[Knightcrawler]

With all this talk about a third ecosystem, and with verizon opting for wp7 as its choice for the coveted position, i have to ask; what reasoning is there to make 3 the cut off point?

Why are we only allowed to have 3 ecosystems with no room for a fourth (whether its blackberry or not)? And i dont want opinions, but something more solid to support the argument that only 3 ecosystems can survive.

Do carriers have a policy to only support 3 different ecosystems? Is there some study that shows the human brain is incapable to handling more then 3 types of mobile operating systems? Will a fourth system trigger a cataclysmic sh!t storm of radio waves that will vaporize our grey matter and leave us ripe for the picking by aliens?


I'm more then happy to have a much choice as possible when it comes to the future of mobile technology. Even if RIM were to die tomorrow (knock on wood) i would be in support of a new os other then ios/driod/wp7.

So lets hear it, what do you all have against the number 4? What (actual) reasons are there for a 4th ecosystem not being able to survive?

Edit: I just realized i put this in the news&rumors forum instead of general discussion. Maybe one of the mods can move it? if they deem it necessary.

[ccbs]

Given choice, everyone wants to be the first or second rather than be the third. In this market, there are limited resources that can be distributed among the players. It comes down to the following:
1. marketing support from carriers
2. Apps and devs support
3. branding and customer recognition
4. revenue and profit share to support continued investment

I don't against having a number 4 players but let's face it, it will be a difficult position for anyone. Anyway, market will eventually figure it out, be it 3 players or 4 players.

[anthogag]

The magic number 3 is baloney. They just don't have more...that's all

RIM is in transition. That means it's not an ecosystem yet in their eyes.

As Thorsten said, Germany has 5 major car brands that are all successful

In North America, how many car brands are selling in this market...3 domestics...the 5 Germans...the Japanese, the Koreans, the Italians, the British, the French, the Swedes...

[Knightcrawler]

yup, thats exactly my point. It may be exxtra cost for carriers or something, but consumers drive the tech market, and thier profits.....and consumers have no problems with having 4 ecosystems to choose from.

Even as far as carriers are concerned, the size of the pie remains the same. Infact it increases over time as more feature phone users join the smartphone market. The only thing that changes is the flavor of the various slices of pie. So it shouldn't hurt their profit margins, since verizon or at&t will still make money whether i choose an iphone, a driod or bb10, as long as im on their network.

[qbnkelt]

This is a well known and proven concept in Economics. Basically it states that there always three major competitors in any free market within any one industry.
Bruce Henderson, Jagdish Sheth and Rajendra Sisodia all tested the theory and proved it, through performsnce and market share analysis.
In established markets, there are almost universally three major competitors. The rest of the field can be simply dismissed as "also rans."
Might not like it, but it exists.

[hootyhoo]

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_of_three_(economics)

[Mystic205]

given the current state of RIM you could have a fair debate as to whether BB currently IS an ecosystem or not.. we are on legacy platforms, with an obsolescent o.s., and our app selection is not likely to instrumentally increase... So a top level executive view that placed BB as a platform and "ecosystem" as being in limbo, pending the arrival of BB10 & associated devices would be fair and reasonable.

None of the carriers is selling many BBs, those are the facts here in the USA, and with nothing to shout about, advertise or sell, its better for an executive simply not to mention BB at this point in time.

Now, think ahead!.. With a successful launch of BB10, apps zooming into place due to the efficiency and atractiveness of cascades, good media coverage, strong reviews and healthy sales, I would expect, by years end, for the same guy to say the same thing, and to proudly announce the 4th ecosystem to be supported by VZ.

If the device and os is as good as is intended he wont have a choice.., after all at the end of the day, its the customers desires that drives the device selection at carriers.

[FlashFlare11]

given the current state of RIM you could have a fair debate as to whether BB currently IS an ecosystem or not.. we are on legacy platforms, with an obsolescent o.s., and our app selection is not likely to instrumentally increase... So a top level executive view that placed BB as a platform and "ecosystem" as being in limbo, pending the arrival of BB10 & associated devices would be fair and reasonable.

None of the carriers is selling many BBs, those are the facts here in the USA, and with nothing to shout about, advertise or sell, its better for an executive simply not to mention BB at this point in time.

Now, think ahead!.. With a successful launch of BB10, apps zooming into place due to the efficiency and atractiveness of cascades, good media coverage, strong reviews and healthy sales, I would expect, by years end, for the same guy to say the same thing, and to proudly announce the 4th ecosystem to be supported by VZ.

If the device and os is as good as is intended he wont have a choice.., after all at the end of the day, its the customers desires that drives the device selection at carriers.

This is a great post!

The only difference between RIM and Microsoft right now is that MSFT has proposed an aggressive plan to bring more consumers to Windows platform and has new hardware to show for it. RIM hasn't done this yet, so it would look foolish on Verizon's part to bank on something they haven't seen yet. I mean, I'm sure Verizon techs have seen and used BB10 prototypes, but they're probably not allowed to speak about them, at least, not before RIM does.

I don't think Verizon is snubbing RIM, but needs to pursue what they see as good business. I'm sure Verizon will change its views when they see a finished BB10 device and RIM's plan to fend off Microsoft as well as takeback marketshare from Apple and Google.

[playbookster]

There are only 3 car makers
Only 3 tv makers
Only 3 computer makers
Only 3 clothing brands

etc. The rule of 3 does not exist in most of our lives.

[anthogag]

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_of_three_(economics)

In this link to a Wikipedia article words like "mature market", "rule of thumb", and "usually" are used

"3 generalists in a mature market"...Verizon is 'choosing' WP7/8, not the market

Is the smartphone market mature

[BlackBerry Guy]

Verizon can argue that they've already given BlackBerry their push...with the Storm. Due to their relative lack of success with that, they moved on to put their marketing muscle behind Android, which has work out well. iOS gets plenty of advertising from Apple, and pretty much sells itself. Windows Phone really is the last platform they haven't done much with.

Even if we wanted Verizon to push RIM, there's not much for them to get behind at the present moment. The smartphone ecosystem is pretty much the same as it was back in the Storm days...still the same basic OS that's been face lifted a few times. We all know BB10 is the future, so no point wasting money promoting something that's on death row. I'm guessing when BB10 drops, they will adopt a wait and see approach and figure things out from there as far as getting behind RIM.

[addicted44]

Simple answer is that 3 is 1 greater than 2.

There are currently 2 mobile platforms. That is why Verizon mentions wanting 3, which is one more than the status quo. Once they have established 3, if BB10 looks viable, they will want to expand to 4.

[qbnkelt]

There are only 3 car makers
Only 3 tv makers
Only 3 computer makers
Only 3 clothing brands

etc. The rule of 3 does not exist in most of our lives.

I do not live my life through Calculus formulas, but I would be quite blind if I claimed it did not exist.

[kraski]

Whether there is always a "big 3" in a mature market or not, there's another good reason to have three or more. Avoiding scrutiny from government regulators. If it were just AT&T and Verizon or Apple and Google, you can be sure that the government would take a hard look at how they handle divvying up the market and how they control pricing. Not because the government folks are good guys. It hits their wallet, too. And it gives them something to show off as having done something for the voters.