1. THBW's Avatar
    From the Mortley Fool.

    Jefferies’ analyst Peter Misek and his $19.50 target is clearly bullish on Blackberry (TSX:BB,NASDAQ:BBRY). Some figures released this morning might just help to get the stock on track to reaching that level.

    This morning’s blurb indicates that according to Jefferies’ channel checks, the new Blackberry Z10 is selling just as well at Verizon outlets as it is AT&T. These checks indicate approximately 200,000 Z10 units have been sold since the product launched at Verizon on March 28th.

    200,000 unit sales in a week or so sounds rather modest and is probably a figure that Apple’s management doesn’t even think exists. “They meant 200 million units, right?” However, it at least indicates some degree of interest in the U.S. consumer market for Blackberry’s new product. Any indication of sales exceeding the market’s seemingly low expectations for the Z10 is sure to light a fire under this stock.

    In addition, it’s important to keep in mind that the retail consumer is not necessarily Blackberry’s bread and butter in the U.S. More telling will be the traction the Z10 is having with the corporate world.

    In the grand scheme of things, the Jefferies’ channel check is likely to amount to nothing more than noise, but if Blackberry’s stock opens the day in the green, this report is a likely cause.



    Peter Misek numbers are quite interesting. If his channel checks are correct (as they were in England and Canada unlike that twit from Canaccord) we can assume, given that the Z10 is sold by AT&T, T-mobile, Wal-Mart and Best Buy that BB is probably selling 400-500K units per week. This number is positive in three aspects. First, it means that BB is likely to sell closer to 30 million Z10s in their fiscal year. Given that the break even point is around 12-14 million units, this is good news. Second, solid sales numbers will expedite the 3rd party App support and it will also give BB cash to fund product development and launches (hello Q10). Third, they have a psychological effort on marketing and consumer sentiment. Things are looking up but there is still work to do.
    04-04-13 06:21 PM
  2. Easy-G's Avatar
    400-500K per week would be amazing, but I don't think it would be a consistent sell-through rate for the year - BlackBerry diehards are sure to boost sales in the initial week or so. Hopefully we see the effects of the increased marketing budget ramping up so that the Z10 and Q10 make it into the hands and minds of mainstream consumers.
    a1s2d3f4g5 likes this.
    04-04-13 06:43 PM
  3. Bbnivende's Avatar
    How does THBW arrive at 30 million Z10's per year ? That seems very unrealistic to me.
    04-04-13 06:44 PM
  4. FSeverino's Avatar
    How does THBW arrive at 30 million Z10's per year ? That seems very unrealistic to me.
    200 000 x 52 = 10.4 Million for Verizon x 2 for other US carriers = 20.8 Million US SALES ALONE.
    Adding 10 million for the rest of the world is pretty low.

    YES, this math is horribly flawed... but i would say that this is what the used.

    sure there are 400 000 sales NOW. but it just released.

    Also, I would be cautious of people just being dumb at saying 30 million Z10s when they mean BB10 devices, which includes Q10.

    I think 30 million INCLUDING Q10 is very reasonable considering that 400 000 Z10s were sold launch week in the states and everyone is waiting for Q10 apparently. With even an additional 50% of Q10 sales that will be 600 000 first week. meaning 1 million for the first week of both phones for launch. that is 1 of 30 million in 1 of 52 weeks, for ONE country. based on that alone 30 million for both devices seems reasonable IF NUMBERS STAY SOMEWHAT steady.
    a1s2d3f4g5, G-bone and Vorkosigan like this.
    04-04-13 07:00 PM
  5. rickkel's Avatar
    I was in the University Town Center mall in San Diego at lunch today getting Armor Guard on my Z10 and saw one of the guys at the Verizon (non-corporate) kiosk next door had a Z10 too. He seemed very stoked about the phone. I'm encouraged by that because people will see the phone and ask questions. They had a dummy Z10 (all their phones were dummies), small Z10 brochures and a few small Z10 posters at the kiosk. It definitely was their featured phone.
    dietertong, G-bone, Snap51 and 1 others like this.
    04-04-13 07:20 PM
  6. GTiLeo's Avatar
    ot bad for two days being holidays and even better since BB is apparently dead in the USA
    G-bone likes this.
    04-04-13 07:42 PM
  7. Bbnivende's Avatar
    From what I have read the USA market is about 50 million units a year. For BB to go from almost no USA market to 20 million units sold is unrealistic. Forget the numbers ... what is the market share of total sales we should expect after the Q10 comes out ? A better comparable is whether in a quarter where they have both the Q10 and Z10, they can outsell Nokia or LG or HTC. Basically all the other phone manufacturers are going for the market left over after Apple and Samsung have eaten first.

