1. notnomde's Avatar
    Source : Why RIM Stands a Chance with BlackBerry 10

    Why RIM Stands a Chance with BlackBerry 10

    Oct. 25, 2012, 9:20 a.m.
    Aapo Markkanen Senior Analyst, Devices, Applications and Content

    I attended my latest demo for BlackBerry 10 this week, and I remain [client access only] impressed by the platform’s features and general look. The highlights include a seemingly smart, learning (Swype-style) keyboard, a compelling and very HTML5-ready browser, the ability to sandbox the device’s personal and professional uses into BYOD-friendly and easily changeable identity modes, as well as a whole new approach to multi-tasking. I also remain equally concerned by its main problem – the fact that it’s not ready, being now scheduled for Q1 2013. But all in all, the bits I like in BB10 are enough to make me give RIM the benefit of doubt and assume that the platform could make an impact upon its release.

    As far as I see it, BB10’s biggest selling point will indeed be in multi-tasking, because that is an area it does seem to handle remarkably well, and one that all existing mobile OSes handle remarkably poorly. In BB10’s “Flow” concept there can be up to eight different applications open simultaneously and at least during the demos I have seen the transitions between them happen quite smoothly. I can give my final verdict of course only when the actual products are out and available, but what I’ve seen so far has made me inclined to believe that RIM may not necessarily be playing only catch-up here. Instead it is offering something that is fresh and innovative enough to become a credible alternative.

    It isn’t the most complicated of dynamics, after all. If you identify something important that the incumbents do badly, you stand a decent chance to shake them up. And that chance is even better if the said incumbents are becoming too complacent and risk-averse to reinvent themselves.

    And believe me, mobile OSes could do with a modest dose of re-invention. For instance, the most laughable comment I’ve heard being used to defend the heavily incremental nature of the iPhone 5 has been that Apple didn’t want to reform the iPhone any further because it has already “reached perfection” and all “changes for change’s sake” would only make it worse. I don’t buy such blatant apologism one single bit. It's not the end of history, and there is no last man.

    If you can’t think of anything that could improve the iPhone then my own unscientific assessment is that you’re displaying severe lack of imagination or extraordinary (and yes, here comes the F-word) fanboy-style patience. The hardware may still be very state-of-art, but when it comes to iOS 6 then in my books there’s no denying that Apple is stagnating. If it won’t start revamping its OS within the next year or so it will be dangerously exposed to bolder rivals, which by that time could well include RIM.
    10-26-12 01:50 AM
  2. Dapper37's Avatar
    This is a potential outcome that people just can't accept right now.
    PJD642 likes this.
    10-26-12 08:49 AM
  3. cgk's Avatar
    All of this was said about WebOS - there is still no evidence that consumers care about or ascribe any value to "true Multi-tasking".
    10-26-12 08:57 AM
  4. njblackberry's Avatar
    Others can't accept that the brand is so heavily damaged now that all of the "flow" and innovation may not matter if no one wants to buy the product.
    10-26-12 09:00 AM
  5. Roo Zilla's Avatar
    All of this was said about WebOS - there is still no evidence that consumers care about or ascribe any value to "true Multi-tasking".
    Don't even need to go that far back. If "true multi-tasking" really was such a game changer, the Playbook would be the best selling tablet in the market.... Alas, that's not the case.

    Multi-tasking is one of those features that is very important to a very small number of people. The vast majority either doesn't care about it, or know what it is.
    10-26-12 09:32 AM
  6. RubberChicken76's Avatar
    Others can't accept that the brand is so heavily damaged now that all of the "flow" and innovation may not matter if no one wants to buy the product.
    I don't understand why it's "all" or "nothing" in some people's eyes. I really don't.

    If "no one" wanted to buy a BlackBerry, RIM wouldn't be selling millions of them each quarter still. If "no one liked their BlackBerry anymore", there would be "zero in use", not "80 million". This forum would have no users. Etc.

    While it would be nice to see RIM defeat Google and Apple, do they need to do that in order to 'survive'? I don't think so. Remember ... before the iPhone arrived and they were "king" in the eyes of the world, they only had 10 million users. They have 8X that many now. RIM is a company that grew extremely quickly and got fat extremely quickly. I don't want people to lose jobs, but they could restructure their costs/focus accordingly.

