All true but Microsoft has 80 Billion in cash reserves. Not that the company is worth 80 billion. They have CASH of 80 Billion. Now your telling me that a company around 26 times the money (cash) on hand has anything to worry about. MS could give these phones away for cost and still have more than 80 Billion in the bank. There still making money on their enterprise products. I'm sorry but BB with around 3 Billion in the bank is like an ant to MS. MS could look in their seat cushions in the executive wing to buy BB if they wanted.

    http://usfinancepost.com/why-microso...ash-12172.html
    03-16-14 03:05 AM
  24. dolco's Avatar
    I somehow get the impression that the OP hasn't got a clue what he's talking about. First, he's using what seems to be US sales figures to make it appear that Windows Phone is in decline, which it isn't its stayed flat. Second, WP is the only mobile OS that has shown YoY growth, 104% last year alone.

    In some regions WP has hit double figures growth wise, the US is the one exception and is the sole reason why WP was launched in the UK first!!
    At least two wrong statements:
    -WP sales didn't decline nor stayed flat in US. Market share of WP stayed flat (3.1%) in US and because all market grew in US it means that absolute sales grew too. Without new models and without WP8.1 not bad result.
    -Nokia every time launched new high end models in US. BB has strategy to launch in UK and Canada first.
    Last edited by dolco; 03-16-14 at 07:04 AM.
    03-16-14 03:52 AM
  25. sati01's Avatar
    Ding Ding Ding. Your are 100 % correct. This is why Apple and Google already won. You could have the greatest phone OS. If you don't have easy access to all the apps your screwed. You can pay these people like MS to make a native app for your OS but after there paid why should they update a platform with little to no market share? There better off improving their apps for iOS and Android. Hell, there better off making really good tablet apps. I'm sure Android has more tablet users than either MS or BB have phone users. In the end those apps will not be updated anything like iOS or Android and everyone will know it.
    Ms is unifying their app model for desktop, Xbox, tablet and phone. They could have a mass of 500 million devices by the end of the year.

    Ms is working in cross platform development tools, a new game platform, and I think they are going to buy Xamarin, a product that allows you to develop for IOS and Android with Windows devs tools.

    There are rumors that Windows will support Android apps in windows 9.

    So they have a chance to close the app gap.

    By the way, the 1 million pre orders of the Nokia X was BS, a fraud of Nokia. So, WP's life is not in danger.
    dolco and Kashan Osama like this.
    03-16-14 05:35 AM
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