[tinochiko]

Ok let's look at some more recent values:

According to more recent Facebook data (up to last year 2013), the growth rate is not increasing but has been the same year after year since 2010 so my average rate applied to Facebook user of ~100 million every 6 months still applies if you assume that WhatApp is experiencing the same growth (which I doubt since again Facebook is PC market AND MOBILE). See my tabulated excel graph and note my source:

Number of active users at Facebook over the years

Attachment 260933

If I use Mr. tinochiko posted graph.. it also shows constant growth.. not increasing:

Attachment 260935

So again, still finding WhatsApp number hard to believe...... hopefully I'm making myself very clear why I'm not buying it...

For my graph is consistent (well only from where you've started) because looking at the years that's forecasted growth not actual, if you look at the actual (before your red line) then it's not at all consistent but increasing at a faster rate

TechCraze C0008DDD1

[lynxs_claw]

For my graph is consistent (well only from where you've started) because looking at the years that's forecasted growth not actual, if you look at the actual (before your red line) then it's not at all consistent but increasing at a faster rate

TechCraze C0008DDD1

Not sure what point you're trying to make here.

WhatsApp is not a new company. It's been around since 2009, and nothing new has really happened to them in the last six months except well, some articles about security leaks and the fact that they've been purchased by Facebook.

So based on that they're not going to be riding the "new company" acceleration growth curve with new mobile users but follow a growth trend similar to what's currently happening in mobile like the trend with Facebook (less than Facebook since it doesn't include any of the pc market).

Even if I use your smartphone data (after my red line) to 2013 in which the article was published.. the growth in mobile is constant - even the analysts at the time used the same growth trend to forecast.

So maybe we understand each other now.. or still no..

Posted via CB10

[lynxs_claw]

I hate to say it but I believe BlackBerry posted numbers way more than I believe WhatsApp's after doing my quick analysis for a sanity check..

Posted via CB10

[tinochiko]

Not sure what point you're trying to make here.

WhatsApp is not a new company. It's been around since 2009, and nothing new has really happened to them in the last six months except well, some articles about security leaks and the fact that they've been purchased by Facebook.

So based on that they're not going to be riding the "new company" acceleration growth curve with new mobile users but follow a growth trend similar to what's currently happening in mobile like the trend with Facebook (less than Facebook since it doesn't include any of the pc market).

Even if I use your smartphone data (after my red line) to 2013 in which the article was published.. the growth in mobile is constant - even the analysts at the time used the same growth trend to forecast.

So maybe we understand each other now.. or still no..

Posted via CB10

The data was produced in January 2013 meaning the bar for 2013 is forecasted, your line starts from the 2012 to the 2013 line and onwards (all forecasted) before this, the growth is not consistent, I'll try and find a more up to date non forecasted chart up to 2014 to compare..

It's not about things happening (necessarily) cetirus Paribas.... it could be just that whatsapp is approaching it's peak, it started it's growth stage of the business cycle where it experiences the fastest rates of production, that's when companies either let the service decline, or do something to boost growth, the fact that whatsapp also added the voice calls feature suggest that they were approaching peak growth and they want to keep it accelerating instead of its growth starting to decline..

I hope we understand each other better

TechCraze C0008DDD1

[bekkay]

Ok let's look at some more recent values:

According to more recent Facebook data (up to last year 2013), the growth rate is not increasing but has been the same year after year since 2010 so my average rate applied to Facebook user of ~100 million every 6 months still applies if you assume that WhatApp is experiencing the same growth (which I doubt since again Facebook is PC market AND MOBILE). See my tabulated excel graph and note my source:

Number of active users at Facebook over the years

Attachment 260933

If I use Mr. tinochiko posted graph.. it also shows constant growth.. not increasing:

Attachment 260935

So again, still finding WhatsApp number hard to believe...... hopefully I'm making myself very clear why I'm not buying it...

OK, now what is your estimate of the recent growth rates over the last few years? Now, what do you think the growth in overall smartphone market shipments (not just low end) has been in just one last year (from 2012 to 2013)? I have it at 42% based on Gartner's data.