    BlackBerry 10 can do well enough just on the basis of:

    - Getting a good upgrade rate from BlackBerry OS customers (of which, there are 80 million)
    - get some decent conversions from Nokia customers (which are ample in number still where RIM is growing)
    - continue mining the feature phone->Smartphone migrations (which is growing the whole market of smartphones)

    The trick for RIM is that they release a good product (not potentially good, actually good), market it intelligently (in english, focus on the above, not trying to get iPhone users to switch), get the key apps people want and figure out how to turn the tide in opinion with a media that loves "RIM's gonna die ... here are some true facts, mixed it with made up stuff and without other facts" stories.
    kbz1960 and Prince_Poppycock like this.
    10-26-12 09:46 AM
  7. cgk's Avatar
    If "no one" wanted to buy a BlackBerry, RIM wouldn't be selling millions of them each quarter still. If "no one liked their BlackBerry anymore", there would be "zero in use", not "80 million". This forum would have no users. Etc.
    Ah but that's the rub - RIM can currently sell a high volume of phones that largely consist of low-end phones sold at cost on pre-payment payments for consumers in emerging markets or have low level of disposable income in first world markets - is that going to translate into an ability to sell high margin devices on high level contract plans ?

    (I don't have an answer - just pointing out that there are specific things about BB07 that make it successful that do not apply to BB10).
    10-26-12 09:54 AM
  8. cgk's Avatar
    Don't even need to go that far back. If "true multi-tasking" really was such a game changer, the Playbook would be the best selling tablet in the market.... Alas, that's not the case.

    Multi-tasking is one of those features that is very important to a very small number of people. The vast majority either doesn't care about it, or know what it is.

    I'm not even convinced about this myself but I think there is one possible exception to this - the ability to run down apps side by side - so a word document and a PDF so that you can read the PDF and edit the word document at the same time - now Surface has the ability to do this (and starting to appear on Android in various forms) - that might appeal because it is easy to understand and the use cases are easy to understand.

    Again it might appeal and I'm not convinced myself but it could be a bit of a dark horse for Windows.
    10-26-12 10:00 AM
  9. Roo Zilla's Avatar
    I'm not even convinced about this myself but I think there is one possible exception to this - the ability to run down apps side by side - so a word document and a PDF so that you can read the PDF and edit the word document at the same time - now Surface has the ability to do this (and starting to appear on Android in various forms) - that might appeal because it is easy to understand and the use cases are easy to understand.

    Again it might appeal and I'm not convinced myself but it could be a bit of a dark horse for Windows.
    I'm not convinced myself. This is one of those cases where a user wants to use their tablet as a notebook replacement. Basically the sales pitch is, "yes, it's not as good as doing it on a notebook, but at least you can do it." The lure of the tablet isn't so much doing word processing or spreadsheets. Those were the killer apps of a generation ago on desktop PCs. About 10-15 years ago, it was the internet on notebooks. Today, it's media consumption and portable gaming on tablets and smartphones.
    10-26-12 10:12 AM
  10. njblackberry's Avatar
    My feeling on using a tablet as a replacement for a notebook is to use a Windows based tablet. That's why I am waiting for the Surface Pro. A tablet with enough horsepower to run my Windows apps, which is what I really need. And I can consume all the media I need. Why would I buy a PlayBook or an iPad if I can have a Windows based tablet.

    Assuming, of course, the Microsoft doesn't screw it up. Which is always a possibility. And yes, I know how different Windows 8 is. I miss the Start button but have adapted.

    That's another part of the tablet dynamic...
    10-26-12 10:15 AM
  11. Roo Zilla's Avatar
    My feeling on using a tablet as a replacement for a notebook is to use a Windows based tablet. That's why I am waiting for the Surface Pro. A tablet with enough horsepower to run my Windows apps, which is what I really need. And I can consume all the media I need. Why would I buy a PlayBook or an iPad if I can have a Windows based tablet.

    Assuming, of course, the Microsoft doesn't screw it up. Which is always a possibility. And yes, I know how different Windows 8 is. I miss the Start button but have adapted.