    I think they can be competitive, but no way will they be close to Samsung or Apple in the USA market for 2013.
    s0be, schmeat and lipper2000 like this.
    04-04-13 08:44 PM
  8. travaz's Avatar
    I think its a very good number. There has been no big advertising yet. If they start hard marketing that number could go up per week. Those figures are hard core CrackBerrians. When the general consumer see how good the Z10 is, it could take off nicely.
    04-04-13 08:51 PM
  9. lipper2000's Avatar
    From what I have read the USA market is about 50 million units a year. For BB to go from almost no USA market to 20 million units sold is unrealistic. Forget the numbers ... what is the market share of total sales we should expect after the Q10 comes out ? A better comparable is whether in a quarter where they have both the Q10 and Z10, they can outsell Nokia or LG or HTC. Basically all the other phone manufacturers are going for the market left over after Apple and Samsung have eaten first.

    I think they can be competitive, but no way will they be close to Samsung or Apple in the USA market for 2013.
    I think one has to expect BB will sell more previous gen devices in the USA for the majority of 2013 unless they price the Q10 super low (which they should but likely cannot afford to).
    I think if BB can push 2-3 million BB10s (Z10 and Q10) on average per quarter they will be doing very well...I think in all likelihood they will have to rely on corporate purchases for the year which is very hard to judge...if we were strictly talking consumer purchases they will be lucky to get more than a few hundred thousand / quarter at each mobile company
    04-04-13 08:52 PM
  10. lipper2000's Avatar
    I think its a very good number. There has been no big advertising yet. If they start hard marketing that number could go up per week. Those figures are hard core CrackBerrians. When the general consumer see how good the Z10 is, it could take off nicely.
    They likely will not be able to do much on the advertising side....normally you put out a ton of ads right at the lead up to launching in a market, which they did not really do...they have to conserve their spending or their share price will tank quick
    04-04-13 08:54 PM
  11. superdirt's Avatar
    The article says that 200k units were sold since March 28, not that Verizon sold 200k.

    Posted via CB10
    04-04-13 09:04 PM
  12. Harley Kid's Avatar
    @superdirt "These checks indicate approximately 200,000 Z10 units have been sold since the product launched at Verizon on March 28th" That was how Iread the last sentence of the second paragraph. And if released on the 28th (31 days in March) and today is the fouth of April ... that should equal a week (seven days) too!
    04-04-13 09:38 PM
  13. THBW's Avatar
    R
    I think one has to expect BB will sell more previous gen devices in the USA for the majority of 2013 unless they price the Q10 super low (which they should but likely cannot afford to).
    I think if BB can push 2-3 million BB10s (Z10 and Q10) on average per quarter they will be doing very well...I think in all likelihood they will have to rely on corporate purchases for the year which is very hard to judge...if we were strictly talking consumer purchases they will be lucky to get more than a few hundred thousand / quarter at each mobile company
    It is not unrealistic for BB to sell up 30 million units in their fiscal year. Analysts have pegged sales from a low of 14-16 million to a high of 28 million. Frankly, it is illogical to say that BB will sell 2-3 million units per quarter unless of course you think that BB will go belly up. They are already well beyond this bench mark. BB is apparently manufacturing 2.5. Million units per month so just multiply by 12 and this sort of gives you an upper end for fiscal 2014. 1 million US sales per month is certainly achievable given that there are 20,000 US store fronts plus on line retailers and corporate marketers selling the Z10. Mix US sales (currently only 20 percent of BB revenue) with world wide sales and 30 million units doesn't come across as a stretch.
    nickthebold likes this.
    04-04-13 10:41 PM
  14. G-bone's Avatar
    We shall see what we shall see...but I'm betting on being back in the black...
    We ain't done - we've barely got started!!