Again, I am not saying the rapid market growth in recent years is the only reason. There may be other things at play (e.g. What'sApp reaching a critical mass necessary for self-sustained growth or some kind of misreporting). With all this said though, the additional 200 million users doesn't sound that unrealistic given how huge the market has become.

[tinochiko]

TechCraze C0008DDD1

Game Over

[Dave Bourque]

How many are actually active users? Are some of these messages spam bots ?

Z10STL100-3/10.2.1.2141

[bekkay]

I hate to say it but I believe BlackBerry posted numbers way more than I believe WhatsApp's after doing my quick analysis for a sanity check..

Did you also do a sanity check analysis on estimated sales numbers for the Q10 and Z10 when such were reported by BlackBerry? What about the app count?

I am just saying that BlackBerry reports can be as misleading.

[bekkay]

How many are actually active users? Are some of these messages spam bots ?

Z10STL100-3/10.2.1.2141

Possible, but the same argument can be used against BBM numbers.

[tinochiko]

Okay i think enough has been done to discredit the face value figures, still whatsapp is regarded as the dominant messaging application..

Will bbm on the desktop help?

What else can/should BlackBerry do to improve and maintain adoption levels? (yes removing the valid factor of 'just give them time') ?..

Apart from separating bbm groups ofcourse

TechCraze C0008DDD1

[Dave Bourque]

Okay i think enough has been done to discredit the face value figures, still whatsapp is regarded as the dominant messaging application..

Will bbm on the desktop help?

What else can/should BlackBerry do to improve and maintain adoption levels? (yes removing the valid factor of 'just give them time') ?..

Apart from separating bbm groups ofcourse

TechCraze C0008DDD1

You haven't convinced me as to why bbm groups should be separated.

Z10STL100-3/10.2.1.2141

[lynxs_claw]

Did you also do a sanity check analysis on estimated sales numbers for the Q10 and Z10 when such were reported by BlackBerry? What about the app count?

I am just saying that BlackBerry reports can be as misleading.

Wow now you're just reaching.. smh..

I'm saying that from the grow trends I've just reviewed and analysed.. (which is more that I can say for some that just take numbers at face value without question) BlackBerry seems more in line than WhatsApp exponential growth.

Believe whatever you want to believe..


Posted via CB10

[bekkay]

Okay i think enough has been done to discredit the face value figures, still whatsapp is regarded as the dominant messaging application..

Will bbm on the desktop help?

What else can/should BlackBerry do to improve and maintain adoption levels? (yes removing the valid factor of 'just give them time') ?..

Apart from separating bbm groups ofcourse

TechCraze C0008DDD1

I said cross-platform BBM was a flop way before the last user count numbers were actually reported.

The only thing that probably may help is disassociating the messaging app with the company, which has sustained so much reputational damage. E.g. being acquired by a more reputable company.

Making it more usable (more stable, less resource intensive, more consistent UI/UX, etc.) might help a little, but given how many alternatives there are, I doubt that would help much.

[Dave Bourque]

BB10 and cross-platform BBM made people talk about BlackBerry. Legacy never did.

Z10STL100-3/10.2.1.2141

[tinochiko]

You haven't convinced me as to why bbm groups should be separated.

Z10STL100-3/10.2.1.2141

I don't know what more I can say?

It's not realising it's full potential under bbm

Group discovery is too difficult, imagine if like the channels 'featured page' you had a 'public' bbm group feature page, and you could search for bbm groups much like you search for channels except it's for groups to join that interest you...

Owners could decide when to make the group private or it could just automatically disappear when limit is reached and reappear when someone gets deleted or comes out of the group.

This would make groups so much more used and interactive and be another way for people to find bbm contacts..

Yes arguably all this and more could be done to groups within bbm but with the bugs and the way it lags just when you start doing certain things already (for me and other people I've heard) it's better to be separate and be made to be more reliable and smooth

It's nice to have everything in one place but it's also messier that way


If you can cover everything groups can do in an elevator pitch, then it has enough to stand on its own, you need a really long elevator to cover everything bbm can do..