    That's another part of the tablet dynamic...
    There is potentially a significant market for a "notebook replacement" in the form of a tablet running a full blown desktop OS on non-Atom Intel CPUs. It then basically becomes an ultra-ultrabook. I can see the potential for success of such a device. The single largest problem I see to Surface Pro gaining wide adoption is price. The same thing that's slowing ultrabook adoption. Assuming that Surface Pro will be priced either similarly or greater than the current crop of ultrabooks, it might just be too expensive to gain much momentum. For many, it's tough to justify buying a $1000 notebook, no matter how thin and light it is, because a suitable replacement can be had for less than half that.

    EDIT: Potentially, a few years down the line, economies of scale for Surface Pro type devices could drop prices far enough that it becomes price competitive with regular notebooks (although Intel's business model might need some retooling at that juncture). At that point, it's quite possible that these ultra-ultrabooks will replace what we now call notebooks. Around the same time, what we now consider to be "tablets" would probably take on a different form.
    10-26-12 10:24 AM
  12. Seijuro's Avatar
    My feeling on using a tablet as a replacement for a notebook is to use a Windows based tablet. That's why I am waiting for the Surface Pro. A tablet with enough horsepower to run my Windows apps, which is what I really need. And I can consume all the media I need. Why would I buy a PlayBook or an iPad if I can have a Windows based tablet.

    Assuming, of course, the Microsoft doesn't screw it up. Which is always a possibility. And yes, I know how different Windows 8 is. I miss the Start button but have adapted.

    That's another part of the tablet dynamic...

    i just had to do it, it was now or never !
    10-26-12 10:26 AM
  13. nyplaya610's Avatar
    All of this was said about WebOS - there is still no evidence that consumers care about or ascribe any value to "true Multi-tasking".
    yes this was said by WebOS but WebOS never had the popularity RIM once had. I know a lot of people that love blackberry but dont want to deal with not having apps so they got an iPhone/android
    10-26-12 10:50 AM
  14. Roo Zilla's Avatar
    yes this was said by WebOS but WebOS never had the popularity RIM once had. I know a lot of people that love blackberry but dont want to deal with not having apps so they got an iPhone/android
    You're comparing apples to oranges. What you should compare is Palm to RIM and WebOS to BB10.
    10-26-12 11:18 AM
  15. moegumby's Avatar
    yes this was said by WebOS but WebOS never had the popularity RIM once had. I know a lot of people that love blackberry but dont want to deal with not having apps so they got an iPhone/android
    Well said, it's the apps that make or break a platform. You can have the coolest most advanced platform ever, but with out the interactive cross platform apps (example: Words With friends) and other games that can be played with users of other platforms. Also very popular apps such as Flipboard, media apps such as Netflix and HBOGO. Numerous other IOS and Android apps. Trust me, consumers are not just looking at that cool new Phone with the neat new OS. They are asking, "what apps are available". The days of just pick a platform are over.

    Sent from my BlackBerry 9930
    10-26-12 11:23 AM
  16. BlackBerry Guy's Avatar
    I don't get the "all or nothing" bit either. Talking to some of my friends, they won't judge BB10 a success unless it recaptures the RIM's old position in the market. This isn't going to happen anytime soon.

    In my view, if BB10 can stem the bleeding to other platforms, solidify their current position, and have a slow but steady growth rate - that will be judged to be a success, at least in the short term.
    10-26-12 11:24 AM
  17. RubberChicken76's Avatar
    yes this was said by WebOS but WebOS never had the popularity RIM once had.
    Even now, with all of the bad press, RIM has 80 million customers. Even with said bad press, they shipped 7.6 million devices and sold through 10 million to end customers.

    To put it in perspective, in Palm's last quarterly reporting before acquisition, they wrote: "During the three months ended February 28, 2010, net smartphone units shipped were 960,000 units at an average selling price of $367 per unit.". RIM has more active users now than they've ever had. Even if shipments are slowing down, RIM has more popularity now in terms of market acceptance than WEB OS ever had!

    And I say this as someone who thinks WEBOS deserved its due.
    10-26-12 12:21 PM

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