[anon(6038817)]

I recently discovered the Kantar Worldpanel visualization of Smartphone OS Market Share (Smartphone OS market share - Kantar Worldpanel ComTech).

It's great for seeing how things looked at any given point in time, but it's not so great if you want to see trends over time.

So, being a data analyst by profession, I manually scraped the data from their viz (hand-entered the numbers into an Excel sheet) and used Tableau to create this viz:

https://public.tableausoftware.com/p...eOSMarketShare

I know it doesn't show markets like Indonesia or India where BlackBerry may still have a decent chunk of market share, but just look at the dominance of Android. It's really quite daunting when you look at it this way. Even iOS has lost some traction.

But look at Windows Phone! It's somehow managed to grow a teeny bit.

What do you think? Will BlackBerry be able to reclaim market share in any of these countries? Or will they remain a niche player from here on out?

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

I recently discovered the Kantar Worldpanel visualization of Smartphone OS Market Share (Smartphone OS market share - Kantar Worldpanel ComTech).

It's great for seeing how things looked at any given point in time, but it's not so great if you want to see trends over time.

So, being a data analyst by profession, I manually scraped the data from their viz (hand-entered the numbers into an Excel sheet) and used Tableau to create this viz:

https://public.tableausoftware.com/p...eOSMarketShare

I know it doesn't show markets like Indonesia or India where BlackBerry may still have a decent chunk of market share, but just look at the dominance of Android. It's really quite daunting when you look at it this way. Even iOS has lost some traction.

But look at Windows Phone! It's somehow managed to grow a teeny bit.

What do you think? Will BlackBerry be able to reclaim market share in any of these countries? Or will they remain a niche player from here on out?

Somewhere in articles about the Z3 launch they indicated that India was around 2% and Indonesia was less than 13%... not sure there is anywhere that BlackBerry has a decent chunk of the market in new sales anymore. Not sure what the used market is like in these countries or if anyone bothers with trying to guesstimate those numbers - right now for BlackBerry used is almost as good as new if it's a BIS device.

Do I see that changing.... not in the near future. Based on hardware, prices, lack of app support, the turn to Amazon, current product lineup, limited funds for marketing, limited support from carriers...... niche is the best they can do, if they can stake on out and hold on to it.

Right now the biggest portion of their niche is BlackBerry collectors who need one or more of each device.... thus the reasoning behind the Passport. PT Barnum comes to mind.

[BroncoVAL]

I recently discovered the Kantar Worldpanel visualization of Smartphone OS Market Share (Smartphone OS market share - Kantar Worldpanel ComTech).

It's great for seeing how things looked at any given point in time, but it's not so great if you want to see trends over time.

So, being a data analyst by profession, I manually scraped the data from their viz (hand-entered the numbers into an Excel sheet) and used Tableau to create this viz:

https://public.tableausoftware.com/p...eOSMarketShare

I know it doesn't show markets like Indonesia or India where BlackBerry may still have a decent chunk of market share, but just look at the dominance of Android. It's really quite daunting when you look at it this way. Even iOS has lost some traction.

But look at Windows Phone! It's somehow managed to grow a teeny bit.

What do you think? Will BlackBerry be able to reclaim market share in any of these countries? Or will they remain a niche player from here on out?

First of all thanks for that graphic view!
Windows mobile is not a threat for Blackberry, i think Blackberry should logically take the 3rd place (far far away from iOS and Android), though it may take some time (let's have a look in the end of 2015...i know it's a long time to wait but the "Passport effect" should take more than one year: people seeing it, appreciating, having a try with BB10/11 next iteration etc.)
What makes me particularly optimistic about Blackberry hypothetic growth is that countries like France, Italy, Germany and Spain where Android largely dominates (more than 60% even an almost 86% in Spain!!!) are likely to appreciate the Android compatibility of BB10 with Amazon's deal.
I would expect a significant growth for BB10 devices in Europe in the few months to come after the Passport and Classic go on the market.
Mexico (19.1%) and the south american market (Argentina 15.9%) should see a benefit too (always depending on price range though)
Like i thought last year when i tried for the first time a BB10, if Blackberry didn't die when it was still stuck with its BB7 OS then with such a good operative system like BB10 they can only do better.
Now that they seem to propose a good range of devices (Classic for legacy users, Z for the full-touch users) and they caught the public attention with the Passport, i can only be more optimistic about their coming back.

[kbz1960]

I disagree. WP is a threat.