Groups gets missed out because of all the other things people do on bbm now, there'll still be multiperson chat, but groups is so much more than that..

TechCraze C0008DDD1

[tinochiko]

I said cross-platform BBM was a flop way before the last user count numbers were actually reported.

The only thing that probably may help is disassociating the messaging app with the company, which has sustained so much reputational damage. E.g. being acquired by a more reputable company.

Making it more usable (more stable, less resource intensive, more consistent UI/UX, etc.) might help a little, but given how many alternatives there are, I doubt that would help much.

I don't think disassociation is necessary, it would have to change the name etc I believe the BlackBerry brand is rebuildable and it's not because of the brand that people aren't using it, it's because BlackBerry hasn't convinced them why they should use it..

TechCraze C0008DDD1

[Dave Bourque]

So... just have it be more obvious ? don't need to make people download two to apps...

Z10STL100-3/10.2.1.2141

[tinochiko]

So... just have it be more obvious ? don't need to make people download two to apps...

Z10STL100-3/10.2.1.2141

You don't make people do anything.. that kind of mindset will turn people away from bbm, we shouldn't be forcing people to download bbm, they should be doing it out of choice, because they recognise it's beneficial to them, I'm saying bbm groups being separate will help people recognise how beneficial it can be to them, so many times I've wanted to discuss a TV show for example, I have to trawl the Web looking for a group, wait to be invited etc it's just not easy for the end user..

Separating it makes it more obvious and trust the, people will be willing to download it, + bbm, the apps can still work together and be linked (bbm toast 'download groups to get in on some great conversations' even linking with channel ' you've subscribed to a lot of music channels, check out this groups on music')

Within the bbm groups app 'invite a friend to this group'

And you'll not need to code separate mute for bbm and groups because groups is its own channel so the code will be easier to handle (novice perspective) and they could add finally ability to mute a group for certain amount of time..

The apps could even get downloaded together.. I think the benefits outweigh the costs..

TechCraze C0008DDD1

[anon(5828343)]

Yeah. You're right. No point in any other company ever making an effort to try and grab a piece of the IM market. Whatsapp has it locked up for all time.

Posted via CB10

Not at all but if BBRY is serious about BBM, it better MARKET the heck out of it because it is facing stiff competition from Whatsapp. But that is just the problem with BBRY, isn't it? They love to launch but then their fail to maintain any post-launch momentum by completely screwing up the marketing and awareness.

BBM can be the greatest messaging app available but if people know nothing about it or they aren't encouraged to download and continue using it, it's toast.

[Dave Bourque]

Not at all but if BBRY is serious about BBM, it better MARKET the heck out of it because it is facing stiff competition from Whatsapp. But that is just the problem with BBRY, isn't it? They love to launch but then their fail to maintain any post-launch momentum by completely screwing up the marketing and awareness.

BBM can be the greatest messaging app available but if people know nothing about it or they aren't encouraged to download and continue using it, it's toast.

That's the core problem for a lot of their issues to me....

Z10STL100-3/10.2.1.2141

[Rello]

Just make sure that when BBM Video launches cross platform, that it works well. This alone should help draw the app more attention

Posted via CB10

[anon(5828343)]

That's the core problem for a lot of their issues to me....

Sadly, that is basically it.

BBRY was the top dog before iPhone came around and became lazy, fat and complacent. BBRY basically felt that it could simply stand by and its Crackberry would maintain the addiction of users and continue to either retain its top spot or retain enough marketshare to command a price premium thus ensuring its profitability. For a while, that seemed to be the case.

The first generation iPhone was not great and while it had the makings of a stiff competitor, BBRY and their loyalists made fun of it and rightfully so. Because of that, a certain sense of invincibility set in and BBRY literally felt it could do no wrong. Fanboys kept cheering, the arrogance kept growing and it seemed like the music could never and would never end. Well, Apple made investments and improvements and, more importantly, learned a thing or two about marketing and sales. Before the brain trust in Waterloo could figure it out, marketshare was plummeting and panic and denial set in.