    #BB10Believe
    04-05-13 02:46 AM
  15. world traveler and former ceo's Avatar
    this coming quarter for Blackberry is going to be awesome! … and the iconic Q .. the Q10 releases in less than three weeks!!! ...
    04-05-13 06:42 AM
  16. Skeevecr's Avatar
    400-500K per week would be amazing, but I don't think it would be a consistent sell-through rate for the year - BlackBerry diehards are sure to boost sales in the initial week or so. Hopefully we see the effects of the increased marketing budget ramping up so that the Z10 and Q10 make it into the hands and minds of mainstream consumers.
    While the numbers will be boosted by diehards at the start, unless you think that word of mouth would be negative, all those sales are going to help drive further sales so we shouldn't see a big drop-off after launch, especially since they will have further devices launching through the quarters.
    04-05-13 06:44 AM
  17. JasW's Avatar
    I think its a very good number. There has been no big advertising yet. If they start hard marketing that number could go up per week. Those figures are hard core CrackBerrians. When the general consumer see how good the Z10 is, it could take off nicely.
    Doubtful, frankly. The "general consumer" is about to be hit in less than three weeks with the highly anticipated release of the S4 backed by the Samsung marketing machine. On top of that, the HTC One will be available in stores just a week or so before that. Even without the marketing advantage of Samsung (HTC's marketing is horrible, BTW), the general consumer will clearly opt for these phones first before picking up a device that, despite its freshness, doesn't have all of the apps he or she wants.

    The sales trend of the Z10 in Europe has slumped. So I don't see Z10 sales somehow taking off or maintaining the rate the OP predicts.
    04-05-13 06:56 AM
  18. Bbnivende's Avatar
    While the numbers will be boosted by diehards at the start, unless you think that word of mouth would be negative, all those sales are going to help drive further sales so we shouldn't see a big drop-off after launch, especially since they will have further devices launching through the quarters.
    In the USA particularly BB has such a low profile that word of mouth will not make a difference. An interesting book on the power of word of mouth is Malcolm Gladwell's "The Tipping Point". In places like UK and Canada there are sufficient current BB owners that in theory if they buy the Z10 and told their friends how good it is then perhaps such influences might have had a positive effect. The trouble here (Canada) is that BB owners are not rushing out to buy the Z10. They are on contract or are happy with their legacy device. Word of mouth needs to reach a critical mass before the "idea" reaches a boiling point - hot enough for the idea to catch on. In the USA the BB pot will be simmering for a long time.

    Consumers are heavily influenced by the media. In the USA the media is overwhelmingly supportive of Apple, Google and Microsoft. The media is heavily influenced by the phone's specs rather than the OS. It reminds me of my youth when cars were rated solely on their horsepower and image.

    Google Trends is a "interest barometer" . Look up "Blackberry z10" over 30 days and it appears that interest has peaked. Look up "Blackberry Q10" and you will find that interest in the QWERTY device has consistently lagged behind the all touch model. Perceptions can change and BB is not stuck but to suggest that the Z10 is a game changer in the USA is probably incorrect.

    The problem with Crackberries in general is their expectations are just too high. If BB sells 15,000,000 BB10 devices at a profit in 2014 FP ... is that a bad result ??
    Last edited by Bbnivende; 04-05-13 at 10:19 AM.
    matthewriedle likes this.
    04-05-13 09:18 AM
  19. Komoto's Avatar
    400-500K per week would be amazing, but I don't think it would be a consistent sell-through rate for the year - BlackBerry diehards are sure to boost sales in the initial week or so. Hopefully we see the effects of the increased marketing budget ramping up so that the Z10 and Q10 make it into the hands and minds of mainstream consumers.
    I also thought this initially, but after some additional thought i realised that the US in general is very anti BBRY at the moment, so if they can win over the haters it would be easier to maintain these figures. This is in contrast to an APPL product where everyone wants it at the beginning. Thoughts.... maybe i am being overly optimistic
    04-05-13 09:52 AM

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