[BroncoVAL]

I disagree. WP is a threat.

it's just how i feel, i can be wrong obviously.
But Blackberry does propose alternative choice to the full touch devices (even if they also have the Z line in catalogue) so i think in a short/long term Blackberry should differentiate easily to windows market.
Another thing that is a personal view as it's what i experience from time to time: whenever i meet someone who used to sport a Blackberry they always regret it and are easily prone to try a BB10 device.
When i talk with a windows mobile person, he/she usually tells me "it works fine" but they doesn't go further, there's no factor that seems to be a must-have OS and it happens quite often that they declare to change OS with their next device. (there again it's only my experience )
Time will tell, but with no surprise from Nokia/Windows Mobile i can't see them take the 3rd place in the long run (they are struggling like Blackberry and they are on the market since 2000 and never were on the innovation side, i mean they took the iphone slap in plain face too, don't seem to have a clear strategy as the android phone were planned, done and ditched in a few months.
Just having a look at their market share in the US if they don't come with a differentiator factor (Blackberry's one is the physical keyboard and Android compatibility + security focus) i can't see why someone would prefer a Windows Mobile smartphone?

[Mr. Marco]

it's just how i feel, i can be wrong obviously.
But Blackberry does propose alternative choice to the full touch devices (even if they also have the Z line in catalogue) so i think in a short/long term Blackberry should differentiate easily to windows market.
Another thing that is a personal view as it's what i experience from time to time: whenever i meet someone who used to sport a Blackberry they always regret it and are easily prone to try a BB10 device.
When i talk with a windows mobile person, he/she usually tells me "it works fine" but they doesn't go further, there's no factor that seems to be a must-have OS and it happens quite often that they declare to change OS with their next device. (there again it's only my experience )
Time will tell, but with no surprise from Nokia/Windows Mobile i can't see them take the 3rd place in the long run (they are struggling like Blackberry and they are on the market since 2000 and never were on the innovation side, i mean they took the iphone slap in plain face too, don't seem to have a clear strategy as the android phone were planned, done and ditched in a few months.
Just having a look at their market share in the US if they don't come with a differentiator factor (Blackberry's one is the physical keyboard and Android compatibility + security focus) i can't see why someone would prefer a Windows Mobile smartphone?

You know what all yearly data points to in the mobile industry? Take a look the growth trend to 2007 and then the steep decline since 2008. iPhone was release in the middle of 2007. Then sprinkle on top of that the growth of Android from 2009 forward. Apple literally walked onto the scene and just took away an entire industry from companies that were major players pre 2007.

Also I think the fact that iPhone was locked into AT&T for so long somewhat held things at bay. Once iPhone landed on Verizon it was game over.

[BroncoVAL]

You know what all yearly data points to in the mobile industry? Take a look the growth trend to 2007 and then the steep decline since 2008. iPhone was release in the middle of 2007. Then sprinkle on top of that the growth of Android from 2009 forward. Apple literally walked onto the scene and just took away an entire industry from companies that were major players pre 2007.

Also I think the fact that iPhone was locked into AT&T for so long somewhat held things at bay. Once iPhone landed on Verizon it was game over.

of course i know Apple walked on everybody and not only in the USA. (and Windows reacted at least as slow as Blackberry did to the iphone revolution)
It still remains that i can't see how Windows mobile will differentiate from other OSs, what would make them attractive to the point a costumer would leave Android or iphone to buy a Windows Mobile device?
At least Blackberry has an history, a lot of users that used to be very happy with their device, the only thing that Windows does better is the camera and that's a Nokia quality that they bought with the company.
Other than that i can't see a coherent strategy for Windows Mobile, Chen's politic looks far better from my point of view and in the long run i'd bet on Blackberry over Windows Mobile.
But that's only my point of view (and i used to be an iphone user for 6 years, never was a Blackberry guy even before)

[TGR1]

of course i know Apple walked on everybody and not only in the USA. (and Windows reacted at least as slow as Blackberry did to the iphone revolution)
It still remains that i can't see how Windows mobile will differentiate from other OSs, what would make them attractive to the point a costumer would leave Android or iphone to buy a Windows Mobile device?
At least Blackberry has an history, a lot of users that used to be very happy with their device, the only thing that Windows does better is the camera and that's a Nokia quality that they bought with the company.
Other than that i can't see a coherent strategy for Windows Mobile, Chen's politic looks far better from my point of view and in the long run i'd bet on Blackberry over Windows Mobile.
But that's only my point of view (and i used to be an iphone user for 6 years, never was a Blackberry guy even before)

MS is a formidable competitor: it has considerable experience playing the long game, a lot of resources, Azure to support cloud services (the latter seems to be really padding their revenue), history in both mobile and conventional computing, and deep hooks in enterprise. The surprise is that they aren't doing better than they are but it seems internal dysfunction is one of MS's more notable weaknesses and affects their ability to really deliver on all fronts.

[anon(6038817)]

I just updated the viz with data through July 2014.



Here's the link if you want to interact with it: https://public.tableausoftware.com/v...owVizHome=no#1