Fast forward to BB10 and again, BBRY may have built the bestest OS ever but the launch was botched, the first generation of BB10 was a complete joke and the executive and fanboy response was replete with denial, arrogance and a deafness to any feedback or criticism that didn't fit with the "BB10 is the super greatest ever OS ever made ever" that was repeated ad nauseum both by BBRY execs and their fanboys.

Then reality, poor sales and the truth all catch up to Heins and he and his team are shown the door. A new messiah is found in Chen...what is the missing piece throughout? MARKETING!!!

The buffoonery continues. Chen continues the blah, blah, blah but, unlike Heins, he actually is desperate for media attention and seeks it out. His flip floppery on the strategic direction which BBRY will be taking under his leadership is embarrassing and in a complete fit of ignorance and nostalgia, he seems to be saying that BBRY's future is in the past. His proudest achievement so far? Overruling his utterly incompetent marketing team and foisting the "Classic" brand on them.

A truly brutal situation for what was once one the world's greatest tech companies and innovators.

[Loc22]

Also to think people don't care if their messages actually go through is a bit of a stretch. The carriers don't guarantee it but sms was a lot more reliable than BBM last time I tried it...

Sent from my Galaxy Note 3 using Tapatalk

I have to disagree with you on this as BBM inform users if their messages are stuck & don't get through, for this they get a lot of flak for not being reliable. WhatsApp & SMS do not inform users that their messages do not get through & it is considered reliable.

How I got to know this is because I deleted my WhatsApp for a week & I keep getting calls from my friends & customers asking me why I didn't reply their WhatsApp. As I used to work together with all the telco's for SMS marketing they give me no guarantee that the sms's will ever get through.

This is why I say people don't care if their messages get through or not.

Posted via CB10

[TgeekB]

Sadly, that is basically it.

BBRY was the top dog before iPhone came around and became lazy, fat and complacent. BBRY basically felt that it could simply stand by and its Crackberry would maintain the addiction of users and continue to either retain its top spot or retain enough marketshare to command a price premium thus ensuring its profitability. For a while, that seemed to be the case.

The first generation iPhone was not great and while it had the makings of a stiff competitor, BBRY and their loyalists made fun of it and rightfully so. Because of that, a certain sense of invincibility set in and BBRY literally felt it could do no wrong. Fanboys kept cheering, the arrogance kept growing and it seemed like the music could never and would never end. Well, Apple made investments and improvements and, more importantly, learned a thing or two about marketing and sales. Before the brain trust in Waterloo could figure it out, marketshare was plummeting and panic and denial set in.

Fast forward to BB10 and again, BBRY may have built the bestest OS ever but the launch was botched, the first generation of BB10 was a complete joke and the executive and fanboy response was replete with denial, arrogance and a deafness to any feedback or criticism that didn't fit with the "BB10 is the super greatest ever OS ever made ever" that was repeated ad nauseum both by BBRY execs and their fanboys.

Then reality, poor sales and the truth all catch up to Heins and he and his team are shown the door. A new messiah is found in Chen...what is the missing piece throughout? MARKETING!!!

The buffoonery continues. Chen continues the blah, blah, blah but, unlike Heins, he actually is desperate for media attention and seeks it out. His flip floppery on the strategic direction which BBRY will be taking under his leadership is embarrassing and in a complete fit of ignorance and nostalgia, he seems to be saying that BBRY's future is in the past. His proudest achievement so far? Overruling his utterly incompetent marketing team and foisting the "Classic" brand on them.

A truly brutal situation for what was once one the world's greatest tech companies and innovators.

The truth hurts and I totally agree with you. Thus the extremely difficult road they find themselves on.

BTW, this is not pessimism.

Posted via my Nexus 10.

[badiyee]

The truth hurts and I totally agree with you. Thus the extremely difficult road they find themselves on.

BTW, this is not pessimism.

Posted via my Nexus 10.

How can marketting solve BlackBerry's problems?

Question, how much do you think BlackBerry can spend on marketing via traditional visual media?